February 2024
Never Forget Who You Are . . . and What It Took To Get Here
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
Home Prices
The Narrative We Must Combat Percent of Americans Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months 37% 35%
31%
32% 28% 26%
26%
24%
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
23%
23%
24%
24%
August September October November December
Source: Fannie Mae
~ 1 of 4 Still Believe Prices Will Depreciate
Current Home Price Appreciation
49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement NSA Month-Over-Month 1973–2022
0.86
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.25
0.25 0.15
0.12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0.10
0.12
Nov
Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973–2022 and 2023 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
49-Year Average 2023
1.5 1.3 1.2
0.86
0.9
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64 0.6 0.44 0.4
0.30
0.25
0.2
0.3 0.15
0.10
0.2 0.10
-0.2 -0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Case-Shiller
Case-Shiller: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 0.9
0.7
0.7
0.7 0.6
0.6
0.5 0.4
0.2
0.2
-0.2
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
FHFA: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 0.8
0.8
0.8 0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
Oct
Nov
0.1
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month
Case-Shiller 0.9
0.7 0.4
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
-0.2
FHFA 0.8 0.5
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.6 0.3
0.3
Oct
Nov
0.1
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1%. - Brian D. Luke, Head of Real & Digital Assets, S&P DJI.
House prices rose 6.6% from November 2022 to November 2023. - FHFA, Home Price Index
Case-Shiller Home Price Movement One Year Change in Percent Appreciation in Top 20 Cities U.S. National: 5.1%
Metro
% Change
Metro
% Change
Atlanta
5.9%
Miami
7.2%
Boston
7.1%
Minneapolis
2.7%
Charlotte
7.0%
New York
7.4%
Chicago
7.0%
Phoenix
2.5%
Cleveland
7.4%
Portland
-0.7%
Dallas
1.7%
San Diego
8.0%
Denver
1.5%
San Francisco
2.0%
Detroit
8.2%
Seattle
1.6%
Las Vegas
2.1%
Tampa
3.4%
Los Angeles
7.2%
Washington, D.C.
4.7% Source: Case-Shiller
Freddie Mac: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 0.8 0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
Nov
Dec
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Percent of Annual Home Appreciation 1980–2023, Seasonally Adjusted, Rounded To Nearest Full Number 20%
15%
10%
4.86% 43-Year Average
5%
0%
Each December as compared to previous December -5%
-10%
-15%
1980
1990
2000
2010
2023 Source: Freddie Mac
Percent of Home Price Appreciation Seasonally Adjusted, Rounded To Nearest Full Number Each December as compared to previous December
297%
103% 54% 7% 30 Year
10 Year
5 Year
1 Year Source: Freddie Mac
Future Home Price Appreciation
2024 Home Price Forecasts Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 1/29/2024
5.0 4.1 3.5 2.7
3.2
2.8
2.4
1.9
-1.7 Average of All 8
Goldman Sachs
MBA
Zillow
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
HPES
NAR
Realtor.com
2024 Home Price Forecasts Forecasts from 11/2023 vs. Current Forecasts Entity
Original Forecast
Current Forecast
Goldman Sachs
1.9%
5.0%
Mortgage Bankers Association
1.1%
4.1%
Zillow
0.2%
3.5%
Fannie Mae
2.8%
3.2%
Freddie Mac
2.6%
2.8%
Home Price Expectation Survey
2.2%
2.4%
National Association of Realtors
0.7%
1.9%
Mortgage Rates
What Determines the Mortgage Rate? The 10-Year Yield and the Spread Above It Spread (Difference Between the Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Yield) 10-Year Treasury Yield
Mortgage Rate 6.92% 2.9
4.02 Actual Rate Friday, 2/2/2024 Source: Freddie Mac and CNBC
The spread is not always consistent. It actually widens during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, as has been the case in today's market. - Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American
A primary driver of the increase in the yield over 2023 was inflation expectations. . . . So the higher the current rate of inflation and, more importantly, the higher the expected future rates of inflation, the higher the yield on the 10-year as investors demand to be compensated for that inflation risk into the future.
- Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American
There is reason to believe that the rate lock-in effect will ease modestly this year as mortgage rates come down. And you could only imagine if they got below six, then even more people would be again ‘in the money’ and homeowners will become less anchored to that low, low rate that they got a few years ago.
- Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American
It also appears that mortgage rates are now falling again. They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.
- Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research
We anticipate that after the past several years of extreme volatility in interest rates, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate will continue to moderate over the course of 2024, moving toward a rate below 6 percent by year end.
- Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
Mortgage Rate Projections Fannie Mae
Quarter
December 2023
January 2024
2024 Q1
7.0%
6.4%
2024 Q2
6.8%
6.2%
2024 Q3
6.6%
6.0%
2024 Q4
6.5%
5.8%
Mortgage Rate Projections Fannie Mae
Quarter
December 2023
January 2024
2024 Q1
7.0%
6.4%
2024 Q2
6.8%
6.2%
2024 Q3
6.6%
6.0%
2024 Q4
6.5%
5.8%
If enough people have the same gut feeling about you, then you have a brand.
- Marty Neumeier, Director of CEO Branding, Liquid Agency
The 3 Key Terms that Will Impact the 2024 Housing Market
1.) “Switching costs” is a term to describe the economic and psychological costs people feel when switching from one alternative to another. Think switching from a 4% mortgage rate to a 6.5% rate. 2.) “Seller impatience” is a term to describe overcoming the sticker shock that has prevented people from moving on with their lives. Think “It is what it is.” 3.) “Lifestyle changes” is a term to describe life events that motivate a move. Think pregnancy, marriage, divorce, etc.
Realize that none talk about numbers. Each talks about people.
▪ Promote Home Price Stability
90-Day Work Plan
▪ Broadcast the Mortgage Rate
▪ Get the Slides on Your Phone! ▪ Build Your Brand on Social! ▪ Prospect! Prospect! Prospect! ▪ Never Forget Who You Are
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
5
Americans Prices Graph
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-surveyarchive
8, 9
49-Year Monthly Price Graphs
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
10
Case-Shiller Prices Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
11
FHFA Prices Graph
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
12
Percent Change in Home Values Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
13
House Prices Rising Quotes
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/a nnouncements/20240130-1470316/1470316_cshomepricerelease-0130.pdf
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
14
Case-Shiller Price Movement Table
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/a nnouncements/20240130-1470316/1470316_cshomepricerelease-0130.pdf
15-17
Freddie Mac Prices Graphs
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex
2024 Home Price Forecasts Graph and Table
https://www.zillow.com/research/2024-housing-predictions33447/ https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housingforecast/ https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/forecast -q1-2024-us-economic-outlook-01-26-2024.pdf https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/ushome-prices-forecast-to-climb-as-mortgage-rates-fall-in2024.html https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/forecasts-andcommentary/mortgage-finance-forecast-archives https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/ https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50096/display https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20240122us-economy-continues-expand
19-20
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
22
What Determines Mortgage Rate? Graph
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y https://www.freddiemac.com/home
23-25
Odeta Kushi and Mark Fleming Quotes
https://blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podcast/is-the-housingmarket-poised-to-rebound-in-2024
Dean Baker Quote
https://cepr.net/contrary-to-what-the-washington-post-tellsyou-homeownership-rates-for-young-people-are-above-thepre-pandemic-level/
27
Doug Duncan Quote
https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-maenews/mortgage-rates-expected-dip-below-6-percent-2024boosting-home-sales
28-29
Mortgage Rate Projections Tables
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49866/display https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50096/display
26
Updates
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
41
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
42-44, 51, 53, 54, Existing Home Sales 61-64
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
45-47
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
48
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
49-50
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
55-57
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
58
CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
60-66
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
68
Showing Activity
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
70, 71, 73, 74
72
76, 77
Home Sales
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Average Days on the Market
December 2023 49
46 44 4141
38
36 36
29
26
24 27 36 33
29 27 26
24 2222
21212121 20 18
171717171717 1818 1919 18 19
1717 16 34
3131 29 29
26
24 25
22 23
2020
21
1818
16
1414
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 7,000,000
6,500,000
6,000,000
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
-1.4%
-4.4% -6.2%
-9.6% -10.9% Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: NAR
New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060
960
860
760
660
560
460
360 jun-14
Jan15
Jan16
Jan17
Jan18
Jan19
Jan20
Jan21
Jan22
Jan23
Source: Census
New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
15%
14%
9% 7%
*
*
0% Under $150K
$150-$199K
4% $200-299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Source: Census
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
1.9
2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6
2.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
2.5
3.2
3.5 3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6
3.2
4.1 4.5
4.5
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
5.1 4.9
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
2023
676 646 567
604
593
587
557
524
436 423
577
575
574
557
528
517 475
443 422
631
491
495
432
421
477 453 403
397
419 383
325
372 342
374 347
286
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: Census
Pending Home Sales 140
130
120
110
100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 90
80
70
60January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region
4.3%
1.5%
1.3%
U.S.
