IISS Newsletter May 2014

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May 2014

IISS Fullerton Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Russia–Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

IISS Fullerton Lectures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Middle East and the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Discussion Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

IISS–US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Non-Proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . . 6

Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Latin American Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

The Second IISS Fullerton Forum

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a formation of ships during the 2010 Rim of the Pacific exercise (Scott Taylor/US Navy)

The IISS–Asia office held the second IISS Fullerton

ture was the participation of a substantial Chinese

ests and finding ‘common ground for stability and

Forum: Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting at the

People’s Liberation Army delegation, including

prosperity’ lay in ‘platforms upon which to anchor

Fullerton Hotel in Singapore from 12–14 January.

two two-star officers. Among others, there were

relations’. In Dr Ng’s view it is necessary to ‘redou-

The meeting brought together approximately 60

also strong US and Japanese delegations.

ble our efforts in engagement and diplomacy to

delegates from more than 20 of the countries that

Dr Ng’s keynote address discussed positions

build mutual trust’. He also said that Singapore

regularly participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue;

and aspirations with regard to regional security of

believed in ‘fostering public engagement through

approximately two-thirds of the delegates were

the United States, China, Japan, India and ASEAN,

an open and inclusive regional security architec-

governmental, and the remainder from think

and highlighted the concurrence of ‘nationalist

ture’. Moving beyond dialogue, ‘there must be

tanks and universities in the Asia-Pacific region.

ambitions, progressive military modernisation,

practical cooperation to build trust and cultivate

Participating IISS staff from London included Dr

and dynamic changes in power relations’ as the

habits of working together towards common goals.’

John Chipman, Adam Ward, James Hackett, and

context for recent developments in the region.

The ADMM-Plus, he said, had ‘entrenched itself as

Christian Le Mière. Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s

He pointed to ‘real concern’ over the potential for

a valuable platform for practical cooperation in the

Minister for Defence, delivered the keynote

miscalculation, and argued that the way forward

region’. However, he also noted that ADMM-Plus

address on the Monday morning. One notable fea-

in terms of accommodating diverse national inter-

armed forces ‘could perhaps have been more effec-

IISS–ASIA

SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE

FULLERTON LECTURES

JAPAN

EXPERTS

tive working together’ in response to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, as ‘these challenges point to the need for more coordinated, collective efforts.’ In conclusion, the minister said that Singapore looked forward to ‘enlightened leadership from major powers, including the US, China and Japan, to help achieve stability and progress for Asia and indeed, the world’. Debate in the Forum’s main sessions focused on the security perspectives of regional states, the potential for managing maritime tensions, and emerging modes of security collaboration. National delegations conducted numerous bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Forum. IISS Directing and Senior Staff also had bilateral meetings with the Chinese, US and Japanese delegations. IISS–Asia will hold the third IISS Fullerton Forum: Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting in early 2015. Watch a video and read a transcript of Dr Ng Eng Hen’s 2014 Keynote Address.

Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen

IISS Fullerton Lectures: Japan and International Cooperation

ASEAN leaders line up for a photo session at Akasaka State Guesthouse in Tokyo, Japan, December 2013 (Kimimasa Mayama/AFP/Getty)

Ichita Yamamoto, Minister of State for Ocean Policy and Territorial Integrity, Japan, gives the IISS Fullerton Lecture at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore

On 16 January, Ichita Yamamoto, Japan’s Minister for Ocean Policy and

to developing its maritime security cooperation with ASEAN countries,

Territorial Integrity, noted that the ASEAN–Japan Commemorative

noting bilateral arrangements with the Philippines and Vietnam, and also

Summit, convened the previous month in Tokyo to mark both four dec-

the role of the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy

ades of cooperation and a ‘fresh start to the next 40 years’ of partnership,

and Armed Robbery (ReCAAP). Japan also encourages efforts by ASEAN

had been ‘a great success’. Yamamoto used his IISS Fullerton Lecture,

states ‘to settle maritime disputes’ and to manage ‘controversies’ accord-

titled ‘Asia’s Prosperity and the Importance of Open Seas’, to name Japan’s

ing to international law. In addition, Minister Yamamoto said that Japan

partnership with ASEAN a ‘vital national interest’, highlighting the impor-

and ASEAN should ‘continue to work together to engage the United

tance of ASEAN in the revitalisation of Japan’s economy, which was the

States in Asia’.

focus of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2012–13 election campaign. Minister

On the question of challenges to Japan’s territorial integrity, the minis-

Yamamoto noted the ‘three arrows’ of the economic revival that has

ter explained that his approach was based on what he called ‘Yamamoto’s

become known as ‘Abenomics’: an aggressive monetary policy; a flexible

Three Principles’: the rule of law; the promotion of bilateral relations with

fiscal policy; and a growth strategy encouraging private-sector investment.

neighbouring countries; and ‘the strengthening of the regional community,

In his view, Abenomics had already begun to produce results, with a ‘dra-

whose members are becoming even more interdependent’. In his view,

matic’ rise in Japan’s stock prices during 2013. The year 2014 would be

these three principles also promise ‘sustained prosperity’ in Asia. In con-

‘crucial’ in determining the effectiveness of the third arrow of Abenomics.

clusion, Minister Yamamoto affirmed ‘Japan’s determination to continue

Minister Yamamoto argued that Japan and ASEAN need to advance

to walk the path of peace’, which inspired the second Abe government’s

and prosper together. However, an important condition for doing so is

policy of ‘Proactive Contribution to Peace’ based on the principle of inter-

the maintenance of seas that are ‘open and stable’, which is necessary to

national cooperation.

ensure the ‘free flow’ of people, goods and information. At the ASEAN–

The lecture was introduced and chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive

Japan Commemorative Summit, leaders agreed on ‘the necessity of

Director, IISS–Asia. The video and transcript of the event can be viewed

maintaining freedom of navigation as well as enhancing maritime secu-

on the IISS website. Read a full report by William Choong, IISS Shangri-La

rity’. The minister emphasised that Japan attaches particular importance

Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia Pacific Security.

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IISS NEWS

PHILIPPINES

FULLERTON LECTURES

IISS–ASIA

The Philippines and ASEAN On 7 February, Philippines’ Secretary of Finance, Cesar V. Purisima, opened his IISS Fullerton lecture by saying that ‘after around thirty years of mismanagement’, since 2010 the Philippines administration under President Benigno Aquino III has been determined to pursue good governance. This has had extremely positive consequences for the country’s economy, which is now growing more rapidly. Better governance has resulted in more confidence from the financial markets, leading to lower borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector. At the same time, Filipinos have become ‘more confident in the future and in the Philippines’, which has encouraged long-term investment, and longerterm commitments by the private sector. The government intends that

Cesar V. Purisima, Secretary of Finance, Philippines, gives the IISS Fullerton Lecture, 7 February 2014 at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore

when President Aquino leaves office in 2016, his administration’s achievements will be sustained. New legislation will make it difficult ‘to regress

grating financial markets will be an ‘essential step’ in support of ASEAN

to old habits’.

economic integration, and similar standards in education could also play

Purisima underlined what he called the Philippines’ ‘upsides’. He spoke of efforts to boost the country’s resource-extraction industries,

a useful role. While ‘true integration’ is still far away, harmonisation and convergence are necessary near-term goals.

though this would be on ‘a win-win and sustainable basis’. Tourism is

Purisima highlighted the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a ‘chal-

another important sector with great potential: since President Aquino took

lenge to ASEAN centrality, and therefore … to ASEAN itself’. He proposed

office, tourist arrivals have more than doubled. Improvements in irrigation

that ASEAN, rather than individual member states, should join the TPP,

and infrastructure will strengthen the agricultural sector, and will help lift

and pointed to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

large numbers of Filipinos out of poverty. In the south of the country, the

(RCEP), which did already envisage ASEAN as playing a leading role in

peace settlement in Mindanao will allow the region’s economic potential

pan-regional economic integration. Finally, Purisima drew attention to the

to be realised.

challenges posed by climate change, and the need for a ‘collective effort’ in

Another ‘upside’ for the Philippines, according to Purisima, is the

response. In conclusion, he argued for a concerted regional effort to make

increasing integration of ASEAN. Simplifying rules, investing in infra-

the benefits of integration ‘more attainable’. The lecture was introduced

structure and increasing connectivity can all make the conduct of business

and chaired by Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS–Asia. Watch a

easier. It will be important to harmonise standards and regulations: inte-

video of the event and read a transcript on the IISS website.

CHINA

KEY ADDRESSES

Addressing Chinese Policy According to Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, the questions that should shape the examination of Chinese policy are: whether China’s rise can be sustained until the 2049 centenary; whether it will at some point equal the position of the United States; whether China has a ‘strategic blueprint’ for Asia; and finally, whether China seeks to change the existing global order.

