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Exhibit 9: 2022 Dairy Margin Coverage Feed Cost vs. 5-Year Average
Sources: United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov
United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, http://www.ams.usda.gov
Key Factors Influencing the Industry
The dairy industry within the Horizon Farm Credit footprint is uniquely positioned to prosper for the foreseeable future. Markets are close in proximity to large population centers. Most of the region has been slow to normalize to the national trend of consolidation and expansion. Part of this is related to capital investment costs, infrastructure, and geography. Recent evaluation of the Horizon Farm Credit Dairy Success and Profitability Review report indicates there is a growing percentage of dairy farms that are seeking diversified income, and those farms are rising to the top of the list when it comes to profitability (when ranked by net margin). Part of the diversification is a perceived limitation on growing production due to base or over-production penalties. Several projects for expanded processing capacity in the Northeast are encouraging for a region that hasn’t seen significant change in capacity for many years. Regional investment into expanded processing capacity and adjusting to ever-changing consumer demands will strengthen the demand for milk and milk components.
There are some challenges with lack of expansion. Milk transportation costs have increased, and though passed onto the producer in some capacity, remains a challenge. Farms with small volumes of milk are experiencing difficulty maintaining a market. Advancements in milk cooling and storage have the potential to slightly reduce the number of pickups needed but comes at a high capital investment. Expansion of processing capacity could also alleviate some of this transportation burden but will take time to develop and materialize.
Additionally, land values and environmental regulations remain a unique challenge. It is very difficult to acquire new land, transfer land to the next generation, or justify the value of rent on current land for agricultural practices. This drives the second challenge of feed cost, which historically is a story of the have and the have not. Those with enough land base to support their herd size (including heifers) tend to have a greater opportunity to control feed costs and weather feed market fluctuations. Finally, sections of our region have continued pressure of development of land due to urbanization and industrialization. A long-term challenge, though not unique to our territory, is how to engage the next generation in wanting to dairy, especially when it may not be a child or relative looking to continue the operation.