WORLD THIS WEEK

In collaboration with National Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru

Authored by Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma, Ankit Singh, Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, and Femy Francis

Russia-Ukraine Conflict from a Tactical Lens ALSO

First, a negative prediction for Ukraine’s air force and counteroffensive. The document leak confirmed that Ukraine is fighting with limited air defence systems. Since 2023, Ukraine began demanding modern aviation and fighter jets which can change the gears from defensive to offensive. It faces a threat of exhaustion of medium to high-range air-defence systems (S-300, SA-3, and SA12) such as IRIS-T by March, SA-11 by April, and NASAMS by May 2023. Additionally, the inability to match the “Russian air superiority,” and increased usage of SA-10, while SA-11 depletes. It claims the increased capability of Russia in ariel manoeuvring and improved accuracy in “long-range munitions.”

Second, fragility and frustration in the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF). The maps in the leaked documents disclose the vulnerable position of the Ukraine forces in the southwest, northern, eastern, and southern. It confirms the Russian encirclement of the Bakhmut, leaving out West of Bakhmut, the only supply route for UAF subject to attacks. The document also confirms the defeat of Ukraine's forces in the north, forcing it to withdraw from Berkhivka resulting in the loss of the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) between Bakhmut and the M-03 highway. This highway is considered essential for Ukraine as it connects to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, losing the GLOC would challenge its ground force operation. To ease the difficult position in the Bakhmut, Ukraine plans to involve Shaman or Kraken units of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) for a maximum of two weeks. In the battle of Bakhmut as per the leaked documents, clashes have emerged between the UAF and Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), as UAF demands only the “combat element” of the HUR units without its “command and control.” HUR Officer has criticized the UAF leadership for asking only for combat as it mandates a “clear ground control” to reduce the complexities faced by Ukraine forces and to secure Yahidne (located in the centre of Bakhmut, another side of Berkhivka). Securing Yahidne is crucial for Ukraine as it is predicted to host an important supply road for Ukraine.

Third, third-party entities and the US allies' role in military support and strengthening. Throughout the war, Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of receiving support from external actors. On the one hand, the US, the EU, and NATO allies have been supporting Ukraine. On the other, Belarus and Iran have been supporting Russia. The leak has exposed the involvement of other actors in the conflict and revealed the military exercises conducted by NATO allies in a 24-48 hours span. The documents confirm the transfer of the Iskander-M division, and Russia’s air defence units into Belarus to launch an offensive into Ukraine. This shows Belarus’s approval to switch from training to launching an offensive into Ukraine from its territory. In the case of South Korea, it has faced pressure from the US to send ammunition to Ukraine. To avoid the public debate of it adhering to US’s demand, it has tried to circumvent its support through Poland, although Poland’s reaction was yet to be verified. For Israel, which has so far agreed to provide non-lethal aid to Ukraine, the documents reveal the possibility of different scenarios which can prompt it to provide lethal aid to Ukraine. Especially under the pressure of the US, a shift in Russia’s behaviour in Syria and its relations with Iran. Apart from this, the most surprising element would be the engagement of the “joint staff” of the US, the UK, France, Latvia, and the Netherlands in Ukraine. The joint land, sea, and air military exercises held between the southeast Flank of Europe, NATO allies, and numerous training camps held by the US, Germany, and Netherlands for UAF showcase the intensity and depths of military strengthening.

Fourth, a grim overview of Russia in the battle for Donbas. When Russia began the war, the first step was to proclaim Donetsk and Luhansk regions as its republics. The war later north and south of Ukraine created an inverted “c.” This area coming under Russia’s control announced the annexation of the republics along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson despite Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in Kherson. As a result of Russia’s determination to counter Ukraine’s defence, challenges in terms of logistics, command control, and personnel emerged. The same has been validated by the leaked documents. It states that due to Russia’s decision to involve the forces from the self-proclaimed republics, the Wagner Group, its private military security along with the Russian forces in different tactical attacks has led to exhaustion. Therefore, predicting a difficult recovery of Russian forces and replenishment of stocks, resulted in a “stalemate” beyond 2023.

