ECG_July2026

ECONOMIC & COMMODITIES GLOBAL REPORT JULY 2026

Insights prepared by HSM in partnership with Mintec by Expana

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KEY MACRO, TARIFF, AND SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENTS

KEY TAKEAWAY

Initial progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz temporarily eased energy market pressure, but renewed hostilities have reintroduced inflation and supply chain risks across energy, freight and global trade.

SUMMARY Global inflation remains elevated, but the June data show a more mixed cost environment. U.S. CPI increased to 4.2% year over year in May, Euro Area HICP rose to 3.2%, and China CPI held at 1.2%, while manufacturing stayed in expansion across all three regions. Energy prices eased during June after the initial agreement between the United States and Iran, with Brent and European gas lower, but electricity rose sharply as heat driven demand increased across Europe. The relief therefore looks fragile rather than structural.

From a supply chain perspective, the main risk is renewed cost pass through from logistics, fuel, utilities and agricultural inputs. Ocean freight rose materially in June as front loading, carrier surcharges, tariff uncertainty and early peak season demand tightened lanes. Renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption could reverse energy relief and slow fertilizer flows, affecting food, packaging, OS&E and supplier transport. Procurement should validate surcharge requests, protect critical supply and keep sourcing flexibility.

KEY INDICES

1 2

INFLATION

Current1

Previous1

MoM2

CPI all items US

4.2%

3.8%

+0.4

HICP all items Euro Area

3.2%

3.0%

+0.2

CPI all items CN

1.2%

1.2%

0.0

MANUFACTURING

Current1

Previous1

MoM2

PMI manufacturing idx US

54.0

52.7

+1.3

PMI manufacturing idx EU

51.6

52.2

−0.6

PMI manufacturing idx CN

51.8

52.2

−0.4

PRODUCE PRICE INDEXES

Current1

Previous1

MoM2

Energy

+25.9%

+37.8%

−11.9

Road Freight

+21.5%

+14.2%

+7.3

Food Manufacturing

+1.7%

+1.8%

-0.1

Beverage Manufacturing

+2.8%

+2.8%

0.0

Cleaning Suppliers

+8.3%

+10.5%

-2.2

Furniture / FF&E

+4.5%

+3.8%

+0.7

Year over year percentage change, Month over month change

In partnership with Mintec by Expana

2

WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR June data show temporary inflation relief from lower gasoline and energy costs, but renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly return pressure to fuel, freight, fertilizer and food inputs over the next 30 to 90 days.

KEY DRIVERS OF INFLATION NATURAL GAS & CRUDE OIL June energy prices eased, but renewed Hormuz restrictions could lift oil, diesel, LNG and utility pass through costs.

1

Crude oil, Brent (YoY % Change)

2

2

Current

3M Avg

1Y Avg

3Y Avg

+21.0%

+52.6%

+7.8%

−1.9%

OCEAN & ROAD FREIGHT Ocean freight remains firm as front loading, carrier surcharges, early peak season demand and tariff uncertainty lifted rates.

Road freight (YoY % Change)

3

3

Current

3M Avg

1Y Avg

3Y Avg

+21.5%

+16.9%

+9.1%

−0.7%

PLASTICS & PACKAGING Resin prices eased month over month in June, but year over year levels remain elevated and exposed to fuel and freight volatility.

Plastics Material (YoY % Change)

4

4

Current

3M Avg

1Y Avg

3Y Avg

+16.2%

+12.4%

+0.6%

−2.2%

PROTEINS Fertilizer flows through Hormuz have slowed, adding risk to feed, crop and protein costs ahead of planting.

Beef (YoY % Change) Current

3M Avg

1Y Avg

3Y Avg

+14.5%

+17.4%

+17.4%

+12.6%

IMPACT

COST MITIGATION STRATEGY

Fuel, utilities, laundry, HVAC and supplier transport remain exposed.

Plastics and chemicals could see renewed feedstock volatility.

Validate fuel and utility surcharges to current indices; review fixed price options; prioritize regional supply when transit risk rises.

Inbound freight pressure can raise landed costs for food, OS&E, FF&E and packaging. Lead times may remain uneven.

Validate carrier surcharges; consolidate orders; pull forward critical replenishment and lock priority lanes where service risk is highest.

