Independent Magazine - issue 12

Evidence shows that humanity may be on the brink of a third energy revolution

In response to mounting global development challenges of war, conflict, poverty, climate change and exploitation, there is ample evidence that humanity may soon embrace a third energy revolution. Moreover, while current societal models may very likely prove to be unsustainable in the long-run, evaluative findings have shown that there is evidence for hope for humanity. Rob D. van den Berg, visiting Professor at King’s College London, presented the case for the third energy revolution during a webinar on 2 April 2025.

“The Agricultural, Industrial and Information revolutions happened without governments and societies taking the decision to adopt these. They happened because of their internal dynamics: people saw the advantage of growing crops, using machinery, using digital platforms. Instead, the Sustainability Revolution will happen because people will recognize that a sustainable future is cheaper and better. While fossil fuels made a few companies and countries very rich, the new energy revolution will be decentralised and will deliver an abundance of local energy”, affirmed Van den Berg.

Hosted by the Independent Office of Evaluation of IFAD (IOE), the event featured the interventions of high-level speakers, including Dr Indran A. Naidoo, IOE Director; Dr Jyotsna Puri, Adjunct Professor at Columbia University; and Dr Juha Uitto, Visiting Scholar at Environmental Law Institute and former Director of the Independent Evaluation Office of the Global Environmental Facility. Over forty participants attended the webinar, which brought together Chief Evaluators, Lead Evaluators and evaluation practitioners from multilateral development banks, international financial institutions and UN agencies, as well as from members of the Global Evaluation Initiative.

The webinar focused on the findings of the book ‘Evidence for Hope - The emerging sustainability revolution’, published by Rob D. van den Berg in 2024. The book has its origin in the unprecedented challenges that humanity faces.

“Historically, evaluation has been backward looking. You look at past data, understand what has worked and stop there. Instead, evaluation needs to be understood as a positive strategic force that is future looking. This has to be the new standard. The book articulates this need extremely well”, affirmed Dr Puri.

The main argument is that while everything seems to move in the wrong direction, there is change happening in the right direction as well. Van den Berg notes that this change is inevitable and that it will lead to a new energy revolution of humanity. After the agricultural revolutions, the industrial revolution and the information revolution, humanity is now on the verge of starting the sustainability revolution.

“The depth and scope of this book makes it a seminal contribution to science, research, philosophy and evaluation. It draws us into the multiple worldviews to help us understand how thinking evolves. As a historian, academic, evaluation manager, practitioner and commentator, Rob merges arguments in an accessible manner. It should inform future practice”, stated Dr Naidoo.

Drawing on the arguments outlined in the book, participants argued that there is evidence for hope at the systemic level, and at the level of innovation and pilot projects. This will require focusing on new initiatives, which may provide a means for societies to reach agreement on how transformations can achieve social justice and a sustainable relationship with plant Earth.

“We must look beyond the global West. There are countries that are leading the world in the areas of renewable energy and innovative technologies. We must learn from them and try to emulate the pathways that they are setting”, highlighted Dr Uitto.

Evaluators can support this by not just noting how successful an intervention is, but how it fits into trajectories that will bring us a sustainable future. Evaluation criteria like efficiency, effectiveness and impact are still studied as linear phenomena per intervention. Instead, they need to be redefined in terms of relationships.