Rudd delivered the 2013 Alastair Buchan Lecture on ‘China’s Impact on Regional and Global Order’ at the IISS in London on 16 December. He warned that, while there are any number of daily events to distract our attention, it is important not to lose sight of the ‘mega changes’ taking place in the background.

A construction site in China (Stan Wiechers)

He argued that the political, economic and military rise of China will come to dominate international affairs, and that it is therefore crucial to

necessary for a smooth transition of the global order: to avoid ‘strategic

understand the nation’s plans and motivations. China’s rapid rise, par-

drift’ and the associated conflicts that arise from misunderstanding and

ticularly in contrast with the decline of most other powers, has caused

suspicion, China must be more open about its positions. Equally, the rest

significant anxiety, but Rudd was optimistic that ‘there is sufficient con-

of the world must not ignore it.

fluence between Chinese and Western interests and values concerning the

The event was chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and

future of the international order that together, we can construct a common

Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch a video of the event and read a full tran-

path through.’ Rudd suggested that sharper analysis and clarification are

script of Rudd’s lecture.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2014 | 3

KEY ADDRESSES

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTAN

SOUTH SUDAN

Post-2014 Transition in Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Perspective In his first major address in the UK, Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on National Security and Foreign Affairs, stressed that Pakistan has vital stakes in a peaceful, stable and united Afghanistan.

Speaking at a meeting chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the IISS in London on 12 March, Aziz argued that Pakistan continues to be affected by what happens in Afghanistan. Despite sharing ethnic/religious affiliations, a common strategic space and a porous border, the impact of the crises in Afghanistan and their spill over into Pakistan continues to be formidable.

As the ISAF troop’s drawdown nears a 2014 end, Afghanistan is confronted with three interconnected transitions; political, economic and in terms of security. To ensure that these transitions remain peaceful and successful, a cumulative effort by the Afghans, the regional players and

Afghan National Army recruits (Ernesto Hernandez Fonte/ DVIDSHUB)

the international community would be required. To this end, four preventive and proactive measures are recommended: ensuring a successful,

Pakistan relations, he noted that since economic revival requires a peaceful

peaceful political transition; supporting progress in the peace and reconcil-

neighbourhood, Pakistan hopes for better ties with India. He also briefly

iation process; committing to a regional consensus on non-interference in

touched upon negotiations with the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) militant group

Afghanistan after 2014; and providing long-term economic/developmental

and Pakistan’s recently formulated national-security policy, which is in the

assistance to Afghanistan.

In the follow-up Q&A session, when Aziz was asked about India–

process of being operationalised. Watch a video of the key address on the IISS website.

The Future for South Sudan Dr Barnaba Marial Benjamin, South Sudan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, addressed the IISS on 11 February. Despite the signing of a ceasefire between the South Sudanese government and the rebels to end more than five weeks of intense fighting, the root causes of the conflict are yet to be addressed. The volatile ethnic fault lines that run through South Sudan have ruptured during this crisis. With an estimated figure of 1,000–10,000 fatalities, in addition to more than 646,400 internally displaced people, and over 123,400 refugees, the humanitarian situation is critical. This talk addressed the opportunities for, and obstacles to, a true political solution to the crisis in South Sudan and what that might mean

Women queue at a polling centre in South Darfur during the referendum on independence for South Sudan (UN Photo/Albert Gonzalez Farran)

for the future of the world’s youngest country and its neighbours. James Copnall, BBC Correspondent for Sudan and South Sudan, and Thomas

the discussion, which was chaired by Adam Ward, Director of Studies at

Mawan Muortat, South Sudanese Political Commentator, also took part in

the IISS. Watch a video of the event.

EVENTS

GEO-ECONOMICS

Adelphi: The Power of Currencies and Currencies of Power

maintain this ‘exorbitant privilege’ in tandem with a rising China. The

The dollar’s status as the leading global currency gives the US immense

cal leverage? Where has economic power been leveraged for political

political, as well as financial, clout, but that power risks being eroded

gain already? Wheatley, editor of the volume, and Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS

– with unpredictable strategic consequences – as the Chinese renminbi

Director for Geo-Economics and Strategy, discussed these themes at a

and possibly other currencies assume greater prominence. On 9 January

meeting chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Editor of the Adelphi series and

Alan Wheatley, former Global Economics Correspondent at Reuters,

IISS Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic Security. Watch a

discussed this Adelphi which assesses how long the US will be able to

video and read a report of the event.

book examines the obstacles China must first overcome in its quest to internationalise its currency, and the strategic consequences if it succeeds.

At what point can an accumulation of economic power exert politi-

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IISS NEWS

MILITARY STRATEGY

GEOPOLITICS

TURKEY

EVENTS

Continuity and Change in Turkey On 21 February Dr Mina Toksoz, Emerging Markets and Country Risk Consultant and an Associate Fellow of Chatham House, and Ziya Meral, a Turkish researcher and writer, led a discussion entitled ‘Turkey Beyond the Headlines: Challenges and Possible Scenarios’. The meeting was chaired by Islam Al-Tayeb, Research Analyst at IISS–Middle East. 2013 proved to be an eventful year for Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Despite Erdogan initiating the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and announcing a democratisation package, public discontent was brewing

Disturbances in Taksim Square, Istanbul, 2013 (Eser Karadağ)

and anti-government protests were frequent. With the presidential contest taking place in August this year and general elections scheduled for 2015,

talk explored the challenges of continuity and changes in Turkey’s domes-

the crisis could affect the party’s 11-plus-year reign and derail the Turkish

tic and foreign policies, and evaluated the relationship between Turkey’s

economy. This may have further consequences regionally, as the Turks

economic growth and its political instability. Watch the discussion and

may feel they are losing relevance in the Middle East and elsewhere. The

read a full report on the event.

Pope Francis between Obama and Putin Pope Francis is the first head of the Catholic Church from the Global South.

This is the key, one veteran Vatican watcher argues, to understanding the new foreign policy emanating from the Holy See. Francis is a post-Cold War Pope, said Corriere della Sera’s Massimo Franco when he spoke at Arundel House on 9 April. The pontiff, who has never visited the US, not only opposes any revival of East–West rivalries but also believes that a unipolar, US-dominated international order diminishes the Vatican’s own soft power. Therefore the papacy is no longer the

Pope Francis (Mazur/catholicnews.org.uk)

‘religious and moral arm of the Atlantic Alliance’, said Franco, one of Italy’s leading political commentators and a frequent contributor to Survival.

Despite the new Pope’s international popularity, Franco believes the

The Pope has sided with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in speaking

pontiff ‘cannot win globally unless he wins in Rome’, and Francis’ success

out against any Western intervention in Syria. However, he has been much

within the Vatican is more limited. There has been institutional resistance

more cautious in his approach to the crisis in Ukraine, fearing not only

to reforms and many of the new Pope’s advisors lack direct experience of

a renewal of the political tensions of the Cold War but also an end to the

the Vatican’s administrative apparatus, the Roman Curia.

steadily improving relations between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches.

The Papal Nuncio Antonio Mennini spoke briefly after the presenta-

The Kremlin’s vocal support for conservative moral values is another

tion. The papal representative in the UK, who was also previously posted

factor bringing the Vatican and Russia closer together. Franco argued that

to Moscow, stressed that the Vatican viewed events in Ukraine as a politi-

the Pope had used recent meetings with the US and French presidents as

cal crisis rather an ethnic or religious one.

a way to push back on the perception that he was softening the Catholic

This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

stance on moral issues.

Listen to the event on the IISS website.

The Direction of War

direction of the Iraq and Afghan wars. The last decade, he stated, has seen

On 27 February Sir Hew Strachan, Chichele Professor of the History of War

egy. This has illustrated the necessity of developing policies that are easily

at All Souls College, Oxford, and a member of the IISS Council, launched

converted into effective strategy.

a tendency to elevate counter-insurgency operations to the status of strat-

his book, The Direction of War, at Arundel House. Sir Hew explained the

After Sir Hew’s talk, the audience engaged in a wide-ranging discus-

contemporary evolution of strategy, noting how the concept is often con-

sion about contemporary strategy, covering issues such as the lessons

fused with policy and how strategic theory and military practice often

learned from the conflict in Syria and the recent parliamentary vote against

diverge. He suggested that an improved conceptual vocabulary was

British military intervention.

required, as demonstrated by the weaknesses in British and American

IISS NEWS

Watch a video of the event.

MAY 2014 | 5

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

IRAN

EAST ASIA

UNITED STATES

EXPERTS

Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Deal Having provided oral testimony on 28 January to a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee inquiry on UK policy towards Iran, Mark Fitzpatrick,

Director

of

the

Non-Proliferation

and

Disarmament

Programme, summarised his analysis in a 3 February IISS discussion meeting. Fitzpatrick reflected positively on the Joint Plan of Action that was reached on 24 November and the 13 January agreement on technical understandings, and went on to provide six reasons for prolonging the interim deal – by his analysis, there is an 80% chance that the six-month

Full-size replicas of rockets and ballistic missiles in Tehran (Scott Peterson/Getty)

deal would be extended. Fitzpatrick assigned only a 10% chance that negotiations would produce a long-term comprehensive agreement this

tions to most of the negotiation sticking points, including alternatives to

year, largely because ‘the two sides are simply too far apart in what they

dismantling Iranian nuclear machinery. In a follow-on blog post, he elabo-

consider their bottom lines.’ He also saw a 10% possibility that diplomacy

rated on ways forward for an Iran nuclear deal.

would break down altogether, but he noted that there are technical solu-

Listen to a recording and read a transcript of the event.

