The Governor – Summer 2020

HQN’S MAGAZINE FOR BOARDS, EXECUTIVES AND LEADERS SUMMER 2020

From lockdown with pride Can housing be proud of its pandemic response?

G15 Chair on personality, politics and possessions The latest on ‘Everybody in’ Special pull-out: Evidence

Contents Summer 2020 Published by: HQN Rockingham House St Maurice’s Road York YO31 7JA

Editorial: Alistair McIntosh Jon Land Jules Birch Mark Lawrence Janis Bright Email: mark.lawrence @hqnetwork.co.uk Tel: 07523 920010 Advertising: All enquires to: hqn@hqnetwork.co.uk Tel: 01904 557150 Design: Sam Wiggle

Cover features 17 The last word

5 A life in 15 questions

With tackling homelessness being at the top of the government agenda, Tasmin Maitland of Homeless Link looks at how to carry that on post pandemic.

Being the Chair of the G15 group of housing associations is no easy task, especially on top of the day job. But what about behind all that?

Helen Evans tells all.

6 From lockdown with pride

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Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is strictly prohibited.

Covid-19 has been the biggest change to housing in generations. But how well has housing coped with the changes? And what can the sector learn for the future?

Special pullout: Evidence The latest edition of Evidence magazine, incorporating topical housing research and analysis from leading academics.

EVIDENCE update

14 The importance of welfare Jules Birch looks at the changing nature of welfare during Covid-19 and what can be carried on as the country moves out of lockdown.

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Issue 27 | Summer 2020

THE LATEST RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS – IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Welcome!

Welcome to this edition of Evidence.

Individually and collectively we have been trying to cope with a humanitarian catastrophe and the restrictions of lockdown, responding to immediate concerns and pressures and reflecting on how circumstances may have changed forever. As the world emerges cautiously from the COVID-19 pandemic, we are beginning to think about new ways of working and how we might better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the lives of people and communities.

Much has been said over recent months as to how, in relation to public health, government decision-making in the UK has been driven by available evidence (even if all the evidence is not always in the public domain, and of course is always open to different interpretations).

Over the coming months we might expect the demand for evidence to inform policy at all levels to increase.

Whilst the focus may be on the health impacts of the coronavirus and a consideration of the economic consequences, there will be important opportunities to develop the evidence to show how the housing sector is responding to changed circumstances. There will be a need to think about the impact that the crisis has had upon different groups in society as well as others disadvantaged in terms of access to good quality, affordable housing services.

Over recent months CaCHE has hosted several early contributions to tackling the housing-related COVID-19 crisis (blogs, webinars, working papers etc). The Centre is now developing a research programme, incorporating a number of different themes. This will allow a longerterm analysis of housing policy initiatives in response to the virus. In this issue my colleague Chris Foye outlines this project in his article which explores what past crises might tell us about the future of housing policy. The value of data to housing organisations is highlighted in a piece by CACI. This shows how using information to identify and monitor vulnerable households post COVID-19 could help us understand and respond to changing needs.

Catherine May from the Chartered Institute of

Housing Cymru outlines their Tyfu Tai Cymru research project, which is a five-year programme designed to fill evidence gaps and provide valuable analysis across different strands of housing policy in Wales. Catherine summarises some of the outputs so far (the project is now in its third year) and highlights forthcoming research and future priorities. Debbie Green from Coastal Housing considers research undertaken in the Swansea region in collaboration with the Manchester Business School on the role of housing in the foundational economy.

The COVID crisis has highlighted the importance of key foundational workers, the challenges that an economic recession will pose and the potential for social landlords to play a leading role in a green recovery.

There has been an unprecedented increase in the use of food banks across the UK. Whilst the causes are a matter of debate, evidence suggests welfare changes and cuts in local authority spending have been major contributory factors. We look at research from the universities of Essex, Lancaster and Oxford and Kings College London showing the links between food bank use and those experiencing housing problems. The links between housing disadvantage and poverty are wellestablished and there is a long history of government support to help people meet their housing costs.

Millions of people in the UK are affected by welfare benefit policies and we report on a recent rapid review of evidence by Emma Taylor-Collins and Dan Bristow from the Wales Centre for Public Policy that highlights the issues that would need to be considered in making the case for a further devolution of the administration of the social security system in Wales.

The economic and social costs of the impacts of COVID-19 will be incredibly significant. There remain other major housing challenges around affordability, quality, access and inequality. However, as we look to the future it will be important across the housing sector that we continue to foster evidence-informed conversations about current and future policy and practice.

Bob Smith, Knowledge Exchange Broker (Wales) UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (CaCHE)

SUMMER 2020 |

EVIDENCE - 1

“Of course 99% of boards will be straightforward and honest. Yet there are issues to watch out for. When you are not actually in the same room it can be hard to read reactions”

The start of a new normal for the regulator By this time we should have been working to a new set of rules after Grenfell. But instead we are going in the opposite direction. A new regulator should have been policing frontline services. So, what have we got? It was bad enough that the regulator never sees an estate, now it will never see a board. Well, not in person anyway. The lockdown means that its visits have to be over a video link. How will this work out?

In some ways it’s business as usual, as the RSH prepares by sifting through a mountain of material from associations. That is how the RSH decides on what it wants to ask on site. So, it will still set the questions for the exam paper as it were in the normal way. But it will not be in the room when the test is underway. Is this a fatal flaw? Will boards pull the wool over the eyes of the regulator?

Younger readers let me say, you do not know you are born! In the days before Netflix the telly was terrible. No way would the lockdown have held for long if all you could watch were ropey British black and white comedies. Just about every week you got a Will Hay film and most of the time he played a doddery teacher. And in every exam his pupils cheated. Will our boards get up to these antics?

If so the RSH should watch out for board members that suddenly start wearing eye patches. Chances are they have scribbled all the answers to difficult questions inside of them.

That is what Will’s boys did week in and week out.

Of course 99% of boards will be straightforward and honest. Yet there are issues to watch out for.

When you are not actually in the same room it can be hard to read reactions. And sometimes you cannot see the faces of everyone in a video conference. What are they thinking?

But, as Bernardo Bustillo found out to his cost, you can sometimes see too much. He thought he had switched off the video function during a meeting and was just on audio. Big mistake! His fellow councillors saw him multi-tasking by showering while participating in the discussion. So he got top marks for efficiency but a red card for engagement. If you can avoid being part of a soap opera like this there are plusses to video meetings. There is no need to rely on your memory or the minutes to remember who did what and why. You can record meetings now. And that can be handy when things go wrong. If you foul up, I predict with confidence

that the RSH will demand to bingewatch the footage. It will save them a lot of time.

You can use the recordings yourself for training purposes. And if key people are long gone you can watch a meeting on catch-up to try to understand the logic of their decisions.

But boards are only a means to an end. What matters is what goes on at the frontline. Without the Grenfell White Paper, there is not enough focus on day to day services. As councils are running out of money during this lockdown, there must be a risk to important services. Watching the video link to the Grenfell Inquiry that has started up again, you can see how easy it is for services to fall apart. Some of the ineptest witnesses try the Prince Andrew defence – I have no recollection. Video recordings of meetings put paid to that nonsense once and for all.

