Panel discussion | Super-sized super: Where to now on infrastructure?

► Deanne Stewart, Chief Executive Officer, Aware Super ► Nik Kemp, Head of Infrastructure, AustralianSuper ► Paul Richards, Head of Resources, Energy and Infrastructure, ANZ

► Kip Fitzsimon, Partner, Sector Leader Infrastructure and Transport, Allens

Kip Fitzsimon (KF): Thanks to all our panel members for joining us today. I would like to acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of the land on which we are gathered today, and I pay my respect to elders, past and present.

Given that this session is called ‘Super-sized super’, I guess we should start with that. It’s probably a question for Deanne and Nik. We know that superannuation is going to increase to 12 per cent by 2025. Looking at deal flow and opportunities, Sydney Airport comes to mind; is there anything that’s too big? Deanne, I might hand to you first.

Deanne Stewart (DS): To answer that question, it’s probably worth stepping back and considering the context of what’s going on in the superannuation industry. It is currently around $3.5 trillion now, and it’s going to $10 trillion. If you think about that order of magnitude and what’s happening inside the big superannuation funds, you’re seeing a lot of consolidation in the industry. You’re seeing the big funds get bigger. Their ability to absorb large-scale infrastructure is actually increasing every day. It is hard to say what is too big– whether that be standalone or in consortiums – but certainly, super funds’ abilities to absorb large-scale infrastructure deals is increasing daily.

There are pretty huge trends. When you go back to the basics of superannuation, we’re there to provide the best possible retirement income for our members. That’s where infrastructure plays such a sweet role inside the portfolio of super funds, because, traditionally, and I think into the future, it will have a really good long-term focus that matches the types of liabilities, smoothing from a volatility perspective, and really good diversification. So, I see super funds actually continuing to pour more money into infrastructure and I see it as a real focus within their portfolios.

KF: Nik, what about you? What are you seeing?

Nik Kemp (NK): Certainly the size of transactions has grown. It was only 10 years ago that if you are writing a $5-billion check for a port, it was seen as a very big transaction. Now, you look at Sydney Airport, which is north of $20 billion, and I think there would’ve been more capital to be able to fund that sort of transaction if it had been required. So, there is a system that’s growing; the opportunities are growing, as well. And I think, going forward, you’ll keep seeing this occurring more and more, which actually just creates more and more opportunity for private capital to get involved.

KF: Yes, it’s very exciting. What does this mean for the banks, Paul?

Paul Richards (PR): I think it means a lot of opportunity for the banks to arrange and provide the debt capital that’s going to be required to actually finance these projects. I agree with Nik that ticket sizes are getting bigger, but I don’t think anything is too big these days.

I might share a little bit about where we’re seeing the opportunity from a sector perspective. Definitely the energy transition is obviously an enormous opportunity, whether it’s around our renewables generation, or transmission and distribution. At ANZ, we’re also following things like heavy charging stations, carbon capture and storage, and eventually, at some stage, hydrogen, perhaps. We’re also seeing banks allocate really large capital pools for this type of business, as well. Businesses are wanting to align their lending portfolios with Paris objectives, as they support their own customers’ decarbonisation strategies.

Digital infrastructure was talked about earlier: different modes of working and this mega trend around digitisation more broadly. So, I think there’ll be a lot of opportunity in social infrastructure: housing and health care, and transportation infrastructure, including rail. And if that’s not enough domestically, there’s obviously a lot of opportunity offshore, and this industry has been a real pioneer in exporting commercial models and innovating around infrastructure solutions.

KF: As we are emerging from the pandemic, what lessons will you carry forward in your respective organisations? Has the pandemic provided any upside or opportunities for you? I might start with you, Nik.

NK: At the start of the pandemic, we were looking at a number of transactions offshore. My first reaction when everyone got sent home was to wonder how we were going to complete this support transaction in the United Kingdom. How were we going to do this toll road in the United States, given we were all locked down? Having moved through the pandemic, we’ve obviously done those transactions, and we’ve done telco opportunities in South America and other opportunities here in Australia. I was surprised that we were able to do transactions while locked down; but there’s one huge missing ingredient. It’s understanding the culture and the values of the people in the business that you’re actually investing in. That is the thing that is so hard to replicate. It’s so hard to understand actually how good the management in these businesses is. And I think that while the whole transactional side is very replicable, the ability to understand what a business is about is really hard to do from home.

