Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – forventninger
The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast
april 2018
October 2018
• Lowest expectations measured on a five-year period since 2010 • Industry breaks records with expectations of increasing capital value • For the first time since 2010 increased vacancy is expected for the residential sector WEB REPORT CONSENSUS FORECAST
• Expectations for capital value shifts away from the larger cities
Total return has peaked The investment property sector expects the total return in 2018 to be 5.5 percent which is a decrease of 1.7 percent compared to 2017. Total return has increased since 2013 where it was only 1.5 percent. Compared to last quarter the expectations for 2018 has decreased by 0.1 percentage point. It is expected that the total return will decrease until 2020 ending at 5.2 percent. This is a decrease of 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter.
A total return of 5.2 percent two years ahead is the lowest expectation measured since 2010.
The historical total return is 7.2 percent in 2017 Historic 2017
2018
2019
2020
2018-2022
5,5
5,3
5,2
5,3
Quarterly change
-0,1
-0,1
-0,2
-0,1
Annual change
0,0
-0,2
New
New
Total return
7.2
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. Rem.: The average total return based on the replies 2018-2020 is presented in the table. Total return is in percentage and shows return on investment property compared to the size of the investment in a given period. Total return consists of two types of returns: Direct return and return on value. Direct return is current net operating profit of the period divided by investments size at the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value added in the given period divided by the size of investment at beginning of period. Total return is before any financial costs and before inflation. The historic total return in 2017 might change in the future, when new data is included in the market statistic.
The participants’ expectations For 2018
For the development in total return 2018-2020
14 % expect a total return of 5 percent or below.
11 % expect a total return of 7 percent or above.
50 % expect a decline
55 % expect a total return between and 5 and 6 percent.
Published by
20 % expect a total return between 6 to 7 percent.
11 % expect an increase in total return.
in total return.
39 % expect status quo in total return.
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