Yes, housing organisations have worked wonders during the lockdown. We need to make sure this happens every day. Let’s have that White Paper now.

Alistair McIntosh, Chief Executive, HQN SUMMER 2020 |

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HQN has launched a brand new initiative, encouraging new and diverse voices to contribute blogs and briefings, and be leading speakers at events.

Everyone in the housing sector has a part to play in boosting diversity and ensuring those who do not normally have a voice are heard.

We’re committed to ensuring housing professionals from all backgrounds are given an even opportunity to write, speak and be involved.

If you would like to find out more, please contact mark.lawrence@hqnetwork.co.uk

A life in 15 questions The Chief Executive of Network Homes, and Chair of the G15 Group, shares her biggest achievements and what she would change about herself.

Helen Evans Q1 – Tell us about your career and how you ended up in your current role I studied politics and philosophy at university and left without a clear idea of what I wanted to do. So, I looked for temporary work and was offered a job in the housing department at Southwark Council.

I made my way around several councils in London until I ended up in Brent as chief executive of the Brent ALMO, Brent Housing Partnership (BHP). I left BHP to join Network Housing Group (as Network Homes was then) in 2010 and this was my first role in a housing association. I initially joined as director of operations and after a year in that role, the previous chief executive left, and I replaced them on an interim basis. I then took on the role permanently.

Q2 – Describe yourself in three words Determined, persistent argumentative.

and

Q3 – Favourite place on earth?

Currently Namibia. My favourite landscape is desert and Namibia ranges from rocky mountainous desert to endless pure sand dunes with dramatic changes in scenery and wildlife. One day we drove from the interior to the coast and the temperature dropped by 30 degrees.

Q4 – What would you change about yourself?

I would be less inclined to become acutely anxious about things that I can’t control. A propensity to be anxious is both nature and nurture in my view. My brother and I both have it and have both sought out roles that are not exactly relaxed.

There was a time when I wouldn’t have talked about it because I felt it looked like a weakness. Eventually I recognised it is part of what drives me, and whilst I wouldn’t say I embrace it I have learned to live with it.

are good at, or more importantly what you find difficult, it allows you to get the best out of yourself. I am an introvert in quite a front facing job – I have had to learn how to manage that.

Q9 – If you won £1 million on the Lottery, what would you spend it on?

Helen Evans

“If you know what you are good at, or more importantly what you find difficult, it allows you to get the best out of yourself” Q5 – Describe your home I live in North London in a house built in the 1930s. It’s not really my favourite architectural style but my home is very family friendly and it has a lovely garden. We are located under a stack for Heathrow airport – at busy times a plane would go over every minute. Since lockdown the skies have been quiet. Now I get annoyed by the squawking of parakeets.

Q6 – What makes you angry?

I would buy both my children a home so they have that security and a foundation to make the best they can of their lives. Because good homes make everything possible is the Network Homes strapline.

Q10 – Biggest achievement?

The next one.

Q11 – Biggest regret?

Not applying for jobs that I would have liked because I didn’t think I would get them.

Q12 – Most overused phrase?

We are where we are. This is my phrase for drawing a line under something in readiness for moving on, which I use a lot. Too much.

Q13 – Recommend a book A Place of Greater Safety by Hilary Mantel

Q14 – The best piece of television in the last 12 months?

Lots of things. Ideological dogma impeding rational discussion.

Whenever you reduce a complex situation to a fixed position then progress slows.

Killing Eve. It has strong female leads – and despite the fact that one is a homicidal maniac, I like that.

Q7 – Most treasured possession?

I’m a secret country and western fan. Well, maybe country rock is a better description. I was at the Dixie Chicks concert in Shepherd’s Bush in 2003 when their lead singer, Natalie Maines, told the audience they were ashamed that George Bush, the then President of the United States, was from Texas. They were thrown off country radio stations in the states and CDs burned. I love them.

I’m not sure he would appreciate being regarded as a possession but my golden retriever, Snow.

If an inanimate possession, then probably my Tesla – although I love it a bit less at the moment because it has a major fault.

Q8 – Best piece of advice you have ever been given?

Know yourself. If you know what you

Q15 – Tell us a secret about yourself

SUMMER 2020 |

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From lockdown with pride Although Covid-19 is far from gone in terms of its impact, there are many lessons the housing sector can already learn from the past few months. Mark Lawrence looks at some of these and highlights those who led the way.

The last few months have been unrivalled in terms of how nimble housing providers can be when forced into disruption to normal lives, the economy and how the it. The drive toward technology and digital services has wider world thinks about every aspect of life. been a revelation. Some organisations may have faired But the truth is that some of the issues raised by better in the beginning than others, but now everyone Covid-19 were there all the time. is a master on Zoom and people have adapted well to As the country eases out of lockdown, the sector will new ways of working. face some new and challenging questions – but what Accord Housing Association even showed how can organisations learn from the past few months? governance could be changed, issuing a tablet to all When the working world spiralled into lockdown, resident scrutiny board members to ensure standards organisations were forced to enact did not slip during lockdown. working from home policies where That can only be a good thing as possible. Many, housing providers Accord Housing Association housing ramps up its need for new included, were not quite well even showed how technology in the future, if it is to enough equipped. Others thrived. keep up with the private sector. governance could be But what housing can learn is that Another initial aspect of lockdown many jobs can be done from home changed, issuing a tablet to that startled many in the sector is the if needed. all resident scrutiny board lack of knowledge some providers This does not mean closing all had on their tenants. members, to ensure that head offices and having everyone Who was vulnerable? Who working from home. In fact, it is about standards did not slip during needed help with benefits? Who organisations giving employees was OK and needed no help? lockdown. choice. It has been highlighted that Resources were suddenly poured for some employees, working from into customer facing roles, in a home significantly improves mental and physical health. desperate bid to find out more about the people For others, the social aspect of going to work and housed. interacting with colleagues is a mental health boost.

Having a better relationship with tenants post-Grenfell With housing now being able to offer both to staff, it was one of the main talking points of the Social Housing means everyone can have a better work/life balance.

Green Paper. But that does not seem to have translated This move to working from home also demonstrated into much action for many organisations.

SUMMER 2020 |

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The pandemic has shown the huge benefits of before breaking point was reached. understanding tenants’ needs and knowing who they And that wake-up call was answered in the form of are. If that can be built on, there will be plenty more ‘Everybody In’, a policy announced on a Thursday to benefits to unlock in the future. get everyone sleeping rough or at risk of homelessness Not everyone wants an active relationship with into a safe property by the end of the weekend. their landlord, but simply knowing the make up of the Estimates believe 90% of those sleeping rough (15,000 household and what help they may need is going to be people) were helped in that time, in large part due to the important should any future issues amazing work of outreach workers, arise. who were finally given licence to do Then, as the lockdown started The pandemic has shown what they have wanted to do for to bite and businesses closed their the huge benefits of years. doors around the world, something It showed that if the political will understanding tenants is there, it can happen. Government that has been painfully obvious to everyone in housing for so long needs and knowing who has now pledged nearly £500m to finally became clear to many they are, if that can be built rehouse rough sleepers, including a others: the country needs to build commitment to build 6,000 homes on, there will be plenty more with support for those coming off more social housing.