KF: Deanne, are you seeing a similar thing? Is that your perspective or are there any good silver linings?

DS: It’s hard to talk about the pandemic, actually, without touching on the human side. While there’s been devastation on the one hand, certainly the silver lining for me is the degree of flexibility that has now really become so much more commonplace in organisations. The reason I bring that up is that it’s great for both women and men, quite frankly, and the family unit. But, interestingly, we’ve been able to attract

a lot more female talent into our infrastructure team with the huge degree of flexibility that’s being offered. So, I bring that up because I do think that has dynamics and I actually think it requires a really different sort of leadership style – a leadership style that can work with someone who is not present right in front of you, and with an ability to inspire. So, I do start with the human side for us, through the pandemic.

We’ve literally doubled in size post a few mergers. So, pre-COVID, we were about $70 billion; now, we’re currently about $150 billion. So, the world has certainly opened up for us in terms of what we’ve looked at and particularly on infrastructure. I would say the pandemic itself actually highlighted trends that were already there, and it’s really exposed them. Paul, you were mentioning digital infrastructure – that is huge and has really accelerated through this period of time. And you are definitely seeing the super funds, like Aware Super, being really interested in that. We’ve just taken Vocus private together with Macquarie, as an example. But secondly – and this is the intersection of property and infrastructure in the real-assets world – we’ve owned Sydney Metro Airport, and the Camden and Bankstown airports. Through the pandemic, how you actually use some of your infrastructure, like our airports, to really build out the industrial side really played well for us and for our members. While not necessarily about the pandemic, I think you’ll see increased focus in agritech through this period, too, and certainly Ukraine and what’s going on there.

KF: That’s a really interesting point. Paul, what about for ANZ? Any lessons learnt or opportunities you can take forward?

PR: I like to think we were supporting flexible working before the pandemic, but certainly the pandemic has really entrenched it at ANZ. A recent staff survey really highlighted flexible working as something that’s really key to driving overall engagement. I think it’s a point of differentiation as an employer, but at the end of the day this is a people business. So, that flexibility needs to be balanced with face time with clients and colleagues.

We are on a bit of a ‘return to office’ push at the moment. I think that’s really important for a few reasons. The learning and development of junior staff and new joiners is really important; it’s essential for problem-solving and for new ideas, which is really important for this sector and also for innovating. I think it’s about finding that right balance, and there’s nothing like getting out and visiting customers and being on site, particularly for projects that are under development or in construction. Obviously, that’s having an impact on how we think about transportation networks and how our cities are designed, and then obviously the digital infrastructure that’ll be required to sit underneath all of that.

KF: Yeah, I think that human connection point is something that all organisations are struggling with. There are no rules around how strongly you can encourage your employees to come back. So, it’s certainly something I’m sure everyone in this room can relate to. I want to talk about inflation and interest rates; we know they’re heading north. Infrastructure’s inflation link revenues provide some protection, compared to other asset classes. Are you seeing an uptick in interest in infrastructure as a defensive position? I’m assuming yes is the answer to that and, if it is, what particular asset classes are you seeing where there’s a higher degree of inflation-proofing? Deanne, I might open that one to you.

DS: Yes, it’s unprecedented, what we’ve just observed with the five interest rate rises in a row – four of them being 50 basis points. We have not seen this here in Australia, so that’s been quite an incredible shift in a really short period of time. On one hand, that obviously impacts the discount rate, but on the other there are some really natural elements to infrastructure that makes it a really attractive asset class right now. You mentioned the inflation hedge element in many of our infrastructure assets, so I’ll come onto where we’ve really benefited from that. Secondly, that smoothing from the consistency of returns really helps as a diversification to, say, our equity side. So, it’s definitely really attractive and even more so through this type of period of time, even with the higher discount rates.

What we’re seeing in the types of sectors that we’re really interested in is they’ve got those two features. We’ve been a heavy investor in registries that have a nice builtin inflation hedge. We are a part owner of the NSW Land Registry and we own the Victorian land registry. We’ve just partnered with Macquarie on taking VicRoads, together with the Victorian Government. They’re really great assets that have really long-term returns, but are hedge-based as a type

of asset class. Digital infrastructure is another one we feel is very positive through that period of time. So, there are a couple of examples.

KF: Great examples. Nik, what about you? Any particular asset classes?

