rom rov1nc1a to rime ministeria

The journey of India's PM elect reflects prosperity for India's future, reports SAROJ MOHANTY

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l arendra Modi during the e lection campaign that catapulted the Gujarat chief minister co the very pinnacle of power as the next prime minister of India.

His words sounded prophetic in mid-May as the Bharatiya Jana ta Party won an absolute majority on its own, securing a record number of 282 seats in the Lok Sabha, and in the process reducing the Congress to its lowest number in the house.

Ir has been an extraordinary journey for the man, an outlier, who does nor belong ro any of the country's enduring political dynasties or to the socio - culmral elite. He has been bra.oded as a "Hindutva hardliner," and a "divish7 e, polarising figure," especially because of the 2002 riots under his own rule in his home scare. Modi has in a way taken sweet revenge as he savours the phenomenal poll results, his own glory and the finest- ever performance of the BJ P in more than three decades of its existence. fo contrast, the can1paign of tl1e Congress led by i ts undeclared prime ministerial nominee, vice president R;ihuJ Gandhi, was uninspiring.

At the height of a gruelling campaign, Modi had said in an interview that he sensed a very strong anti - incumbency wave against tbe lO- year Congress rule, marked by massive corruption and seemingly dysfm1ctional government.

As he travelled across this country of sub- continental size and bewildering diversity, he saw "an equally strong wave for the BJP and its NOA partners," a yearning for change, for a "stable," performing government in New Delhi.

To a large extent, his own carefully crafted image of a "strong and decisive" leader found resonance across the country and has no doubt pl ayed a role that is reflected in the poll resul ts. In the 13 years he has been at the helm of affairs in Gujarat, Modi has built an image of a leader who delivers, someone who is interested in results.

In the last few years, when the Manmohan Singh government was ridiculed for being caught in a "polic y paralysis," l\focli seized the oppornmity and conveyed a vision of decisive government and development. And this he made the main p lank of his e lectoral campaign that tOliched a chord, an iustanr connection, especially with the young, first- time voters and the country's burgeoning middle class.

"[Modi] functions like a modem day CEO laying emphasis on the outcome and often aLiegeclly putting the rules and normal norms in the backbumer," said one of his biographers Nirendra Dev.

This was facilitated by an aggressive use of technology and media, and well supported by the Sangh Parivar whose members pressed its cadres to canvass for theBJP.

Opposition leaders and independent observers, however, say that though Modi talked about development, the parry indulged in some social engineering in scares like Uttar Pmdesh, and p layed the backward caste and conmrnnal cards.

But there are specific and deep social changes that seem to have helped the so -called Modi wave. focreased urbanisation, interregional migration and spread of commtulication have bridged the rural-urban divide in voting behaviour. In face, economic shifts and greater connectivity are creating a new kind of constituency, one that is neither classically urban nor rural, but a hybrid "rurban"

According to demographer Sonalde Desai, though India has not become a non-agricultural country, farming has increasingly become a part- time job.

Recent surveys have shown greater divergence between scares than between villages and cities.

Modi has been tapping into what he calls a "neo- m idclle class" made up of newcomers co the urban economy. The country's travel from a state -run economy co one run more by private capiral has Jed co a situation where aspirations are rising a lot faster than improvements on the gwu n d.

A master strategist, Modi also saw to it that the Bharatiya Janata Parry, which traditionally appealed to the urban middle class, this time moved into rural and sem i- urban areas, and tapped especially youth.

greets his party's newly elected lawmakers at Parliament House in Delhi

The mauling of the Congress

BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendrn l\fodi's prediccion that Congress would not be able to open its account in several states came true, with rhe party failing to secure a single Lok Sabha seat from Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand.

Congress leaders said that it was unprecedented for the party not to score seats across regions in a general eleccion The party a lso could nor cross rouch doub le digit in any stare as it suffered heavy reverses in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jyfaharashrra, Assam and Uttar Pradesh.

TI1e Congress lost all seven sears in the nacional cap ital of Dellu ,vhich were wrested by the Bharatiira Janata Party.

It was 0-25 for Congress in Rajastha.n, 0 -26 in Gujarat, 0-4 in T-Iimachal Pradesh, 0 -5 in Uttarakhand and 0-39 in Tamil Nadu. Except Tamil Nad u the party lost all seats co the BJP in the other states.

Modi had said in his rally ar Valmiki agar in Bibar, May 7 that Congress wiU be reduced co zero in many s tates where the anger against UPA's "failure" to contain corrupcion was marked.

