IISS Newsletter Spring 2017

IISS news

Spring 2017

IISS–Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

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Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

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Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

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Book Launches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

www.iiss.org/iissvoices

Security and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

IISS–Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Middle East and the Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

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IISS–Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

The 5th IISS Fullerton Forum: IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting

NATO Transformation Seminar IISS co-hosts unique seminar . 3

Military Balance 2017 Definitive guide to global defence capabilities launches in London . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

South Asian Strategic Stability Delivering the keynote address at the 5th IISS Fullerton

should fill the resulting vacuum, through platforms

Forum, Malaysia’s Minister of Defence Dato’ Seri

such as the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting.

Hishammuddin Tun Hussein said the Asia-Pacific

Hishammuddin said that neither the US nor China

region was on the cusp of great change. He identified

could ignore a united ASEAN. He argued that it was

five challenges facing regional states’ policymakers:

essential to make progress on longstanding contentious

the emergence of populism and retreat of globalism;

matters such as the South China Sea dispute. Countries

Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL; humanitarian

need to look beyond ‘tired and childish’ notions of win-

crises; cyber security; and environmental degradation.

ners and losers, he said, and grasp the fact that peace is

Hishammuddin argued that ‘pseudo-nationalism’ had

a universal good. Hishammuddin also warned against

revived age-old contentions and led to contempt for

‘false dichotomies’, such as the supposed need to choose

the multilateral bodies that underpin the global world

between East and West, China and the United States, or

order. The minister hoped United States President

liberalism and populism.

Donald Trump would reconsider his reduced commit-

In a special address, the Philippines’ Secretary of

ment to the Asia-Pacific region, but said if he did not

National Defense, Delfin Lorenzana, shared Manila’s

the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

vision as chair for ASEAN in 2017, its fiftieth year.

A Pakistani perspective . . . . . 7

Whither Turkey?

Constitutional Change and Growing External Pressures

Exploring the geopolitical landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

IISS–ASIA

Secretary Lorenzana said that while ASEAN

maritime cooperation and inclusive, innovation-

record sessions on key security issues. The event

is a successful model of regionalism, it might

led growth.

was a key moment in the build-up to the 2017

have failed to bring tangible benefits to ordi-

This year’s Forum involved 74 delegates

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s most impor-

nary Southeast Asians. He said the Philippines’

from 23 countries and the European Union. It

tant security summit, which will take place in

priorities for the Association would include

took place at the Fullerton Hotel in Singapore

Singapore from 2 to 4 June.

promoting peace and stability in the region,

from 22 to 24 January and featured five off-the-

Watch the addresses.

IISS Fullerton Lecture: Change and Uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific

security goods to the region and not simply assume its narrow national interests.’

During a recent visit to Washington, Ms Bishop met senior members of the Trump administration, including Vice-President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and National Security Advisor General H.R. McMaster. They discussed regional challenges and the avenues in which the United States could become more engaged in the Indo-Pacific.

She stressed that many regional nations are waiting for evidence that the United States and its security allies and partners can continue to play the leading role in preserving the regional peace.

In her address, Ms Bishop focused on the challenges and opportunities of globalisation in the Indo-Pacific. Her remarks centred on the pillars of democracy, a rules-based order underwritten by the US, and the role ASEAN can play as leader within that order in Southeast Asia.

Ms Bishop acknowledged that the region faces uncertain times, and assumptions about the continued rules-based order are even less certain following the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. While the region needs to be clear-eyed about the challenges facing it, she urged her audience to remain optimistic

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop

as ‘we should embrace change, rather than fear it’. She also said history Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has said the United States must

showed that when ‘might makes right’ prevailed, nations were set on paths

play an even greater role as the ‘indispensable strategic power’ preserving

towards conflict.

stability in the Asia-Pacific, given that many of the region’s countries are in

She went on to celebrate the benefits of globalisation, but claimed the

a ‘strategic holding pattern’ amid widespread uncertainty over US foreign

region’s export-oriented model may be under threat. ‘There are now too

policy under President Donald Trump.

many countries and too many firms making too many products for too few

Ms Bishop gave the 28th Fullerton Lecture in Singapore on 13 March.

consumers,’ she said. And she warned that with regional military spend-

In an oblique swipe at Trump’s comments about getting US allies to bear

ing on the rise, nations may exert their new-found strength to challenge

a bigger share of the costs associated with their defence, she said: ‘The

existing territorial or strategic boundaries.

