APPROACHES TO CONSULTATION APPENDIX 3

Steering Committee

Task Force

Technical Working Groups

Focus Groups

Stakeholder Groups included in Consultation Process

Central Level Consultations

MOEYS Line Departments

Finance

Planning Personnel Inspectorate

TTD

PRD

PDH

GSED Examinations

PED Information and ASEAN Affairs

Provincial Level Consultations

POE

PTTC / RTTC

District Level Consultations

DOE

Project Level Consultations

CESSP

CBE

ESDPII ISMEC

Development Partner Consultations

World Bank

USAID

JICA

UNICEF

EU

Institution Level Consultations

NIE / TTCs

Schools -Primary -LSS

-USS

Field visits to relevant institutions

NIE

PTTCs/RTTCs Schools

POE

DOE

Consultation Process

Analysis and Review Phase

1st National Workshop

Core Output List of Proposed Interventions

Project Reports

Inception Report

Interim Report

Consultant Reports

Project Design

2nd National Workshop

Core Output

DMF Matrix

Project Reports

Draft Feasibility Report

Final Feasibility Report

Consultant Reports

Demand for additional teachers is projected for the lower secondary and upper secondary levels in the Kingdom of Cambodia for the 2007-2015 period. Although the focus is on lower secondary and upper secondary levels, the projections for primary levels will also be presented due to its transitional features.

Enhancing education quality requires a set of multi-faceted and inter-related interventions. These include, among other things, efficiency and timeliness of decision-making, teacher training and re-training, remuneration system, curriculum development and textbook provision, valid and reliable assessment of the achievement of students and the performance of schools, provision of good and well-supported computer systems to enhance learning and teaching programmes and infrastructure (such as school buildings and classrooms, furniture, teaching aids, and an efficient and effective mechanism for collecting data). In this context, the current projections are intended to serve as a planning tool during the design phase of the Project to improve education quality in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It is important that the projections be updated when the assumptions vary from those used in the current projections.

Due to the fact that no allocation (time and budget) was available to gather primary data, the current projections have been derived from available secondary data sets, including:

Education Statistics and Indicators for School Years 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 published by the EMIS Centre, MOEYS' Department of Planning; Master Plan to Implement the Policy for Curriculum Development 2005-2009; Education Strategic Plan 2006 -2010; Education for All (EFA) 2003 - 2015; and Education Sector Support Program (ESSP) 2006-2010.

These projections were also validated via discussions with POE & DOE staff, and school site observations in Takeo and Kompong Chhnang Provinces. The projection method was also discussed and benefited from works carried out recently by the provincial staff planning and deployment specialists of the ADB-financed ESDP II 20

Reviews of different data sets mentioned above indicated that there is a great degree of inconsistency, and projections vary considerably. For example, the enrolment projections in EFA, ESP document and the Master Plan differ in the range of minus 260,000 to plus 147,000 pupils during the period 2006-2010. From the PPTA team's perspectives, it is obvious that the underlying purposes and assumptions produce different sets of figures. But it is essential that the assumptions be realistic.

In practice, projections of the demand for teachers can be based on a great number of variables, not solely on enrolment projections. In the current projections, we project teacher demand based on projected annual enrolment by educational levels, target pupil - class ratio (PCR), attrition rate, teacher turnover rate 21, and teacher retirement rate. Specific quantitative and qualitative assumptions are attached to relevant tables in the following sections.

20 Mr. Rod Williams and Mr. Prak Polla are highly appreciated for their generous sharing of views.

21 The teacher turnover rate takes into account the shortfall of teaching staff based on number of teacher months of sickness, maternal leave, unpaid leave for private reasons, as well as deaths during any of the school year in the examined period.