The huge rise in unemployment benefits to unlock in the the streets. and those struggling on an 80% So, for all the previous future. furlough wage meant government announcements by successive had to introduce a string of extreme governments about halving rough welfare measures: increasing the Local Housing sleeping by the middle of parliament and ending it by Allowance rate, increasing Universal Credit and going the end of that parliament, it seems ministers just did as far as to suspend evictions for three months. not... care enough?

The pressure on temporary accommodation and But it took the pandemic for housing associations to the homelessness sector was huge and the need for commit too. everyone to have their own home, somewhere they Homes for Cathy, a group of housing associations could be safe and genuinely afford, became stark. committed to ending homelessness, have been calling This is nothing new to many, but for certain ministers it on the sector to rediscover its social purpose and do was a wake-up call that something needed to be done more to house those who are homeless.

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Many signed up and acted, but it took some a bit longer.

For example, Calico and Wheatley, two organisations already committed to tackling homelessness in their areas before Covid-19, showed how it can be done.

Calico opened all empty homes in the area for the homeless, building on recent successes with schemes such as The Gateway. They have also pledged to carry these actions on post-Covid.

Radian have also since made pledges to help the homeless, offering all available one-bed homes to those who are homeless, as well as offering 15% of two-bed properties from its void portfolio.

Housing associations can do much more to house those at risk of homelessness and the pandemic has shown organisations can find a way if they want to. It must now be kept up.

This extra support and offering of accommodation go hand in hand with another huge policy change during Covid-19: evictions.

Government pledged to suspend all evictions in both the private and social sector for five months, from March

to August (initially was three months, extended by a further two).

While welcome, mostly for private renters, it did turn the spotlight back to social housing evictions – and why social landlords should be evicting anyone if they are the “safety net� of society. Is there no other way?

Some social landlords have led the way on this for years, never evicting a household due to arrears. In light of the pandemic, many are now following suit. But the question remains about why 20,000 people are evicted from social tenancies each year. And most importantly, where do they go?

It is something landlords are now looking at and it is perhaps on the sector to make sure better mechanisms are in place to protect those 20,000.

However, somewhere social landlords have been particularly impressive is in their welfare teams.

Many have been working flat out, joined by colleagues from other departments who were not so needed during lockdown, to ensure all tenants have the correct benefits being paid to them.

Many teams helped tenants get hundreds more

Housing associations can do much more to house those at risk of homelessness and the pandemic has shown that organisations can find a way, if they want to. It must now be kept up.

SUMMER 2020 |

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pounds per month, including sourcing backdated benefits.

While much of this is nothing new, the pandemic highlighted how important the work social landlords do in this field is. For some families, this work could have been a life saver.

And this welfare work ties in with some of the incredible community initiatives undertaken by housing providers around the UK. For example, Sovereign pledged £150,000 to supporting communities in which it works, including helping with foodbanks, mental health support and providing more meals on wheels services during lockdown.

Up in Scotland, Wheatley Group’s EatWell initiative is supporting those who are self-isolating or experiencing hardship due to the virus.

The organisation gave out over 4,200 food parcels in just four weeks at the start of the pandemic and have committed to continuing to support tenants.

Other organisations have also been working hard in their communities, such as One Housing in the Isle of Dogs delivering much needed food parcels, and Trafford Housing Trust who donated £100,000 to a community fund that would help residents with anything they wanted, even dog walking.

Many of these showed the incredible community partnerships housing providers have around the country – working with local authorities, food banks, community groups, faith groups and many more.

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It is the tapping into of other’s expertise to ensure people are looked after and able to access the support they need that has been truly amazing during the pandemic, from helping those who are shielding to frontline workers needing childcare.

And this partnership working has been seen on a bigger scale too, with the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations creating a Social Housing Resilience Group in response to the virus.

They brought together the Scottish Government, NHS Health Scotland, the Scottish Housing Regulator, Wheatley Group, Glasgow and West of Scotland Forum of Housing Associations, Chartered Institute of Housing Scotland and Association of Local Authority Chief Housing Officers.

This group now updates the sector weekly on general policy in relation to the ongoing pandemic, providing much needed reassurance and support for organisations and professionals working in the sector.

The sector has been in community partnerships for

HQN’s Frontline Stars Award has highlighted some of the residents, teams and individuals that have shown the community spirit of housing and how important housing providers have been in a community-led response to the pandemic.

as long as it has been around. But it has never been more vital for those partnerships to get stronger and more impactful.

HQN’s Frontline Stars Award has highlighted some of the residents, teams and individuals that have shown the community spirit of housing and how important housing providers have been in a community-led response to the pandemic.

Two other important learning areas for the housing sector were in communication and repairs.

Housing providers had a huge job in informing residents and staff about how the updates, which were sometimes changing daily, impacted them.

From welfare to community clubs, clear and effective communication was needed regularly to ensure everyone was as safe as possible.

Where communication was particularly effective was in the campaign against scams, with criminals posing as government departments and local welfare teams.

It was also required on repairs, where people needed them but may have been isolating, shielding, or just concerned about another person entering their home during lockdown.

One organisation that excelled in this area is Kingdom Housing Association.

Kingdom started to use Augmented Reality to help tenants fix routine repairs, so operatives did not have to step foot in their homes.

More complex repairs still had to be completed by operatives, but this move allowed time to be freed up, as well as not allowing routine repairs to backlog for returning operatives when lockdown was over.

In a recent report into Covid-19, the Regulator of Social Housing said it was worried about the growing backlog of repairs, and raised the issue of gas safety for a number of properties which were unable to be accessed due to social distancing and shielding.

As lockdown eases it will become easier for those operatives. But it does raise some interesting questions as the sector looks to how it wants to change for the future.

Overall, housing providers are emerging from the pandemic with a great deal of pride. Most were able to ensure residents and staff stayed safe, implement new practices to keep the businesses running, and do all this in less than a few weeks while in the middle of a pandemic not seen for generations.

And looking forward it teaches the sector a lot about how agile it can be, and how some of the initiatives that have been talked about for a long time, i.e. digitalisation, are now more important than ever to keep up to date with.

Another initiative spoken about for a long time but never acted upon well enough is the partnership

potential between health and housing.

Never has there been such importance placed on the standard of a person’s home than during the crisis.

From supported housing to retirement villages, the arguments for housing with care and the role that it can play in helping the NHS and wider community are now too loud to ignore.

If many were in secure housing, with NHS links, there would surely have been less deaths in care home settings, as those in retirement villages have found.

On a wider level, it is now a perfect time for social housing to be front and centre of the economic recovery.

Not only are developers going to struggle to sell homes at the rate they were before, and so be more willing to provide more affordable tenures, social housing has proven its worth once again during the pandemic.

