Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation Report 2019–2020

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation Centre Report 2019-20

Imperial College Business School

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Contents

Foreword

3

Faculty

4

Research & professional staff

5

Visiting researchers

6

Our research

7

Publications

12

Book chapters

14

Our programmes

15

Funders

16

Imperial College Business School

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Facing new challenges in a changing world We have reached the end of a very turbulent year, in which the entire ecosystem of health research has experienced radical changes. I would like to take stock of the challenges we have faced at the Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation (CHEPI), reflect on what we have been able to achieve, and look forward to the new role the Centre can play in the future post-pandemic and post-Brexit world.

Based at Imperial College Business School and an integral part of the wider Imperial College research community, CHEPI has set itself the mission to research incentives and environments that encourage individuals and organisations to make healthenhancing decisions. This mission has remained at the forefront of our minds throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite unavoidable disruption, our work in established areas of interest for the centre has maintained, and even gathered, pace, thanks to the fantastic efforts of our faculty and staff. This includes work on the social and behavioural determinants of chronic non-communicable diseases; on the economic and social value of health; on health care labour markets; on innovation in health systems and medical care; on food environments and their impacts on people’s food choices and health; on price and non-price incentives for health and environmental sustainability. In those areas, we have continued to generate new findings and policy impacts from existing projects, and we have produced new research ideas to further expand the Centre’s project base. At the same time, we have been able to focus our efforts on understanding the health care and economic impacts of the pandemic and pandemic responses. This work has been complementary to that of the Faculty of Medicine and School of Public Health at Imperial College, with which CHEPI has consolidated its strong strategic partnerships.

Amid a major economic and employment crisis, and great uncertainty about the future, one of CHEPI’s most remarkable achievements has been the continuing growth of its research staff and volume of activity. However, this leaves no room for complacency. As other academic research centres, CHEPI faces an increasingly competitive research funding environment, in which priorities have been rapidly changing and in which new rules, yet to be written, will reshape access to key sources of funding for international research in health policy and economics.

This report illustrates the main developments in CHEPI’s work over the 2019 – 2020 academic year, up until the end of 2020, providing a snapshot of the people and projects that will take the Centre into a new phase of its existence.

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Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Faculty Prof. Franco Sassi

Prof. James Barlow

Centre Director, Professor of International Health Policy & Economics

Professor of Technology & Innovation Management (Healthcare)

Impacts of public policies to tackle major chronic diseases and their predisposing risk factors, including poor nutrition, physical inactivity, alcohol and tobacco use, environmental and social determinants.

Adoption, implementation and sustainability of innovation in healthcare systems.

Dr. Benita Cox

Dr. Katharina Hauck

Academic Director, MSc International Health Management

Reader in Health Economics (School of Public Health) Economics of HIV/AIDS, the impact of epidemics, the evaluation of health interventions, and the role of behaviour in the transmission of infectious disease.

Dr. Marisa Miraldo

Dr. Laure de Preux

Associate Professor in Health Economics

Assistant Professor

Determinants of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, determinants of the adoption and diffusion of innovation and on the impact of policy and regulation on pharmaceutical firms’ strategies.

Prof. Dame Carol Propper

Dr. Pedro Rosa Dias

Professor of Economics (DBE, FBA International Fellow, NAM, President of the Royal Economic Society)

Associate Professor of Health Economics

Impact of incentives on the quality and productivity of healthcare, the effect of market incentives on the production of public services and the impact of environmental factors on health.

Prof. Peter Smith

Assistant Professor of Health Operations

Emeritus Professor of Health Policy

Imperial College Business School

Health economics in developing countries, inequalities in health and healthcare and the effects of educational policy on health outcomes.

Dr. Reza Skandari

Optimising healthcare design decisions, ranging from treatment plans to health policies.

Determinants of health, the evaluation of climate change related policies, and the impact of climate and pollution on health and the healthcare sector.

Economic aspects of health systems, global health, and the productivity and public finance of health services.

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Research staff As of February 2021