The parry could win only one seat in Haryana, four in Maharashtra, two in Andhra Pradesh and three seats in Assam

TI1e Congress, lndia's oldest pany which had ruled the country for a decade since 2004, faced its worst humiliacion, raising 9uestion 1muks about the future of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty tbat has given India most of its prime ministers. Congress' de facto prime ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi, whose father, grandmother and great-grandfather were all prime ministers, was bumb led by Modi in a way that the Congress plummeted to its lowest ever rwocligit tally in a nacional election.

16 MAY (2) 2014 lt was a graveyard for Congress stalwarts.

]\,f.inisrer after minister, leader after leader, lost at the hustings, with only a notable few winning through co d1e 16th Lok Sabha. Ar least 23 ministers of Manmoha.n Singb's government lost, including Home Minister Sushi.lkumar Sh inde, External Affairs l\,linisrer Salman Khurshid, Communicacions l\lliniscer Kapil Sibal, Health Minister Gbulam Nabi Azad, Corporate Affairs

Minister Sa.chin Pilot and Sports Minister J irendta Singh. Manmoha.n Singh, who had announced his retirement earlier this year, did not contest Outgoing finance minister P. Chidamabaram's son Karci Chidambaram lost from his fad1er's constiniency after the laner opted out of the comest And so did Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kmrn1r (Sasaram).

All BJP stalwarts won easily including L.K Advani (Gandhinagar), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow) , Murli Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Nitin Gadkari (1 agpur) and Sushma Swaraj (Vidisha).

The only BJP leader who lost was Arun Ja.itley, leader of tl1e party in the Rajya Sabha who was trounced b y former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh of the Congress in Amritsar. Jaitley was cipped to be the finance minister in a new Modi government

Questions about Rahu l Gandhi 's leadership

Rahul Gandhi, 43, who led the Congress campaign, rnanaged to win his own seat of Amethi bur with a considernbly reduced margin compared to the 2009 elections. He was up against dvals considered lightweight and could manage to salvage his sear, considered a family pocket borough, partly due co the efforts of his sister Pr:iyanka Gandhi Vadra who campaigned there vigorousl y especially towards the fag end of tbe campaign.

But Congress leaders sought to litewall Ralml Gandhi, saying char they were collectively responsib le for tbe resul ts. The y, however, said there would be introspection over the results as "too much was at stake".

RahuJ Gandhi started his national campaign late, almost four months after 1\fodi bad set into the role following his annointment as rhe Bharaciya Jaoata Party's prime ministerial candidate in September last year.

Modi tapped into people's discontent and anger over price rises, corrnption, unemployment and a sense among tl1e middle classes that India had wasted irs opporrunicies during 10 years of Congress-led U nited Progressive Alliance rule

Though Rahul Gandhi sought to paint Modi as "divisive" and dictatorial and tall,ed endlessly of the UPA government's welJ:are i.niciatives, his strategy did not succeed.

He had little to show by way of achievement in governance as he had not taken a ro le in government despite repeated invitations.

Modi, on tl1e other hand, built his campaign arou nd the Gujarat model of development, having led the state as chief minister from 2001.

He raised hopes of a bright, prom..ising future among d1e people, basing his promises on the work he had done in Gujarat.

The Congress made a strategic move nor to declare Rahul Gandhi as prime ministerial candidate but that did not prevent a "presidential type" contest between him and Modi in the age of television. Modi got much more television space than Ralml due to his oratory.

U nlike Modi, w ho used technology and social media to bolster his campaign, Rahul

Gandhi appeared not to hav e brought any innovation co his campaign. Tbe Congress scion is not on twitter, a social media popular among the youth.

Gandhi bas been slammed by bis critics for being a reluctant poliricia.n , a leader w ho goes into virtual hibernation after phases of policical accivism and does not follow tlu:ough on the issues he raises. Hi s not being present at the farewell dinner his mother and Congress president Sonia Gandhi hosted for outgo ing prime minister Manmohan Singh was widely noticed in the media.

Rahul Gandhi addressed just over 160 rallies during the Lok Sabha campaign, a third of the nm11ber Modi addressed.

Congress promises structural changes but does not o utline roadmap

Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahn! Gandhi, have taken responsibility for the party's defeat Congress pres ident Sonia Gandhi and party vice president Rahul Gandhi offered to resign owning responsibility for tbe ctnshing defeat in tl1e Lok Sabha polls but tl1e parry rejected it while promising a tl10rough revamp and structural changes and admitting it was "unab le to connect witb the electorate".