The increase in those claiming Universal Credit and living in the unstable and unaffordable private rented sector was astonishing. Figures for the end of May showed three million people were now claiming benefits, an increase of 1.6 million from the start of lockdown.

And on welfare, which Jules Birch has written expertly about in this magazine, there is perhaps a new way of working here too.

Remote claiming, which was introduced to allow people not to go into the Job Centre, has worked extremely well.

Occasionally people are sanctioned for not attending their meetings. With this new way of claiming, it could allow more people to be able to claim effectively and not be penalised unfairly.

As the country slowly gets back to some form of normality, the Covid-19 lockdown will live long in the memory. For housing, it can be a period the sector will be able to look back on with pride.

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Summer school is here!

Our popular summer school is back and this year it’s virtual.

Our live virtual training is ideal for everyone wanting to improve their technical skills or boost their management prospects.

All of our courses are being run virtually to comply with social distancing and to make it accessible to everyone regardless of location.

Visit hqnetwork.co.uk/virtual-summer-school to find a course to suit you and pull up your deckchair!

EVIDENCE update Issue 27 | Summer 2020

THE LATEST RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS – IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Welcome!

Welcome to this edition of Evidence.

Individually and collectively we have been trying to cope with a humanitarian catastrophe and the restrictions of lockdown, responding to immediate concerns and pressures and reflecting on how circumstances may have changed forever. As the world emerges cautiously from the Covid-19 pandemic, we are beginning to think about new ways of working and how we might better understand the impacts of the outbreak on the lives of people and communities.

Much has been said over recent months as to how, in relation to public health, government decision-making in the UK has been driven by available evidence, even if all the evidence is not always in the public domain (and of course is always open to different interpretations).

Over the coming months we might expect the demand for evidence to inform policy at all levels to increase.

Whilst the focus may be on the health impacts of the coronavirus and a consideration of the economic consequences, there will be important opportunities to develop the evidence to show how the housing sector is responding to changed circumstances. There will be a need to think about the impact that the crisis has had upon different groups in society, as well as others disadvantaged in terms of access to good quality, affordable housing services.

Over recent months, CaCHE has hosted several early contributions to tackling the housing-related Covid-19 crisis (blogs, webinars, working papers etc). The Centre is now developing a research programme, incorporating a number of different themes. This will allow a longerterm analysis of housing policy initiatives in response to the virus. In this issue my colleague Chris Foye outlines this project in his article, which explores what past crises might tell us about the future of housing policy. The value of data to housing organisations is highlighted in a piece by CACI. This shows how using information to identify and monitor vulnerable households postCovid-19 could help us understand and respond to changing needs.

Catherine May from the Chartered Institute of

Housing Cymru outlines their Tyfu Tai Cymru research project, which is a five-year programme designed to fill evidence gaps and provide valuable analysis across different strands of housing policy in Wales. Catherine summarises some of the outputs so far (the project is now in its third year) and highlights forthcoming research and future priorities. Debbie Green from Coastal Housing considers research undertaken in the Swansea region, in collaboration with the Manchester Business School, on the role of housing in the foundational economy.

The Covid crisis has highlighted the importance of key foundational workers, the challenges that an economic recession will pose, and the potential for social landlords to play a leading role in a green recovery.

There has been an unprecedented increase in the use of food banks across the UK. Whilst the causes are a matter of debate, evidence suggests welfare changes and cuts in local authority spending have been major contributory factors. We look at research from the universities of Essex, Lancaster and Oxford, and Kings College London showing the links between food bank use and those experiencing housing problems. The links between housing disadvantage and poverty are wellestablished and there is a long history of government support to help people meet their housing costs.

Millions of people in the UK are affected by welfare benefit policies, and we report on a recent rapid review of evidence by Emma Taylor-Collins and Dan Bristow, from the Wales Centre for Public Policy, that highlights the issues that would need to be considered in making the case for a further devolution of the administration of the social security system in Wales.

The economic and social costs of the impacts of Covid-19 will be incredibly significant. There remain other major housing challenges around affordability, quality, access and inequality. However, as we look to the future it will be important across the housing sector that we continue to foster evidence-informed conversations about current and future policy and practice.

Bob Smith, Knowledge Exchange Broker (Wales), UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (CaCHE)

SUMMER 2020 |

EVIDENCE - 1

In this issue: 1 Welcome 2 A distinct path for Wales on social security? | The role of housing in the foundational economy 3 Identifying and supporting the new vulnerable 6 Five-year research project examines housing issues in Wales 7 What do past ‘crises’ tell us about the future of housing policy post-Covid-19?

8 Exploring the links between housing and food insecurity

A distinct path for Wales on social security?

Could Wales take its own path on welfare benefits in future? The question is highly complex, as a ‘rapid review’ of the evidence by the Wales Centre for Public Policy outlines.

The centre was commissioned by the Welsh Government to consider the issues involved in any future devolution of social security administration. Authors Emma TaylorCollins and Dan Bristow note that the first question is what any change would be designed to achieve. Reforms under recent UK governments will leave households worse off, with the poorest hit hardest. The Welsh Government and Citizens Advice have each set out principles for how the administration of social security should be approached.

The report goes on to consider what aspects of the current system prevent desired outcomes, and how these could be changed to achieve what is wanted.

Key options include: • Taking a more effective and consistent approach to

administering benefits • Providing alternative or enhanced support to people • Increasing take-up of benefits • Providing alternative or enhanced training to those administering benefits • Topping up existing benefits • Redesigning existing benefits or creating new benefits.

Each option has its advantages and drawbacks; some have been pioneered elsewhere, including in Scotland and Northern Ireland. There would of course be financial and legal implications in any change, and these are outlined. Equally important is the possibility that reforms could have unintended consequences.

The report offers a starting point for establishing what is desired, and working through the implications of the various options.

Full report: https://bit.ly/3g8YbfR

The role of housing in the foundational economy Foundational economic activity essentially comprises the basic infrastructure and services which citizens need to live a good life. Good quality affordable housing is a key component within this foundational infrastructure and social landlords are “anchor organisations” whose activities are closely connected to the delivery and development of the foundational economy. Debbie Green, Chief Executive of Coastal Housing Group, explores the issues.

In Wales housing associations have been actively supporting foundational economic activity, and a couple of key pieces of research have supported this journey. The first research by Alliance Manchester Business School, in partnership with Swansea-based social landlord Coastal Housing, appraised the Swansea City Deal. Whilst welcoming the investment, the report recognised that the deal, focusing on creating jobs in ‘next generation industries’, brought with it the risk of creating more, not less inequality, because these

EVIDENCE - 2

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industries are not volume employers and are creating specialist jobs which most social housing residents are unlikely to be able to access. The report – What Wales Can Do: Asset Based Policies and the Foundational Economy – contained a call for anchor organisations, such as housing associations, to promote asset-based community and economic development as a method for supporting and growing the local foundational economy and complementing conventional economic development projects.