United States is obliged to use its power and influence to provide public

Watch the lecture.

PUBLICATIONS

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy: April–May 2017 In the April–May 2017 issue, François Heisbourg presents

of military coercion; Nina Kollars explores the differ-

an analogy between Donald Trump and Kaiser Wilhelm II

ence between genius and mastery in military innovation;

and argues that personality matters; Ash Carter examines

Wolfram Lacher asks if Libya’s collapse was predictable;

why the United States continues its engagement in the

David Hannay and Thomas R. Pickering outline the wider

Middle East; Mark Fitzpatrick sets out priorities for tack-

significance of the Iran nuclear agreement; Naysan Rafati

ling the Iranian nuclear threat; Alexey Arbatov analyses

contributes a review essay; H.R. McMaster, Ray Takeyh,

the differences between the US and Russia in thinking on

Gilles Andréani and David C. Unger review new books;

nuclear weapons; Hans Mouritzen defends the strategy

and Jonathan Stevenson suggests H.R. McMaster’s effec-

of Finlandisation; Robert Ayson and Manjeet S. Pardesi

tiveness as US national security advisor will be determined

examine the changes in the Asia-Pacific region as a result

by Trump’s whim.

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IISS NEWS

EVENTS

NATO Transformation Seminar

Transformation, NATO; Rose Gottemoeller, Deputy Secretary General, NATO; and Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis, IISS. Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Maritime Security and Naval Forces, moderated a session exploring NATO adaptation. This discussion featured interventions from General Mercier, Deputy Secretary Goettemoeller; General Petr Pavel, Chairman of the Military Committee, NATO; and Lieutenant General Hugues Delort-Laval, Vice Chief of Staff, NATO Allied Command Operations.

Four off-the-record plenary sessions then addressed the nature of the future security environment, NATO objectives to project stability, the Alliance’s efforts to further strengthen its deterrence and defence posture, and the political-military considerations that can shape high-level guidance for NATO’s transformation agenda.

A food-for-thought paper prepared by IISS staff in cooperation with

Opening session moderated by Nick Childs

ACT stimulated debate on a ‘persistent federated approach’ for NATO. Facing a set of security challenges of unprecedented complexity and of

NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and the IISS hosted the

potentially increasing gravity, the paper argued, NATO nations should

NATO Transformation Seminar 2017 in Budapest from 21 to 23 March. The

be encouraged to connect much more closely and flexibly – among them-

conference brought together some 300 delegates from NATO and partner

selves, with the NATO command structure, and with partners.

nations. Convening NATO’s leadership, European and North American

The sessions set up lively discussions featuring interventions from

thought leaders, and industry representatives, the seminar was a unique

many of the assembled permanent representatives and military represen-

opportunity to consider the Alliance’s transformation agenda ahead of the

tatives of NATO nations. Following the seminar the IISS and ACT worked

meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of heads of state and

together on a White Paper drawing together the event’s core themes, due

government, scheduled to take place in Brussels on 25 May 2017.

to be published in May 2017.

The seminar featured speeches by Dr István Simicskó, Minister of Defence, Hungary; General Denis Mercier, Supreme Allied Commander

Watch the Opening Session, Download the IISS FFT paper: A federated way ahead for NATO in an age of complexity

NATO Young Professionals Day IISS and NATO drew together 50 security and defence professionals aged 25 to 35 for the 2017 NATO Young Professionals Day in Budapest.

Participants, all from Alliance and partner countries, enjoyed a unique opportunity to engage with senior decision-makers and thought leaders and to help shape the debate surrounding NATO’s transformation agenda. Under the guidance of senior mentors, young professionals discussed four areas at the core of NATO’s transformation agenda: the future security environment facing the Alliance; the projection of stability beyond NATO’s borders; the strengthening of NATO’s defence and deterrence posture; and the political-military implications of NATO’s adaptation and transformation agenda.

The Young Professionals Day took place on 21 March, immediately before the 2017 NATO Transformation Seminar, also held in Budapest, which brought together NATO’s senior leadership. The key thoughts were fed directly into discussions at the NATO Transformation Seminar, and five young professionals were invited to take part in the full seminar.

