Australia-India poised for a leading role in soon to be normal world

India’s External Affairs Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently in an interview with a policy thinktank in Australia said that he takes great satisfaction in how the Australia-India bilateral relationship has deepened in the last year and a half. As two cricket playing Commonwealth members both share interests and values and their ties should be independent of their respective relationship with China, he said. However, it is important to point out that much of the intensity in their bilateral engagement in recent months has been driven by Australia’s growing tensions with China over the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, Hong Kong crackdown, alleged foreign interference in Australia’s internal political functioning, tariff wars and impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the one hand, and India’s military tensions with China in Doklam and Ladakh on the other.

Undeniably, the world hierarchy has been shaken and so has the capabilities of states relative to each other and their global influence in recent years, as Dr Jaishankar pointed out. The world today is transitioning through global geopolitical and economic restructuring, wherein both sides have championed a rule-based, accountable, transparent and peaceful order. Since 2014, India has seen historic transformations in its democratic, social, economic and cultural mosaic, which earned respect from global powers, including Australia, while disturbing some. Similarly, Australia too has openly resisted China’s overbearing influence in world affairs and criticised Beijing for its autarchic conduct, military muscle flexing in the Indo- Pacific and punitive business and trade policies, which is admired in India.

It will not be an exaggeration to submit that Australia-India ties elevated to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2020 have reached a historical high and are poised to transform into a significant relationship in the Indo-Pacific. Be it Australia choosing to divert agricultural exports to India from China or the deepening maritime cooperation and the evolution of Quad, both sides have demonstrated a firm resolve to shape the post-Covid order. Australian Senator Simon Birmingham, who led a trade delegation to New Delhi in February, had said, “Australia must look into alternative markets in the European Union and India.”

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade observes that India’s youthful population and diversified growth trajectory present significant opportunity in education, agriculture energy, resource, tourism, healthcare, financial services and infrastructure among other areas. Both sides have formalised over 20 MoU last June covering some of these areas during the Modi-Morrison virtual summit. Their two-way trade has risen from $13.6 billion to $30.4 billion in 2018, but it is still below their full potential. By 2035, both sides aim to double their bilateral trade and Australia seeks to bring India in its top 5 trading partners (currently 8th).

As the two sides deepen their business and trade engagements, they also keep a close eye on the Indo-Pacific. They have spread their bets, quite rightly, and adopted a bilateral, quadrilateral (India- Australia-US-Japan) and trilateral (India-Australia- Indonesia; and India-Australia- Japan) approach to shape the regional security architecture. The entry of Australia in the Malabar exercise in November 2020 is testimony to freshthinking that has germinated in New Delhi, Canberra, Washington and Tokyo in recent months.

There is no denying that as world economies show some positive trends after months of bloodbath at the hands of the pandemic, and prospects of a vaccine earlier than previously anticipated gain currency, Australia-India must be seen to be leading the global fightback for an order based on mutual trust, transparency, rule and territorial respect. Both must be seated at the high table when world retains normalcy, and not be slack in arriving late.