Building on this work, Coastal and MUBS undertook a practical piece of research in Morriston, a community within Swansea, which originally housed industrial workers. Whilst its industrial past is long gone, it still boasts a settled community and a long retail high street. The research aimed to understand how this local foundational economy and community worked. It identified a strong sense of cultural identity and the importance of social as well as economic infrastructure, specifically the physical facilities such as cafes, the library, the chapels and local parks, and the activities going on there. Housing was largely affordable, predominantly in the form of cheap terraced houses. However, the housing was not always of the right sort or in the right place. Poorer families rent homes on insecure tenancies, and there was a lack of suitable affordable housing for people who are ageing

and trapped in older and inaccessible properties.

Using this research, Coastal is focused on promoting the foundational economy in and around the high street, Woodfield Street. Working with Swansea Council, Coastal is identifying and starting to acquire key buildings on the street that can be refurbished and repurposed with a view to providing new homes in flats above retail and/or commercial space. Lettings will be flexible to facilitate creating active shop fronts, with spaces being accessible to the community, and to start-up businesses.

The housing will be targeted at key workers, and will also provide more suitable accommodation for older people within the community. By doing this Coastal will be increasing footfall on the high street, which will complement existing work with retailers to support their businesses.

Looking to the future, the Covid crisis has highlighted the importance of key foundational workers, but social distancing has brought to a standstill much place based foundational economic and social activity.

As we emerge from lockdown we will be facing an unprecedented economic recession, central and local governments will have limited money, and there will need to be continued investment in public health.

It will be tempting for governments to resort to “old ways” to stimulate the economy – eg growth deals and infrastructure projects – and ignore the more complex fabric of foundational and social capital.

However, coming out of the crisis is an opportunity to reframe and recognise the importance and

interconnectedness of wellbeing, social infrastructure and the foundational economy. Within this new model, housing can play a key role.

A green recovery is also a foundational recovery, and housing associations can take the lead on decarbonising the Welsh housing stock and implementing the recommendations of the Welsh Government report Better Homes, Better Wales, and Better World. Housing associations can not only ensure that this work happens within their properties, they can also use innovative and values-led procurement to support local SMEs to benefit from this large investment programme. They can help these businesses to understand the work required and to create new employment opportunities. Additionally supported

by Welsh Government, housing associations could use their collective buying power to increase the use of Welsh timber in their developments, accelerating the reforestation of Welsh uplands, and similarly help establish modular build factories to deliver new affordable, low carbon homes.

Finally, housing associations are rooted in place and understand that foundational economic and social infrastructure is inextricably linked. Our future towns and cities will need to contain more housing and less retail, more green space, and the scope for active travel.

Housing associations can play a crucial role by helping to lead this re-imagining of our towns and cities postCovid as part of a place-based green inclusive and foundational recovery.

Identifying and supporting the new vulnerable

JOIN NOW!

Covid-19 has had significant health, social and financial impacts across the country and there is clear evidence that the primary impacts have been felt hardest by the most vulnerable, write Paul Langston, Arabella Dalloz and Joel Abbey from CACI.

The Housing Studies Association (HSA) is a UK-wide membership organisation which brings together researchers, practitioners and professionals to promote the study of housing. HSA runs a programme of events including our annual conference and our public lecture on housingrelated themes. The Association also offers:

Housing associations, local authorities and charities have stepped up to support the most vulnerable in their communities. Data has been playing a valuable role in helping to pinpoint those with the greatest shortterm needs. We have been delighted by the uptake of our free data offer, promoted by HQN, to support organisations in providing on the ground assistance.

Whilst we were all initially playing catch-up trying to understand the virus, we could relatively quickly spot those who were most in need of short-term support.

CACI data has played its part in providing a detailed understanding of vulnerability in our communities and their location.

We must now address the secondary impacts of the pandemic, which are likely to affect individuals and organisations for the longer term. Many of our clients are asking about how to best utilise data to identify and support the new vulnerable.

• Events grant scheme enabling members to disseminate and discuss their work, • Seminar Series grant competition • Conference bursaries to early career and/or nonwaged housing researchers and practitioners • The prestigious annual Valerie Karn prize for best paper by an early career housing researcher.

Become a member from just £25 a year and access these benefits plus reduced rates to our events.

See www.housing-studies-association.org Follow us on twitter @HSA_UK.

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Who are the new vulnerable?

These are the individuals that, pre-Covid, were gettingby but, due to the personal, economic or psychological impacts of coronavirus, are now struggling to support themselves and their family.

Housing associations need to be prepared to support these groups and with the same compassion as those that faced the primary impacts.

The challenges are identifying these individuals and households and understanding how many of your customers are affected. These unknowns will also be much dependant on government policy and funding availability, which is still being shaped.

Using data effectively we can start to predict, monitor and act to meet the needs of the new vulnerable.

Figure 1 illustrates that we can already start to see that the long-term impacts of Covid-19 are not going to be spread equally. The chart shows that the demographic groups that were already most reliant on social housing (to the right of the chart) are more likely to have lost their job or been furloughed since the lockdown, based on our survey at the start of May. Figure 2 shows that throughout the stages of lockdown low income groups have been more active than the UK average. Their movement outside of their local neighbourhood dropped to about 24% of pre-Covid

levels at the height of lockdown, some five percentage points above the UK average.

This higher than average level of activity is likely to reflect the following key factors: • The larger proportion of key workers in the most active, lower income groups • Less ability of lower income groups to work from home due to their job roles and home space • Those with reduced space at home, and no garden or food storage space, having to make more trips outside of their local area.

These two charts demonstrate that those that were already vulnerable are facing higher risks moving forward. So, it could be that to find and support the new vulnerable, you need to redouble your efforts with those that were already on your radar and then simply spread the net wider to support those sharing similar characteristics that were previously coping, but now risk falling into arrears.

The charts also illustrate how, by segmenting your customers and overlaying other data sources, you can start to test different scenarios to predict who will need your support moving forward, and how it might impact your services.

Figure 3 shows the areas of the country that CACI flagged, prior to Covid-19, as facing housing vulnerability.

Figure 1 – Selected Impacts of Covid-19 on Acorn Group

Increasing affluence

Source: CACI / ResearchBods

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The wards shaded red are areas with high levels of private rental and with the lowest level of disposable income once local market rents have been paid.

Are these the new vulnerable? Will these be the areas in need of increased social housing if the secondary impacts of Covid-19 mean that residents can no longer pay the local market rents?

Will the spike of “City Sophisticates” losing their job (shown in Figure 1) create a new group requiring housing support, or result in a fall in housing organisations’ private

or market rental income that in turn supports your social occupiers?

As social housing providers you have access to a wealth of data about your customers that can help you monitor and act as we move through the stages of the pandemic. Combining these insights with wider market data will enhance your understanding of their needs and help you to identify those with similar characteristics that may also need priority support, as well as in planning and mitigating risk to your organisation.