The Young Professionals Day served to connect a generation of future leaders with current leaders of the security and defence establishment. The success of the event was reflected in the feedback from participants. They noted that this was a ‘unique and insightful experience’ and expressed their appreciation for the ‘fantastic opportunity’ it provided them to ‘meet peers and colleagues working in international security affairs’. The initiative was a collaboration between IISS and NATO’s Allied Command Transformation.

IISS NEWS

Young security and defence professionals were encouraged to share their ideas on how NATO should adapt to future challenges

SPRING 2017 | 3

BOOK LAUNCHES

The Military Balance 2017 Press Launch like cruise missiles. Importantly, Russia is looking to distribute these capacities more widely.

The audience heard that in future, Western forces may confront more advanced military systems, in more places, and operated by a broader range of adversaries. Amid greater calls for burden-sharing, NATO will need to refocus on spending targets that lead to real capability improvements. Chipman said encouraging Alliance members to increase investment in operationally relevant capability ‘has to be IISS experts brief the press following the launch

the order of the day’.

The Military Balance 2017 – the latest edition of the definitive guide to

analysis, as well as charts, graphics and maps. It features in-depth analy-

global defence capabilities – was launched at Arundel House in London

sis of the changing defence-industrial landscape, special-operations forces

on 14 February, in front of international print and broadcast media. ‘There

and twenty-first century deterrence challenges. A wall chart carries analy-

has been no reduction in the range and number of security challenges

sis of US forces in Europe between 1989 and 2017.

The Military Balance 2017 is packed with defence data and objective

demanding the attention of policymakers,’ said Dr John Chipman, IISS

The launch also saw the unveiling of a new database, Military Balance+.

Director-General and Chief Executive, in his opening remarks. He noted

This online product enables subscribers in government, the armed forces

that the balance of global military spending continued to shift towards

and the private sector, as well as academia and the media, to quickly assess

Asia, and that Western military technological superiority was increasingly

defence developments for faster and better-informed decision-making.

challenged. He added: ‘We now judge that in some capability areas, par-

Featuring multiple data years and powerful data-analysis tools, Military

ticularly in the air domain, China appears to be reaching near-parity with

Balance+ allows users to build their own data queries and view, compare

the West.’

and download defence data anywhere, anytime. The IISS will continue to

But, Chipman said, for states in Europe’s east and north, Russia remains the principal security concern. He explained much attention has focused on the advanced systems that Russia has displayed at home and in Syria,

produce its annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics in book form.

Watch the launch video.

Harsh Lessons: Iraq, Afghanistan and the Changing Character of War Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry, IISS Senior Fellow for Land Warfare, launched his new Adelphi book Harsh Lessons: Iraq, Afghanistan and the Changing Character of War at Arundel House on 25 January. In it he explores how the lessons of conflicts in the two countries are likely to shape Western states’ approach to intervention and warfare for years to come. Barry

UK forces outside Basra, Iraq, 2007 (Crown Copyright)

commented at the launch that ‘the ferocity of the armed opposition’ in Iraq and

would take a considerable risk if they chose not to sustain their counter-

Afghanistan ‘was a strategic shock to the

insurgency capabilities in the future.

US and its allies’, and that ‘it took several years for [them] to adjust the ends, ways and means being employed’.

Harsh Lessons provides policymakers, government officials, military officers and scholars with insights into why combat remains the core mili-

As a result, he argued, ‘the widespread perception of the intractability

tary capability. Barry explains successful and unsuccessful adaptation by

of the conflicts and difficulty in achieving strategic success resulted in a

armed forces, outlining the essential roles of leadership, culture and organ-

loss of confidence in the West [in] the utility of force’. Yet given the pre-

isational agility in promoting ‘learning under fire’.

ponderance of intra-state conflict worldwide, he added, Western countries

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Watch a video of the book launch.

