October 2023
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
Foreclosures Are Increasing
Number of Foreclosures Near All-Time Lows Quarterly Number of Consumers with New Foreclosures in Thousands 600
500
400
300
200
Foreclosure Moratorium 100
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: The Fed
AirBNBs Will Crash the Housing Market
Realtor.com and CensusWide
2023 Short-Term Rental Survey
59.8% Would consider renting out their current house rather than sell it, if they were to buy or rent another home in the future.
≈20%
≈18%
It would be great to have extra income from a renter
The idea of owning a rental or investment property appeals to me
Listings for Short-Term Rentals Down 77% The Number of Short-Term Rental Listings in NYC
22,500
4,600
June 4th 2023
September 10th 2023 Source: Skift
The Flip Side of the Issue
In 2016, the state of Arizona passed a law that . . . bans all of its cities and towns from capping their number of short-term rentals. At the start of 2023, Phoenix had over 20,000 short-term rental units, and all that competition has led to many of them sitting empty for weeks at a time.
- Brenden Rearick, Financial News Writer, Money
Wall Street Is Buying Every Home in America
Total Purchases by Size of Investor U.S. National Investor Purchases Through Q2 2023
125,006
16,928 3,070
1,959
4,692
iBuyers
1,000+ Properties
100-999 Properties
10-99 Properties
1-9 Properties Mom & Pop
Source: John Burns Consulting
Percent of All Sales by Size of Investor Percent of U.S. Investor Purchases of Total National Sales Through Q2 2023
19.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.7%
iBuyers
1,000+ Properties
100-999 Properties
2.7% 10-99 Properties
1-9 Properties Mom & Pop
Source: John Burns Consulting
More Potential Sellers Deciding To Rent Percent of Sellers Who Want To Rent Their Home Because of Mortgage Rates
11% 10% 9%
7%
7% 6%
6%
6% 4%
National Southern Southwest Texas California
Midwest
Florida
4%
Northeast Northern Southeast Northwest California Source: John Burns Consulting
Apartment construction is roaring along at a 40-year high. That means more choices for renters, likely at lower rents, as everyone jockeys for tenants.
- Lew Sichelman, Author, "The Housing Scene" Column
Rental Owners’ Plans To Sell Properties in the 2 Years To Come 56%
32% 20% 13%
12%
Likely To Sell
Slightly Likely
Slightly Unlikely
Unlikely To Sell Source: Buildium
Inventory
What we didn't expect - especially considering 7+ percent mortgage rates - was more new listings.
- Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist, Zillow
New Listings Tick Up This Month New Monthly Listing Counts 650,000
600,000
550,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Nov
Dec
2023
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
August 2023 387,076 -7.5% Y-O-Y
300,000
250,000
200,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source: Realtor.com
70.7% of Mortgage Rates Less Than 4% Current Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination
44.7%
26.0% 20.3%
≤ 3%
3.01-4%
4.01-5%
5.3%
3.7%
5.01-6%
> 6% Source: FHFA
Lock-In Rates Limit New Inventory Current Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination
Probably
Yes
Not Selling Must Think Hard Before Selling
≤ 3% 3.01-4% 4.01-5% 5.01-6% > 6%
Probably Not Selling
Source: FHFA
Mortgage Rates Are Less Relevant to Older Homeowners
About 1 in 4 U.S. homeowners (26%) say high mortgage rates would not impact their decision on when to sell their home.
Of those 26% of homeowners, 43% say it’s because they would not need a mortgage to buy a new home. Source: Credit Karma
Mortgage Rates Are Less Relevant to Older Homeowners Percent Not Impacted by Generation
35%
23%
20% 14%
Baby Boomers
Gen X
Millennials
Gen Z Source: Credit Karma
Equity
Percent Change in Home Prices Over 5 Years, Q2 2023
Source: FHFA
Percent Change in Home Prices Since Q1 1991, Q2 2023
Source: FHFA
Americans Sitting on Tremendous Equity 68.7% Have Paid off Their Mortgage or Have at Least 50% Equity
Mortgaged Homes w/ > 50% Equity Mortgaged Homes w/ 30-50% Equity
38.7%
30%
Mortgaged Homes w/ 10-30% Equity
Mortgaged Homes w/ 0-9% Equity
20.8% 0.12%
1.72%
8.6%
Mortgaged Homes in Negative Equity Owns the Home Free and Clear Source: FHFA, Census, ATTOM
Quarterly gains added almost $13,900; the average U.S. homeowner now has about $290,000 in equity.
