KCM January 24

January 2024

Most agents know what’s happening.

Good agents understand what’s happening.

Great agents can explain what’s happening.

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2024 KCM Forecast

The Year of “Fives”

▪ ‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May ▪ 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales ▪ 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate

The Year of “Fives”

▪ ‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May ▪ 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales ▪ 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate

Mortgage Rates

Heading into the New Year, Mortgage Rates Remain on a Downward Trend September 2023–Today

9/7/2023

9/28/2023

10/19/2023

11/9/2023

11/30/2023

6.61

6.67

6.95

7.03

7.22

7.29

7.44

7.5

7.76

7.79

7.63

7.57

7.49

7.31

7.19

7.18

7.12

U.S. Weekly Averages as of 12/28/2023

12/21/2023

Source: Freddie Mac

It also appears that mortgage rates are now falling again. They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.

- Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research

A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.

- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR

The Year of “Fives”

▪ ‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May ▪ 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales ▪ 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate

78.7% of Mortgage Rates Less Than 5% Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination

36.8%

22.6% 19.3% 9.8%

≤ 3%

3.01-4%

4.01-5%

5.01-6%

11.5%

> 6% Source: FHFA

“Lock-In Rates” Limit New Inventory Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination >6% 5.01-6% Yes Probably Yes

<3% 4.01-5%

Not Selling

Must Think Before Selling

3.01-4% Probably Not Selling

Source: FHFA

We might be at peak “lock-in effect”. Some move-up or lifestyle sellers might be coming to terms with the fact 3% and 4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon. . . . If the “lock-in effect” eases up further in 2024 . . . it could help boost existing home sales from the very low levels experienced at the end of 2023.

- Lance Lambert, Founder, ResiClub

Homeowners who are selling aren’t influenced by rates, with 90.5% of successful November sellers stating they were going to sell regardless of what rates were.

- Erica Plemmons, Housing Analyst, Bright MLS

Roughly half (50.6%) of November buyers were going to buy regardless of interest rates and another quarter (23.9%) purchased with cash.

Cash will continue to be king even as rates ease next year. And no matter the direction of rates, households buying out of necessity will continue to find a way to purchase.

- Erica Plemmons, Housing Analyst, Bright MLS

Top 3 Reasons Buyers Paused Decision Reasons Given for Pausing Their Purchase (Multiple Could Be Chosen)

72.1%

34.4% 17.4%

Mortgage Rates

Inventory

Affordability/Home Prices Source: Bright MLS

We now forecast three consecutive 25bp cuts in March, May, and June to reset the policy rate from a level that Powell has recently taken to describing as “well into restrictive territory” rather than just “restrictive”.

- Goldman Sachs, December FOMC Recap

For over 50 Years, the 30-Year Mortgage Rate Has Moved in Unison with the 10-year Treasury Yield 18

10-Year Treasury Yield 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

16 14

Average Spread: 1.72

12 10 8 6

Current Spread

4

2.78

2 0

1972

1980

1990

2000

2010

2023 Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends

New Construction

The market currently requires a higher level of new construction inventory due to a persistent lack of resale inventory. Newly built homes available for sale accounted for 31% of total homes available for sale in November, compared to an approximate 12% historical average.

- National Association of Home Builders

Home Prices

49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973–2022 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0.86

0.88 0.79

0.64

0.64

0.44

0.25

0.25 0.15

0.12

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

0.10

0.12

Nov

Dec

Source: Case-Shiller

49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973–2022 and 2023 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

49-Year Average 2023

1.5 1.3 1.2

0.86

0.9

0.88 0.79

0.64

0.64 0.6 0.44 0.4

0.30

0.25

0.2

0.3 0.15

0.10

0.2

-0.5

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Source: Case-Shiller

2024 Home Price Forecasts Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 11/30/2023

4.1 2.8

2.7

2.2

1.5

1.9 0.7 -0.2

-1.7 Average of All 8

MBA

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac

HPES

Goldman Sachs

NAR

Zillow

Realtor.com

Home Price Expectation Survey

Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls over 100 housing experts across the industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years.

Source: HPES

Estimated Home Price Performance December to December, as Forecast in Q4 2023

5.92%

4.06%

3.67% Pre-Bubble

Recovery To Date

Bubble

2.35%

4.15%

2.70% Bust

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028 Source: HPES

$72,405

Potential growth in household wealth over the next 5 years based solely on increased home equity if you purchase a $400K home in January 2024

$472,405 $453,581 $435,884 $400,000

$409,400

Pre-Bubble

$420,454

Recovery To Date

Bubble

Bust Based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey 2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029 Source: HPES

The Year of “Fives”

▪ ‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May ▪ 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales ▪ 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate

Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month

Case-Shiller 0.9

0.7 0.4

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.2

-0.2

FHFA 0.8 0.5

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.6 0.3

0.1

Jan '23

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Freddie Mac: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 0.8 0.7

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.6 0.5

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Jan '23

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Source: Freddie Mac

Home price gains in the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index have increased by [about] 7% since the beginning of the year and are 1% higher than at the peak in 2022, recovering all losses recorded in the second half of 2022.

- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic

Percent of Annual Home Appreciation 1980–2022, Seasonally Adjusted, Rounded To Nearest Full Number 20%

15%

10%

4.92% 42-Year Average

5%

0%

Each December as compared to previous December -5%

-10%

-15%

1980

1990

2000

2010

2022 Source: Freddie Mac

With mortgage rates dropping, demand for homes in early 2024 is likely to be strong and will again put pressure on prices, similar to trends observed in early 2023 . . .

Most markets will continue to reach new home price highs over the course of 2024.

- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic

▪ Stay Focused Realizing this is an Election Year

90-Day Work Plan

▪ Become the Expert on Everything Real Estate ▪ Broadcast the Mortgage Rate ▪ Expireds! FSBOs! Expireds!

▪ Offer the P.E.A.R. to Everyone ▪ Prospect! Prospect! Prospect!

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

9

Mortgage Rate Trend Graph

https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/28181/pdf

10

Dean Baker Quote

https://cepr.net/contrary-to-what-the-washington-post-tellsyou-homeownership-rates-for-young-people-are-above-thepre-pandemic-level/

11

Lawrence Yun Quote

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/01/housing -market-projection-real-estate-2024/72046015007/

13, 14

Mortgage Rate Spread Graph

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/NationalMortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx

Lance Lambert Quote

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/lockin-effect-told-2maps?utm_source=www.resiclubanalytics.com&utm_mediu m=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-lock-in-effect-as-told-by2maps&jwt_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ 9.eyJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiZTFhYmVkNWYtMjMwOC00 ZDlhLWEzY2YtMmNiNmJkNzg0YTc0IiwiZXhwIjoxNzA0MjI5 Njg4LCJpc3MiOiJodHRwczovL2FwcC5iZWVoaWl2LmNvb SIsImlhdCI6MTcwNDA1Njg4OH0.kgtTWNpT6CQaG3sypDr 0uRJAnyMH9ozLhjjxYVWTThI

15

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

16, 17, 18

Erica Plemmons Quotes and Graph

https://brightmls.com/article/market-survey-winds-ofchange-expected-for-2024

19

Goldman Sachs Quote

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2 023/12/14/05d5d1d1-8b22-41af-917ecd5862923c9e.html?chl=em&plt=briefings&cid=1215&plc=b ody

20

50 Year Mortgage Rate Graph

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bondrate-yield-chart

22

NAHB Quote

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/pressreleases/2023/12/new-home-sales-down-in-november-butshould-improve-moving-forward

24, 25

49-Year Average Monthly Price Graphs

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

26

Home Price Forecasts Graph

https://www.zillow.com/research/2024-housing-predictions33447/ https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housingforecast/ https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1730642488346472 787 https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-nov2023.pdf?sfvrsn=acef26ff_1 https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/ https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49661/display https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20231220us-economy-expanded-in-2023

27

HPES Slide

https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/home-price-expectations-survey-hpes

28, 29

Home Price Graphs

https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

31

Home Values Percent Change Graph

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/

32

Freddie Mac Prices Graph

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex

33, 35

Selma Hepp Quotes

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/26/business/us-home-pricesrecord-high-october/index.html

34

Home Appreciation Graph

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex

Updates

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

45

Confidence Index

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index

46-48, 55, 57, 59, Existing Home Sales 65-68

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

49-51

New Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

52

Total Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

53-54

Pending Home Sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales

59-61

Case Shiller

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

62

CoreLogic Price Forecast

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/

Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

64-70

Inventory

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

72

Showing Activity

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/

Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary

Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

Mortgage Credit Availability

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index

74, 75, 77, 78

76

80, 81

Home Sales

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Average Days on the Market

November 2023

49

46 44 4141

38

36 36

29

26

24 27 36 33

29 27 26

24 2222

21212121 20 18

171717171717 1818 1919 18 19

1717 16 34

3131 29

26

24 25

22 23

2020

21

1818

16

1414

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000

6,300,000

5,800,000

5,300,000

4,800,000

4,300,000

3,800,000

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Jan 2023

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

-4.3%

-7.3% -8.7%

-8.6%

-13.0%

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021

2022

January

February

2023

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December Source: NAR

New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060

960

860

760

660

560

460

360 jun-14

Jan15

Jan16

Jan17

Jan18

Jan19

Jan20

Jan21

Jan22

Jan23

Source: Census

New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent

9%

10%

11%

6%

*

*

0% Under $150K

$150-$199K

3% $200-299K

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

Over $750K Source: Census

Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9

1.9

2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.7

2.4

2.8 2.9

3.2

3.1 2.9

2.8 2.7

2.5

3.2

3.5 3.5

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6

3.2

4.1 4.5

4.5

4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0

5.1 4.9

New Homes Selling Fast

Median Months from Completion to Sold

Source: Census

Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021

2022

2023

676 646 567

604

593

587

557

524

436 423

577

575

574

557

528

517 475

443 422

631

491

495

432

421

477 453 403

397

419 383

325

372 341

374

286

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December Source: Census

Pending Home Sales 140

130

120

110

100

100 = Historically Healthy Level 90

80

70

60January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

January 2023

Source: NAR

Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

-2.2%

100 = Historically Healthy Level -4.9%

-5.2% -6.4%

-6.5%

Source: NAR

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented 1% of sales in November.