Strategic Nuclear Issues in East Asia: Workshop On 5–6 March the IISS held a workshop in Beijing on strengthening cooperation between Chinese and Western policymaking communities in regards to nuclear issues. The workshop discussed nuclear deterrence, nuclear power and fuel cycle choices, including nuclear safety and nuclear security. Jointly organised with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), the meeting attracted about 30 experts from China, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. Nuclear security was addressed more broadly, to include taking stock of nuclear strategy, and in comparing nuclear postures, par-

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)

ticipants discussed nuclear minimalism and sufficiency. Separate sessions were additionally devoted to regional contributions to the 2014 Nuclear

the Fukushima disaster, and fuel cycle choices. Read a report of the work-

Security Summit, public attitudes towards nuclear power in the wake of

shop.

Iran, the US and the Middle East: Views and Approaches presentations from Dr David Menashri and Dr Dana Allin. Dr Menashri serves as President of the College of Law and Business in Ramat Gan and Founding Director of the Alliance Centre for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. Dr Allin is IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival.

Dr Menashri discussed the great potential for progressive change in Iran, highlighting the country’s history of revolution and youth activism as sources of hope for its successful integration into the global community.

Dr Allin explored American attitudes towards military intervention in the Middle East, specifically as a potential deterrent to Iranian Iranian women queue to vote at a polling station in Tehran, June 2013 (Atta Kenare/ AFP/Getty)

nuclear enrichment. He suggested that frequent intervention as a means of ‘signalling international credibility’ was an impractical policy, instead arguing for a more subtle and measured approach to engagement with

An IISS discussion meeting on 17 April, chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, examined the evolving dynamics among Iran, Israel and the US through

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the region.

Watch the discussion meeting on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

PAKISTAN

UNITED KINGDOM

NON-PROLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

The Trident Debate Continues As was reflected in a vigorous IISS discussion meeting on 18 March, the debate on the future of the UK’s submarine-based Trident nuclearmissile system continues. A broad spectrum of views on the role, postures and relevance of the system in the twenty-first century were put forward at this event, which was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick. Whilst Dr Julian Lewis, MP and former Shadow Defence Minister, and Admiral Lord West of Spithead argued that the UK’s Trident system remains the ultimate insurance policy against uncertain future military threats and nuclear blackmail, the other two panellists disagreed about the role and continued relevance of the programme. Baroness Shirley Williams of Crosby perceived Trident as an ‘outdated’, Maginot Line approach, arguing that new threats, such as cyber warfare, are of greater relevance today. Sir Nick Harvey, MP, emphasised that the UK should retain its nuclear know-how and capability for addressing potential future existential threats, but that a new, non-Continuous At-Sea Deterrence

Trident II (D-5) missile underwater launch

(CASD) posture for the system should be adopted. Harvey added that it is debatable whether Trident is fulfilling any practical utility at all.

Harvey argued that patrolling 24/7 in the post-Cold War security environment makes no sense, as the UK currently has no nuclear adversary

The question that Britain’s next government faces is essentially whether

with both the intent and capability to threaten Britain. He further stressed

to CASD or not to CASD. Russia’s recent annexation of Crimea, and other

that credible alternatives exist and that Britain has a whole ladder of

potential scenarios in which threats can arise unpredictably and quickly,

nuclear possibilities, some of which would be welcomed internationally.

were raised by Lewis as an argument for the continued need for a credible

West disagreed and warned that moving down the nuclear ladder unilater-

nuclear-deterrent system. From an operational perspective, West stressed

ally would be politically damaging to the NATO Alliance and unwelcome

the importance of deployment for the survivability of the UK’s Trident

in many European capitals.

system.

Negotiating with Iran

Watch a video and read a full report on the event.

However, according to Samore, the two sides remained far apart on the essential terms for a comprehensive agreement, reflecting fundamental differences in national interest and domestic political constraints both sides faced. While the P5+1 have demanded that Iran significantly scale back its enrichment programme, Iran has rejected any long-term restrictions on its enrichment activities.

There were, nevertheless, some areas where compromise was possible.

Iran, for example, might consider modifications at Arak so it would not produce as much plutonium. Samore believed other short-term constraints Iran could accept were not close to what the US required for an agreement, both to keep Iran well below the nuclear threshold and to sell the deal to Congress and US allies. He recommended that the US insist on an agreement that would delay Iran’s break-out period to at least a year, and that this period of delay be in place ‘for maybe 20 years or so’, much longer than Iran would probably accept.

Samore was concerned that the Ukraine crisis could dramatically alter

P5+1 ministers at United Nations Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland following negotiations with Iran, November 2013 (US State Department)

the course of nuclear negotiations, given the fall out between the West and Russia and a sense of disarray among the P5+1. Tehran would likely be more reluctant to make painful nuclear concessions and ‘would have every

On 10 March, the IISS hosted Dr Gary Samore to discuss prospects and

incentive to wait and see’ how the crisis played out.

problems of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme. Samore noted

Dr Samore is Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center for

that the Joint Plan of Action, signed by Iran and the P5+1 in November,

Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and President

seemed to be ‘going forward without any major glitches’. Tehran had taken

Obama’s former White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons

most of the key steps required: suspending production of 20% enriched

of Mass Destruction. This meeting was chaired by Dr Dana Allin, IISS

uranium and halting installation of centrifuges and major work at the Arak

Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor,

heavy-water research reactor.

Survival. Watch a video of the discussion on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2014 | 7

SOUTH ASIA

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTAN

EXPERTS

Second Defence Doctrines Workshop in Islamabad The IISS held its second workshop on ‘Defence, Deterrence and Stability in South Asia’ in Islamabad on 10 December in cooperation with the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad. A sixmember IISS team from London travelled to Pakistan for the workshop.

Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, CISS Executive Director and Rahul RoyChaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia gave the introductory remarks.

The Director General, Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command Authority (NCA), Lt-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (Retd), delivered the keynote address. Building on his address at the first CISS– IISS workshop in Islamabad, which took place in March, General Kidwai focused on the rationale of Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and challenges to the deterrence regime in South Asia. Importantly, he noted that since the last CISS–IISS workshop, a National Command Centre (NCC) has been established and was activated in June 2013. This is a highly secure facility designed to protect communications and control assets of the NCA, serving to augment Pakistan’s nuclear credibility. General Kidwai asserted that Pakistan’s response to India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine is fullspectrum deterrence at strategic, operational and tactical levels, with the aim of reinforcing peace in the region. Consequently, Pakistan’s pursuit of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) should not be taken as a sign of weakness. Pakistan has long been proposing CBMs without any reciprocity from India. As a responsible nuclear-weapons state, Pakistan

Pakistani Army soldiers guard nuclear-capable missiles at the International Defence Exhibition in Karachi (Asif Hassan/AFP/Getty)

has demonstrated sound stewardship of its nuclear programme by strengthening its export controls to the point of not presenting an iota of

senior SPD officials and influential experts from Pakistan, along with the

proliferation risk. General Kidwai urged criteria-based membership for

IISS senior staff. Over 60 officials and experts from Pakistan participated,

participation in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

including Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry, the then Additional Secretary

Three sessions followed: Nuclear and Missile Control Regimes; Pakistan-India Crisis: Scenarios and Capabilities; and Military and Nuclear CBMs with India: Challenges and Prospects. These were presented by

UN, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), and Ambassador Inam-ul-Haq, former Foreign Minister.

Read a report of the event.

The Pakistan Army’s Operations in the Tribal Areas Zulfiqar Ali Bhatty, the Army and Air Adviser at the Pakistan High Commission in London, spoke at the IISS on 19 February on the challenges faced by the Pakistani army along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border.

In this discussion Bhatty elaborated on the role of the Pakistan Army in the war on terror. Highlighting troop deployment, periodic operations and cross-border movements in relation to Afghanistan, his remarks focused on the Pakistan Army’s tactical and operational achievements. However, he also alluded to the many challenges it faces in this context. These involve tackling the troubled local economy, sustaining military operations beyond 2014, improving bilateral relations with Afghanistan and ensuring better working relations with the United States.

Bhatty concluded his speech by offering the Pakistan Army’s commitment to eliminating terrorists – their facilities and sanctuaries – and to strengthening the political and administrative institutions in the Federally Pedestrians cross the border at Torkham, Afghanistan between Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan and Khyber Province, Pakistan (Wakil Kohsar/AFP/Getty)

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Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Watch the event on the IISS website.