- CoreLogic 2Q Equity Report
1. Ability To Be an All-Cash Buyer:
No mortgage payments and sellers may be more inclined to accept offers from buyers who make cash offers.
3 Major Advantages To Having That Equity
2. Ability To Give Larger Down Payment:
A larger down payment results in lower monthly mortgage payments and better loan terms (more favorable mortgage interest rates and lower private mortgage insurance costs, ultimately reducing the overall mortgage cost). 3. Access to Assisted Living Residences: Whether making payments or “buying into” an assisted living facility, having cash after the sale of a home dramatically increases your options.
The “Grandparent Wish” To Be with the Grandkids
Never underestimate the power of grandchildren - especially when it comes to lifestyle and financial decisions. Recent data shows that many baby boomers are relocating further away from home than they used to so they can be closer to their grandbabies.
- Vance Cariaga, Journalist, Go Banking Rates
Empty Nesters Dominate Home Sellers Percent of Sellers Based on Number of Children Under 18 Still at Home
5%
8% No Children at Home
10%
1 Child at Home
77%
2 Children at Home 3 or More Children at Home
Source: NAR
Grandparents Moving Farther Away? Percent of Sellers Who Moved at Least 100 Miles by Years of Age
58%
56%
41%
40%
40%
22%
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 or Older Source: NAR
Sellers Want To Be Near Their Family Top 5 Reasons Why Sellers Sold
Want to Move Closer to Friends or Family
21%
Moving Due to Retirement
11%
Neighborhood Became Less Desirable
11%
Home is Too Small
10%
Change in Family Situation (marriage, divorce)
9% Source: NAR
Current Home Price Appreciation
Home prices aren’t falling anymore . . . The surprisingly quick recovery suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year.
- Nicole Friedman, Reporter, WSJ
From January through August, housing demand stabilized, resulting in relatively stable home prices. By August 2023, national resale home prices fully recovered from the declines experienced in the second half of 2022 and now exceed their April 2022 peak.
- John Macke, Senior Research Analyst, John Burns Consulting
Overall, it appears the reduction in supply has outweighed the decrease in demand, thus house prices have started to increase even as sales have fallen.
- Freddie Mac Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month, Case-Shiller & FHFA (SA), CoreLogic (NSA) 1.6
1.9
2
1.6
Case-Shiller
1.3 0.4
0.2 -0.2
-0.3 -0.9
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.6
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0 -0.1
3.3 1.4
2.6
-0.7
0.6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '22
-0.7
0.7
0.7
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.6
-0.5
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.8
-0.3
CoreLogic
1.8
-0.3
0.6
0.7
-0.2
FHFA -0.6
0.5
-0.8
1.2 0.1
2.2
-0.3
0.7
0.4
-0.4
0.8
1.6 0.4
-0.2
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '23
Jul
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month, Zillow, Black Knight, & Freddie Mac (SA) 1.5
1.8
2
2
1.7
Zillow
1.4 0.7
0.1
2.7
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.7
-0.2
1.5
1.5 0.2
0.1
-1.1
1.4
1.4
0.6
Black Knight
2.5
1.3
1.6
0.3
0 -0.3
2.3
0.4
-1
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.5
-0.5
Freddie Mac
1.4 0.8
0.3
0.1
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.3
0.7
-0.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '22 '23
Month-Over-Month Price Change July 2023 by Region National Rate of Appreciation: 0.8%
1.4% 1.4%
1.2% 0.8% 0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3% 0.1%
Pacific
Mountain West North West South East North East South Central Central Central Central
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic Source: FHFA
Case-Shiller Home Price Movement July 2023 Month-Over-Month % Appreciation in Top 20 Cities U.S. National: 0.6%
Metro
% Change
Metro
% Change
Atlanta
0.6%
Miami
0.9%
Boston
0.4%
Minneapolis
0.3%
Charlotte
0.8%
New York
0.8%
Chicago
0.9%
Phoenix
1%
Cleveland
0.3%
Portland
0.1%
Dallas
0.6%
San Diego
1.5%
Denver
0.5%
San Francisco
0.3%
Detroit
0.7%
Seattle
1.7%
Las Vegas
0.7%
Tampa
0.5%
Los Angeles
1.1%
Washington, D.C.