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

4% 0% Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Jan 2023

Source: NAR

Home Prices

Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region

5.3% 4.8%

4.9%

4.0% 3.4%

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West Source: NAR

% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range

13.4%

5.7%

-2.0% -5.1%

-5.6%

-15.3%

% change in sales

$0-100K -5.1%

$100-250K -15.3%

$250-500K -5.6%

$500-750K -2.0%

$750K-1M 5.7%

$1M+ 13.4% Source: NAR

Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Jun Jan 2012 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Jan 2023

Source: S&P Case-Shiller

Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source: S&P Case-Shiller

Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1%21.2% 20.5% 18.7%

16.0%

13.1%

10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6%

1.0% Mar

Apr

May June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

DecJan 2023Feb

1.6% 1.7% 1.5%

Mar

Apr

0.9% 0.6%

May June

July

0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Aug

Sept

Oct

Source: S&P Case-Shiller

Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – October 2023

4.7%

2.9%

Current

Forecast Source: CoreLogic

Housing Inventory

Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, November 2023

Source: Realtor.com

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5

8.5

7.5

6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

2.5

1.5January 2011

January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

January 2023

Source: NAR

2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2

2.6 2.6

2.6

2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.5 3.6 3.5

3.3 3.3 3.4

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3

2.9 3.0 3.1

2.9 2.9

2.9

3.1 3.0

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.0

4.0 4.0 3.9

4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2

4.6

4.5

1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1

2.5

3.0 3.8

3.8

4.0

3.0 3.1 3.1

3.5 3.6

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Since 2019

6.0

5.5

5.0

1.5 Source: NAR

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30% January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

January 2023

Source: NAR

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months

15.3%

15.3%

10.2%

5.4% 1.0% May

Dec

Jan-23

Feb

Mar

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

0.9% Nov

Apr

-5.7%

-6.1% -8.1%

-13.6%

-14.6%

-14.1%

Source: NAR

New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months

9.7

9.4

9.2 8.5 8.1

8.4

8.1

7.9

7.6 7.2

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 23

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

7.5

7.4

7.1

June

July

7.9

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Source: Census

New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted

2022 2023

11.4 11.3 10.9

10.7 10.4

9.7

9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 7.9

7.9 7.6

7.6 6.9

7.6

7.5 7.2

7

6.3 5.9 5.6

Jan

5.5

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Source: Census

Buyer Demand

Home Showings Declined Compared to August Numbers, but Still Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, September 2023

Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time “Buyers and sellers remain active in every economic environment, including when mortgage rates are high. . . . Buyers determined to find a home they love will continue visiting homes with their agents, and as we mentioned previously, some sellers are reducing prices, which presents an opportunity for those buyers.”

9.1%

9.7%

5.5% 3.3% 0.7% U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West Source: ShowingTime

Mortgage Rates

2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023 10/5/2023 11/02/2023 11/30/2023 12/28/2023

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 6.61%

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.61% 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0

5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rate Projections January 2023

Quarter

Fannie Mae

MBA

NAR

Average of All Three

2023 Q4

7.40%

7.40%

7.80%

7.53%

2024 Q1

7.00%

7.00%

7.50%

7.17%

2024 Q2

6.80%

6.60%

6.90%

6.77%

2024 Q3

6.60%

6.30%

6.50%

6.47%

2.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7 10/5 11/9 12/7

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0

7.0

7.5 7.1 6.6

6.0

6.3

5.0

4.0

Where Are They Going?

3.0

January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates

2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3

Source: Freddie Mac, MBA

Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate

- Actual - Projected

7.5

2023

7

6.5

6

2024 5.5

5

2019

4.5

2022 4

2018

2020

3.5

2021 3

2.5 Rate

2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.4

4

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.9

5.3

5.7

6.6

6.4

6.5

7.0

7.4

7

6.6

6.3

6.1

Source: MBA

Mortgage Credit Availability

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) November 2023

190 180

170 160 150 140 130

120 110 100 90 Apr 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Jan 2023 Source: MBA

Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900

Housing Bubble: 868.7

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

96.5 100

0 June 2004

June 2006

June 2008

June 2010

June 2012

June 2014

June 2016

June 2018

June 2020

June 2022

November 2023

Source: MBA