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

Pakistan’s National Defence University team meet with IISS

TERRORISM AND SECURITY

INDIA

SOUTH ASIA

Sixth IISS–Indian Foreign Ministry Dialogue

Indians wait in line to vote at a polling station in Varanasi, India (Kevin Frayer/Getty)

On 29 April a delegation from Pakistan’s National Defence University (NDU) was briefed by the IISS on nuclear issues, India and transnational terrorism. Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Director of Non-Proliferation and Disarmament focused on issues relating to his recent Adelphi book

Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (Indian Navy)

Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers. IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, discussed the possible outcomes of the 2014 Indian

The sixth IISS–Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) dialogue took

general elections and speculated on a new Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya

place in New Delhi on 4 March. The Keynote Address was delivered by

Janata Party (BJP) coalition government’s relations towards Pakistan.

Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (East), MEA. Speaking on ‘India’s Extended

Nigel Inkster, IISS Director for Transnational Threats and Political Risk,

Neighbourhood: Prospects and Challenges’, Wadhwa noted that the

spoke about the challenges posed by transnational terrorism and its impli-

economic aspects of India’s regional relationships are being supported

cations on broader regional security. IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare,

by on-going initiatives to impart strategic depth and orientation to

Ben Barry, discussed the critical role of the Afghan National Army (ANA)

India–ASEAN and India–East Asia relations. Considering that India is

after the 2014 troop withdrawal, contending that Afghan National forces

strategically located overlooking vital trade arteries, it is a natural corol-

would hold together if the political centre does not fragment. The interac-

lary that India should play a greater role in maritime security in the region.

tive session that followed focused on the ‘way forward’ on these issues.

This confluence of economic and strategic interests has also character-

The Pakistan NDU delegation was led by Iqbal Tahir, and Barry chaired

ised India’s engagement with West Asia, which accounts for nearly 60%

the session.

of India’s imports of hydrocarbons, making the region an indispensable pillar of India’s energy security.

Wadhwa noted that while economics will be a key driver, India’s rela-

US–Pakistan Relations to 2014 and beyond

tionship with its extended neighbourhood is to acquire greater strategic depth, which will manifest itself in increasing defence and security cooperation. As it engages with the wider region, India will have to factor in the role of other Asian players like China and Japan, as well as the role of non-resident powers such as the US and the ramifications of the US

Former US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, discussed the recent

rebalancing policy. The multiplicity of external powers in the region could

challenges to the Pakistan–US relationship at a meeting held at the IISS on

open up new avenues of cooperation, if the situation is handled with tact

10 December. The troubled relationship was explained from both sides:

and foresight.

as Munter presented it, the Pakistanis feel repeatedly exploited while the

These remarks were followed by sessions on ‘West Asia’, ‘US

US suspect the Pakistanis of dishonesty, and historically, both nations feel

Re-balancing Strategy’ and ‘Maritime Security Challenges’, all of which

betrayed on a series of commitments. The talk focused on the countries’ ties

were chaired by senior MEA officials. These included Sandeep Kumar,

during 2011 – a particularly turbulent year for the bilateral relationship due

Joint Secretary (West Asia and North Africa), Vikram Kumar Doraiswami,

to the US attack on Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

Joint Secretary (Americas) and M.V. Raj Krishna, Director (Military

According to Munter, it would be wise for the Americans to resist view-

Affairs). This dialogue was held at the Institute for Defence Studies and

ing Pakistan only through the prism of Afghanistan and security. Rather, it

Analyses (IDSA) in New Delhi, with the participation of Dr Arvind Gupta,

would be better to engage with Pakistan by building cultural ties based on

Director General, IDSA.

education and philanthropic sectors, areas that have traditionally engen-

The IISS team was led by Adam Ward, Director of Studies, and

dered strong relationships. Pakistan’s main challenge, he said, is to deal

included: Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia; Emile

with terror groups, so that the country becomes more attractive for busi-

Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security (IISS–Middle East); and

ness – not only to the neighbouring countries but to the rest of the world.

Antoine Levesques, Research Associate for South Asia.

Watch a video and read a report on the event.

IISS NEWS

Read more about the event on the IISS website.

MAY 2014 | 9

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

CHINA

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY

China’s Defence Innovation

EXPERTS

Visit by NATO Defense College

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning NATO Defense College, Rome, 2013 (NATO Defense College)

On 5 March, Dr Tai Ming Cheung, Director of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, spoke on the subject of

On 28 March nearly 90 military officers and diplomats attended Arundel

‘Forging China’s Military Might: Assessing the State of Chinese Defence

House as part of a visit by Senior Course 124 of the NATO Defense

Innovation’. He analysed the state of defence innovation in China in

College, based in Rome. Chaired by James Hackett, Editor of The Military

terms of industrial and technical elements, the rapid progress the field

Balance, the event featured presentations by Nigel Inkster, IISS Director

has seen in recent years, and current and future areas of focus. Cheung

of Transnational Threats and Political Risk and by Dina Esfandiary,

also discussed the nature of the relationship between defence contractors,

IISS Research Associate, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, on non-

regulators and end-users, as well as the level of engagement shown in this

proliferation challenges including Iran. After the formal presentations

sector by China’s leadership. The meeting was chaired by James Hackett,

there was a lively Q&A session, with all three IISS staff members asked

Editor of The Military Balance and Senior Fellow for Defence and Military

a variety of searching questions relating to international defence and

Analysis at the IISS. Listen to a recording of the event.

security affairs by the assembled course members.

IISS–British Army CBRN Seminar

Chinese Air Power

Chengdu J-20

On 23 April, Douglas Barrie, IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace and Soldiers don respirators during an exercise at the Defence CBRN Centre (Martin Jones/MOD)

Henry Boyd, IISS Research Associate for Defence and Military Analysis, continued a series of events focused on Chinese defence and military developments with a discussion meeting at Arundel House entitled ‘Chinese Air

Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the primary focus of the British Army

Power: Revolution or Evolution?’. James Hackett, IISS Senior Fellow for

has been the stabilisation of both Iraq and nearby Afghanistan. Yet during

Defence and Military Analysis and Editor of The Military Balance, chaired the

this period, British forces have not engaged in consistent efforts to defend

event, which centred on the accelerated growth and reorganisation of the

against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats.

People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) during the past two decades.

To help the army examine the implications of this, the IISS organised a

The situation regarding China’s present and future air-power capa-

seminar on 3 March to analyse the current and future CBRN threat and its

bilities was considered in terms of both advancements in technology

potential impact on land force operations across the spectrum of conflict.

and equipment, and the moves towards reorganisation and structural

Panellists included experts on weapons of mass destruction from IISS, aca-

change. Both Barrie and Boyd acknowledged that the broader picture of

demia and industry. Over 50 officers and officials from the British and

the PLAAF’s development plans remains unclear, but concluded that the

German armies and the Royal Air Force (RAF) attended. Discussion topics

PLAAF is rapidly reconfiguring from a force with limited homeland capa-

included threats from both states and terrorists and lessons to be learned from

bilities to one with expeditionary potential. Listen to a recording of the

civilian emergency management and the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

discussion.

10

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MAY 2014

IISS NEWS

MILITARY BALANCE

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Maritime Security in Africa The IISS, in partnership with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), organised two private workshops for military and civilian experts and practitioners on maritime security in Africa. The events were held in conjunction with the visits of two Royal Navy warships: HMS Daring in Shanghai (December) and HMS Portland in Lagos (February).

In China, Christian Le Mière, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security and Virginia Comolli, IISS Research Fellow for Security and Development chaired a discussion that highlighted the differences between piracy in Somalia and in the Gulf of Guinea as well as in approaches adopted in the two regions. Notably, the international

HMS Portland

community has struggled to devise effective measures to fight maritime insecurity in West Africa. Difficulties have resulted from the plethora of

at the root of maritime crime and piracy. Second was the importance of

regional groupings present in the region, which complicates coordination.

backing maritime-security initiatives with greater political willingness on

Furthermore, identifying areas of jurisdiction is not always easy given the

the part of local governments, in order to address factors such as corruption

number of adjacent countries making up the Gulf of Guinea coast.

and weak rule of law that, among others, have allowed piracy to flourish.

Two key recommendations emerged from the discussion. First was the need for additional capacity building to address problems on land that are

Read a report on the China event by Virginia Comolli and a report on the Nigeria event by Christian Le Mière.

The Military Balance 2014 The IISS launched the 2014 edition of The Military Balance, the annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics, before an audience of international media on 5 February.