Figure 2 – Relative activity by selected Acorn Groups outside of neighbourhood of residence or work

Source: CACI / Location Sciences (Weekly data indexed against activity levels in February)

Figure 3 – Remaining Income after Private Rent (red shaded areas are the most vulnerable)

Source: CACI, PayCheck Disposable Income Model

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Five-year research project examines housing issues in Wales Catherine May, Project Manager, CIH Cymru, outlines the Tyfu Tai Cymru five-year policy and research project that is part of the Chartered Institute of Housing in Wales.

We see our role is to feed the voices that are not always heard in mainstream housing in Wales into the policy debate. We do this by focusing on the topics people tell us matter to them and by publishing research that uncovers issues that might otherwise be overlooked.

Our name in Welsh means ‘building homes’. We are funded by Oak Foundation and have three objectives: to improve and increase the numbers and quality of homes; to amplify the voice of housing professionals in local government; and to demonstrate housing’s role in keeping people healthy.

Voices Central to Tyfu Tai Cymru is that we are informed by people living and working across Wales. We hold regular forums where we ask people “what matters to you”?

Their responses are then fed into our plans and published in our report Housing Voices. We reflect on this regularly and are proud that what we are able to represent many voices in our work. All the research below came from the priorities that we gathered during our forums in 2018 and 2019.

Improve housing supply We launched Tyfu Tai Cymru in April 2018 with the publication of research into the perceptions people hold on housing, social housing and homelessness in Wales. We wanted to understand the extent to which people hold negative views towards social housing and how these may impact on policy and practice. We found that while 72% of people thought the government needed to do more to prevent street homelessness, only a third wanted social housing built near them. This tells us there is still a way to go to persuade people of the solutions to the housing crisis. We hope to repeat this survey towards the end of our five-year project (which was conducted on our behalf by YouGov) to understand how much views have changed.

Housing professionals in local government We recognise local government as a key partner in providing homes for people, and that staff in housing departments may feel they do not have many opportunities to share their experiences. In 2018, we

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asked housing professionals their views on local government restructures. Many of them told us they could see the benefits of merging some services and databases and also their dedication to being able to deliver to local communities. We shared this with decision-makers and will bring to discussions when the next iteration of a map of local government in Wales is published.

Demonstrating housing’s role in keeping people healthy In February 2019 we launched our research (carried out with Tai Pawb) which looked at the extent to which tenants with mental health problems in the private rented sector (PRS) are able to access support with their housing as and when needed. This was in recognition of the lack of knowledge of the needs of tenants and landlords in the PRS. Our report found that support organisations, tenants and landlords would like more support and information about how to access services when experiencing mental health problems. There are strong indications that people with mental health problems sometimes face discrimination when trying to access PRS housing. Housing Related Support is the main service that focuses on supporting people with mental health problems to access and maintain PRS housing,

but does not always reach this group. We subsequently worked with Welsh Government to implement the recommendations and have seen the issues we raised documented in the action plan for improving mental health services across Wales.

Under this heading we also wanted to know what it is that makes some partnerships between housing, health and social care sustainable and effective. We worked with the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (CaCHE) to look at a range of projects from all over Wales, including those which reduce delays in returning home from hospital, reducing loneliness and isolation, and specialist accommodation with support. Based on what people told us we devised a model of six principles which underpin all great partnerships: shared analysis and solutions; being person-centered; leadership; joint budgets; shared interpretation of legislation; and recognition of power-imbalances. We launched our report at the Public Health Wales conference and we continue to share our case studies and research with people from all three sectors as part of discussions about the transformative power of good collaboration.

Covid-19 and what’s changed

to access our usual inspiration from meeting people and learning about their priorities. It is also an incredibly difficult time for many people personally and at work, and we are aware that we do not want to burden people who are already hugely stretched.

Despite this we have continued to focus on the topics people told us mattered to them. We have two pieces of research to publish over the next few months. The first will describe the challenges and priorities facing housing professionals in local authorities, as they told us what makes them enjoy their work and what they would like to have more support with. The second piece of research has been a look at the allocations policies across different parts of Wales and highlighting what works and where there is room for improvement. As we move into a world where the need for a safe home has been brought to the front of the policy debate, we think this will be a useful contribution to the discussion about who accesses social housing and how.

We started 2020 with a focus on the steps needed to reduce the carbon cost of housing in all tenures, and this is likely to continue to be a focus as we all seek to answer the question about what is needed to create a healthy, fair and green future for everyone in Wales.

As with all organisations we are having to work very differently, suddenly being home-based and not able

To talk about any of these topics, and plenty more contact us at: catherine.may@cih.org

What do past ‘crises’ tell us about the future of housing policy post-Covid-19?

“Unprecedented” is the word we all turn to when trying to get a grasp on the Covid-19 pandemic, writes Dr Chris Foye, Knowledge Exchange Associate for CaCHE. In terms of the damage wreaked on the economy, the constraints imposed on civil liberties, and the harrowing loss of life, the pandemic is a wrecking ball without modern precedent. But that does not mean we are completely in the dark when understanding its implications. If we want to know how housing policy might pan out in the aftermath of Covid-19 then it might help to look back at previous ‘crises’, and in particular the last global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008.

This was the rationale for a rapidly assembled – and far from systematic – literature review that I have conducted with Ken Gibb and Alex Marsh as part of the new CaCHE Covid-19 suite of research projects. We wanted to know how policymaking processes – and the politics surrounding them – change both in the ‘eye of the storm’ of crises and their aftermath.

The major immediate effect of crises is to force the state to intervene to meet the short-term physical and financial needs of citizens, often through centralising

power and circumventing the usual formal decisionmaking processes. It is this expansion of the state which often leads people to assume that crises are an opportunity for “the left”. In response to Covid-19, the state has already increased housing benefit and Universal Credit, dramatically reduced rough sleeping, and suspended evictions in the PRS – policies which many charities have been campaigning on for years.

We just need to look to the last GFC, however, to realise that state intervention in the market need not be progressive. The sharp decline in homeownership postGFC was used as the justification for introducing First Buy in 2011, and then its successor Help to Buy in 2013.

Despite benefitting those better-off renters who would have been able to access homeownership in any case (Meeks and Meeks, 2018), as well as housebuilders, this policy has remained in place across the UK while the welfare state has shrunk. Likewise, IPPR (2020) recently cautioned against assuming the government’s Job Retention Scheme to be ‘progressive’: landlords and banks are likely to be the ultimate recipients of almost half the support provided, in the form of rents, debt and mortgage payments.

In times of crisis, framing plays a crucial role in determining which kinds of policies are implemented and consequently which interests are advanced. As the population searches for an explanation and a way out, different sides put forward competing ‘frames’ or ‘causal narratives’. Ultimately, the GFC was successfully SUMMER 2020 |

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framed as a crisis of state largesse that needed to be addressed through ‘austerity’. There was nothing inevitable about this, however. As Mark Blyth (2013) has argued, the austerity frame succeeded largely because it resonates with ‘common sense’ notions of not spending more than you have, rather than its credibility among macroeconomists, most of whom advised against severe cuts in public spending.

