Euromed Survey 2012 - Main Results

The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) has been commissioned by the EC to conduct a survey of actors and experts in the Euro-Mediterranean relations to assess the progress, achievements and shortcomings of the Barcelona Process.

This activity is part of the programme “Promoting mutual awareness, understanding and cooperation between the European Union (EU) and the European Neighbourhood Region (South)� (EuropeAid/125411/ACT/C/Multi- Lot3), co-funded by the European Union through the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) regional track.

A four years’ project

The survey has been repeated annually, with some of the same core panel actors and experts. Over four years, the survey has covered all the major fields of Euro-Mediterranean relations, through its thematic dossiers and policy proposals sections.

The objectives of the Survey are threefold: ď Ž

To assess progress, achievements and shortcomings in the different areas of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership in a broad sense. That is, taking into account the Southern and regional dimensions of the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Union for the Mediterranean.

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To create and develop an instrument for analysis and mobilisation of actors, experts and policy-makers around EuroMediterranean relations.

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To identify the major Mediterranean trends with a forwardlooking approach and articulate policy proposals to cope with the major challenges the region is bound to face in the coming years.

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Out of the around 4.600 questionnaires sent out, 843 respondents of the 43 member countries of the Union for the Mediterranean answered the detailed questionnaire, what can be considered as a representative sample of the universe of experts and actors of the EMP.

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The Survey presented a questionnaire comprising 23 general questions allowing multiple responses in 6 different blocks; 1) Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC) and new actors 2) Towards a multipolar neighborhood, 3) Euromed regional policies, 4) Economic and financial dimensions, 5) defining policy priorities and 6) Prospects and Policy Recommendations.

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23 articulate questions with more than 160 answer options were submitted and the 843 full answers received contained 135.000 elements of information, plus 1,800 text answers and comments. So the Survey is definitely a very useful tool for understanding the various perceptions and assessments of the multiple facets of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, its achievements and its shortcomings.

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Thus, beyond the direct analysis of results, an interpretation of the answers of respondents gives clear indications about the prospects of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership/Union for the Mediterranean in the near future and, even more important, some policy guidance for future developments

Distribution of the respondents by categories and gender

Geographical distribution of the respondents

34%

Synthesis of results

Rethinking Euromed policies in a changed Mediterranean

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The EU keeps a strong capacity to have more impact than other external and regional actors in the region.

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There’s still room for the Euro-Mediterranean policies to have positive impacts on the cooperation, on strategic economic options, on commercial partnership and strengthening democracy and good governance.

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After 4 years, the Euro-Mediterranean cooperation is still considered a valid instrument to face important challenges in the region.

1. New political actors in the region •Views about the role of Islamist parties in the future regional landscape are different in MPCs or EU countries.

•In the MPCs, Islamist and non-Islamist parties appear as being equally important while in the EU responses consider that the former will have a more relevant role.

•The same trend prevails when analysing the future role of Salafist parties

1.New political actors in the region

•Free and fair elections are the first choice of respondents when asked to prioritise democracy benchmarks. •A second important priority is related to civil freedoms. •The independence of the judiciary has almost the same level of priority as the democratic control of army.

1. New political actors in the region •No major changes are foreseen in the region’s foreign policy as a consequence of the Arab Spring.

•Egypt is still perceived as an essential broker in the region.

•Other scenarios such as the forging of alliances between Islamist governments or the advancement of the Peace Process are given a low level of probability.

2. Towards a multipolar neighbourhood • The EU still maintains a strong capacity to have more impact than other external and regional actors in the region.

•Although the US and Saudi Arabia are considered to be more influential.

•Preferences indicate that the EU has to work on the basis of the demands from the MPCs rather than intervening in their internal affairs.

•Except in countries with open conflicts or unstable scenarios (Palestine or Syria).

2. Towards a multipolar neighbourhood •Tunisia emerges as the country with the most optimistic outlook, followed

by Lebanon and Morocco •Respondents are pessimistic about prospects of democracy in Syria and Libya.

2. Towards a multipolar neighbourhood • The EU’s influence as a commercial and economic partner is considered most important.

•The EU’s role as a peace broker in the region receives an average assessment of under 5.

•Its role as a promoter of regional integration and as a driver of governance reforms receives an intermediate assessment.

3. Euromed Regional policies

• When classifying the priorities of the Communication of the European Commission and the High Representative on: “A New Response to a Changing Neighbourhood”, market access is seen as the first priority.

3. Euromed Regional policies

• Among the cooperation instruments proposed in the Communication of the European Commission and the High Representative on: “A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean” there is a clear preference for the civil society facility.

3. Euromed Regional policies

4. Economic and financial dimension

• Economic strategic options for the governments in the region are quite homogenous. •Slight tendency foreseeing a growing role of the GCC and China rather than the EU in the geo-economic landscape of the region. •An increased role of the USA as an economic partner and the strengthening of Arab regional integration institutions are considered less likely

4. Economic and financial dimension

5. Prospective and policy recommendations

•Euro-Mediterranean cooperation is still considered a valid instrument to face challenges in the region.

•Experts believe that Euro-Mediterranean cooperation can lead to a strengthening of democracy in MPCs. •But remain sceptical about the role of Euromed cooperation in the resolution of conflicts

5. Prospective and policy recommendations

•Water scarcity and migration related issues are likely to be a source of conflict.

•There is a growing concern over the regression of women’s role in society.

•Unlikely convergence of MPCs and the EU in economic terms

Al documents available in the Euromed Survey site