In the press statement, IISS Director-General and CEO Dr John Chipman noted some of the book’s key conclusions. Defence planners are, he said, ‘confronted by a fractured and increasingly complex security environment’. During 2013, fighting in the Middle East and North Africa worsened while conflict in Mali and the Central African Republic inspired outside intervention. In Asia, defence-budget growth is accelerating, procurements are rising, and states are developing and acquiring advanced military

Experts meet the press following the UK launch

equipment of types previously monopolised by the West and Russia. ‘For the West,’ Chipman said, what is clear is that ‘the end of the Iraq War and

This year saw the defence and military analysis team launch The Military

the impending drawdown from Afghanistan mark neither an end to crises

Balance in other locations, bringing the book’s conclusions to a wide range

inviting Western military responses, nor a definitive end to Western inter-

of national policymakers, military officials and journalists. On 10 February,

vention.’ Nonetheless, total European defence spending continues to fall

Ben Barry attended the launch of The Military Balance 2014 at IISS–Asia in

in real terms – by an average of 2.5% per year since 2010 – and European

Singapore, where a range of journalists and defence specialists questioned

states face reduced capability, and possibly diminished influence, making

him – and the wider IISS–Asia team – about the book and broader defence

all the more pressing initiatives to maximise value from defence budgets

and security affairs. On 11 March, James Hackett, Ben Barry, Douglas

through closer cooperation. Meanwhile, total Asian defence spending was

Barrie and Christian Le Mière were in Berlin to launch The Military Balance

in 2013 11.6% higher in real terms than in 2010, and these outlays are fuel-

2014 before an audience comprised of German policymakers, journalists,

ling heightened military procurement in a region replete with conflicting

military officers and diplomatic officials. The event was hosted by the

territorial claims as well as long-standing potential flashpoints.

Körber-Stiftung, and stimulated a wide-ranging and informative debate

The Military Balance 2014 combines defence facts and objective analysis

that continued long after formal procedings ended.

with innovative charts, graphics and maps supporting the trends outlined

The IISS–US office in Washington DC hosted the US launch of The

in the book. There is extensive and detailed assessment of defence matters,

Military Balance 2014 on 18 March. James Hackett and Douglas Barrie

not only in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, but also in Latin America,

detailed key conclusions from this year’s volume, as well as a short vignette

Russia, North America and Africa. Specialist essays focus on: conflict anal-

on Chinese and Russian air power, while Dr Samuel Charap analysed

ysis and conflict trends, notably lessons from modern conflicts in terms of

events in Ukraine. Questions asked during the formal Q&A session covered

threats and required capabilities; unmanned systems, increasingly preva-

topics ranging from Russian defence reform, Ukraine, and Latin American

lent in many armed forces and likely to proliferate further; and the cyber

security to East Asian military procurements. The launch was moderated

domain. Watch the London press launch.

by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch the US launch.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2014 | 11

RUSSIA–EURASIA

RUSSIA

JAPAN

UKRAINE

Future of the Russia–Japan Relationship

EXPERTS

The Ukrainian Crisis and the Western Response

Pro-Russians on an Ukraine Army vehicle in Mauripol (Asahi Shimbun/Getty)

Western leaders have signalled that they are drawing the line on Crimea, said Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, at a 26 March IISS–US discussion meeting. The West is saying ‘if you invade farRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, November 2013 (Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP/Getty)

ther into southern and eastern Ukraine, the gloves are off and we’ll move

The current trajectory of the Russia–Japan bilateral relationship is the most

vent is possible, if not probable, Charap claimed, even if Russia’s current

promising it has been in more than a decade. Dr Matthew Ouimet, IISS

intentions are to stop annexing territory at Crimea. It does not matter what

Consulting Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, discussed the potential

Putin’s intentions are, because the events on the ground could produce an

of this relationship at IISS–US on 11 February, at a meeting moderated by

unwanted outcome in a variety of ways.

from individual sanctions to blanket, sectoral ones.’

But in Ukraine the outcome that all Western signalling is trying to pre-

Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia.

Ambassador Lee Feinstein contended that the challenge for the West

President Vladimir Putin’s 2012 call for a ‘draw’ over the four disputed

is to demonstrate its serious and capable capacity for immediate action.

‘Northern Territories’ suggests Moscow may be open to what scholars

He said that real and perceived differences between US and other Western

have called a ‘two plus alpha’ solution that would go beyond the return

powers need to be minimised and conveyed as one voice to Moscow.

of two islands promised in the 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration.

Moreover, it needs to be demonstrated that the West is committed to a

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his political allies have similarly voiced

common course of action in the long-term.

support for a mutually agreeable solution which will likely require Japan

Dr Keith Darden, a professor at American University, focused on inter-

to relinquish its demand for all four islands. If Abe remains in office with

nal Ukrainian problems, which he viewed as appropriate given that this

sufficient domestic political support, might the two sides conclude a

crisis started internally. He argued that the solution will come from within

territorial agreement and final peace treaty in time for the seventieth anni-

Ukraine. The EU association process activated deep and long-standing

versary of the end of the Second World War in September 2015?

regional divisions within the country, and the new Ukrainian government

Despite Dr Ouimet’s optimism regarding a potential settlement, he

only exacerbated these divides. Unless we deal with these regional cleav-

acknowledged that Russia’s connection with recent events in Ukraine

ages, he said, Ukraine will not be stable, will not join NATO and will not be

could have derailing consequences for the possibility of resolving the

truly independent. Darden emphasised that legitimate elections and decen-

island stalemate between Russia and Japan.

tralisation will do far more than external pressures to stabilise the situation.

A video and a report of the event can be found on the website.

Watch a video of the event and read a full report.

The Ukraine Crisis and the Search for a New Normal Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, examined

lation’) was in fact a lowest common denominator of crisis response: a

the prospects for the development of the crisis in Ukraine at a discussion

desperate grasping for a new stable equilibrium for Ukraine, Russia and

meeting at Arundel House on 1 May. Charap noted that as the country’s

the international system.

winter of domestic political discord had transformed into a spring of terri-

However, as Charap contended, the talking points and buzz words, no

torial partition and instability, European and American officials seemed to

matter how many times they have been repeated, do not in fact describe a

be speaking from an agreed set of talking points in their public remarks on

sustainable equilibrium or an end-point to the crisis. Instead, this crisis has

the crisis. While hopeful transatlanticists sought to construe this remark-

likely initiated an indeterminate period of instability. The search for a new

able consistency in messaging as a demonstration of a new seriousness of

normal will likely prove long, costly and highly disruptive of individuals’

purpose in the West, the drum beat of warnings, threats, and prescriptions

lives and the international order. Read a full report by Samuel Charap and

for resolution (inevitably characterised as either an ‘off-ramp’ or ‘de-esca-

watch the full discussion.

12

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MAY 2014

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

Pluralism in the Arab World

SYRIA

IRAQ

MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF

Syria after Geneva II

Syrian refugees in Beqaa, Lebanon (iStock/AhmadSabra) Tahrir Square, Cairo, Egypt, November 2011 (Hossam el-Hamalawy)

Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security, IISS–Middle East led a discussion on ‘Syria after Geneva II: Escalation and Fragmentation’ on 27

Dr Marwan Muasher, Vice-President for Studies at the Carnegie

March at Bloomsbury House in London.

Endowment for International Peace, spoke about his new book, The Second

The failure of the UN-mediated Geneva track between representatives

Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism, at the IISS at Arundel House on

of the Assad regime and of the Syrian opposition has put an end to the illu-

24 April.

sion of a political solution to Syria’s deepening tragedy. Syria today is in

Dr Muasher emphasised the necessity of ‘embracing pluralism as a

an advanced state of fragmentation. While regional competition undoubt-

strength’ to ensure successful transitions to democracy across the Arab

edly exacerbates the violence, local and transnational dynamics continue

world. Those post-transition governments that favoured inclusivity and

to shape Syria’s downward trajectory.

compromise, he claimed, enjoyed the greatest levels of stability in the

In recent times, the Assad regime has benefitted from rebel infight-

shortest periods of time. Outlining four possible transition models, he dis-

ing, sustained Russian and Iranian support, Arab divisions and Western

cussed the benefits and disadvantages of each approach using examples

paralysis; it has also reorganised militarily and politically ahead of presi-

from countries affected by the uprisings.

dential elections set for later this year. It has proven able to secure territory

Dr Muasher also outlined key political, economic and social lessons

it needs but has essentially transformed into a collection of militias.

learned from the successes and failures of these transition processes.

As Hokayem noted, mainstream Syrian rebels have struggled to orga-

Acknowledging the difficulties ahead, he expressed encouragement at the

nise while fighting both the regime and the extreme jihadists. Several

progress achieved thus far, reminding his audience that ‘no historical pro-

rebel alliances have emerged in the north and the south and have received

cess … has unfolded in three short years.’

weaponry, but the military outcome of such developments remains uncer-

Listen to the event which was chaired by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

tain. This meeting was chaired by Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East. Watch the full discussion.