As far as the elective subject system for Grade 11 and 12 is concerned, it would be practical to project teacher demand on a subject basis. However, it is not possible due to the uncertainty what the system will bring about when it comes to actual implementation. It is important to note that there will be a shortfall of teachers for high-demand subjects but it is not possible to plan well ahead (at least in the area of teacher training) due to the demand-ofchoices uncertainty. Also, the scale of upper secondary schools in Cambodia is not large enough to be able to achieve synergies (i.e., economies of scale) in teacher capacity utilization and other resources as it may be the case in other places. Best practice shows the good things that the elective subject system does to the national economy, but the application of this system needs two pre-conditions: (i) scale of schools large enough to achieve synergies; and (ii) a user willingness to pay strong enough to recover at least operating costs. Both pre-conditions are not in existence in Cambodia and will take time for them to be established such that the elective subject system works in a sustainable manner. In this regard, the elective subject system for Grade 11-12 is not resource efficient in the short term and this policy issue may need to be revised.

Based on the assumptions as mentioned above, 'conservative' projections are produced and presented in Tables 1-3 and details can be found in Annexe 1 and 2.

As indicated in Table 1, at the primary education level, total teachers needed for the period from now to 2015 will be 30,384 primary teachers, if the all assumptions hold and other things being constant. In particular, the total new primary teachers needed are broken down as follows: 2,346 teachers for 2006/07, 1,462 teachers for 2007/08, 2,401 teachers for 2008/09, 3,891 teachers for 2009/10, 4,309 teachers for 2010/11, 4,423 teachers for 2011/12, 4,121 teachers for 2012/13, 3,830 teachers for 2013/14, and 3,600 teachers for 2014/15.

\a Enrolment figures are derived from various prevailing policy documents

\b Use actual figures as of year end 2006

\c No of primary school teachers by year end 2006 was 50,378

\d Teacher Turnover Rate (sickness, maternal, unpaid leave, and deaths) is similar to the one used for primary schools by the Department of Planning

\e Teacher retirement rate is similar to the one used for primary schools by the Department of Planning

LSS teacher projections are produced in two scenarios: (i) Scenario 1 - Based on pupil - class ratio and weekly teaching hours per teacher; and (ii) Scenario 2 - Based on staff norms. The two scenarios yield different results. Scenario 1 indicates a total teacher demand of 43,217 and scenario 2 a total teacher demand of 39,797. Mean variance between the two scenarios is 380 or just less than 1% of the total projected number of teachers in any of the two scenarios. In this regard, averaging of the projected figures in both scenarios would make the projections LSS teacher demand more precise.

Table 2 presents the projected demand for teachers at the lower secondary school level. It indicates a total shortfall of 41,507 lower secondary teachers from 2007 up to 2015. Annual additional LSS teacher demand is broken down as follows: 8,428 teachers for 2006/07, 4,880 teachers for 2007/08, 2,292 teachers for 2008/09, 2,125 teachers for 2009/10, 2,106 teachers for 2010/11, 3,899 teachers for 2011/12, 5,518 teachers for 2012/13, 6,313 teachers for 2013/14, and 5,947 teachers for 2014/15.

Scenario 1 - Based on pupil - class ratio and weekly teaching hours per teacher

Scenario 1 - Based on staff norms

USS teacher projections are produced in two scenarios: (i) Scenario 1 - Based on pupilclass ratio and weekly teaching hours per teacher; and (ii) Scenario 1 - Based on staff norms. The two scenarios yield different result. Scenario 1 indicates a total teacher demand of 37,272 and scenario 2 a total teacher demand of 34,907. Mean variance between the two scenarios is 263 or just less than 0.8% of the total projected number of teachers in any of the two scenarios. Again, averaging of the projected figures in both scenarios would make the projections of USS teacher demand more precise.

Table 3 outlines the projected demand for teachers at the upper secondary school level. It indicates a total shortfall of 36,090 upper secondary teachers from 2007 up to 2015. Annual additional LSS teacher demand is broken down as follows: 4,763 teachers for 2006/07, 2,328 teachers for 2007/08, 2,913 teachers for 2008/09, 3,748 teachers for 2009/10, 4,337 teachers for 2010/11, 3,814 teachers for 2011/12, 3,852 teachers for 2012/13, 4,098 teachers for 2013/14, and 6,237 teachers for 2014/15.