2. An Increasing Presence of Wagner

The Wagner group is led by Putin ally Yevegeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's chef.” Wagner group has emerged as one the most popularly talked about aspects of the Russian efforts in the War in Ukraine.

First, the observation of Wagner’s renewed recruitment process. The documents alleging the Wagner group’s resumed recruitment refer to Project 42174. This project is aimed at recruiting, training and integrating Russian convicts to fight the War. The document refers to a moment when the senior Wagner officials were stationed at 70 prisoner recruitment points and in its background, the Russian MoD recalling their recruits.

Second, the deployment of mercenaries in Africa and South America. The Wagner Group sent their troops to the Central African Republic and Mali. It has also shown interest in deploying its troops to the southern coast of the U.S. in Haiti. “They’ll work for anyone and offer dictators coup security,” Vice News reported, referring to vulnerable national leaders who might employ the Russian mercenaries as private security details and a loyal military force.

The Wagner group, in the past months, has been complaining of a short supply of weapons to their war-fighting troops in Ukraine. With this background, the documents reveal the group’s efforts to reach out to other countries to meet their requirements. In early 2023, the group was reported to have sought munitions and equipment from China. However, China has so far not sent any weapons or scripted a contract with the group regarding weapons deliveries. With Turkiye, the group has sought drones, counter-battery systems, howitzer artillery, and electronic warfare systems. The document also reports the Turkish refusal of some of these requests. In the case of Belarus, it was reported that Minsk had already delivered 50 per cent of unspecified weapons promised by early January 2023, and had offered the group to send 300,000 VOG-17 grenade launcher rounds. With Syria, the group bought six SPG-9 grenade launchers and 180 grenades.

ALSO IN NEWS

Japan: Alarmed by North Korean spy satellites, prepares to shoot down if it breaches territory

On 22 April, Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada alarmed the military to prepare to shoot down any North Korean spy satellite in case it falls within Japanese territory. He also ordered to the deployment of troops in the southern prefecture of Okinawa in case the ballistic missiles fail. This comes after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the expedited launch of their first-ever spy satellite India: Visit of the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia

On 17 April, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and the Minister of Trade and Industry, Denis Manturov arrived in India. Along with the Indian Minister of External Affairs, he chaired the 24th session of the Intergovernmental Commission. Both sides reviewed the bilateral relations and also highlighted the imbalance of bilateral trade. They also discussed the issue of payments due to the sanctions in Russia.

Iran: US submarine made to surface in Iranian waters

On 20 April, an Iranian official said that the US Navy submarine was made to surface in the Strait of Hormuz, violating the Iranian borders. Commander Shahram Irani said that “the US submarine was approaching while submerged, but the Iranian submarine Fateh detected it and carried out manoeuvres to force it to surface as it went through the Strait.” The submarine corrected its course after being warned. Iran said that the matter would be taken to relevant international bodies. The US Navy, however, did not issue a statement regarding the issue.

Europe: NATO Chief's Stresses on Stopping Russian Aggression

On 20 April, NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Ukraine for the first time since the war. On the question of Ukraine joining NATO, Stoltenberg said that its accession would be a priority in its agenda in the upcoming July summit. He added: "Ukraine's future is in the Euro-Atlantic family, Ukraine's future is in NATO, all allies agree on that." The surprise visit was due to Ukraine's ongoing preparation for the "Spring counteroffensive." In his address, he highlighted that EUR 150 billion in support was being provided by NATO allies and training help to the soldiers. Although the time period of the war was unknown, he stressed that Russia's aggression has to be "stopped."

About the Authors

Harini Madhusudan, Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma and Ankit Singh are PhD scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, and Femy Francis are Research Associates at NIAS. The report has been modified due to space considerations.