The Congress has promised a thorough organisacional revamp and strnctmal changes as measures co win back confidence o f people after die party's worst defeat in a Lok Sabha dection but did not spell om the way it w ill be accomplished.

Both tl1e resolucion adopted at the Congress Wo.rking Committee meeting in New Delhi and Congress president Sonia Gandhi's speech gave tl1e party's tlisconnect wi ch the voters as reasons that led to the party just winning 44 of 543 Lok Sabha sears.

Party sources said d1at there could be a reshuffle of All India Congress Committee office- bearers in the coming weeks. The party has li ttle time for recovery as it has to face assembly elections later diis year in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jammu and Kashmir and possibly Delhi.

\~e an admission of failures is likely co go down welJ wiili tlle workers, who wanted tlleleadership co do some plainspeaking, there is stilJ no clarity about the kind of change chat will be brought about in srrucnttes of d1e party, its scale and its tin1elinc.

Parry vice pres ident Rahul Gandhi has been advocating direct elections to 6.11 various posts and opening Ltp the organisation and d1e resolution ind icated the party could go in iliac direction as it talked about creating " opporturuties and structures tllar wiU pave tlle way of a tllorough revamp of the orgarusarion at aU levels".

Former minister Kamal Natl, has suggested that CWC members should also be elected and nor noniinated by tlle Congress president

However, a section of ilie party is not satisfied wiili die outcome of Rahul Gandhi's moves to usher in internal democracy in Youth Congress saying d1at it had brought in a crop of leaders who were nor adept in agitational politics.

While tlle resolution and Soni,1. Gandhi's speech talked about the parry having failed to read the profound c hanges chat had taken place in d1e counu-y during die ten years of UP.A government, iliere was no indication from ilie party how these will be addressed in d,e coniing days

Sonia ('.,-and.hi said the party should ponder why ics support base has eroded and if the party was in tun e with d1e aspirations of the youth and keeping pace with d1e change.

She also said ilie party needed " clearheaded and fresh d,inking that will help us correct our shoncomings" but did not elaborate.

According to Congress general secretary Janradan Dwivedi d1ough there has been a feeling among Congress workers d1at Rahul Gandhi had not been properly advised by key members in his team. There is also palpable discontent among ,vorkers against many Congress ministers for ' not paying d1em due regard" while in office

There was also expectation among party workers of general secretaries being held accountable for the party's poor performance in across states. The Congress could nor reach double digit mark in any state and failed to open its account in many.

Sources said tllar general secretaries offered to be held accountable at d1e meeting but tbe common refrain at tbe meeting was for "collective responsibility''.

RabuJ Gandhi led the party campaign that was heavily built around the UPA regime's achievements mough tllere was a sense of dejection among voters on issues of price rise and corruption - which Manmohan Singh, speaking at the meeting, termed di e ones which the government failed to commuriicate widi the people.

SoLtrces said that most membe rs harped upon lack of proper communication during the last few years.

Prime Minister Modi will rework, repair foreign ties

As India makes way for a new BJP-led government, with the elections keenly followed by major wodd powers, foreign policy e.'\-perts say d1e regime change is a signal to ilie world "that d1e world'.~ largest democracy is alive and kicking" and iliac d1e chumping majority gives Prime Minister Modi die mandate to rework and repair relatiom.

Former envoy Hardeep Singh Puri, who joined the BJP earlier diis year, said the overwhelming mandate "gives Mr. Modi the mandate required to repair the relationships in me neighbomhood and rework other critically important relationships like iliose with the US and China".

"Prime Minister Modi will have me f]e,,dbility a n d space to pursue India's interests and ensure that India can contribute to global peace and security in a maurier commensurate with India:5 size and potential," Puri, who served as India's Permanem Representative co the United Nations and is likel y to play a foreign policy role in the new government, told 1.ANS.

According to former envoy G. Pa.rthasaratby, d1e poll result "sends a signal to die world iliac die world's largest democracy is alive and kicking".

He furd1ered, "The success or od1erwise of foreign policy will depend on bow our economy surges ahead AmomaticaUy, foreign policy will be in order when it becomes clear to the ,vorld that India is set to grow and welcomes foreign investment and coUaborarion".