NK: In the last 12 months, we have invested a lot in digital and telecommunications. We’ve invested in Australia Tower Network and Axicom and, more recently, AnyHub. So, we think that thematic around fibre and towers is still very strong. If you look at the Australian fibre network, it’s actually more than 20 years old and it’s getting very close to capacity. So, there’s a huge amount of work to do and a huge amount of money that needs to be spent in that sector. In terms of the continual interest in infrastructure, it is strong and it is an inflation hedge, but the one thing that we are a bit cautious on is the fact that the world is probably heading into a downturn, and probably a recession. When you come out of a recession, you want as much money as you can to invest into it. And so trying to make sure you’re getting that balance right between deploying into it and making the most of some of the opportunities today versus the opportunities that are probably going to come around in 12 months’ time is a fine balance.

KF: Paul, what are you seeing in the debt markets?

PR: Look, first I’m going to agree here from a bank and a debt investor perspective. Infrastructure remains a really attractive asset class, notwithstanding inflation interest rates. Essential assets, assets that have these nice long-term profiles, are not exposed to cycles like you see in other parts of my resources and energy portfolio. And infrastructure owners are typically quite prudent capital managers, so that’s a really great starting point. From a debt perspective, interest rates are getting higher, so infrastructure owners are facing higher interest rates on the debt component. But there’s still plenty of liquidity both domestically and offshore, albeit with a little bit of uncertainty and volatility in the capital markets with the geopolitical situation and war in the Ukraine.

What we’re seeing among our customers is a real focused and disciplined approach to debt management, and they’re being quite proactive in that regard. Customers are bringing forward refinancings of debt facilities, sometimes 12 months ahead of time. They are really conscious of putting in place really diversified funding programs across a mix of bank loans in capital markets, domestic and offshore, and public and private. Second, we’re seeing and want to ensure an investment-grade credit profile just to ensure ongoing access to debt, right through the credit cycle. And third, we are seeing a more prudent approach to interest rate risk management. So, we are looking at fixed-rate debt solutions and/or risk interest rate hedging. Without question, there is volatility and capital markets.

The last six months has been a good time for the banks, but I think the capital markets will come back. Our more sophisticated infrastructure owners are readying themselves for when those markets open, which I think is quite important. On inflation, from a bank and a portfolio point of view, it’s underlining the importance of having a diversified portfolio of different types of assets for us across resources, energy, infrastructure, risk profiles, patronage, some regulated profiles, and other assets with fixed Power Purchase Agreements and offtake. So, that diversification is quite important for us.

KF: I guess the role of super is a pretty critical one. And the Federal Treasurer has recently come out saying there’s a big role for you to play in delivering the infrastructure pipeline. I think we all are looking at the pipeline quite differently to how we have in the past five to seven years; it’s changing. What that looks like is very different with the energy transition, but also in areas such as housing and others. How do you see the role of the super sector in delivering on that, particularly within energy and housing? Nik?

NK: Deanne touched on it before, but it’s really important to remember that the number one focus of superannuation funds should be their members and trying to generate the best possible outcomes for people in retirement. That should be absolutely number one. Having said that, we invested $7 billion last year into Australian infrastructure. So, there is a way that you are able to help your members, while at the same time doing things that are going to be great for the community and the economy more broadly. When you have 2.9 million members, that’s actually a good portion of Australia. So, there is this nice way to benefit them in retirement, but also try to help them today. Our focus, without doubt, is always on retirement.

DS: I would say there’s been a lot of media attention on this recently, and having been in the room listening to the Treasurer as he said it, I think there’s a degree of him having been misquoted. I definitely agree with Nik; we are all really clear that the number one goal for super funds is to get the best possible retirement outcomes for our members, but it’s not mutually exclusive with participating in the energy transition and in housing. In fact, there’ve been two really strong investment theses that we’ve had for a very long period of time. We’ve been

investing in the energy transition – in renewables, and we’ve become a cornerstone investor in a pumped hydro business and in batteries. We’ve got a real role to play in this energy transition. It’s the biggest game in town over the next couple of decades, for sure. So, we are working with the Government constructively on the role super funds could play, and how to participate in a funding sense. That is what they’re trying to work out – how do you actually be a systems thinker and get the funding model so that big capital players can provide some of the capital needed.