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Northeast
Midwest
South
1.5%
West
-3.9%
Source: NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented 2% of sales in December. 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
4% 0% Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region 9.4%
5.9%
4.8%
4.4%
U.S.
3.8%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
14.0%
5.7% -2.9% -7.1%
-18.0%
% change in sales
$0-100K -18.0%
-16.6% $100-250K -16.6%
$250-500K -7.1%
$500-750K -2.9%
$750K-1M 5.7%
$1M+ 14.0% Source: NAR
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jun Jan 2012 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
-3% Nov
Oct
Sept
August
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2023
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2022
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2021
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2020
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2019
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2018
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan 2017
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 22%
17%
12%
7%
2%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1% 21.2%
20.5% 18.7%
16.0%
13.1%
10.4% 8.6%
6.8% 4.6%
2.6% 1.0%
1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
-0.2%
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan Feb 2023
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – November 2023
5.2%
2.5%
Current
Forecast Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, January 2024
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5 3.2
3.6 3.5
3.3 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.5
3.0 3.8
3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months
15.3%
15.3%
5.4% 4.2% 1.0% May
Jan-23
Feb
Mar
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
0.9% Nov
Apr
Dec
-5.7%
-6.1% -8.1%
-13.6%
-14.6%
-14.1%
Source: NAR
New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months 9.4 8.8
8.5
8.4
8.1
8.2
8.1
7.9 7.6
7.5 7.2
Nov
Dec
Jan 23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
7.8 7.5
7.1
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Census
New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2022 2023
11.4 10.9
10.7
10.8
10.4 9.7
9.5 9.2
9.1 8.8 8.4 8
7.9 7.6
7.6 6.9
7.6
7.5 7.2
7
6.3 5.9 5.6
Jan
5.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Census
Buyer Demand
Showing Index Showing Index over the Last 5 Decembers
176.1 156.2
122.2
121.6
2022
2023
106.2
2019
2020
2021
Source: ShowingTime
Mortgage Rates
8.0
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023 10/5/2023 11/02/2023 11/30/2023 12/28/2023 1/25/2024
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 6.63%
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.63% 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0
5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections January 2023
Quarter
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Three
2024 Q1
6.40%
7.00%
6.80%
6.73%
2024 Q2
6.20%
6.60%
6.60%
6.47%
2024 Q3
6.00%
6.30%
6.30%
6.20%
2024 Q4
5.80%
6.10%
6.10%
6.00%
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0
7.0
7.0 6.6 6.3
6.0
6.1
5.0
Where Are They Going?
4.0
3.0
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates 2.0
2023 Q4
2024 Q1
2024 Q2
2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual - Projected
7.5
2023
7
6.5
6
2024 5.5
5
2019
4.5
2022 4
2018
2020
3.5
2021 3
2.5 Rate
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.0
7.4
7
6.6
6.3
6.1
Source: MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) December 2023 190 180
170 160 150 140 130
120 110 100 90 Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: MBA
Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900
Housing Bubble: 868.7
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
92.1 100
0 June 2004
June 2006
June 2008
June 2010
June 2012
June 2014
June 2016
June 2018
June 2020
June 2022
December 2023
Source: MBA