Violence and Elections in Iraq Toby Dodge, author of the Adelphi book, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism – which The Economist named one of the books of the year for 2013 – discussed recent developments in the run-up to the April parliamentary elections in Iraq at an event at the IISS on 27 January, titled ‘Iraq: Caught Between Increasing Violence and National Elections’. As a confrontation between the jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), and the Iraqi government led by Nuri al-Maliki, plays out against increasing protests, sectarianism and displacement, Dodge discussed how the April election could prove to be a ‘moment of truth’, or,

Voting in Iraqi general election, 2010 (iStock/sadikgulec)

could mean that Iraq heads towards greater instability.

‘I think Iraq is at a fascinating crossroads,’ said Dodge. Previously, he

of the military mean that even a million-man army might not be enough to

explained, he would have said that the military dominance of the Iraqi

keep things under control. Dodge’s discussion emphasised that the coun-

armed forces and the extent of state control would be enough to hold

try could be moving towards further unrest, but also acknowledged that

the centre and prevent another civil war. But although some of that still

the national election could possibly change that trajectory.

stands, the increasing violence, population transfers and the domination

IISS NEWS

Watch a video of the event and read a full report.

MAY 2014 | 13

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

CYBER SECURITY

SYRIA

EXPERTS

Data Protection and the GCC The IISS Cyber Security Programme convened a private focus meeting titled ‘Data Collection and Privacy Considerations for the GCC’ on 10 March at the IISS–Middle East. Nigel Inkster, IISS Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, chaired the meeting alongside Dr Eneken TikkRingas, IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security. Dr Tikk-Ringas said: ‘The meeting is part of the larger IISS Cyber Security Programme, focusing on conscious exercise of state power in cyberspace and promoting strategic policy-level thinking about cyber security issues. Data protection has emerged as a complex international issue that combines national concerns

Network servers (Sehenswerk/Dreamstime)

about growing ICT markets, individual right to privacy, cybercrime and cyber defence and security.’

The IISS Cyber Security Programme will launch a Strategic Dossier which will facilitate understanding of the evolution of computer and

networking technologies over the past six decades, as well as the emergence of relevant cyber-security policy issues coupled with potential solutions.

Cyber Security Strategies in the Gulf On 3 April the IISS launched the IISS Cyber Security Programme’s Cyber Security Expert Series at the IISS–Middle East headquarters in Bahrain with a panel discussion on ‘Cyber Security: Strategies in the Gulf’. Renowned cyber experts Dr John B. Sheldon, Founder and Principal Consultant, The Torridon Group; Lt.–Col. Mike Kerttunen, Director, Department of Leadership, Baltic Defence College; and Chris Spirito, International Cyber Lead, The MITRE Corporation, came to Bahrain for the launch which was chaired by Bahrain-based IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas.

The experts addressed cyber conflict in the region and in Bahrain, government and private-sector remedies against cyber conflict, and baseline

Army officers monitor TV stations and websites at the military press office in Cairo, June 2012 (AFP/Getty)

cyber defence and security capabilities, as well as education and training requirements for the cyber-security work-force. The Cyber Security Expert

security seeks to inform cyber security decision-making in and around the

Series draws on the IISS’s network of world experts to further debate and

Gulf region and to promote the exchange of regional and national views

discuss cyber issues that presently impact both the region and the inter-

on international cyber security issues and solutions,’ said Dr Tikk-Ringas.

national community. ‘IISS’s strategic advisory and commentary on cyber

Watch the event on the IISS website.

IISS Global Perspectives Series: Prospects for Syria After the failure of the recent Geneva II track, on 16 April IISS–Middle East hosted a discussion meeting on Syria’s advanced state of fragmentation and the implications for regional security. Emile Hoyakem, IISS Senior Fellow for Regional Security, examined the prospect of a political solution to the crisis and dissected issues pertaining to the survival of the regime and the Syrian opposition.

Hokayem explained how the very adaptation technique of the Syrian regime contains the seeds of its own fragmentation. He emphasised that the regime’s strategy for survival is to conquer territories, coupled with burdening the opposition with a humanitarian crisis composed of flows of refugees and IDPs. Hokayem especially urged for a careful assessment of the crisis that resists the temptations of viewing it through the proxy war prism. He concluded with the assertion that a diplomatic solution to the war in Syria is merely an attractive intellectual construct.

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MAY 2014

Destruction in Bab Dreeb area in Homs, Syria (Bo Yaser)

IISS NEWS

GEO-ECONOMICS

IRAQ

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

IISS Global Perspectives Series: Iraq’s National Elections and a New Regional Cold War Four days before Iraq held its fourth set of national elections since regime change in 2003, Professor Toby Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for Regional Security, examined the likely outcome of the elections to an audience in Bahrain. These elections are crucial for the evolution of a country still plagued by politically motivated violence and weak state institutions.

However, the election campaign has been shaped by key politicians using sectarian rhetoric to maximise their vote. Iraq, as a weak state, is highly

An Iraqi inspects partial results outside a vote counting center in Baghdad following the general elections (Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty)

vulnerable to the interference of its neighbours who are also using sectarian rhetoric as a tool of their foreign policies.

Dodge left members of the audience with a grim forecast: ‘If Nuri al Maliki or anyone else who becomes prime minister in his place

that now dominate Iraq, then its return to civil war appears very likely.’

after April 30th does not seek to overcome the politics of exclusion

The Sixth Geo-economics and Strategy Conference in Manama

Watch the discussion in full.

Papers delivered at the conference considered the geo-economic implications of the changing weights of developed and developing economies in world trade, especially, as trade economist Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute, Washington DC put it, the emergence of China as

The focus of this event, held at the IISS–Middle East in Manama from

a ‘mega-trader’. The conference agreed that China’s continued economic

6–8 April, was the shifting nature of what the World Trade Organiza-

growth is likely to remain the single most important factor threatening the

tion’s (WTO) annual World Trade Report 2013 (WTR) summed up as ‘the

extant balance of power at both the global and regional levels.

balance of power in the multilateral trading system’. This change is

The conference also addressed the developing role of preferential trade

signified, as participants at the conference noted, by the decline in the

agreements (PTAs) and the negotiations for ‘mega-trading blocs’ such as the

rule-making power of the original ‘quad’ in the GATT-system, namely

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment

the United States, European Union, Canada and Japan, and the emer-

Partnership (TTIP). These agreements were examined in relation to the con-

gence of a newly significant group comprising of the US, EU, China,

tinuing health of the multilateral trading system and the global economy.

Read a full report of the conference.

India and Brazil.

The Armed Conflict Database Monitoring Conflicts Worldwide

“

 DATA – annual figures for global conflict trends, as well as multi-year statistics on fatalities, refugees and IDPs

The Armed Conflict Database (ACD) from the International Institute for Strategic Studies is an invaluable tool for the annual compilation of the Global Peace Index.

“

– Economist Intelligence Unit

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT > acd.iiss.org > or email sales@iiss.org IISS NEWS

FEATURES >  FACTS – timelines published daily on the 50-plus active conflicts covered in the ACD

 ANALYSIS – regular assessments of political, military and human security trends, plus background briefings  includes a list of selected non-state armed groups, their estimated strength, origin, political or ideological aims, and areas of operation  reports and statistics on archived conflicts, plus further analysis of potential conflicts and conflict-related themes within ACD news FUNCTIONS >  browse through the different year-on-year reports and fact sheets online  generate targeted reports on conflict data starting from 1997 and correlate reports from various years, conflicts, regions and topics  easily find more conflict-specific content with links to IISS publications and primary documents

MAY 2014 | 15

IISS–US

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

ISRAEL AND PALESTINE

IISS–US Policy Makers Series

EUROPEAN UNION

EXPERTS

Prospects for Israeli–Palestinian Peace Negotiations

A C-17 Globemaster III military cargo jet for the Indian Air Force under construction at Boeing, California (Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg/Getty) A protester during clashes with Israeli security forces (Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP/Getty)

This January, President Obama signed the first update to the US Conventional Arms Transfer Policy since its adoption in 1995. Updated

On 19 March, Daniel Kurtzer, the S. Daniel Abraham Professor in Middle

to reflect the evolving nature of US strategic relationships in response to

Eastern Policy at Princeton University and former US Ambassador to

changing global security challenges, this policy sets the standards by which

Israel, and Ghaith al-Omari, the Executive Director for the American Task

the US decides which defence systems to export to whom, and under what

Force on Palestine, spoke at the IISS–US about the prospects for Israeli–

conditions. The revised framework specifically considers possible impacts

Palestinian peace negotiations.

on regional arms balance, human rights, the US defence-industrial base, and partnerships and alliance strategy in shaping policy decisions.

Al-Omari commented that for the Palestinians, failure of the peace negotiations was not the preferred outcome, and that neither side wanted

On 23 April, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional

to agree to a final settlement that would leave them in a vulnerable posi-

Security and Arms Transfers, Gregory Kausner, spoke on ‘Conventional

tion, either regionally or domestically. Ambassador Kurtzer suggested

Arms Transfer Policy: Advancing American National Security through

that one way to avoid the talks failing would be for the Obama adminis-

Security Cooperation’ at the IISS–US. Kausner’s talk explained how the

tration to lay out a strong framework, thereby avoiding an issue-by-issue

Conventional Arms Transfer Policy, originally written under the Clinton

negotiation which would inevitably drive one party away from the bar-

administration, has been updated to clarify a new framework for arms-

gaining table.

transfer decision-making.