IISS NEWS

SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Security in the Urban Century

How Kidnapping Funds Terrorism

Refugees are helped ashore as they arrive in Greece after crossing the Mediterranean Sea (Ggia) The Rocinha favela in Rio de Janeiro (Diego Baravelli)

Since 9/11, extremist groups have increasingly relied upon ransom payLarge cities across the developing world are increasingly affected by

ments as a source of income and there is considerable evidence to suggest

organised violence. Rapid and unmanaged urbanisation has created ‘dis-

that this revenue is being invested in people trafficking. Today people

puted territories’, urban areas where state authority is directly challenged

trafficking is a multi-billion dollar business, one that criminal and jihadist

by militias, insurgents and gangs. A common policy challenge in the

groups alike control and profit from. Worryingly, as large regions of the

Global South is the calibration of security, governance and development

developing world become less stable, trafficking of migrants is likely to

in face of these non-state actors.

surge yet further.

Given the policy dilemmas afflicting a wide array of cities, the IISS

A discussion at Arundel House on 25 January shed light on some of

Security and Development Programme has inaugurated a new stream of

these dynamics, explored possible consequences for Europe, and rec-

research on urban security. At a launch event at Arundel House on 1 March,

ommended viable measures to address these challenges. It featured the

the research team, Virginia Comolli and Antonio Sampaio, introduced this

analysis of Dr Loretta Napoleoni. As chairperson of the counter-terrorism

new area of work, as well as the trends and analyses underpinning it. They

financing group for the Club de Madrid, Dr Napoleoni has brought heads

also launched specific projects covering Bogotá, Rio de Janeiro, Karachi

of state from around the world together to create a new strategy for com-

and a number of other cities.

bating the financing of terror networks.

Watch the launch.

Watch the event.

EVENTS

A Discussion with Ambassador Masafumi Ishii A senior Japanese diplomat offered his perspective on the impact of the Trump administration on the NATO alliance, as well as on Japan’s own alliance with the US, in London on 3 March. Ambassador Masafumi Ishii, Japanese representative to NATO and Ambassador of Japan to the Kingdom of Belgium, addressed a discussion meeting at Arundel House.

At a time of quickening global geopolitical change and concerns about the future of the liberal international order, he explored the potential for the US, Europe and Japan to find enhanced or new forms of strategic cooperation. He said the election of President Donald Trump did not alter Japan’s fundamental approaches to foreign policy, but warned that around the world there are few powers currently able and ready to work for global stability. He called for the maximum possible coordination between Europe, the US and Asian democracies – forces he labelled ‘the three pillars of stability’.

Listen to the event.

IISS NEWS

Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces during an exercise with US forces (US Navy/ Michael Russell)

SPRING 2017 | 5

SOUTH ASIA

Bangladesh: Economy, Investment Climate and Future Prospects

India’s Nuclear Doctrine and Nuclear Diplomacy

Abul Maal Abdul Muhith and Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

Ambassador Rakesh Sood

Poverty is almost non-existent in Bangladesh now and will cease to exist in

Changes in India’s neighbourhood, threat perceptions and scientific and

the country by 2025. This was the key statement of Bangladesh’s Minister

technological developments should trigger a review of the country’s

of Finance, Abul Maal Abdul Muhith, who spoke at Arundel House

nuclear doctrine once a decade. This was the central point of a speech by

in London on 13 February. Minister Muhith believes that the country’s

Ambassador Rakesh Sood, former Special Envoy of the Prime Minister

growth rate will not drop below 7.5% in the near future. He also noted that

of India for Disarmament and Non-proliferation Issues on 16 March.

China is expected to provide Bangladesh with US$22 billion in soft loans

Speaking at Arundel House, Sood insisted that he would not pre-judge

until 2024. However, Minister Muhith questioned whether the US$14bn in

such a review, and that India’s credible minimum deterrent, and policies of

joint ventures agreed in October 2016 between China and Bangladesh will

no first use and ‘sole purpose’ ought to and would remain intact. This, he

take place, as Bangladesh may not be in a position to absorb loans with

said, was due to India still being on its way to achieving a nuclear deterrent

longer repayment periods and higher interest rates.

encompassing a triad of air-, land- and sea-launched nuclear capabilities.

The country’s largest donor remains Japan. China and Japan are also

Sood also noted a worrisome doctrinal asymmetry between India and

each developing one of the 34 economic zones being built in Bangladesh.

Pakistan, emphasising the critical importance of reviving bilateral talks

Minister Muhith also explained how an improvement in skills is taking

between the nations. He said a more sustained, substantial dialogue on

place in Bangladesh at a very fast rate, but investment growth is not doing

limited, modest objectives that contributes to nuclear stability was needed.

as well as hoped, especially in the country’s private sector. The meeting

The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow

was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

for South Asia.