Housing has been a huge area of focus for us, too. We call it the living sector, and we think build-to-rent is very nascent here in Australia – it has huge room for growth, given the housing crisis, retirement and our aging population. So, there’s a lot we’re already investing; we have more than $1.5 billion in our pipeline for build-to-rent, for example. It’s really pleasing to hear that the Government is focused on those sectors. Then it’s working out what is the right intersection point between how the Government can support and what the role of big capital is. But we are, and I state again, very clear that the number one goal is to get really good returns for our members.

KF: Touching on the energy transition, we’ve got the Federal Government currently considering legislation around how we actually put targets on our emissions. What do you want to see to ensure the transition is orderly and promotes investment? Are there any risks on the horizon, and how are you managing those within your own organisations? I might open to you, Paul.

PR: Putting aside what people might think about the target itself and 43 per cent, we think it’s been positive because it does provide that regulatory certainty or roadmap in a world that has largely seen voluntary initiatives so far. We’ve seen a lot of our customers put in place really ambitious emission reductions, energy transitions and decarbonisation strategies. But it’s great that we’ve got that roadmap or that framework at a government level now. I think that’s a really important piece. Now it’s all about the execution, which is an enormous challenge, without question.

I’m going to talk about the trilemma of decarbonisation, security instability and affordability. I’m not sure that there’s a mathematical equation to solve that one. So, it is super tricky. We still see the biggest part of the emissions challenge as the greening of the energy sector. That’s going to require enormous coordination, not only domestically, but nationally. I was recently in Canberra for Minerals Week and there was a lot of conversation there about the quantum of investment that’s required – $4 trillion worth of investment just to produce copper for the wind turbines; silver and zinc for solar panels; and lithium, nickel, and cobalt for batteries. That’s quite a task, let alone our reliance on China around the processing of these minerals and their dominance when it comes to the production of solar panels. Then you’ve got this ever-present geopolitical overlay. That potentially represents an opportunity for Australia, as well. Everybody wants to decarbonise, so we’re competing globally for these suppliers all at the same time. That supply chain issue or challenge is a real one. The other critical ingredient that’s been spoken about is the skilled labour shortage. We would like to see policies that address, head on, those challenges and opportunities around supply chains and skilled labour.

KF: It’s such a challenge, isn’t it? It’s not a matter of flicking off a switch and turning on another one. What does 43 per cent look like and mean for your organisation? Are there any risks that you are seeing?

NK: I was stunned when I read Infrastructure Partnerships Australia’s recent pipeline analysis that $268 billion of energy projects are in the pipeline. The first thing I thought was, ‘How is that going to be built?’

KF: Do you know where we can get that type of money?

NK: The money’s actually less of a concern – it is actually getting people out to build it. That will be that the real challenge. We have a huge map that’s got every bit of the energy chain, and it’s just got bits and bobs everywhere. You need to make sure this whole map moves along together. Historically, it’s been transitioned; that’s been really hard. Now some of the state governments are doing what they can to try to uplift that. But if you go through this map in different parts, whether it’s hydrogen or renewables or waste to energy, every one of them relies on something else to make it work. Just getting the coordination to make it all work is going to be so important.

KF: Even at that grassroots level, we’ve already got a construction industry that’s saying it’s on its knees because of the pipeline that’s currently in front of them in terms of delivery. So, it’s a huge task. Deanne, what about for you?

DS: There are massive opportunities and massive risks that lie ahead. The order of magnitude is staggering; when you think about it, we really are only at about 25 per cent in renewables and we need to get to 80 per cent by 2030. So, the order of magnitude is huge when you think about the components of it, whether it be the renewable side, transmission or the 10,000 kilometres of grid that needs to be built. Then there is the actual storage components or carbon capture, and then all the suppliers and all the resourcing. I think it was fantastic to see the legislation go through, but it’s almost like now it really begins in earnest. You really need systems thinkers here, because joining all the dots and getting it done in a really orderly way with supply chain issues, people issues, and talent issues, makes this absolutely core.

The systems thinking – the coordination at federal and state level, and then from a corporation and capital level – is immense. And then how the funding models actually get structured requires huge capital up front, with huge uncertainty.

Those sorts of funding models are really critical; but so, too, is bringing the community along, particularly those four really big regions that are affected, and how to really bring the community along and make sure you’ve got the skills and new jobs in place. That’s a mammoth asset.