This discussion was moderated by Steven Simon, Executive Director,

The event was chaired by Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia. Watch the discussion and read a transcript.

IISS–US and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East, and can be seen on the IISS website.

External Threats and Domestic Challenges: Strategic Choices for the EU

European parliament, Strasbourg, France (EU 2012)

external dynamics and their relationship with

tions approach throughout Europe, much of

the domestic challenges facing the EU, particu-

what the European Union will look like as an

larly in regards to an increasingly aggressive

institution will be defined in the coming months.

Russian foreign policy.

Heisbourg also pointed to a need to reinvigorate

Heisbourg noted that as recently as 2010, the

Europe’s relationship with the United States,

global security environment looked quite differ-

and said that agreements like the Transatlantic

ent to how it appears today. Regimes in Libya,

Trade and Investment Partnership are opportu-

Syria, and Egypt were all relatively stable, a far

nities to accomplish this.

cry from the crises that continue to plague those

Heisbourg devoted the latter part of his dis-

countries today. European relations with Russia

cussion to the EU’s role in the ongoing crisis in

in the same period, though tepid, were making

Ukraine. The sudden change in the EU–Russian

positive progressions.

relationship reinforces the need for the EU to

The external threats that the EU faces today

redevelop its defence capacity; both for the sake

According to François Heisbourg, Chairman of

represent a significant departure from the rela-

of deterring Russia and to assist Ukraine with its

the IISS, the European Union faces significant

tively stable security environment of recent

own security needs should the EU wish to prove

strategic choices amidst a ‘hardening’ of its secu-

years. According to Heisbourg, overcoming the

itself a good-faith partner in the future.

rity environment, most recently exemplified

strategic challenges facing the EU will require

The event was moderated by Steven Simon,

by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. On 20 March

concrete decisions, not slow-moving discussion

Executive Director, IISS–US. Watch the full dis-

Heisbourg spoke at the IISS–US to discuss these

that produces little tangible outcome. As elec-

cussion.

16

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MAY 2014

IISS NEWS

EXPERTS

LIBYA

Managing the Spillover from Syria

TUNISIA

SYRIA

IISS–US

Lessons from the Tunisia Model

Zaatari Camp, Jordan (Karl Schembri/Oxfam)

On 20 February, IISS–US hosted a discussion meeting centred on the regional impact of the continuing crisis in Syria. Speakers included Henri Barkey, Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University; Benjamin Fishman, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East and

Tunisian National Assembly (magharebia)

North Africa; Kim Ghattas, BBC State Department Radio and TV correspondent; and Ambassador James Jeffrey, The Washington Institute Philip

The approval of Tunisia’s new constitution marked an important mile-

Solondz Distinguished Visiting Fellow.

stone in the country’s democratic transition, paving the way for the

With the breakdown of the Geneva negotiations between the Assad

2014 elections. Notably, this achievement emerged through compromise

regime and the Syrian opposition, prospects for a resolution, or even a

among Tunisia’s political parties, and not through the violence and unrest

pause, to the conflict in Syria appear dim. The ongoing crisis continues

that has troubled much of the region’s experiments with democracy over

to have profound implications for the broader Middle East, especially

the past three years.

for the frontline states of Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. This meet-

To assess the origins of Tunisia’s breakthrough and its broader impli-

ing addressed how Syria’s neighbours are managing the crisis across their

cations, the IISS–US held a special roundtable discussion on 24 February,

borders, especially in regards to the massive flow of refugees and the tide

titled ‘The Tunisia Model: Lessons from the Constitution and Challenges

of extremists and weapons. Key questions were asked: what are the risks

Ahead’. This meeting examined the basis of political compromise in

to the stability of Syria’s neighbours and how can those risks be mitigated?

Tunisia between secular and Islamist groups, challenges ahead for

Will the violence continue to spread in Lebanon and Iraq? How long can

Tunisia’s transition, and the lessons of Tunisia’s experience for the broader

Jordan and Turkey survive the status quo?

Middle East. Three distinguished Middle East experts were invited to

The discussion concluded with a panel-wide agreement that the

speak: Anouar Boukhars, Non-resident Scholar, Carnegie Endowment

myriad issues facing the region cannot hope to be resolved from the out-

for International Peace; Radwan Masmoudi, President of the Center for

side so long as the Syrian civil conflict continues. A solution must come

the Study of Islam and Democracy; and David Pollock, Kaufman Fellow

from a change in the calculus of the involved actors and external stake-

at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Additionally, special

holders. What is evident is that these frontline nations will have to work

guest Rached Ghannouchi, Secretary-General of the Ennahda Movement,

hard to prevent the conflict form engulfing their own states.

offered his insights on the lessons to be learnt from the Tunisia model.

Read a full report and watch a video of the event.

Read a full report on the event.

Toppling Qaddafi: Libya and the Limits of Liberal Intervention The 2011 intervention in Libya differed from

implications were explained by Christopher

Afghanistan and Iraq in terms of not only

Chivvis, Senior Political Scientist at RAND, on

NATO cooperation and speed but also the US’s

10 January during the IISS–US-hosted launch

new approach of ‘leading from behind’, which

for his new book, Toppling Qaddafi: Libya and

together led to a limited and low-cost interven-

the Limits of Liberal Intervention. Julianne Smith,

tion. While the efficacy of the involvement in

former Deputy National Security Advisor to Vice

Libya is still being debated within the countries

President Biden, shared her thoughts on both

that participated, this type of ’new intervention’

Chivvis’ analysis and the high-level meetings

could change the way NATO responds to future

which eventually led to NATO’s intervention.

crises.

The meeting was moderated Ben Fishman,

The successes and failures of the recent NATO action in Libya and that intervention’s

IISS NEWS

Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East and North Africa at the IISS.

Libyans celebrating the end of the Qaddafi regime in Tripoli (NATO)

Read a full account and watch the discussion meeting.

MAY 2014 | 17

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY

EXPERTS

Adelphi: Arctic Opening: Insecurity and Opportunity The Arctic is opening. Global warming is leading to seasonal sea-ice retreat, which in turn opens hitherto impassable shipping routes and new areas for resource exploitation. Such changes are elevating the Arctic’s geostrategic value and stoking inter-state competition. The admission of five Asian states as Arctic Council observers in 2013 underlined the increased importance of the High North in global politics. And as the sea ice retreats, so military forces are redeployed northwards, raising the prospect of conflict.

The Adelphi book, by Christian Le Mière and Jeffrey Mazo, discusses

USS Annapolis in the Arctic Ocean during Ice Exercise 21 March, 2009 (US Navy/Tiffini M. Jones)

change in the Arctic, outlining the possibilities of and limits to economic opportunities in the High North, while providing a detailed examination

The launch of the Adelphi on 29 January was chaired by Dr Nicholas

of the political and military changes this might bring about. It provides an

Redman, IISS Director of Editorial and Senior Fellow for Geopolitical

invaluable guide as the region transforms from a parochial concern to a

Risk and Economic Security. Watch a video of the event and read a full

global interest.

report.

New Climate Science

Exeter, was convening lead author on the human-security chapter of

On 7 April, the Climate Change and Security Programme held a discus-

vious report in 2007. The second speaker, Professor Clionadh Raleigh

sion meeting titled ‘New Climate Science: Implications for Security’ at

from the University of Sussex, directs the Armed Conflict Location and

Arundel House, focusing on the latest research on how global warm-

Event Data-project. They discussed the implications of this latest body of

ing might affect the future security environment. The meeting was

climate-science research for the security community, with a focus on con-

timed to coincide with the publication of the second volume of the

flict risk in the Sahel and the scope for human adaptation to climate change.

the IPCC report and had served as a convening lead author for the pre-

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment

The meeting was chaired by Dr Jeffrey Mazo, IISS Consulting Senior

report. For the first time, the IPCC included a chapter on human-security

Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy, and Consulting

impacts, including the risk of violent conflict.

Editor of Survival. Listen to a recording of the presentations and Q&A

The first speaker, Professor Neil Adger from the University of

LATIN AMERICAN SECURITY

session.

EXPERTS

COLOMBIA

Colombia’s Security Challenges

illegal economic activities, but also from their taxation of legal businesses – especially in rural areas with weak state presence.

Challenges to peace and governance in Colombia were examined during

Idler brought back from Colombia’s borderlands the clear impression

the discussion meeting titled ‘Armed Groups and the Challenges for

that the presence of armed groups is directly linked to the absence of infra-

Security’, held at Arundel House on 12 March. The speakers were Javier

structure and governance. The borderlands, she said, are convenient to

Ciurlizza, Program Director for Latin America at the International Crisis

the guerrilla leaders: they carry low risk and bring high financial return

Group and Annette Idler, doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford

thanks to their remoteness. Some of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of

with field research experience in Colombia’s borderlands. The event was

Colombia’s (FARC) most profitable fronts (guerrilla divisions) are located

chaired by Antônio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America at the

at these borderlands, she reported.