Listen to a recording of the event.

India’s Foreign Policy: a Mid-Term Review There is no grand strategy in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy, according to

India–UK Relations post-Brexit

Manish Tewari, Official Spokesperson of the Congress (I) Party and India’s former Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting. He made the remarks in an address at Arundel House on 24 February.

Brexit will bring opportunities for a stronger rela-

Tewari predicted the Modi government would be consumed by internal domestic imperatives and

tionship between the UK and India, according to

not focused on foreign policy until the 2019 Indian general elections. He called for a resumption

Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha, High Commissioner

of the dialogue process between India and Pakistan, but said there would not be any momentum

of India. In a private discussion at Arundel House

towards substantive bilateral dialogue until 2019.

in London on 22 February, High Commisioner

The best approach until then, Tewari argued, would be to ensure the relationship remains on an

Sinha said the relationship would also benefit

even keel. There is also potential for the bilateral trade relationship between India and China to grow,

from the countries’ shared legacy and political

with Tewari noting a convergence of interests between the two countries. He also called for India to

commitment to each other. He also called for

build on initiatives with Japan, Australia and Vietnam. He highlighted that India’s policies in the

a negotiation for a bilateral free-trade agree-

Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East are positive aspects of Modi’s foreign policy. The meeting

ment, which he said would be positive for both

was chaired by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

nations. The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-

Listen to the event.

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Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA

South Asian Strategic Stability: a Pakistani Perspective Pakistan is struggling to maintain strategic stability in South Asia, a senior official from the country argued on 29 March, with the resumption of the composite dialogue process with India being the most effective and useful way to resolve regional disputes. Brigadier Zahir Kazmi, Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs branch of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, told an audience at Arundel House that the international community has a stake in stabilising South Asia.

Brigadier Kazmi noted ten factors of instability between India and Pakistan, including India’s declaratory nuclear doctrine and evolving sea-based deterrence capability. More stable seas, including the Indian Ocean, are in everyone’s interest, he noted. He said that the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor has the potential to alter the strategic balance in a positive manner, and confirmed Pakistan was still keenly interested in membership of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. The meeting was chaired by Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Associate for South Asia.

Watch the event video.

Brigadier Zahir Kazmi

Minister Akbar emphasised that economic prosperity is his country’s

India in a Changing World

foremost objective, with the era of poverty alleviation now making way

India’s Minister of State for External Affairs told an audience of British

is more international cooperation between different terrorist groups than

politicians that his country has become a pivotal twenty-first century

the nation-states seeking to counter them. He called for global cooperation

power, and that the decades ahead will be defined by the nature of Asia’s

on security and for all nations to set aside their differences and fight this

development. M.J. Akbar made the remarks on 16 March at the House of

together, as terrorism is the major obstacle to prosperity. He also noted that

Commons, in at a meeting convened by the IISS in association with the

both India and China have worked seriously to maintain peace on their

High Commission of India and the Indo-British All Party Parliamentary

borders, despite their differences. The meeting was chaired by Rahul Roy-

Group on India.

Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow for South Asia.

for the age of poverty elimination. Minister Akbar also stated that there

PUBLICATIONS

Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia A new Adelphi book co-authored by IISS’s Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton of Harvard University argues that the situation in Ukraine is the result of zero-sum policies pursued by Russia, the United States and the EU since the end of the Cold War. It was launched at Arundel House on 27 January, during which Sam Charap presented its central themes and arguments.

Everyone Loses, which was published on 12 January, describes how the crisis has yielded a

US and Ukraine training near Yavoriv, Ukraine, as part of Fearless Guardian II (US Army/Adriana M. Diaz-Brown)

ruinous outcome in which all parties are worse off and international security has deteriorated. The book examines the roots of

must recognise the failure of current policies and commit to finding mutu-

the Ukraine crisis, analysing Western and Russian policies in post-Soviet

ally acceptable alternatives. The launch was chaired by Nick Redman, with

Eurasia since 1991, and assessing both Russia and the West’s actions post-

60 people in attendance.

2014. Charap and Colton’s conclusion is that all governments involved

IISS NEWS

Watch the book launch.

