Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – forventninger
april 2018
The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast
July 2018
• Reasonable but decreasing total return expected • For the first time, industry peaks expectations • Progress outside Aalborg, Aarhus and Copenhagen • Rent is expected to increase 2.2 percent a year over the next three years for offices in Copenhagen
WEB REPORT CONSENSUS FORECAST
Decreasing total return expected Total return in 2017 was 7.2 percent increasing four years in a row. In 2018, the property trade expects total return to be 5.6 percent. This has not changed since last quarter, but compared to last year, it is a decrease of 0.2 percentage point. In 2020, total return is expected to decline to 5.4 percent, which is a small increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to last quarter. This is enough to keep a positive but small value added.
Total return is expected to decline by 1.6 percentage points between 2017 and 2018.
Total return in 2017 was DKK 18 bill. If total return declines to 4.2 % in 2018, as expected by ten percent of the participants, total return will decrease by DKK 7 bill. to a total of DKK 11 bill. Another ten percent of the participants expect a total return of at least 6.6%, corresponding to a decrease in total return of DKK 2 bill. To a total of DKK 16 bill. in 2018. Most of the participants expect a lower total return in 2018 compared to 2017.
50 % of the participants expect that total return in 2018 is above the expectations for average total return in the period 2018-2022.15 % expect increasing total return from 2018 and forward.
During the period 2018-2022, participants expect a total return of 5.4 percent in average.
Total return in 2018 expected to drop to 5.6 percent Historic 2017
2018
2019
2020
7.2
5.6
5.4
5.4
Total return
2018-2022 5.4
Quarterly change
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Annual change
-0.2
-0.3
New
New
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. See remarks on page 4.
The participants’ expectations For 2018
For the development in total return 2018-2020
10 % expect a total return of 6.6 percent or above.
80 %
10 %
expect a total return between
expect a total
4.2 to 6,6 percent.
15 %
50 %
expect a 2018 below level.
expect a 2018 above level.
35 %
return of 4.2 percent or below.
expect a 2018 at level.
afkast på 6.6 eller mere
Published by
4,2 eller mindre
4,2-6,6
under niveau
på niveau
over niveau
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