The strong grip that BACRIMs and guerrillas have over the drug

IISS. Ciurlizza explained that the sources of finance for armed groups have

supply chain, illegal mining and rural communities indicates that armed

faced significant change during the past few years. As the extractive indus-

groups may be difficult to eliminate in some areas, even if a historical peace

tries expand their presence across Colombia’s rural areas, armed groups

agreement is reached with the FARC leadership in Havana. As Colombians

have diversified into illegal mining and extortion. Groups not involved

strive towards a possible end to five decades of political conflict, authori-

in the current negotiation, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN)

ties are already aware of the increasingly powerful criminal groups and

and the criminal bands, have stepped up their involvement in violence

resource-rich guerrilla structures that are determined to maintain their

and extortion. Ciurlizza emphasised that their profits come not only from

feuds. Listen to the full discussion.

18

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MAY 2014

IISS NEWS

PUBLICATIONS

Adelphi: Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers At launch events in Washington, London, Geneva, Vienna and Islamabad on 26 March through to 8 May, Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS NonProliferation and Disarmament Programme, summarised the assessments and recommendations in his Adelphi book, Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers.

Concerns have been raised about the prospects for nuclear terrorism, nuclear accidents and onward proliferation involving Pakistan. The greatest danger, however, is the potential for nuclear war as the result of an escalatory cycle sparked by Pakistan-based extremists conducting another

discussion at each of the book launches. Some attendees argued that the

spectacular terrorist attack in India, like those in Mumbai in 2008.

nuclear-cooperation exemption given to India damaged the integrity of

With nuclear arsenals numbering just over 100 and systems on a low

the global non-proliferation regime, and that allowing Pakistan a similar

level of alert status, the strategic arms race in South Asia pales in comparison

carve-out would further undermine the NPT. Others found unfairness in

to the nuclear excesses of the Cold War superpowers. But the introduction

Fitzpatrick’s contention that the conditions for Pakistan should be tighter

of short-range nuclear weapons adds a destabilising element. Accidents,

than those enjoyed by India, given Pakistan’s past failures of nuclear stew-

misperceptions and miscalculations could all trigger a South Asian nuclear

ardship.

war. The development of cruise missiles, sea-based platforms and other ambiguous dual-use systems heightens the potential for misperception.

In a departure from his previous view, Fitzpatrick argued that Pakistan should be offered a path to normalising its nuclear programme. This was not his only recommendation, but it was the one that sparked the most

Fitzpatrick acknowledged the criticisms and said he advocated nuclear legitimacy for Pakistan without great enthusiasm and without claiming that it would solve the nuclear dangers on the subcontinent. But no other option offered a better process toward overcoming those dangers, he concluded.

Read more about this Adelphi.

New Adelphis

Only integrated policies that take into

Adelphi 444

and political aspects of food security

Beyond Air–Sea Battle: The Debate

have any chance of succeeding.

account the complex socio-economic

Over US Military Strategy in Asia by Aaron L. Friedberg After

a

decade

counter-insurgency

Adelphi 440 spent and

emphasising

Arctic Opening: Insecurity and Opportunity by Christian Le Mière and

counter-

Jeffrey Mazo

terrorism operations, finding a credible response to China’s A2/AD capabilities is

climatic conditions. With more than half the

The Arctic is opening. Global warming is leading

now the central task confronting US military

world’s people and high levels of inequality,

to seasonal sea-ice retreat, which in turn opens

planners. This Adelphi analyses the debate over

Asia lies at the centre of the global food-security

hitherto impassable shipping routes and new

the future of US military strategy in Asia. It

challenge of the twenty-first century. The region

areas for resource exploitation. Such changes are

identifies and assesses three approaches to the

– especially China and India – is drawing on

elevating the Arctic’s geostrategic value and stok-

problem; highlights their likely implications

world stocks and importing more staples, as its

ing inter-state competition. The admission of five

for weapons procurement, force posture and

own farms strain to meet its growing middle

Asian states as Arctic Council observers in 2013

alliance cohesion; and outlines a potential

classes’ desire for more meat and processed

underlines the increased importance of the High

synthesis combining elements of each.

foods. Meanwhile, the smallholder farmers who

North in global politics. And as the sea ice retreats,

supply 80% of the continent’s food confront

so military forces are redeployed northwards,

Adelphi 441–442

continued poverty, as they struggle to raise

raising the prospect of conflict. Christian Le Mière

Food Security in Asia: Challenges, Policies and

output in the face of creeping environmental

and Jeffrey Mazo bring much-needed sobriety to

Implications by Monika Barthwal-Datta

degradation, looming water shortages and the

the discussion of change in the Arctic, outlining

The spike in global food prices in 2007–08 not

unpredictable effects of climate change.

the possibilities of and limits to economic oppor-

only led to riots on several continents; it also

As this Adelphi shows, there are no simple

tunities in the High North while providing a

reawakened fears about the world’s future abil-

solutions. Today, rice is exported while some

detailed examination of the political and military

ity to feed itself, as growing populations place

households still go hungry, unrest grows as land

changes this might bring. Their analysis provides

greater demands on agricultural systems operat-

is appropriated for biofuels or industry, and

an invaluable guide as the region transforms from

ing in increasingly difficult environmental and

nations compete over waters and fishing rights.

a parochial concern to a global interest.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2014 | 19

PUBLICATIONS

New Strategic Dossier: Regional Security Assessment 2014 Since 2002, the International Institute for Strategic Studies has organised the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as a venue at which defence ministers, military and top-ranking defence officials from Asia-Pacific states, and other powers heavily involved in the region, are able to discuss the most important regional security matters of the day. The Dialogue has become a fixture in the calendars of key Asia-Pacific defence decision-makers from 27 countries, and in mid-2014 it convenes for the thirteenth time.

This Regional Security Assessment 2014 is the first IISS Strategic Dossier to be issued in association with the Shangri-La Dialogue. It focuses on issues reflecting the most important themes to emerge from successive Dialogues: • The evolving regional roles of the major powers, particularly the United States and China, but also Japan and India, among others.

• The dangers posed by potential flashpoints, notably the Korean

This Strategic Dossier focuses on the evolving regional roles of the

Peninsula, Taiwan and territorial disputes in the East and South

major powers in the Asia-Pacific, particularly the United States and China.

China seas.

It examines the dangers posed by potential flashpoints, as well as perva-

• Pervasive low-intensity security concerns, from insurgencies

sive low-intensity security concerns. It also reflects on questions of military

in Southeast Asia to transnational threats relating to maritime,

competition in the region and how best to construct a more secure and

resource and cyber security.

stable regional order.

• The crucial overarching questions of military competition in the

The Dossier will be launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2014 on Friday

region and how best to construct a more secure and stable regional

30 May in Singapore. Print copies are available to pre-order and will be

order.

dispatched after the launch.

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy In the June–July 2014 issue of

The IISS welcomes the following;

Survival, Lawrence Freedman discusses

crisis

management

Appointments Simon Abraham – Receptionist

and

Anna Ashton – Editorial Assistant, Survival

its implications for Ukraine, Karl

Annabel Corser – Editorial Assistant, Publications

Eikenberry analyses the United

Joseph Dempsey – Research Analyst, Military Balance Online

States’ loss of enthusiasm for mili-

Hervé Lemahieu – Research Associate to the Director of Studies

tary intervention, and Alexander

Hilary Morris – Assistant Librarian

Nicoll considers Scotland’s refer-

Neda Nobari-Nazari – Junior Accounts Assistant

endum on independence. Also in the issue: Jonathan Stevenson on

Consultants:

Syria and US foreign policy; Pierre

Zahir Kazmi – Visiting Fellow, South Asia

Noël on energy supply and mari-

Rafal Rohozinski – Consulting Senior Fellow for Cyber Security

time security in Asia; and Russell

Wenguang Shao – Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International

Crandall on Mexico’s drug cartels.

Relations

See more on the issue here.

Member Access to Library Full-Text Databases The Library has recently purchased two new exciting products,

one-stop search facility that searches and provides full-text access to

which offer great benefits to members. The first is a new database,

items from both the ISCTRC database and open source material on the

the International Security and Counter-Terrorism Reference Centre

theme of international relations, plus searches IISS Library catalogue

(ISCTRC), that offers full-text access to over 3,000 items relating to inter-

holdings.

national security or terrorism, such as journal articles, e-books, reports, etc. The second is the EBSCO Discovery Platform, a highly configurable

20

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MAY 2014

Members can access this platform via links in the members’ area or the Library area of the IISS website.

For details of how to contact the IISS >

IISS NEWS