0.9% Source: Case-Shiller
Future Home Prices
High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.
- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic
49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement NSA Month-Over-Month 1973-2022
0.86
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.25
0.25 0.15
0.12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0.10
0.12
Nov
Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement NSA M-O-M 1973-2022 and 2023
49-Year Average 2023
1.5
1.3
1.2 0.86
0.88
0.79
0.9
0.64 0.30 0.10
0.64 0.6
0.2
-0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul Source: Case-Shiller
Nevertheless, home prices are still expected to reaccelerate and reach mid-single-digit growth rate by the end of the year, according to CoreLogic’s latest HPI forecast.
- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic
2023 Year End Home Price Forecasts 6%
5.5% 3.9%
3.3%
3.3%
1.5%
-0.4% Average of All 6
AEI
Zillow
Fannie Mae
HPES
MBA
NAR
Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
Estimated Home Price Performance December to December, as Forecasted in Q3 2023
4.18% 3.79% 3.32%
Pre-Bubble
3.24%
Recovery To Date
2.17%
Bubble
Bust
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027 Source: HPES
THE
DEEP DIVE
Facebook Live Every Monday 11AM ET/8AM PT Keeping Current Matters Facebook Page
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
4
Foreclosures Graph
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
6
Short-Term Rental Survey
https://www.realtor.com/research/airbnb_integration_survey _2023/
7
Airbnb Headline
https://whowhatwhy.org/economy/business/has-airbnboverstayed-its-welcome-some-cities-say-yes/
8
Short-Term Rental Graph
https://skift.com/2023/09/13/airbnbs-nyc-listings-fall-77-bighotelier-sees-tailwind/
10
Rearick Quote
https://money.com/airbnb-bans-affect-housing-market/
12, 13
Transactions by Investor Size Graphs
https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/168933011622320 9472
14
Sellers Deciding To Rent Graph
https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/169650220667623 0331
15
Sichelman Quote
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estatenews/article278570389.html
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
16
Rentals Planning To Sell Graph
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estatenews/article278570389.html
18
Tucker Quote
https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2023-09-12-Buyers-areseeing-more-options-as-housing-market-hits-its-latesummer-slowdown
19
New Listings Graph
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
20, 21
Mortgage Rates of Current Loans Graphs
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/NationalMortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx
22, 23
Rate Relevancy by Age
https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/mortgagerate-fears-are-very-real-but-not-as-much-for-olderhomeowners
25, 26
Percent Change in Home Prices Maps
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-PriceIndex-(HPI).aspx
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
27
Equity Pie Chart
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=mortgage https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/homesales-prices/attom-q2-2023-u-s-home-equity-andunderwater-report/ https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/Blog/Pages/HomeownersEquity-Remains-High.aspx
28
CoreLogic Quote
https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/home-equityincreases-winter-spring-reducing-underwater-properties-q2/
Cariaga Quote
https://www.gobankingrates.com/retirement/planning/boom ers-moving-further-from-home-close-to-grandbabies-is-itgood-financial-move/
31
32, 33, 34 Multi-Gen Graphs
https://store.realtor/2022-nar-profile-of-home-buyers-andsellers-download/
37
Friedman Quote
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-fall-in-homeprices-may-already-be-over-3496d6bb
38
Macke Quote
https://jbrec.com/insights/the-missing-resale-market/
39
Freddi Mac
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20230921overall-economic-growth-has-been-resilient
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
M-O-M Prices Graph 1
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
41
M-O-M Prices Graph 2
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/? https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
42
M-O-M Prices by Region Graph
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
43
Case-Shiller Price Movement Table
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indexannouncements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-indexcontinues-to-trend-upward-in-july/
40
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
45, 48
Hepp Quotes
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-priceinsights-september-2023/
Price Seasonality Graphs
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
49
Price Forecasts Graph
https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ www.mba.org https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/housingfinance-watch-week-37-2023/ www.nar.realtor www.pulsenomics.com
50
HPES Definition
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
51
HPES Graph
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
46, 47
Updates
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
62
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
63-65, 73, 75, 76, Existing Home Sales 83-87
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
66-69
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
70
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
71, 72
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
