The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast
April 2019
• Total return 2018 at 7.1 % corresponding to approx. DKK 70 billion • Expected lower total return in 2019 of approx. DKK 20 billion • 2018 was a better year for investments than expected WEB REPORT CONSENSUS FORECAST
• Expectations for retail hits a low record
Total return expected to decrease in 2019 In 2019, total return is expected to be 5.3 percent corresponding to almost DKK 20 billion lower than 2018. In the years 2020 and 2021, total return is expected to drop to 5.1 percent. Compared to last quarter this is a small increase in expectations but compared to April 2018 it is a decrease. 2018 was better than expected 2018 is the fourth year in a row where expectations to total return were lower than realized. Last time the participants were asked about their expectations for 2018 was in January 2018. At that time, expectations for total return were 5.5. percent. This showed to be 1.6 percentage points too low. 2018 turned out to be a better year than expected for property investments.
Two participants got the expectations right during 2018. See who they are on page 5.
Prospect of decrease in total return Historic 2018 Totalt afkast
2019
7,1 -0,1
2021
2019-2023
5,2
5,1
0,2
0,1
Ny
New
-0,1
-0,2
Ny
New
Kvartalsændring Årsændring
2020
5,3
5,2
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. See remarks on page 4
The participants’ expectations For 2019
For the development in total return 2018-2020
9% expect a total return
4% more than 6 percent.
of 4 percent or below.
24 % expect a total return between 5 and 4 percent.
20 %
expect a total return of
63 % expect a total return between 6 and 5 percent.
expect an increase in
46 %
total return.
expect a decrease in total return.
35 % expect an unchanged total return.