China’s military game-plan to dominate the Indo-Pacific

China’s military game-plan to dominate the Indo-Pacific

Dr. Rajiv Nayan

Missiles are in news again. The new developments in missile technology are apparently threatening to start a new arms race, and thereby heralding a new missile age in the world. Recently, a London-based think-tank in collaboration with a European government organised a webinar in which global experts and officials participated. This was the second such meeting on missiles which focused on the Asia-Pacific, while the first one discussed the European theatre.

At both the meetings, the hypersonic missile or vehicle emerged as a major threat or challenge for regional powers and international regimes. Cruise missiles have also figured prominently in both the Asian and European meetings. In both instances, the role of Ballistic Missile Development for regional stability emerged as key discussion point. Besides, for many countries, even the unregulated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) proliferation and development is gradually becoming a major area of concern.

Fluid security situation in Asia

For a variety of reasons, the feared becoming a theatre of war, including a nuclear war which led to disarmament protests and campaigns to rid the region of short and medium range nuclear weapons and prevent their potential use in a conflict situation.

In Asia, there are theatres simmering with tension now and it is likely that serious concerns may emerge in the West over rising regional tensions in Asia triggered by the short and intermediate-range missiles development and deployments. It is noteworthy that there is no regional pressure yet to conclude any multilateral treaty in Asia. Having said that, the end of the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) treaty has been welcomed in some quarters. The emergent thinking among regional states and strategists is that an aggressive China can only be countered when the United States lifts restrictions on development and deployment of ballistic missiles in the Asian theatres. In addition, East Asia, South East Asia and Australia also need the American presence in shaping the security environment in the Indo-Pacific.

Simultaneously, there is a growing realization that any new missile treaty will be meaningless without including the militarily rapidly modernising China, and a proposed trilateral treaty consisting of Russia, the US and China is strongly backed by the international strategic community as the way forward. Although some are talking about the acquisition of advanced technology by smaller countries in Asia-Pacific to counterbalance China, there is a growing consensus that China is too far ahead in developing new supersonic and cruise missiles, UAV technology and many such systems. It is also aggressively marketing its high-technology intensive products in the global market participating in various defence expos.

China averse to any missile treaty

Of course, China remains averse to joining any such treaty for fear of having its missile programmes curbed and falling short of matching the Western

military prowess, particularly the US. Available writings on the subject demonstrate that these weapons technologies are considered critical for the Chinese anti-access/area denial capabilities. Although the world is still struggling to define emerging and enabling items, gradually some products are flooding the list of emerging and enabling technologies. China has invested a great deal into technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and space based navigation and integrating them with its missile technology.

It is anticipated that new technologies will make Chinese missiles not only fast and accurate but also lethal and containerised. China plans to move beyond the Cold War idea of addressing the window of vulnerability and signalling to strengthen second strike capabilities for strategic stability. It shall have its own course to dominate at least in Asia and possibly, the world as a new hegemon. Thus, the Chinese missile developments will create a new insecurity environment in the Indo-Pacific.

Dr Rajiv Nayan is a Senior Research Officer Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.