Dr. Elisabetta Aurino

Alijadallah (Ali) Belabess

Imperial College Research Fellow

Research Associate

Dr. Carmen Huerta

Dr. Dian Kusuma

Research Associate

Research Associate

Dr. Danying (Tara) Li

Dr. Elisa Pineda

Research Associate

Research Associate

Joint appointment with the Centre for Mathematics of Precision Healthcare

Joint appointment with the School of Public Health

Dr. Cristina Taddei

Dr. Yuexian (Harry) Tang

Imperial College Research Fellow

Research Associate

Dr. Veronica Toffolutti

Dr. Israel Vieira

Advanced Research Fellow

Senior Software Engineer

Professional staff Dr. Jack Olney

Ella Hattey

Centre Manager

Project Coordinator

Lorraine Sheehy

Rose Tudball

Centre Administrator

Programme Manager, MSc International Health Management

Imperial College Business School

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Visiting researchers

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Barrenho, Eliana — OECD Belloni, Annalisa — Public Health England Burn, Samantha — Harvard University Chambers, Tim — University of Otago Dechezlepretre, Antoine — OECD Graff, Hannah — HealthLumen Lande, Simon — HealthLumen Pau, Sara — University of Cagliari Rose, Chris — The University of Queensland Saunders, Rob — University College London Shaikh, Mujaheed — Hertie School, Berlin Shields, Michael — Monash University Warner, Max — Institute for Fiscal Studies Watson, Karen — Strategic Communications Consultant Webber, Laura — HealthLumen Wellappuli, Nalinda — Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka Xu, Michael — HealthLumen Zaranko, Ben — Institute for Fiscal Studies van Gestel, Raf — Erasmus University, Rotterdam

CHEPI’s collaborations across Imperial College London

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Imperial College Business School

Our research

Contacts

COVID-19 pandemic response

• Dr Marisa Miraldo (m.miraldo@imperial.ac.uk) • Dr Laure de Preux (l.depreux@imperial.ac.uk)

Through primary research, patient and public engagement, and policy involvement, CHEPI has supported a number of initiatives in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Dr Katharina Hauck (k.hauck@imperial.ac.uk)

Since early March, our researchers have contributed to the reports published by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, including the development of the Pandemic Planner, a hospital planning tool designed to estimate changes in hospital capacity, in response to different interventions dictating how patients are to be managed.

We also supported the development of an economic model to evaluate the trade-off between reducing transmission, keeping schools and universities open, and stimulating the economy.

This work identified strategies for economic growth and less economically productive sectors that could be prioritised for closure to reduce transmission.

As the NHS began scaling up elective surgery, our team developed models to optimise scheduling to minimise loss of life. This model allocates individual beds in hospitals to either “cold” (preplanned) hospitalisations or to emergency admissions. Using data from NHS England we then demonstrated how optimising scheduling can both reduce costs and lives lost compared to current policies.

The pandemic has also highlighted social and health inequalities across different socioeconomic groups. Dr Laure de Preux has obtained a grant from the Imperial College donor-led COVID-19 fund to explore how compliance to mobility restrictions during lockdown has varied across the country by different socioeconomic groups, and to understand the impact of this variance on health.

Public engagement is also extremely important to gain contextual insights into how the pandemic is impacting the population. As part of a Wellcome Trust-funded initiative, Prof. Franco Sassi contributed to a Wellcome Trust working group tasked with the development of a standardised questionnaire on the impacts of COVID-19 and pandemic control measures in a range of health, social and economic domains, designed to be administered primarily in Wellcome Trust funded cohorts established in countries at different levels of income.

CHEPI is also working in low and middleincome countries, to understand the repercussions of the pandemic on families and particularly children in disadvantaged circumstances.

Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Policy Impact Prof. Dame Carol Propper has been appointed to President Emmanuel Macron’s expert commission on major post-coronavirus economic challenges, chaired by Nobel Prize winner Jean Tirole and former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. As president of the Royal Economic Society, Prof. Dame Propper has Page 7 ofalso 18 been involved in the establishment of the ESRC Economics Observatory where she is a lead editor.

Addressing the global challenges of obesity and nutrition Obesity and nutrition have risen to the top of the health policy agenda in countries at all levels of income. CHEPI is at the forefront of research on policy approaches to mitigate the health and societal impacts of these rising global challenges.

Prof. Franco Sassi leads a European Horizon 2020 consortium of 31 organisations across 16 countries, spanning academia, civil society and government, aimed at understanding the determinants of childhood obesity and evaluating actions to address them. The STOP (Science and Technology in childhood Obesity Policy) project contains 10 parallel streams of work, ranging from basic science research to policy analysis and stakeholder engagement.

The project includes a randomised controlled trial in Sweden, Spain and Romania to test the effectiveness of a novel digital intervention to address obesity among young children from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds. The project is also funding start-ups developing innovative ways of addressing childhood obesity.

For example, Pennotec, a Welsh company, is pioneering the use of apple fibre paste as a fat and sugar replacement in school meals; FlavorID, is using artificial intelligence to understand food preferences and nudge consumer behaviour towards healthier choices; and SHIFT, a Londonbased meal delivery startup, are aiming to provide an innovative service of cold-delivered meals designed to provide healthier delivery options at affordable prices for low-income families.

In collaboration with Imperial College School of Public Health and with the University of Bristol, CHEPI has received funding from the Health Foundation for two projects in the context of a new programme on the Social and Economic Value of Health. These projects focus on children and on

the environments in which they live, looking at ways in which obesity, and obesogenic influences from the environment, may affect human capital development. In the first project, we are analysing data from three longitudinal cohort studies in the UK and leveraging genetic and epigenetic biomarkers to explore causal pathways from childhood obesity to school performance, educational attainment, labour market and social participation outcomes. In the second project, Children’s Places, we are assessing whether healthier and less obesogenic environments can promote human capital development not only in individual children, but also in the wider community of which they are part. This work will actively engage teenagers using focus groups to understand the challenges they face in leading a healthy life.