The former envoy to Pakistan and A ustralia. said, "Most foreign investors have lost confidence (in lndia). Because of m isnianagement of die economy; defen ce spending has fallen to a record low; this has affected our national security adversely' '. He added mat India has problems in the neighbourhood which "have to be imaginatively addressed".

Parthasaralli)' s,iid despite me BJP winning a simple majority on its own, in a federal setup in dealing wid1 Sri Lanka tlle government will have to have consultations wiili Tamil Nadu. With Bangladesh, the views o f West Bengal and Tripura will have to be tal,en into account.

Well-known strategic analyst C. Uday Bhaskar told ]:ANS diat "One area where tlle BJP will have more freedom is in relation co die immediate neighbourhood , where in me past some state governments and dominant regional parties hobb led tlle centre. Tamil adu in rdarion to Sri Lanka and West Bengal apropos Bangladesh are a case in point. With Pakistan, ilie Modi li ne is that he will not be a prisoner of me past but me terrorism issue \.viii have to be addressed".

Bhaskar, a distinguished fellow wid, die Society for Policy Studies, also noted, "t\s regards the otller elements of India's foreign policies - \Vhether China or d1e USA, a mucl1 more visib le political coore.xt and content is on the cards. Bue as always, national economic resilience and the srrengrh of die Indian rupee wiU be die bedrock of die credibility of Delhi's external policies".

Prominent foreign policy expert

C. Raja Mohan sa id Modi's emphasis on forme r prime nlin.ister Acal Bil1ari Vajpayee's foreign policy legacy is politicaUy significant. "le bas offered much - needed reassurance all arotrnd chat India \Vill not abandon its traditional nuclear restraint, continue co seek peace with neighboms and promote regional prosperity dirough economic integration of the subcontinent."

Former envoy Pavan K. Varma said it is "too early to say;" adding "foreign policy i s a complex issue, it needs to be run on a planned fran1ework and not on ilie basis of sentiment or emotion or jingoism".

The Bharatiya Janara Patty in irs election manifes to had p ledged to "revise and update" India's nuclear doctrine le had observed that the strategic gains acquired by the party-led National Democratic Aliiance regime were " frittered away" by ilie Congress, and sai d its government would stress on "mending equations" and ties wid1 neighbours.

Every third newly- elected MP has a criminal case

171e number of parliamentarians witb criminal cases has risen in the l 6m Lok Sabha, ,vith every mird MP-elect facing criminal charges, an anal ysis of their election affidavits has shown

An analysis of 541 of d1e 543 winning candidates b y l arional E lection Watch (1'1£\',J) and Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) showed diat 186 or 34 percent of me newl y-elected members have disclosed crinunal cases against themselves in their affidavits.

In 2009, 30 percent of d1e Lok Sabha rneruber.- had criu1inal cases registered against them This has now gone up b y four percent.

.According to a press release, of the 186 new members with declared criniinal cases, 112 (21 percem) declared "serious criminal cases," including those related to murder, attempt co mw-der, caus ing cmrnnw1al disbarmony, kidnapping, crimes against women etc.

Parry•wise, d1e largest 98 or 35 percent of the 281 winners from the BJP hav e in d1eir affidavits declared crinunal cases against themselves.

Eight of the 44 winners (18 percent) from die Congress, si_, of tlle 37 winners (16 percent) from the 1\.1.ADMK, 15 of the 18 winners (83 percent) from me Sb.iv Sena, and seven of the 34 winners (21 percent) of d1e Trinamool Congress also disclosed criminal cases against memselves.

The analysis also showed a rise in me nw11ber of crorepatis (mil.lionaires) in di e Lok Sabha over die 2009 elecrion.

The release said that of the winners analysed, 442 (82 percent) were croreparis and the number was 300 (58 percent) in 2009

The BJP has the highest number of crorepatis, die release said.

Of d1e candidates analysed, the average assets per winner was Rs 14.61 crore, whereas the average asset for each candidate was Rs 3. 16 crore.

The release also said one of the newly elected members had declared himself to be illiterate.

A total of 125 (23 percent) winners declared that they have an educational q u alification till Class 12 or below while 405 (15 percent) declared having an educational qualification of a graduate or above.

202 (37 percent) of the \vinning ?-.1Ps declared ilieir age to be between 25 ro 50 years, 298 (55 percent) declared their age to be between 51 and 70 and 41 (eight percent) declared d1ei.r age to be above 71.

61 (11 percent) of the newly elected members are women !ANS