01. Economic Update - Brad Olsen, Principal Economist Infometrics

New Zealand continues to maintain strong economic foundations, but headwinds are building that will make it harder, and more expensive, to grow over the next year or two. High inflation and an intensely stretched labour market are chief concerns for the economic outlook, with businesses unsure about how to resource current orders with such scarce and costly resources available.

Inflation is at a generational 32-year high of 6.9%pa in the March 2022 quarter, the highest since June 1990. Pricing pressures are broad-based, with domestic spending and overseas disruptions both fuelling the fire. Concerns remain that high inflation now influences higher inflation expectations, with the risk of more persistent price increases sticking around over the next couple of years. Government support to low- and middle-income households in Budget 2022 faces the unenviable task of trying to provide a band aid measure until October 2022, without adding too much more pressure to inflation.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added extreme pressure to already limited resources and high prices, sending commodity prices for energy, food, and industrial inputs skyrocketing. Shipping prices remain high, and transport costs are now rising again after oil prices increased. China’s continued zero-COVID policy has seen substantial lockdowns across the country, with diminished production and further port disruptions.

The workforce is severely stretched, with the unemployment rate remaining at a record low of 3.2%. Short-term, there are concerns around worker burnout, with considerable numbers of workers off with COVID-19 or as isolating household contacts, leaving other staff to pick up the slack.

Businesses are reporting the most difficult period on record to find workers, and the highest levels of job poaching since at least the 1970s, as competition for talent remains intense. Job advertisements remain 15% higher than a year ago, with the workforce wanting to increase by at least 1% from its current high level immediately, if there were people available. Yet the workforce is severely limited, with a 0.2% fall in the working age population over the year to March 2022. A brain drain has emerged, with young Kiwis aged 20-29 leading the talent outflow. Over the last year, a net 7,000 more people left New Zealand than moved here, and expectations are for that outflow to continue. Infometrics estimates that around 40,000 New Zealanders who usually would have left, didn’t during the 2020 and 2021 years, and are looking to make up for lost time. Inward migration appears limited, with other parts of the globe reopening sooner and locking in talent ahead of New Zealand’s reopening. Immigration New Zealand visa processing timeframes also threaten to remain a key limitation on sourcing overseas talent. Pay increases are coming through as businesses seek to retain and attract staff but are still lower than inflation.

Both Treasury and the Reserve Bank have highlighted that current demand levels in the New Zealand construction industry far outstrip the supply of materials and people, which is putting pressure on achieving economic growth and forcing prices higher. To dampen demand, the Reserve Bank is lifting interest rates at pace, with the Official Cash Rate (OCR) rising to 2.0% in May 2022. The pathway ahead shows continued rate rises as the Bank plays catch-up and frontloads increases to limit demand. Housing activity has slowed markedly as interest rates rise, with sales volumes sharply lower, and house prices falling over the last five months.

There is a swiftly emerging risk of a recession, which now seems inevitable. Attempts to secure a “soft landing”, although admirable, are seldom successful. After frontloading considerable spending over the last two years to support the economy during COVID-19, there’s not a lot left in the tank for the next couple of years ahead.