We have also explored the role of nutrition as an enabler of human capital development in SubSaharan Africa (Ghana) and in South Asia (India) through the work of Elisabetta Aurino, one of two Imperial College Research Fellows based at CHEPI, also supported by The British Academy and UKRI. Elisabetta’s work in this area includes the authorship of key chapters on child health and nutrition in the 3rd edition of the Disease Control Priorities publication.

Contacts • Prof. Franco Sassi (f.sassi@imperial.ac.uk)

CHEPI is collaborating with HealthLumen, an innovative start-up in the modelling space aiming to address large population health challenges with cutting-edge microsimulation modelling.

Policy simulation tool

Alijadallah Belabess and Dr Israel Vieira are leading the development of a microsimulation tool to evaluate Imperial College Business School the impact of policies targeting childhood obesity in European settings.

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

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Tackling chronic non-communicable diseases With heart disease, stroke and diabetes resulting in millions of deaths worldwide each year, CHEPI is working in South Asia, one of the most densely populated regions of the world, where these conditions place an enormous financial burden on the individuals they afflict, their families and the societies they live in, thus contributing to poverty, inequality and social instability. Through an NIHRfunded Global Health Research Unit, our team are collaborating closely with experts and clinical institutions in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to address these issues.

Our environmental mapping work, involving sending researchers into the field to collect information and photographs of retail outlets near homes and schools in South Asia has illustrated the majority of outlets heavily advertise unhealthy foods. Based on these findings, we are now piloting an intervention to encourage behaviour change among children, and their parents, to adopt a healthier lifestyle.

While the most prevalent diseases often attract the most attention, given their burden on society, the

collective impact of rare diseases — those affecting only a small proportion of the population — is often overlooked. As part of a European-wide consortium, CHEPI is analysing historical Research & Development activity from across the pharmaceutical sector to highlight inequalities in drug development pipelines.

In a separate project funded by the Department for Education on behalf of the Social Mobility Commission, a team of researchers led by Carmen Huerta found that obesity is one of several physical health conditions associated with reduced opportunities for moving up the social ladder during the life course, and with an increased risk of moving down the social ladder, in the United Kingdom.

Contacts • Dr Marisa Miraldo (m.miraldo@imperial.ac.uk) • Dr Dian Kusuma (d.kusuma@imperial.ac.uk) • Dr Elisa Pineda (e.pineda@imperial.ac.uk)

Protecting our environment The impact of the environment on health is another area of focus for CHEPI. Following the development of a chapter for the Chief Medical Officers Annual Report, and the development of a tool to highlight the cost of air pollution, our researchers have been collaborating with colleagues in the School of Public Health and the Centre for Environmental Policy to understand the effect of climate change and air pollution on behaviour and healthcare utilisation. We are also

evaluating the impact of climate change policies on mental health with the aim of ensuring future policy decisions are informed by research on their implications for population health more broadly.

Contacts • Dr Laure de Preux (l.depreux@imperial.ac.uk)

A multi-disciplinary partnership for research on food systems and nutrition CHEPI continues to support Imperial’s response to emerging global challenges in food, nutrition and health by collaborating closely with the Centre for Translational Nutrition and Food Research, led by Imperial’s lead nutritionist, Prof. Gary Frost, where it leads a special interest group on food environments.

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Improving public health communication The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the need for clear, consistent and effective messaging on public health. With the spread of misinformation together with rising numbers of people opposed to vaccinations, it is the role of public health experts to successfully communicate complex facts and information.

Leveraging real world data, Drink Up demonstrated the benefits of a structured multistakeholder social marketing strategy, involving over 60 corporations, NGOs, municipalities, federal administrative agencies, retailers and cultural influencers, to enact behaviour change and drive demand for healthier choices.

For several years, CHEPI has been championing the use of cutting-edge marketing techniques to promote healthier behaviour. In 2020, we launched our first executive training programme for public and private sector actors, providing them with tools to effectively influence consumer behaviour and improve population health.

Sessions were delivered by marketing and health policy experts at Imperial College, colleagues from the World Health Organisation, and industry leaders from Nielsen Media and Nielsen Neuroscience, who illustrated the real-world impact and influence of consumer giants on our behaviour. Participants came from all sectors including government, non-profit organisations, academic and research institutes, start-ups, and health care providers.

Over four days, our team led 31 participants from 15 countries through an in-depth online course on effective social marketing techniques based on the methodology used by the Drink Up campaign, an innovative marketing campaign in the US supported by the then First Lady, Michelle Obama, to encourage the population to drink more water.