KF: Yes, it is, and even the skills gap at the level of systems thinking is a gap in this Australian market, on the government side and the private side, so it’s a huge challenge. Deanne, Your Future, Your Super reforms will be reviewed by Treasury after the second-round super performance tests are complete. What do you hope to see come out of this review, and do you think they’ve made the superannuation system more robust and transparent as intended?

DS: There’s a couple of big elements to Your Future, Your Super. One is obviously the performance test that all the default super funds in the first round really needed to actually be measured against our indexes. Ultimately that’s when the 13 super funds – which we called the ‘naughty funds’ that fell 50 basis points below that performance test – were really called out. What you’ve actually seen is that most of those funds have actually merged with other funds through this period of time. So, is it working? Well, in many ways the transparency and having a really clear yardstick is a really good thing for the industry. It is a privilege to manage members’ money in a default setting. Being a really good performer is important. So, I would actually say it is doing its job.

Now that it has been in for a period of time, we would love to see if there are adjustments on the performance test. It was quite blunt how it was put in. Take something like infrastructure, and things that we’ve been talking about like digital infrastructure and renewables, and the energy transition. That really doesn’t show up in the infrastructure benchmark. It’s more tolls and poles, and that side of things. So, there probably needs to be some adjustment there to make sure there’s not perverse incentives of where to invest. So, I think there are adjustments, but it’s really at the edge.

The other element that came in under Your Future, Your Super was what’s called ‘best financial interest duty’. They put a reverse onus of burden on trustees, which no corporate has. If you look at who has reverse onus of burden, it’s terrorists and drug lords really; that’s really the only place where it comes into play. We’d like to see that reversed and normalised, and then a materiality threshold. What it actually means as a super fund is you’ve got a massive burden to actually demonstrate every single little expense you’ve had, versus what a normal corporate would need to do. So, there are the couple of areas, but they’re more at the margin. The majority of it is really positive and a really good step up for the industry.

KF: Thanks. That’s it for me on questions. I think our discussion today has showcased that it’s a really interesting time. It’s an exciting time for people in the room and it’s a challenging time ahead for most of us. Thank you all for joining us on the panel today.

Deanne Stewart joined Aware Super as Chief Executive Officer in 2018. Aware Super is one of Australia’s largest super funds, and Stewart has led the company’s drive to be a force for good through its responsible investment philosophy, and focus on providing its members with the best guidance and advice for retirement. She has more than 25 years’ leadership experience in financial services in wealth, superannuation, and insurance sectors in Australia and internationally. This includes time as Managing Director with Merrill Lynch Wealth Management in New York, and as Engagement Manager with McKinsey and Company in London.

Before joining Aware Super, Stewart was Chief Executive Officer of MetLife Australia, and also held senior roles within BT Financial Group, including as General Manager for Superannuation, Marketing and Direct Channels. A hallmark of Stewart’s career has been a passionate commitment to building and maintaining a strong culture, and clearly defined purpose to drive business success.

Nik Kemp is Head of Infrastructure at AustralianSuper and has over 20 years’ experience in investing in the infrastructure sector. The portfolio he oversees has over $30 billion of funds under management and includes assets in Australia, North and South America, Europe and Asia. Prior to joining AustralianSuper in 2013, Kemp was Founding Director at Capella Capital, and before that he was a member of the infrastructure teams at Babcock and Brown, and ABN AMRO. Kemp has spent time working in the United Kingdom for Henderson Global Investors and started off his career as Management Consultant at the Boston Consulting Group in Melbourne.

Paul Richards is Head of Resources, Energy and Infrastructure at ANZ. Richards was appointed to his current position in January 2022 having worked for ANZ for more than 20 years. Richards began his career in Sydney in 1993 and has had an extensive career working in structured finance in London, Tokyo, Singapore and Australia.

Kip Fitzsimon specialises in major projects and construction. She leads the Infrastructure Sector team at Allens and is widely recognised as a leading infrastructure lawyer. Fitzsimon is experienced in the infrastructure, property, and energy and resources sectors, and has advised sponsors, lenders, government, and a broad range of contractors/operators on various aspects of project development on some of Australia’s most iconic projects. Fitzsimon also has a comprehensive understanding of Public Private Partnerships, having acted on both the Government and consortium side of these projects across Australia for more than 14 years.

Fitzsimon’s practice includes advising on the origination of new infrastructure (including competitive bid processes, unsolicited or market-led proposals, private developments and other forms of procurement), and advising on the delivery and operational aspects of major infrastructure projects.

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Image courtesy of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency

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