77-79
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
80
CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
82-89
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
91
Showing Activity
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
93, 94, 96, 97
95
99, 100
Home Sales
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
Average Days on the Market
August 2023
49
46 44 4141
38
36 36
29
26
24 27 36 33
29 27 26
24 2222
21212121 20 18
171717171717 1818 1919 18 19
1717 16 34
3131 29
26
24 22 2020
1818
16
1414
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000
6,300,000
5,800,000
5,300,000
4,800,000
4,300,000
3,800,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region
6.8%
5.8%
3.9%
3.2%
1.0% U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: NAR
New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060
960
860
760
660
560
460
360 Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Source: Census
New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
14%
13% 11%
8%
*
*
0% Under $150K
$150-$199K
$200-299K
8%
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Source: Census
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
1.9
2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3
2.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
2.5
3.2
3.5 3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6
3.2
4.1 4.5
4.5
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
5.1 4.9
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
2023
676 646 567
604
593
587
557
524
436 423
577
575
574
557
528
517 475
443 422
631
494
495
477
455 431
421
419
393
372
374
325 286
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Source: Census
Pending Home Sales 140
130
120
110
100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 90
80
70
60January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
100 = Historically Healthy Level
-18.7%
-18.2%
-17.6% -19.1% -21.4%
Source: NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 1% of sales in August. 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
4% 0% Jan 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region
6.8% 5.8%
3.9% 3.2%
1.0%
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range -0.6%
-7.1%
-13.0%
-13.5%
-12.3%
-23.1%
% change in sales
$0-100K -13.5%
$100-250K -23.1%
$250-500K -13.0%
$500-750K -12.3%
$750K-1M -7.1%
$1M+ -0.6% Source: NAR
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jun 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1% 21.2%
20.5% 18.7%
16.0%
13.1%
10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6%
1.0% Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan 2023 Feb
1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
Mar
Apr
May
0.9% 0.6% June
July
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – August 2023
3.7%
3.4%
Current
Forecast Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, August 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5 3.3 3.3
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.5
3.0 3.8
3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5
Source: NAR
2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5 3.3 3.3
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.5
3.0 3.8
3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30% January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months
15.3%
15.3%
10.2%
5.4% 2.7% 0.0%
Sept
Oct
Aug
-0.8%
-0.8%
1.0% Nov
Dec
Jan-23
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Apr
-6.1%
-13.6%
-14.6%
-14.1%
Source: NAR
New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
9.7
9.7
9.4
8.7
8.5 8.1
8.4
8.1
8.0 7.6 7.2
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
7.5 7.0
June
July
Aug
Source: Census
New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2022 2023
11.4 10.7
10.9
10.4 9.7
9.5 9.2 8.3 7.9 7.6
7.6 6.9
7.6
7.4 7.1
7
6.3 5.9 5.6
Jan
5.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Census
Buyer Demand
Showings Decline in July, Yet Remain Elevated Compared to Pre-Pandemic Levels Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, July 2023 Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time
“As ever, real estate is a local story, and that shows in July’s Showing Index. Shoppers looking to buy this fall can expect a bit more time and bargaining power and should look to their agent to understand the full dynamics in their local market.”
20.7%
21.1%
17.3%
8.0%
5.5%
U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: ShowingTime
Mortgage Rates
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 8.0
7.5
7.31%
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 8.0
7.5
7.31%
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections September 2023
Quarter
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Three
2023 Q4
7.10%
6.30%
6.30%
6.57%
2024 Q1
6.80%
6.10%
6.10%
6.33%
2024 Q2
6.60%
5.80%
6.00%
6.13%
2024 Q3
6.40%
5.50%
6.00%
5.97%
2.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0
7.0
6.0
6.3
4.0
2023 Q4
6.1 5.8 5.5
5.0
Where Are They Going?
3.0
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual - Projected
7.5
7
2023
6.5
6
2024 5.5
5
2019
4.5
2022 4
2018
2020
3.5
2021 3
2.5 Rate
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
6.8
6.3
6.1
5.8
5.5
5.4
Source: MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) August 2023 190 180
170 160 150 140 130
120 110 100 90 Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: MBA
Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900
Housing Bubble: 868.7
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
96.6 100
0 June 2004
June 2006
June 2008
June 2010
June 2012
June 2014
June 2016
June 2018
June 2020
June 2022 August 2023
Source: MBA