Contacts • Prof. Franco Sassi (f.sassi@imperial.ac.uk) • Karen Watson (karen.watson@imperial.ac.uk)

Creating Demand for Health “Communication is a science, and cutting through the noise is a major challenge. With industry giants like Coca Cola and Nike influencing our behaviour and choices, often without our knowledge, it is vitally important to understand commercial marketing techniques to effectively communicate public health messages” Karen Watson, Chief Strategist behind Drink Up and Honorary Research Fellow at CHEPI

Page 10 of 18 2020 online cohort

Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Innovation in healthcare As unforeseen events — such as pandemics, heatwaves or the financial crash — shock our healthcare system, CHEPI’s researchers are understanding how these disturbances catalyse change. Using the latest high-resolution anonymised individual-level datasets describing healthcare, our team are able to answer questions about the impact of these shocks on the delivery of public services to understand why quality of care differs across the country.

CHEPI is also a key collaborator in the Department of Health and Social Care-funded Policy Innovation Research Unit (PIRU), which aims to improve evidence-based policy making and the implementation of healthcare innovations across the NHS.

The output of this work informs the development of policies to increase the adoption of medical innovations, increasing the quality of the labour market and improving the design of healthcare systems.

• Prof. James Barlow (j.barlow@imperial.ac.uk)

Contacts

New fiscal policies for health The use of fiscal policies, primarily health taxes, to create incentives for healthy consumption is one of the core themes in CHEPI’s work.

An increasing number of governments throughout the globe have taken up the idea that consumption taxes can be used to pursue goals of societal value, such as health and environmental sustainability. While the health rationale for taxes on tobacco products and alcohol beverages has gained further strength, health taxes have progressively expanded to food and non-alcoholic beverages contributing to imbalanced diets and excessive intakes of nutrients such as sugar, fat and salt.

Researchers at CHEPI have worked in close collaboration with Public Health England and with the Government of Portugal to evaluate the

impacts of some of the most interesting examples of taxes on beverages and foods containing added sugar, and subsidies on fruit and vegetables, in UK Overseas Territories and on sugar-sweetened beverages in Portugal. This research has relied on a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, including analyses of retail and consumer panel data to estimate changes in prices and consumption following the introduction of the relevant taxes.

Contacts • Prof. Franco Sassi (f.sassi@imperial.ac.uk) • Dr Elisa Pineda (e.pineda@imperial.ac.uk) • Alexa Segal (a.segal17@imperial.ac.uk)

Working for health and environmental sustainability CHEPI is working with the newly established Leonardo Centre, led by Prof. Maurizio Zollo at Imperial College Business School, to explore how improvements in employee health contribute to the sustainability of business.

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Publications Peer-reviewed publications between October 2019 and December 2020 1.

Abbaspour Kasgari H, Moradi S, Shabani AM, Babamahmoodi F, Davoudi Badabi AR, Davoudi L, Alikhani A, Hedayatizadeh Omran A, Saeedi M, Merat S, Simmons B, Wentzel H. Evaluation of the efficacy of sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir in combination with ribavirin for hospitalized COVID-19 patients with moderate disease compared with standard care: a single-centre, randomized controlled trial. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. 2020 Nov;75(11):3373-8.

2.

Adisasmito W, Amir V, Atin A, Megraini A, Kusuma D. Density of cigarette retailers around educational facilities in Indonesia. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. 2020 Aug 1;24(8):770-5.

3.

Adisasmito W, Amir V, Atin A, Megraini A, Kusuma D. Geographic and socioeconomic disparity in cardiovascular risk factors in Indonesia: analysis of the Basic Health Research 2018. BMC public health. 2020 Dec;20(1):1-3.

4.

Ahsan A, Wiyono NH, Veruswati M, Adani N, Kusuma D, Amalia N. Comparison of tobacco import and tobacco control in five countries: lessons learned for Indonesia. Globalization and Health. 2020 Dec;16(1):1-8.

5.

Aurino E, Gelli A, Adamba C, Osei-Akoto I, Alderman H. Food for thought? Experimental evidence on the learning impacts of a large-scale school feeding program. Journal of Human Resources. 2020 Dec 14:1019-515R1.

6.

Aurino E, Tranchant JP, Sekou Diallo A, Gelli A. School feeding or general food distribution? Quasi-experimental evidence on the educational impacts of emergency food assistance during conflict in Mali. The Journal of Development Studies. 2019 Dec 13;55(sup1):7-28.

7.

Aurino E, Wolf S, Tsinigo E. Household food insecurity and early childhood development: Longitudinal evidence from Ghana. PloS ONE. 2020 Apr 3;15(4):e0230965.

8.

Aurino, E. et al. Nutritional Status from 1 to 15 Years and Adolescent Learning for Boys and Girls in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. Population Research and Policy Review 38.6 (2019): 899-931.

9.

Azupogo F, Abizari AR, Aurino E, Gelli A, Osendarp SJ, Bras H, Feskens EJ, Brouwer ID. Malnutrition, hypertension risk, and correlates: An analysis of the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey data for 15–19 years adolescent boys and girls. Nutrients. 2020 Sep;12(9):2737.