Scenario 1 - Based on pupil - class ratio and weekly teaching hours per teacher

Scenario 1 - Based on staff norms

Combined LSS - USS Teacher Demand Projections

Teacher demand projections for both lower and upper secondary school levels are presented in Table 4. Summing up the projected demand in the lower and upper secondary school levels produces an aggregate shortfall of 77,596 secondary school teachers from 2007 to 2015. The annual additional secondary teachers required are as follows: 13,190 teachers for 2006/07, 7,208 teachers for 2007/08, 5,205 teachers for 2008/09, 5,873 teachers for 2009/10, 6,442 teachers for 2010/11, 7,714 teachers for 2011/12, 9,370 teachers for 2012/13, 10,410 teachers for 2013/14, and 12,184 teachers for 2014/15.

Scenario 1 - Based on pupil - class ratio and weekly teaching hours per teacher

Scenario 1 - Based on staff norms

Annex 2 - USS Teacher Demand Projections – Detailed

Annex Table 2.1 - USS Enrolment Projections

\a Enrolment figures are based on various prevailing policy documents

Annex Table 2.2Scenario 1USS Teacher Demand Projections based on a Number of USS teachers by year-end 2006 was 6,941 \b Attrition rate of 1.08% includes deaths and job terminations

Use actual figure

Table 2.3Scenario 2USS Teacher Demand Projections

\a Based on the new curriculum policy, 1.955 teachers per class for Grade 10

Based on the new curriculum policy, 2.067 teachers per class for Grade 11 and 12

Number of USS teachers by year-end 2006 was 6,941

ORGANISATIONAL CHART OF THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, YOUTH AND SPORT

ADB (2006) Kingdom of Cambodia: preparing the education quality improvement project Technical Assistance Report (Project Number 38559) August

Cambodian Basic Education Project (2004) Report on the collection of baseline and performance data for the Cambodian basic education project August

Cambodian Basic Education Project (2006) Report on capital equipment grants to teacher training centres/provincial offices of education February

Cambodian Basic Education Project (2004) Report on the collection of baseline and performance data for the Cambodian basic education project August

CESSP (2006) Summary of Baseline Assessment Results Phnom Penh September

CESSP (2006) Student Achievement and Education Policy: Results from the Grade Three Assessment October

MOEYS (1994) Baseline Assessment of Student Achievement in Khmer and Mathematics in the Primary Schools Phase 2 Phnom Penh October

MOEYS (1995) Baseline Assessment of Student Achievement in Khmer and Mathematics in the Primary Schools Phase 3 Phnom Penh April

MOEYS (1996) Baseline Assessment of Pupil Achievement in Khmer and Mathematics in the Primary Schools Phase 2 Phnom Penh August

MOEYS (2002) Impact Study Phase 3: Grade Three Implementation Study 2001 Phnom Penh

MOEYS (2004) Policy for curriculum development 2005-2009 December

MOEYS (2004) Policy and strategies on information and communication technology in education in Cambodia Phnom Penh December

MOEYS (2004) Policy for curriculum development 2005-2009 December

MOEYS (2005) Education sector support program 2006-2010 Phnom Penh December

MOEYS (2005) Education sector performance report Phnom Penh December

MOEYS (2005) Education strategic plan 2006-2010 Phnom Penh December

MOEYS (2006) Introduction to Basic Education Curriculum Standards Phnom Penh

September

MOEYS (2006) Gender mainstreaming strategy in education 2006-2010 October

MOEYS (2006) Gender policy November

MOEYS (2006) Master Plan on the implementation of policy for curriculum development

2005-09

MOEYS (2006) Quality standards and indicators for gender mainstreaming in education

October

MOEYS/UNICEF (2005) Expanded basic education programme (EBEP) (Phase 11) 20062010 Phnom Penh October

RGC (2003) Education for all 2003-2015 national plan Phnom Penh May

RGC (2004) Rectangular strategy for growth, employment, equity and efficiency in Cambodia

Phnom Penh

RGC (2005) National strategic development plan Phnom Penh January

RGC (2005) Strategic framework for decentralisation and deconcentration reforms Phnom Penh

RGC (2006) Policy on Life Skills Education Phnom Penh August

World Bank (2005) Cambodia education sector support project PAD Report No.

29921-KH March 2005