Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – forventninger
april 2018
The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast
April 2018
• Still surprisingly low expectations to total return in 2018: 6.5 percent • Historic total return in 2017: 7.2 percent • Historic good expectations for industrial
WEB REPORT CONSENSUS FORECAST
• Increase in Odense
Decreasing expectations for total return In 2018, a total return of 5.6 percent is expected, while expectations for both 2019 and 2020 including the period 2018-2020 are expected to be 5.4 percent. This is the lowest expectation for a coming five-year period measured since the beginning of the Consensus Forecast (2011). Expectations for 2018 have decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared to last year, while expectations for 2019 have decreased by 0.5 percent compared to last year. Thus, the market expects a coming recession.
The lowest expectation for a coming five-year period measured since the beginning of the Consensus Forecast (2011).
The historic total return in 2017 ended at 7.2 percent Historic 2017
2018
2019
2020
7.2*
5.6
5.4
5.4
Quarterly change
0.0
-0.2
New
New
Annual change
-0.2
-0.5
New
New
Total return
2018-2022 5.4
Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics. * Realized total return in 2017. Rem.: The average total return based on the replies 2018-2020 is presented in the table. Total return is in percentage and shows return on investment property compared to the size of the investment in a given period. Total return consists of two types of returns: Direct return and return on value. Direct return is current net operating profit of the period divided by investments size at the beginning of the period. Return on value is the value added in the given period divided by the size of investment at beginning of period. Total return is before any financial costs and before inflation. The historic total return in 2017 might change in the future, when new data is included in the market statistics.
The participants’ expectations to total return 2018
2018-2020
12 %
10 %
expect a total return
expect a total return of
of 7 percent or above.
5 percent or below.
17 %
45 %
expect an increase in total return.
expect a decline
31 %
48 %
expect a total
38 %
expect a total
return between
expect status quo
return between
6 to 7 percent.
in total return.
5 to 6 percent. under 5
Published by
in total return.
ml 5 og6
ml 6 og7
over 7
stigende
Uændret
faldende
1