10. Banks J, Karjalainen H, Propper C. Recessions and health: The long‐term health consequences of responses to the coronavirus. Fiscal Studies. 2020 Jun;41(2):337-44.

11. Bloom CI, de Preux L, Sheikh A, Quint JK. Health and cost impact of stepping down asthma medication for UK patients, 2001–2017: A populationbased observational study. PLoS Medicine. 2020 Jul 21;17(7):e1003145.

12. Chambers T, Millett C, Sassi F. New Zealand’s Public Services Act: a policy opportunity for cross-government action on unhealthy products.

Perspectives in Public Health. 2020 May;140(3):144-5.

13. Chambers T, Sassi F. Unhealthy sponsorship of sport Tougher and more comprehensive regulation is long overdue. BMJ. 2019 Dec 04;367:l6718.

14. Chandiwana NC, Chersich M, Venter WF, Akpomiemie G, Hill A, Simmons B, Lockman S, Serenata CM, Fairlie L, Moorhouse MA. Unexpected interactions between dolutegravir and folate: randomised trial evidence from South Africa. AIDS (London, England). 2020 Oct 20.

15. Cisnetto V, Barlow J. The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication. Research Policy. 2020 Apr 1;49(3):103917.

16. Cox B, Luyten LJ, Dockx Y, Provost E, Madhloum N, De Boever P, Neven KY, Sassi F, Sleurs H, Vrijens K, Vineis P. Association Between Maternal Prepregnancy Body Mass Index and Anthropometric Parameters, Blood Pressure, and Retinal Microvasculature in Children Age 4 to 6 Years. JAMA Network Open. 2020 May 1;3(5):e204662-.

17. Cylus J, Smith PC. The economy of wellbeing: what is it and what are the implications for health?. BMJ. 2020 Jun 16;369.

18. Daunt A, Perez-Guzman PN, Liew F, Hauck K, Costelloe CE, Thursz MR, Cooke G, Nayagam S. Validity of the UK early access to medicines scheme criteria for Remdesivir use in patients with COVID-19 disease. The Journal of Infection. 2020 Oct 1.

19. Daunt A, Perez‐Guzman PN, Cafferkey J, Manalan K, Cooke G, White PJ, Hauck K, Mallia P, Nayagam S. Factors associated with reattendance to emergency services following COVID‐19 hospitalization. Journal of Medical Virology. 2020 Oct 12.

20. Deshpande A, Miller-Petrie MK, Lindstedt PA, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Blacker BF, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Kusuma D. The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis. The Lancet Global Health. 2020 Sep 1;8(9):e1186-94.

21. Eslami G, Mousaviasl S, Radmanesh E, Jelvay S, Bitaraf S, Simmons B, Wentzel H, Hill A, Sadeghi A, Freeman J, Salmanzadeh S. The impact of sofosbuvir/daclatasvir or ribavirin in patients with severe COVID-19. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. 2020 Nov;75(11):3366-72.

22. Flower B, Brown JC, Simmons B, Moshe M, Frise R, Penn R, Kugathasan R, Petersen C, Daunt A, Ashby D, Riley S. Clinical and laboratory evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for use in a national COVID-19 seroprevalence survey. Thorax. 2020 Dec 1;75(12):1082-8.

23. Fu H, Wang H, Xi X, Boonyasiri A, Wang Y, Hinsley W, Fraser KJ, McCabe R, Mesa DO, Skarp J, Hauck K, Ledda A. A database for the epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020 Oct 31.

24. Goiana-da-Silva F, Cruz-e-Silva D, Allen L, Nunes AM, Calhau C, Rito A, Bento A, Miraldo M, Darzi A. Portugal’s voluntary food reformulation agreement and the WHO reformulation targets. Journal of Global Health. 2019 Dec;9(2).

25. Goiana-da-Silva F, Cruz-e-Silva D, Bartlett O, Vasconcelos J, Morais Nunes A, Ashrafian H, Miraldo M, Machado MD, Araújo F, Darzi A. The ethics of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages to improve public health. Frontiers in Public Health. 2020 Apr 16;8:110.

26. Goiana-da-Silva F, Severo M, Cruz e Silva D, Gregório MJ, Allen LN, Muc M, Morais Nunes A, Torres D, Miraldo M, Ashrafian H, Rito A. Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study. PLoS Medicine. 2020 Mar 12;17(3):e1003036.

27. GoodSmith MS, Skandari MR, Huang ES, Naylor RN. The Impact of Biomarker Screening and Cascade Genetic Testing on the Cost-Effectiveness of MODY Genetic Testing. Diabetes Care. 2019 Dec 1;42(12):2247-55.

28. Gravelle H, Liu D, Propper C, Santos R. Spatial competition and quality: Evidence from the English family doctor market. Journal of Health Economics.

