Humans must brace for existential threats like never before

From the editor’s desk

By Rabindra Mukherjee

Of late, mankind has entered into a phase of its development where it is fast moving towards an existential crisis of the magnitude never before witnessed, save the two World Wars. Given the technological progress that humans have made, it is now within the scope of a buttonpress to unleash the powers of destruction that have the potential to wipe the human race from the face of the earth. This is now no longer paranoia; rather it is the grim reality of the unfolding of the history-inthe-making. Conventional wars are furthermore compounded by terrorist attacks with statesponsored terrorism becoming a norm rather than being an aberration. The Russia-Ukraine war is showing no signs of ending any time soon. As if that was not enough for an already energy-starved world, the Israel-Palestine war is likely to exacerbate the economic problems of many countries with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva saying recently that the Israel-Hamas conflict has darkened the horizon for the world economy that was already going through a phase of weak growth.

In the current global context, the recent report released by a US Congress-appointed bipartisan panel assumes significance as it has recommended that the US must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China. The panel has emphasized the need for the US to expand its conventional forces, along with strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernisation programme. This report is being viewed from the perspective of the situations rising from mounting tensions with China over Taiwan, and worsening of US-Russia relations over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The panel’s recommendations include the need for the US to prepare to increase its number of deployed warheads, as also increase its production of bombers, air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missile submarines, non-strategic nuclear forces, and warhead production capacity. The report further asks the US to deploy multiple warheads on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and consider adding road-mobile ICBMs to its arsenal. The broader implications of these developments may be viewed as portents for the future course of international politics and power dynamics.

Interestingly, as the experts analyze the report, they feel that the only reason the report does not recommend an immediate increase of the US nuclear weapons stockpile is that the weapons production complex currently does not have the capacity to do so. However, the panel seems to have completely overlooked the fact that if the US resorts to increasing its stockpile of nuclear weapons, Russia and China would also follow suit resulting in yet-another era of arms race. This could put the US and its allies at risk of a potential nuclear attack. Nuclear weapons seem no longer to be much of a deterrent as it once used to be, at least on paper. Now countries do not shy away from acquiring their own nuclear-weapon capabilities, either through legitimate means or by resorting to smuggling nuclear technology from elsewhere. Then there is the recent trend of reverse engineering weapons, including missile technologies. Iran is a good example of a country that has increased its power by acquiring a few pieces of US technology using the means of reverse engineering weapons seized from the US. China also seems to have decided that it needs more nuclear weapons to confront any threat from the US, Russia and India.

India also faces the prospect of a two-front war- one with Pakistan, and the other with China. Both Pakistan and China have caused India a lot of wounds, in both distant and recent pasts. The ground reality as it stands from the Indian perspective vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, has forced India to increase manifold its defence expenditure. In the event of an outbreak of a war in Asia, many countries from across the world may have to get involved in choosing sides, keeping in view their respective interests. In a highly complex, competitive and interconnected world order, a non-aligned approach is no longer a viable option. This implies that out of economic and political necessities, countries may well be drawn into wars they neither initiate nor feel desirable to fight. Yet the situation may demand that they take sides and fight for their own interests. The results may be unimaginably complex and horrific, taking humans close to extinction, quite literally.

Therefore, in this extremely precarious situation the world finds itself in calls for all international entities, governments and nongovernment entities, charitable institutions, business conglomerates, and religious organizations to pause and introspect, and then get together, leaving aside narrow considerations of distinctions, to save the human race from extinction. This is not an option any more; in fact, this is the utter need of the hour. Natural calamities have already increased; global warming is no longer a theoretical matter to be discussed across coffee tables. One pandemic has already rocked the world, more are being predicted. Mental diseases are also rising across the world, proving the point that the modern man is instrumental in bringing forth its own destruction much before nature would have struck anyway. This is the sorry state of affairs of the world. Besides, human rights are being trampled underfoot in countries throughout the world. Moreover, business interests have dangerously intermingled with political, social and cultural interests. An attempt at homogenizing diverse cultures in the world is a serious threat to the further development of the human race. Also, religious fanaticism and increasing intolerance have resulted in a world that is ever-ready to destroy itself.

The recent statement from the Russian President Putin that Russia always supports a twonation solution to the IsraelPalestine conflict is surprising in the light of the fact that Russia itself is fighting a bloody war with Ukraine and is in no way close to working out a solution to its conflict with Ukraine. But the Russian President’s statement has made one thing clear- Russia wants to play its part, akin to its former self, the erstwhile USSR, in the emerging world order. With China rising and having the ambition of becoming a superpower, the complexities of the contemporary world will only increase, rather than gravitate towards peaceful solutions to problems that have cropped up recently or have been around for ages.