What then are the framing battles associated with the Covid-19 crisis? One of the most consequential issues, at least in political economic terms, relates to the PRS. With private tenants’ incomes being hit hard – and likely to be hit much harder once the furlough scheme is phased out – rental arrears are accruing which cannot be paid back by tenants in full. Mass evictions could result. To avoid this happening the arrears will either have to be borne by the state, or by landlords and banks through some form of rent and mortgage payment forgiveness (or retrospective taxation). So far the government has been kicking this can down the road by demanding a pause in evictions and implementing a ‘freeze’ in mortgage payments, but the problem will eventually have to be confronted. Will preventing homelessness or preserving incomes to property owners be prioritised?

In another echo from 2008-10, a framing battle is also emerging in England over the deregulation of the planning system, and the purported ability of developers to deliver the affordable housing promised.

The government has already declared its interest in extending permitted development rights: the coming economic slump could provide the rationale for doing so, thus depriving local authorities of much needed S106 contributions. Citing the need to give SMEs ‘breathing space’, the government has also called for agreed S106 contributions to be deferred for smaller developments.

As I write, the Prime Minister has just criticised Sadiq Khan for imposing ‘quite challenging targets for social housing that basically make development impossible’. Could this be the start of an attempt to pry open again the viability loophole, thus socialising the losses of private developers?

Comparisons with the GFC only take us so far. The current economic crisis is of a much larger magnitude, and the housing system is much less resilient now than it was in 2007 (Stephens, 2020). Consequently, the government may not be able to fully protect ‘rentier capital’ (eg maintain house price inflation and protect private landlord and bank income streams) without evicting private renters en masse and/or dramatically increasing public debt. The one ‘escape’ from this trade-off would be to promote long-term increases in productivity. Could this crisis therefore push the government to invest in affordable housing as a countercyclical fiscal stimulus and form of public infrastructure, as proposed by many including Shelter? How policy plays out will ultimately depend upon politics as well as the evidence.

Exploring the links between housing and food insecurity People with food insecurity also have widespread and serious housing problems, a study of foodbank users has found.

More than four in five of the 598 people surveyed for the research had problems, including current rent arrears, difficulty affording rent, problems with their housing conditions, or homelessness.

Some 17% were homeless; 47% were social renters; 31% private renters; and 4% were owner occupiers.

Highlighting the housing insecurity of foodbank users, 42% had moved in the previous year. Significant numbers were unable to work because of illness or disability.

A third of those surveyed had faced rising housing costs over that time, and 8% had had unexpected costs such as repairs. Owner occupiers were most likely to report leaking roofs or damp in their homes, with private renters second. Although those in social renting generally reported fewer problems, over one fifth were

Evidence newsletter editor: Dr Janis Bright www.hqnetwork.co.uk email: evidence@hqnetwork.co.uk  follow us on twitter @hqn_ltd

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living in a home with damp, indicating, the authors say, that ‘foodbank users may be clustered in the worst social housing’.

More than half of the total sample said they had not been able to heat their home over more than four days in any month in the last year.

The authors suggest that the high proportion of social renters in the survey may relate to the likelihood of referral. Social landlords could be referring their tenants to foodbanks when needed, whereas private renters in need may not be connected to referring agencies.

The authors conclude that the findings ‘point to the need to address the joint strains of housing unaffordability, housing insecurity and food insecurity among low-income households in Britain’.

Full study by Amy Clair, Jasmine Fledderjohann, Doireann Lalor and Rachel Loopstra: https://bit.ly/31fLXOf

Back up!

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales wants to see reverse stress testing (RST).

That’s their response to the uncertainty of Covid-19. What is RST? How can you do it? Will it help with your in depth assessment?

Forward (or traditional) stress testing

Brexit Covid-19 Zero carbon Fire safety Black swans

What events, in the future, can break the business plan? (Many use Bank of England scenarios as a starting point)

Reverse stress testing What size of cash losses will break the business? Will sharp drops in valuation breach covenants?

What happens when liquidity dries up?

Risks: purely financial focus and hoarding cash to the detriment of your mission

Risks: optimism bias and unwillingness to consider the unexpected Triggers – leading indicators such as projections of arrears, build cost inflation and funding rates

Mitigations – such as cost cutting, agile working, channel shift, asset sales and mergers

Read the ICAEW Covid-19 advice here – ICAEW releases RST and going concern for preparers guides

How HQN can help We take your latest financial forecast return and input it into our interactive model Forward stress testing – our model shows the impact on your covenants and golden rules of multiple adverse scenarios

Reverse stress testing – our model breaks your business plan by cutting income, increasing costs, and breaching covenants

Board discussion – we facilitate a debate amongst board members about the steps needed to rectify covenant breaches and return to solvency while staying true to purpose – outputs of the session will be keener awareness of triggers for action and effective deployment of the mitigations that are right for you.

We produce a report summarising the stresses and mitigations your board applied to the business plan – this is an important piece of evidence so that the RSH can see that ALL the board is aware of stress testing.

You get to keep and use our stress testing model (based on your current FFR).

HQN has run over 100 stress testing exercises and we now offer this via Zoom, Google Meet, and Microsoft Teams.

Understandably a board member was concerned about the value of a remote exercise – “However, the interactive nature of the model and the knowledge of those doing the presentation made this a very worthwhile couple of hours. Being able to play with the model and adjust the stress testing parameters made it more realistic, particularly in these challenging environments. Well done.”

For further information please contact Anna Pattison on 01904 557197 or anna.pattison@hqnetwork.co.uk

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The importance of welfare during the pandemic

Covid-19 has led to changes in the welfare system most people believed were unthinkable without a change of government, writes Jules Birch.

Universal Credit allowances were increased by around ÂŁ80 a month. Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates, left languishing far below actual rents after a fouryear freeze in most working age benefits, were restored to the 30th percentile of local market rents.

Evictions of social and private tenants were effectively banned via a moratorium on possessions actions in the courts that ran first to 25 June and then was extended to 23 August.

And, most eye-catchingly of all, rough sleeping was almost brought to an end not by 2025 (an unlikely sounding promise in the Conservative manifesto) but in the space of a weekend at the end of March as local authorities used empty hotel rooms to accommodate them.

All of this was driven by a pandemic that had already led to 1.2 million new claims for Universal Credit in the first month of the lockdown and the government introducing unprecedented, multi-billion pound subsidies to companies to furlough 7.5 million workers.

As the deficit soared it was enough to make you wonder what the last decade of austerity and the

misery inflicted on benefit claimants was all about.

Yet all of these measures have one thing in common: they are temporary.

Most immediately, the extension of the evictions ban only moves the cliff edge to the end of August unless the government takes further action to protect renters who have built up arrears in the meantime.

Support from the furlough scheme will start to taper off in August, when similar help for the self-employed also expires, leaving many of those lucky enough to have benefitted so far with less money coming in to pay their rent.

For those forced to rely on them, and that includes many people who did not qualify to be furloughed, those increases in Universal Credit and LHA may be very welcome but they are for this financial year only.

And all this is before you start to consider what has not changed in a benefits system that has become meaner and more conditional over the last decade.