Packaging, disposables, cleaning supplies and resin based OS&E remain vulnerable to renewed supplier surcharges.

Keep alternate resin and packaging suppliers active; qualify substitutions where brand standards allow; secure critical packaging early.

Beef and foodservice proteins remain vulnerable to higher feed costs and availability constraints if fertilizer disruption persists.

Maintain supplier flexibility; review menu mix, portions and approved substitutions; monitor protein heavy menus for advance buys.

We will continue to monitor market developments closely and keep you informed of any material impacts and recommended actions.

In partnership with Mintec by Expana

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SPOTLIGHT PLASTICS The Middle East conflict continues to materially impact the plastic market through shipping disruption and propelling feedstock prices upwards. Players in China, major player in the plastics market, noted a situation of falling output and increased export demand.

In March (latest available data), monthly total exports of ethylene and propylene polymers rose by 74.5%month over month (MOM), representing a 37.4% year over year (YOY) increase. Ethylene polymers exports increased by 87.2% MOM to 304,240 mt, while exports of propylene polymers rose by 66.2% MOM to 412,455 mt. The marked rise in export demand was attributable to Asian states, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, seeking product from China instead of the Middle East, exhibiting what one participant called “panicked material security demand.

Despite the marked rise in export demand, plastics output in China continued to fall according to the latest data. In April (latest available data), the China Output of Plastics Products Index fell by 7.4% MOM, representing a 1.3% YOY decrease.

Sources anticipate some supply shortages in China

FREIGHT RISK The United States and Iran agreement briefly improved market sentiment in June and raised expectations that transit through the Strait of Hormuz could resume, reducing the risk of further disruption to global energy and shipping markets. While the agreement eased immediate geopolitical concerns, market participants remain cautious, noting that a sustained return to normal oil flows and shipping conditions will likely take time.

Freight markets have yet to normalize. Expana reported the Global 40-foot container shipping index at $3,968.87 per unit on June 17, up 46% week over week and 21% year over year.

Although lower bunker fuel costs may provide some relief over time, elevated freight rates continue to be driven primarily by peak-season demand, front-loading ahead of potential US tariffs, and carrier surcharges. As a result, meaningful freight cost reductions are not expected in the near term.

In partnership with Mintec by Expana

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COMMODITY PRICE CHANGES Price changes for June 2026 vs May 2026 (M-O-M) ad June 2025 (Y-O-Y)

CATEGORY

Energy

Freight & Logistics

Paper

Metals

Plastics

Textiles

COMMODITY

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

Crude oil Brent ICE EU

−18.6%

+21.0%

Natural Gas TTF NL

−5.0%

+22.6%

Electricity Index Europe

+26.2%

+45.0%

Shipping spot Composite Index

+46.0%

+13.4%

Road Freight Index Europe

−0.2%

+10.0%

Kraftliner EU

+6.2%

+6.2%

Testliner EU

0%

−1.3%

Fluting EU

0%

+3.5%

Containerboard O2O Coated EU

0%

−3.3%

Containerboard G2 Coated EU

0%

−2.4%

Linerboard US

+5.5%

+4.3%

Testliner US

+6.4%

+6.4%

Containerboard SB US

+0.8%

−1.6%

Containerboard FBB US

0%

+3.0%

Iron ore CME China

−6.4%

+7.9%

Steel CME US

+4.2%

+37.8%

Steel EU

−1.4%

+12.9%

Aluminum LME

−4.4%

+36.6%

Nickel LME

−6.2%

+17.5%

Copper LME

+0.6%

+40.3%

Zinc LME

+1.6%

+32.5%

Lead LME

−0.9%

−1.5%

Tin LME

+0.1%

+64.9%

HDPE EU

−3.2%

+62.2%

LDPE EU

−3.3%

+53.9%

LLDPE US

−3.3%

+14.5%

LDPE US

−3.7%

+8.9%

PET EU

−1.9%

+42.4%

PET US

−5.0%

+13.1%

PP EU

−3.5%

+65.6%

PP US

−3.3%

−0.3%

Cotton US

−3.4%

+14.8%

Cotton India

−2.5%

+18.6%

In partnership with Mintec by Expana

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