2019 Dec 1;68:102249.

29. Gressier M, Sassi F, Frost G. Healthy Foods and Healthy Diets. How Government Policies Can Steer Food Reformulation. Nutrients. 2020 Jul;12(7): 30. Gressier M, Swinburn B, Frost G, Segal AB, Sassi F. What is the impact of food reformulation on individuals' behaviour, nutrient intakes and health status? A systematic review of empirical evidence. Obesity Reviews. 2020 Oct 6.

31. Hallett T, Hauck K. The Global Fund impact. The Lancet. 2019 Nov 9;394(10210):1708-9.

32. Hapsari D, Nainggolan O, Kusuma D. Hotspots and Regional Variation in Smoking Prevalence Among 514 Districts in Indonesia: Analysis of Basic Health Research 2018. Global Journal of Health Science. 2020;12(10):1-32.

33. Hauck K, Miraldo M, Singh S. Integrating motherhood and employment: A 22-year analysis investigating impacts of US workplace breastfeeding policy. SSM-Population Health. 2020 Apr 11:100580.

34. Hauck K. The costs of home-based HIV testing and counselling in sub-Saharan Africa and its association with testing yield: a literature review. African Journal of AIDS Research. 2019 Dec 6;18(4):324-31.

35. Heard JM, Vrinten C, Schlander M, Bellettato CM, van Lingen C, Scarpa M. Availability, accessibility and delivery to patients of the 28 orphan medicines approved by the European Medicine Agency for hereditary metabolic diseases in the MetabERN network. Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases. 2020 Dec;15(1):1-

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Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation 36. Howe LD, Kanayalal R, Harrison S, Beaumont RN, Davies AR, Frayling TM, Davies NM, Hughes A, Jones SE, Sassi F, Wood AR. Effects of body mass index on relationship status, social contact and socio-economic position: Mendelian randomization and within-sibling study in UK Biobank.

International Journal of Epidemiology. 2020 Aug;49(4):1173-84.

37. Isaranuwatchai W, Teerawattananon Y, Archer RA, Luz A, Sharma M, Rattanavipapong W, Anothaisintawee T, Bacon RL, Bhatia T, Bump J, Chalkidou K, Smith PC. Prevention of non-communicable disease: best buys, wasted buys, and contestable buys. BMJ. 2020 Jan 28;368.

38. Janke K, Johnston DW, Propper C, Shields MA. The causal effect of education on chronic health conditions in the UK. Journal of Health Economics.

2020 Mar 1;70:102252.

39. Lee T, Propper C, Stoye G. Medical Labour Supply and the Production of Healthcare. Fiscal Studies. 2019 Dec;40(4):621-61.

40. Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17. The Lancet. Global health. 2020 Sep;8(9):e1162.

41. Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, Knight M, Barthelemy CM, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Kusuma D, Abedi A, Abolhassani H. Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1250-84.

42. Martin S, Siciliani L, Smith P. Socioeconomic inequalities in waiting times for primary care across ten OECD countries. Social Science & Medicine.

2020 Oct 1;263:113230.

43. McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D’Aeth JC, Løchen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam S, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle A, Perez-Guzman PN. Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC medicine. 2020 Dec;18(1):1-2.

44. McGuire F, Revill P, Twea P, Mohan S, Manthalu G, Smith PC. Allocating resources to support universal health coverage: development of a geographical funding formula in Malawi. BMJ Global Health. 2020 Sep 1;5(9):e002763.

45. Megatsari H, Ridlo IA, Amir V, Kusuma D. Visibility and hotspots of outdoor tobacco advertisement around educational facilities without an advertising ban: Geospatial analysis in Surabaya City, Indonesia. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation. 2019;5.

46. Micah AE, Su Y, Bachmeier SD, Chapin A, Cogswell IE, Crosby SW, Cunningham B, Harle AC, Maddison ER, Moitra M, Sahu M. Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3. The Lancet. 2020 Apr 23.

47. Miksanek TJ, Skandari MR, Ham SA, Lee WW, Press VG, Brown MT, Laiteerapong N. The Productivity Requirements of Implementing a Medical Scribe Program. Annals of Internal Medicine. 2020 Oct 6.

48. Milinkovic A, Singh S, Simmons B, Pozniak A, Boffito M, Nwokolo N. Multimodality assessment of sleep outcomes in people living with HIV performed using validated sleep questionnaires. International Journal of STD & AIDS. 2020 Sep;31(10):99649. Murray CJ, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Abedi P, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Kusuma D, Aboyans V. Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019. The Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1135-59.

50. Murray CJ, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Kusuma D, Abegaz KH. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1223-49 51. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries. International Journal of Epidemiology.