SPRING 2017 | 7

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Military Balance+ launched at IDEX Abu Dhabi

from regional and international armed forces. Senior military and government officials in the Gulf and Middle East visited the IISS stand, where they were offered a detailed demonstration of the new platform’s features IISS staff showcased their unique defence database at the 13th Abu Dhabi

and functionality.

International Defense Exhibition and Conference (IDEX 2017) and the

The Institute was represented by Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director of

coinciding 4th Naval Defense Exhibition (NAVDEX 2017) in February.

the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme (DMAP), as well as

Military Balance+ offers users the chance to view and compare a wealth of

DMAP Research Associate Joseph Dempsey, Senior Fellow for Middle

data on force numbers and defence economics.

East Security Emile Hokayem and Middle East Research Analyst

The events were attended by about 100,000 visitors and more than 1,300 defence companies from 27 countries, with a considerable presence

Andrew Kelly.

More details on the Military Balance+

Military Innovation and Adaptation: Keeping the Cutting Edge Sharp Brigadier (Retd) Ben Barry told his audience at this IISS–Americas Expert Roundtable that three interdependent elements were crucial to military success: innovation, adaptation, and identifying and implementing lessons from operations. His study of British actions in Iraq from 2003 to 2009 revealed key weaknesses in the areas of innovation and adaptability.

Barry identified the issues underlying these weaknesses, including the overconfidence that led US and UK forces to ignore insurgency and counterinsurgency capabilities. Dialogue and candour were another important

US forces during an exercise

factor identified by Barry – he argued the US had considerably more success than the UK in this area, as dialogue between middle and senior leadership was more open, honest and direct. Finally, he discussed the role

enhance learning by attempting to overcome prejudice and understand

of leadership: adaptations developed at a lower level could not gain atten-

external groups and cultures.

tion without the support of military leaders, which meant opportunities to spread them were lost.

Barry highlighted the potential of new technology, such as weapon engagement simulators and synthetic environments. But he stressed that,

Barry said effective leadership was key to encouraging adaptation,

while technology can greatly contribute to innovation and adaptation,

and should be a core concern for military officials. He identified the ten-

development should take place across an entire organisation, and not

sion between discipline and hierarchy, stating that while military leaders

rely purely on technological advances. He also argued for the inclusion of

should foster innovation, subordinates should suggest ideas on their own

innovation and adaption as topics on war-studies programmes, and said

and act as ‘combat entrepreneurs’. The culture of the military has to sup-

forces should invest in intellect – often cheaper than investing in hardware.

port an outward flow of ideas, Barry said. This includes making best use

The discussion took place on 7 February and was chaired by Leigh Morris

of interactions with civilian scientists and experts. The military can also

Sloane, Managing Director, IISS–Americas.

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IISS NEWS

IISS–AMERICAS

US Relations with Iraq: Lessons from Recent History This IISS–Americas roundtable on US involvement in Iraq saw one speaker outline fundamental steps America must take to regain competency in the Middle Eastern country. These included improving political intelligence, promoting institutional reform, and integrating political and military law enforcement.

Another speaker urged the US to make Iraq’s political elite more accountable, and to ensure stability was a policy in itself, not simply an objective of policy. They also urged US leaders to accept pragmatic rather than perfect solutions to Iraq’s problems, and to be prepared to

A US Army helicopter at Qayyarah West Airfield, Iraq, November 2016 (USAF/Jordan Castelan)

work with Iran to deliver stability for the Iraqi people. They warned that despite US notions of manifest destiny, the country could never be more

confident that although US options and resources were limited, the best

than a tactical partner to other nations. And the speaker said that the

strategy was a coherent and targeted one aimed at reducing corruption.

patience of the Iraqi people should not be confused with acquiescence to

They said the US should work with regional partners and be willing to

any political system.

walk away from the situation in Iraq if necessary.

In the question and answer session that followed the discussion, IISS

The event on 16 February featured Lieutenant-General H.R. McMaster,

members and guests addressed future options for the US, relations with

now Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor, Dr Raad Alkadiri, Senior

Iran, the ongoing fight with Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and

Director of the BCG Center for Energy Impact, and Professor Toby Dodge,

the resources needed to achieve the country’s objectives. Speakers were

IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East.

