THE WORLD THIS WEEK

By Vivek Mishra, Harini Madhusudan, Sourina Bej, Abigail Fernandez and Rashmi Ramesh, Teshu Singh and Samreen Wani

Contributed by National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru*Greece-Turkey Tensions, Iran and the UNSC, China and the South China Sea and Shinzo Abe’s resignation in Japan

Greece and Turkey: Bilateral relations deteriorate beyond drilling rights

What happened?

Three developments took place this week that has further worsened the relationship between Greece and Turkey amid a conflict over natural gas reserves.

On 26 August, Greece announced that it would conduct military exercises with France, Italy, and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean. The French Armed Forces Ministry confirmed France’s participation, adding that it is contributing three French Rafale jets and one frigate equipped with a helicopter to the military exercises. In response, Turkey announced that it had carried out military drills of its own with the US Navy. Turkey’s Defense Ministry said on Twitter that “Turkish warships and the USS Winston S Churchill destroyer had taken part in maritime training in the eastern Mediterranean.”

The above developments came after Greece ratified an accord on maritime boundaries with Egypt in response to Turkey’s operation in the region wherein the later had sent a seismic survey vessel to look for more natural gas reserves.

The European Union (EU) is caught in the crossfire between Greece and Turkey. The EU, in an attempt to diffuse the conflict between the two NATO countries, has called for dialogue. It also threatened sanctions against Turkey.

What does it mean?

First, the crisis in the Mediterranean will deepen unless both Greece and Turkey take a step back and re-evaluate their overlapping legal claims over the continental shelf. A compromise is the way forward but not likely as both countries engage in military exercises to drive home a message to the other.

Second, the EU’s role will be crucial in navigating itself out of the conflict. Sanctions have not deterred Ankara before and will not now. It is an assertive country with strong regional ambitions that the EU is dealing with. Unless an agreement is made with Turkey to resolve the migrant issue, Turkey will continue to use this sticking point as leverage against the later.

South China Sea: China launches missiles in the disputed waters

What happened?

On 26 August 2020, China launched two missiles; D-21 (range of around 1,800km) and DF-26 (Ballistic Missile with a range of 3000-4000 km) in the disputed South China Sea. The two missiles were launched from the northwest province of Qinghai and Zhejiang province into an area between Hainan province and the Paracel Islands.

The above development comes immediately a day after, a U-2 spy plane of the US entered a “nofly zone” at the time of ongoing Chinese live-fire naval drill in the Bohai Sea.

What does it mean?

The missile tests come against the background of the ongoing annual RIMPAC (the Rim of Pacific Exercise) military drills in Hawaii. In a related development, Mark Esper said that the ruling Chinese Communist Party wants China to project power globally through its military. He further reiterated that “this will undoubtedly involve the People’s Liberation Army provocative behaviour in the South and East China Seas, and anywhere else, the Chinese government has deemed critical to its interests.”

Through the missiles test, China wants to emphasize its strategic dominance and sovereignty over the disputed region. The test will further destabilize the region. The Pentagon has reiterated that conducting military exercises is counterproductive to easing tensions and maintain stability. It is a violation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. It also raises doubts about the motivation behind the ongoing negotiation for a Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN. Overall, the test has caused unease among China’s neighbours and will further destabilize the already volatile disputed region.

Iran: The US gets snubbed at the UNSC, while Tehran agrees for IAEA inspection

What happened?

On 14 August, the UNSC rejected a US proposal to extend the arms embargo on Iran indefinitely, that is due to expire in October. Only the Dominican Republic joined the US in favour of the resolution that was vetoed by Russia and China. The rest of the 11 countries abstained from voting on the resolution. The Indonesian ambassador to the UN (also serving as the President of the UNSC) stated that he was in no position to take ‘further action’ due to lack of consensus in the Council. Reacting to the failure of the resolution, the US Ambassador expressed regret that the other members of the Council had chosen to stand ‘in the company of terrorists’. The US further threatened to invoke the snapback clause of the JCPOA to keep the sanctions going.