2020 Feb 1;49(1):173-192.

52. Ni M, Borsci S, Walne S, Mclister AP, Buckle P, Barlow JG, Hanna GB. The Lean and Agile Multi-dimensional Process (LAMP)–a new framework for rapid and iterative evidence generation to support health-care technology design and development. Expert Review of Medical Devices. 2020 Apr 2;17(4):277-88 53. Nurjanah N, Manglapy YM, Handayani S, Ahsan A, Sutomo R, Dewi FS, Chang P, Kusuma D. Density of tobacco advertising around schools. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. 2020 Jul 1;24(7):674-80.

54. Ochalek J, Manthalu G, Smith PC. Squaring the cube: Towards an operational model of optimal universal health coverage. Journal of Health Economics. 2020 Jan 16:102282.

55. Perez-Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont MD, Løchen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C., Hauck K. Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in a multiethnic London national health service trust: a retrospective cohort study. Clinical Infectious Diseaases. 2020 Aug 7:1-1.

56. Priyono B, Hafidhah B, Wihardini W, Nuryunawati R, Rahmadi FM, Kusuma D. Removal of point-of-sale tobacco displays in Bogor city, Indonesia: A spatial analysis. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation. 2020;6 57. Propper C, Stoye G, Zaranko B. The wider impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the NHS. Fiscal Studies. 2020 Jun;41(2):345-56.

58. Puspikawati SI, Dewi DM, Astutik E, Kusuma D, Melaniani S, Sebayang SK. Density of outdoor food and beverage advertising around gathering place for children and adolescent in East Java, Indonesia. Public Health Nutrition. 2020 Dec 2:1-22.

59. Qin VM, McPake B, Raban MZ, Cowling TE, Alshamsan R, Chia KS, Smith PC, Atun R, Lee JT. Rural and urban differences in health system performance among older Chinese adults: cross-sectional analysis of a national sample. BMC Health Services Research. 2020 Dec;20:1-4 60. Reiner Jr RC, Wiens KE, Deshpande A, Baumann MM, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Troeger CE, Earl L, Munro SB, Abate D, Abbastabar H., Kusuma D. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. 2020 Jun 6;395(10239):1779-801.

61. Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, Addolorato G, Ammirati E, Baddour LM, Barengo NC, Beaton AZ, Benjamin EJ, Benziger CP, Kusuma D, Bonny A. Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: update from the GBD 2019 study. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 2020 Dec 9.

62. Sadeghi A, Ali Asgari A, Norouzi A, Kheiri Z, Anushirvani A, Montazeri M, Hosamirudsai H, Afhami S, Akbarpour E, Aliannejad R, Simmons B, Radmard AR. Sofosbuvir and daclatasvir compared with standard of care in the treatment of patients admitted to hospital with moderate or severe coronavirus infection (COVID-19): a randomized controlled trial. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. 2020 Nov;75(11):3379-85.

63. Schaefer R, Thomas R, Robertson L, Eaton JW, Mushati P, Nyamukapa C, Hauck K, Gregson S. Spillover HIV prevention effects of a cash transfer trial in East Zimbabwe: evidence from a cluster-randomised trial and general-population survey. BMC Public Health. 2020 Dec;20(1):1-20.

64. Schott W, Aurino E, Penny ME, Behrman JR. Time use and sexual maturity− related indicators differentially predict youth body mass indices, Peruvian girls versus boys. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2019 Dec 24 65. Segal AB, Huerta MC, Aurino E, Sassi F. The impact of childhood obesity on human capital in high‐income countries: A systematic review. Obesity Reviews. 2020 Jul 27 66. Siedner MJ, Moorhouse MA, Simmons B, de Oliveira T, Lessells R, Giandhari J, Kemp SA, Chimukangara B, Akpomiemie G, Serenata CM, Venter WD. Reduced efficacy of HIV-1 integrase inhibitors in patients with drug resistance mutations in reverse transcriptase. Nature Communications. 2020 Dec 1;11(1):1-0.

67. Simmons B, Wentzel H, Mobarak S, Eslami G, Sadeghi A, Asgari AA, Kasgari HA, Fakheri HT, Merat S, Hill A. Sofosbuvir/daclatasvir regimens for the treatment of COVID-19: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. 2020 Oct 16.

68. Sivasampu S, Teh XR, Lim YM, Ong SM, Ang SH, Husin M, Khamis N, Jaafar FS, Wong WJ, Shanmugam S, Ismail SA, Kusuma D. Study protocol on Enhanced Primary Healthcare (EnPHC) interventions: a quasi-experimental controlled study on diabetes and hypertension management in primary healthcare clinics. Primary Health Care Research & Development. 2020;21 69. Sounderajah V, Patel V, Varatharajan L, Harling L, Normahani P, Symons J, Barlow J, Darzi A, Ashrafian H. Are disruptive innovations recognised in the healthcare literature? A systematic review. BMJ Innovations. 2020 Sep 4:bmjinnov-2020

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Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation 70. Stopard IJ, Hauck K, Hallett TB. The Influence of Constraints on the Efficient Allocation of Resources for HIV Prevention: Authors' Response. AIDS (London, England). 2019 Oct 1;33(12):1950-1 71. Trisnowati H, Kusuma D, Ahsan A, Kurniasih DE, Padmawati RS. Smoke-free home initiative in Bantul, Indonesia: Development and preliminary evaluation. Tobacco Prevention & Cessation. 2019;5 72. Venter WD, Sokhela S, Simmons B, Moorhouse M, Fairlie L, Mashabane N, Serenata C, Akpomiemie G, Masenya M, Qavi A, Chandiwana N. Dolutegravir with emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate versus efavirenz, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for initial treatment of HIV-1 infection (ADVANCE): week 96 results from a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial. The Lancet HIV. 2020 Oct 1;7(10):e666-76.

73. Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi M, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Kusuma D, Abdollahi M. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1204-22.

74. Vrinten C, Stoffel S, Dodd RH, Waller J, Lyratzopoulos Y, von Wagner C. Cancer worry frequency vs. intensity and self-reported colorectal cancer screening uptake: A population-based study. Journal of Medical Screening. 2019 Dec;26(4):169-78 75. Wahidin M, Hidayat MS, Arasy RA, Amir V, Kusuma D. Geographic distribution, socio-economic disparity and policy determinants of smoke-free policy adoption in Indonesia. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. 2020 Apr 1;24(4):38376. Wahyuti W, Hasairin SK, Mamoribo SN, Ahsan A, Kusuma D. Monitoring Compliance and Examining Challenges of a Smoke-free Policy in Jayapura, Indonesia. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. 2019 Nov;52(6):427.

77. Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MR, Kusuma D, Abushouk AI. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020 Oct 17;396(10258):1160-203.

78. Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Johnson KB, Baumann MM, Schaeffer LE, Abbastabar Sr H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Kusuma D. Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17. The Lancet Global Health. 2020 Aug 1;8(8):e1038-60.

79. Yunarman S, Zarkani A, Walid A, Ahsan A, Kusuma D. Compliance with Smoke-Free Policy and Challenges in Implementation: Evidence from Bengkulu, Indonesia. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention. 2020 Sep 1;21(9):2647-51.

Book chapters 1.

Moreno-Serra R, Hole A, Smith PC, Berman P. A New Approach to Measuring Health Development: From National Income Toward Health Coverage (and Beyond). World Scientific Series in Global Health Economics and Public Policy. 2020:239. DOI: 10.1142/9789813272378_0009.

2.

Jakab M, Smith PC. Cross-sectoral policies to address non-communicable diseases. Non-communicable disease prevention: best buys, wasted buys and contestable buys. Open Book Publishers. 2019:129-46. ISBN: ISBN: 978-1-78374-863-1.

Imperial College Business School

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CHEPI in 2019

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Our programmes MSc International Health Management For the last 15 years, our MSc in International Health Management course has provided students with the essential skills needed to launch their career in the global healthcare sector. Led by Dr Benita Cox, the 2019-20 cohort of 70 students were predominantly female (77%) and joined us from outside the EU (73%).

Executive Education Delivering Executive Education has been challenging in this climate of remote work, but Prof. James Barlow led and contributed to several programmes, including the "Advanced Management Programme on Health Innovation" in partnership with Copenhagen Business School and IESE Business School, and the Imperial College Academic Health Science Centre Foresight Leadership Programme.

Doctoral programme Directed by Prof. Carol Propper, Imperial College Business School’s PhD programme provides five years’ of funding and world-class supervision to 15 candidates each year. CHEPI continues to benefit enormously from the PhD programme and currently hosts 11 PhD students:

Petya Atanasova

Mathilde Gressier

Children’s nutritional choices and behavioural interventions for food behaviour change

Impact of food product reformulation on population health

Christa Hansen

Krystal Lau

Economic impacts of HIV in subsaharan Africa

Influenza pandemics and the economics of flu vaccination behaviour

Shutian Liu

Narges Mohammadi

PhD title TBC

Optimal hearing loss monitoring and infection treatment planning for patients with chronic lung disease

Dheeya Rizmie

Alexa Segal

Environmental risk factors, health systems and healthy lifestyle factors

Impact of childhood obesity on future human capital development

Bryony Simmons

Niloofar Zamani Foroushani

Impact of access to medicine policies in low and middle-income countries

PhD title TBC

Zhengnan Zhu Patient movement, prescription behaviour and innovation diffusion

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Imperial College Business School

Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Our funders • Arts & Humanities Research Board • British Academy • Department for Education • Department of Health and Social Care • EIT Health • Economic & Social Research Council • European Commission • European Research Council • Health Foundation • National Institute of Health Research • Public Health England • UK Research & Innovation

Imperial College Business School

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Imperial College Business School South Kensington Campus London SW7 2AZ United Kingdom

T: +44 (0)20 7594 9173 E: health.economics@imperial.ac.uk W: imperial.ac.uk/business-school/health-economics Imperial College Business School

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Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation

Imperial College Business School

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