The LHA effectively reverses cuts made since 2011 but not those introduced before that. Campaigners say that at the very least it needs to be restored to the 50th percentile of local rents but even this would leave some people who have lost their job with a shortfall.

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under-35s, who continue to be paid the lower shared accommodation rate even if they live in a self-contained flat.

Universal Credit may have been increased but new claimants still find it a shock when they have to wait five weeks for their first payment. Landlords say this was a major trigger for arrears even before the pandemic.

And many families with children or those who live in the most expensive parts of the country may not actually receive the benefit increases because of other caps built into the system that have not been adjusted, especially if landlords respond by increasing their rents to the new LHA levels.

A two-child limit has applied to all new claims for Universal Credit and tax credits since 2017, and the Child Poverty Action Group and the Church of England estimated an additional 60,000 families have been affected by the policy as a result of Covid-19.

The benefit cap makes things even worse. Originally introduced in 2013, the cap was reduced to £23,000 for a family (£15,410 for a single person) in London and £20,000 (£13,400) elsewhere in 2015 and has not been increased in the five years since.

The government justified it in the name of fairness to ‘hard working families’ even though it overwhelmingly affects people with very young children who are not otherwise required to look for work.

Those already capped will receive nothing extra from the increases in other benefits. Research for the Greater London Authority estimates 22,300 households in the capital are in this position and have lost out on an average of £219 a month.

Another 22,000 existing claimants will become capped because of the increases, with the impacts spreading from inner to outer London.

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And perhaps another 25,000 could be capped when the furlough scheme ends and unemployment starts to rise.

All of these estimates are for London only and the impacts will also be felt in higher-rent areas outside the capital.

On top of that, anyone who has worked for 50 out of the last 52 weeks is exempt from the cap for a ninemonth grace period – but that will not help those who lose their job because of Covid-19 after less than a year.

The Social Security Advisory Committee wants ministers to adjust the benefit cap to reflect the original intention of the coronavirus increases for claimants and to suspend the shared accommodation rate.

For all these reasons the financial position of tenants – and therefore by extension landlords – is far more precarious than you might think from a quick look at the benefit increases and income support schemes.

A clutch of surveys has revealed some alarming indications of what may be on the horizon, with 1.7 million tenants in England expecting to lose their jobs in the next three months and 2.6 million private tenants saying they have already missed a rent payment.

Two big issues are now looming on the horizon.

First, what will happen to rough sleepers when their emergency accommodation comes to an end?

The government has appointed Dame Louise Casey to coordinate work with local authorities and the voluntary sector and insists its policies are working.

But there are still major questions over the resources available, the number of rough sleepers who need help and the plight of those who have No Recourse to Public Funds (of whom Boris Johnson seemed blissfully unaware when questioned by MPs).

Second, what is to stop a wave of evictions and homelessness when the evictions ban runs out?

The Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) is calling for a comprehensive post-Covid solution that will address those holes in the benefits safety net, put extra legal protections in place for renters and support landlords.

For renters, it says there should be a temporary ban on evictions arising solely from Covid-related arrears, an end to Section 21 evictions and a suspension of possessions under Ground 8 for rent arrears. Without these measures, judges will not be able to take the circumstances into account.

Any tenant who had agreed a payment plan for their arrears and complied with it for two years could not be evicted and there would be more help available from discretionary housing payments.

Private landlords who have benefitted from a mortgage payment holiday would be expected to pass on relief to their tenants but they should also be eligible for interest-free loans (as they already are in Scotland).

For social landlords, the CIH says the government should consider one-off payments to stabilise their accounts where these can be shown to be needed.

If all of these measures sound like big asks, the alternatives of rising rent arrears and homelessness could prove even more expensive for the government.

In the post-Covid world there are no easy choices, but keeping as many people in their homes as possible looks like a good place to start.

The last word Why we need ‘Everybody in’ for good The new ways of working during lockdown also paved the way for unprecedented local partnership working, community innovation and the successful engagement of individuals with complex needs for the first time.

By Tasmin Maitland, Assistant Director of Practice and Partnerships at Homeless Link, the national membership charity for frontline homelessness services

As lockdown restrictions gradually lift, the homelessness sector is emerging from the immediate Covid-19 public health emergency.

The government directive to bring ‘Everyone In’ saw around 15,000 people offered hotel and similar accommodation, with thousands more receiving ongoing support in hostels to socially distance safely and cope with the disruption this crisis has caused to their daily lives.

The efforts of homelessness services nationwide to adapt and innovate, alongside decisive action by local and national government, has demonstrated that the right level of focus and investment can reduce rough sleeping.

The new ways of working during lockdown also paved the way for unprecedented local partnership working, community innovation and the successful engagement of individuals with complex needs for the first time.

As we approach the next phase of the response, we have a unique opportunity to build on this progress, providing sustainable accommodation solutions for those brought in through the government directive, while supporting those newly at risk of homelessness due to Covid-19, including those with No

Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF).

Youth-specific solutions will be needed to ensure young people are not left behind, with the government response to date overwhelmingly focusing on adult provision and thereby widening the inequality gap for young people facing homelessness.

It will also be imperative that we tackle the systemic factors causing homelessness in the first place, including the under-supply of affordable housing, health inequalities and a precarious welfare system.

The government’s rough sleeping taskforce will advise councils on plans to support rough sleepers into long-term, safe accommodation, and Homeless Link is calling for urgent national and local action to end rough sleeping for good, by implementing a plan – #EveryoneInForGood – guided by three principles.

1. Nobody returns or is new to the street. Everybody in emergency Covid-19 accommodation must have somewhere suitable to live when they leave; anybody newly at risk of rough sleeping should be provided with assistance; councils must continue to

provide suitable emergency accommodation to everyone without alternatives, including those with NRPF. 2. Everybody receives appropriate support to keep their accommodation, backed by long-term government funding.

3. No return to business as usual, committing to integrate public health and clinical input into homelessness provision so that a public health approach is maintained.

Finding solutions will rely on true collaboration, and efforts are already underway to free up new supply, redesign service delivery, and support day-services to reestablish provision in a world where social distancing may remain for some time.

Ensuring Housing First is available to those experiencing multiple disadvantage must be a crucial part of national and local plans, and with the government rolling out 6,000 new supported units, this should be achievable.

If we work in this way, it will be possible to end rough sleeping for good.

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Dates for your diary!

Our specialist network annual conferences are coming up so get the dates in your diary now!

With all our events now being held virtually, there has never been an easier time to join in.

20 August 2020

The Strategic Housing Conference 2020

25 August 2020

The RIEN Scottish Annual Conference 2020 – Managing income and sustaining tenancies

24 September 2020

The Equality and Diversity Network annual conference 2020

15 October 2020

The Asset Management Network annual conference 2020

22 October 2020

The Rent Income Excellence Network (RIEN) annual conference 2020

5 November 2020

The SAFETYnet annual conference 2020

19 November 2020

The Housing Management Network annual conference 2020

3 December 2020

The Residents’ Network annual conference 2020

For full details and to book your place visit hqnetwork.co.uk/events