A Conversation with His Excellency David O’Sullivan David O’Sullivan, Ambassador of the European Union to the United States, spoke at the IISS–Americas office on 22 February about the role and value of the EU. O’Sullivan covered a wide variety of topics related to the EU’s internal and external relations. He spoke about the importance of a strong relationship between the US and the EU, and how each entity should work towards the success of the other for their mutual benefit.

O’Sullivan also expressed the EU’s desire to help its neighbours with development and humanitarian programmes, and to continue to be open to trade partnerships with Asian countries. This event was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas.

Watch the event.

Mike Pence, US Vice-President, with Jean-Claude Juncker and Federica Mogherini during a visit to the EU in February 2017 (EU)

Watch IISS events online Videos of IISS events are available for free on our website and YouTube channel. Viewers can watch agenda-setting moments such as the IISS Fullerton Lecture and the launch of The Military Balance 2017. Other recent highlights include discussions of the modern law of self-defence and how kidnapping funds terrorism, and the launch of a major new research stream – Security in the Urban Century.

IISS NEWS

SPRING 2017 | 9

IISS–MIDDLE EAST

Roundtable on Regional Political and Geo-Economic Development Ambassadors, senior government officials and business executives discussed political and geo-economic development in the Middle East at a roundtable event on 15 January. The IISS–Middle East Event was chaired

by Dr Nelly Lahoud, Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, and featured two guest speakers from The Washington Institute. Simon Henderson, Baker Fellow and Director of The Gulf and Energy Policy Programme, and Commander Jeremy Vaughan, Visiting Military Fellow, led discussions and evaluated the region’s political shifts and armed conflicts, and their effects on local economies.

Syrian refugees in Lebanon (Mohamed Azakir/World Bank)

Women and Violent Extremism The role of women in terror groups was analysed by two expert speakers at an IISS–Middle East event in Bahrain.

Baria Alamuddin, Editor of Media Services Syndicate and Foreign Editor for Al Hayat, discussed her interviews with a range of women in Saudi Arabia – who generally expressed a strong opposition to terrorist ideologies. Nelly Lahoud, IISS Senior Fellow for Political Islamism, gave a contrasting analytical view of the ideological, cultural and social motives

(l–r): Nelly Lahoud, Baria Alamuddin and Dr Elizabeth Marteu

driving female followers of al Qaeda and Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. The audience heard that some women follow husbands and

The lecture, entitled Women and Violent Extremism, took place

relatives to these terror groups, while others join without any family attach-

on 19 February before an audience of more than 50 diplomats, gov-

ment. The speakers gave examples of women’s choices and the situations

ernment officials, business leaders and media representatives. It was

they led to, and shared accounts of women who have survived capture by

chaired by Dr Elizabeth Marteu, IISS Corresponding Senior Fellow for

the organisations.

Middle East Politics.

MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF

Whither Turkey? Constitutional Change and Growing External Pressures Shortly before Turkey’s constitutional referendum, and with the country enduring rising internal tension after a 2016 coup attempt and subsequent crackdown on journalists and opposition, IISS members were addressed by

CHP party MPs holding a press conference during the referendum campaign

freelance analyst and IISS Consulting Fellow Gareth Jenkins. He explored Turkey’s geopolitical landscape and the impact of recent events there on other nations.

The strength of previous checks on autocratic tendencies, such as the EU, has been severely eroded. With the Union now relying on Turkey to

Jenkins spoke at the IISS in London on 22 February. He said internal

stop onward migration to Europe from the Middle East, President Erdoğan

turmoil, fear and social alienation in Turkey were greater than he had wit-

is no longer worried about the body as a constraint on his power. Jenkins

nessed since moving to Istanbul in 1989. One of the elements causing this

stressed that Turkey’s behaviour has left it isolated on the global stage

was the breakdown in the separation between the judiciary and the gov-

and looking increasingly unstable, as attacks from Kurdish independence

ernment under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has spearheaded

fighters increase. He argued that the current state of tension and turmoil

an attack on members of the opposition and journalists who challenge his

would not end soon, as there is no opposition force strong enough to chal-

government. As a result, Jenkins said, Turkish media now lacks teeth and

lenge the president.

the government and its sympathisers dominate the public airwaves.

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SPRING 2017

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