On 26 August 2020, in another meaningful development, amid high-level talks between the IAEA chief and Iran, an agreement to allow inspections in two secret nuclear sites in Iran was reached. In return, Iran secured the IAEA guarantee that it would not pursue any further questions on the issue.

What does it mean?

The approval to participate and facilitate IAEA inspections comes as Tehran wants to come across as the more accommodative and receptive signatory to the deal. By securing the IAEA guarantee, it wants to solidify its credibility and put a stop to accusations of violation from Israel, US and their partners in the Gulf.

The defeat at the UNSC is quite an attestation on how isolated the US is on the issue. That the abstentions and the vetoes by fellow council members got likened to support for terrorism and didn’t even register in the US as a legitimate exercise in respective ‘national interests’ is hardly surprising. Committed and driven only by imposing its own militaristic will on countries and multilateral institutions, this latest tirade launched against Council members is a reaction to the fatigue with the US manipulation of geopolitics often to the detriment of the entire region. By riding roughshod on the deal and by placing conditions akin to complete strategic capitulation from Iran, the US has advertised that nothing short of the death of the deal is desirable.

Japan: Shinzo Abe announces resignation

What happened?

Shinzo Abe put an end to speculations surrounding his health on 28 August 2020, announced that he would leave the office. The 65-year-old stated that his health began to decline from mid-July. Shinzo Abe’s administration had been facing criticism for Japan’s slowing economy and its handling of the pandemic. Abe is the longestserving leader in Japan whose term was due September 2021.

What does it mean?

The timing of Shinzo Abe’s exit has certainly been a shock. The fact that he is resigning for a second time would cost heavy for his political career. The successor is unlikely to deviate from the existing policies of the government but would essentially be left with the management of the COVID crisis and deal with the prominent domestic and regional challenges. Shinzo Abe has announced that he will return to his political career before the next general elections.

ALSO, IN THE NEWS

Twin Bomb attacks in the Philippines

On 24 August 2020, two bombs exploded in a town in Southern Philippines, leaving 14 dead. The first bomb is said to be a homemade bomb attached to a motorcycle and the other was carried out by a female suicide bomber. Reports suggest that a third unexploded bomb was discovered at a public market.

Facebook bans a Thai group that was critical of the monarchy

A million-member group that was discussing the monarchy on Facebook was blocked in Thailand after the Thai government threatened legal action against Facebook. Criticism of the monarchy is illegal in Thailand and the group’ Royalist Marketplace,’ was run by a self-exiled academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, from Japan. The ban has drawn criticisms by civil rights groups and adds to the ongoing protests against the monarchy.

Iraq: Downsizing of the US troops, and violent protests

First, the Trump administration is expected to downsize the US force in Iraq to about 3500 troops.

Chinese President Xi Jinping

This is an approximately onethird reduction in the troop size. The move is part of Trump’s plan to withdraw from different countries across, particularly the war zones. Second, protests in Iraq’s Basra took a violent turn, as protestors torched the local parliament office and clashed with the security forces. The protestors demanded the resignation of Asad al-Eidani, Governor of Basra, after two activists were shot dead in the city.

Sweden: Riots in Malmö

Violence broke out in southern Swedish city Malmö, when a Danish politician was not allowed to attend a Quran-burning rally. AsmusPaludan of the far-right, anti-Islamic, anti-immigration party StramKurs (Hard Line) was blocked from reaching the venue holding the rally. The Swedish authorities banned him from entering the country for a period of two years and detained him near Malmö. His supporters conducted the rally, and three of them courted arrest on the basis of racism and inciting hatred.

About the Authors Dr Vivek Mishra is Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi; Harini Madhusudan and Rashmi BR are PhD Scholars, NIAS; Sourina Bej and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Project Associate and Research Assistant respectively; Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation and SamreenWani is a MA in International Studies from Stella Maris College.

Japanse Prime Minister Shinzo Abe