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Hofstra University Model United Nations Conference

United Nations Security Council Future Crisis Global Water Crisis

Sarah Gerwens Crisis Committee Director

1 Letter from the Crisis Director

Dear delegates, Welcome to the 2016 Hofstra Model United Nations conference (HUMUNC) and the Future Crisis Committee. My name is Sarah Gerwens and I am the crisis director (CD). I will be responding to all your written communication during the conference and will make sure that your experience is educating, interesting and also at least a little entertaining. I am a sophomore and international student at Hofstra University. I was born and raised in Dortmund, Germany. My last two years of high school, however, I spent in an international boarding school in Canada. Being able to study and live abroad not only introduced me to many different cultures, but also increased my passion for and interest in international politics. Now I am majoring in Psychology and Global Studies and over the summer I interned in the office of a German congressman. During the last HUMUNC I helped the CD of historical crisis and came to love the unique and interesting structure of the crisis committees. In my free time I love to explore New York, read, go for a run and spend time with my friends. Between classes, being a global mentor for the new international students and working in the philosophy and religion department, however, free time is a rare phenomenon for me. A shortage of fresh water supply and growing acidification of farmland are serious threats the international community is already facing today. The United States Drought Monitor indicates that even Long Island is currently undergoing a moderate drought.1 Apart from localized water shortages, however, a global water crisis deals with multinational conflicts concerning shared aquifers and rivers and also has to do with the global issues of climate change and pollution. No country alone can solve these problems, but if they remain unaddressed, violent conflict can and will arise. Former United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Boutros Ghali already predicted in 1989 that future wars in the Middle East “will be fought over water, not politics”.2 This prognosis could be applied to all arid regions of this world – and with globally rising temperatures3, their number is unlikely to go down. I am looking forward to meeting you all and encourage you to do some further research to be best prepared for a weekend full of heated debates, interesting discussions and exciting and fun new challenges. Sincerely, Sarah Gerwens Sgerwens1@hofstra.pride.edu

2 Introduction to the Security Council

This emergency meeting of the Security Council (SC) has been called to address the global water crisis. A shortage of non-polluted fresh water is destabilizing especially Northern Africa and the Middle East. Since its fist session on January 17th 19464 the Security Council has had the preservation and fortification of international peace and security as its paramount goal â€“ and to preserve global peace the Council needs to address this water crisis swiftly and thoroughly. The committee is comprised of the 5 permanent members holding veto power â€“ China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States, and the ten non-permanent members elected by the General Assembly.56 The SC is the only U.N. organ that has the power to issue decisions that all member states have to comply with. These can include economic sanctions or even the use of force in order to defend and maintain global peace. I hope that you use this power wisely to secure the freshwater supply of millions and security and peace within the international community.

Water scarcity and conflicts Water conflicts have taken many shapes in the past, whether it is civil unrest due to a shortened supply in a certain area or disagreement over shared water resources between countries. To illustrate water conflicts, below I will outline three events where fresh water and/or the access to it were integral to a conflict. One should especially consider their political and social cost, but also the internal and external security threats they stand for.

Privatization of Water in Bolivia In September 1999, the Bolivian government leased the water system of the town Cochabamba – including previously “off grid” farmland - to Aguas del Tunari, “a multinational consortium of private investors, including a subsidiary of the [USAmerican] Bechtel Corporation”7. This privatization was part of the structural adjustment program administered to the highly indebted Bolivia by the IMF and the World Bank.8 The consortium held 40-year concession rights for the region of Cochabamba and it promised to modernize and improve the highly flawed water system. In October of the same year, the Bolivian government allowed for the general privatization of drinking water and sewage systems. People living in the region of Cochabamba from that point on had to pay the full, unsubsidized cost for their water, which “doubled and tripled their water bills”.9 Protests erupted; civilians went on strike and erected roadblocks. Additionally fueled by a general disappointment with the government, the unrest spread throughout the country and violent protests and clashes with the police resulted in 6 deaths and the president declaring a state of siege.10 After this, prices for water were lowered, the contract between Aguas del Tunari and Bolivia was terminated, and the water system was returned to public ownership. 11 In 2007, after a civil strike, the Bolivian government vowed to end a similar concession contract pertaining to the cities of La Paz and El Alto with a subsidiary of the French transnational company Suez.12 However, up until now Bolivia struggles with increasing water scarcity and a flawed and incomplete water system, which often does not guarantee a continuous supply of safe water to all regions.13 Insufficient water supply and waste disposal systems, however, can contribute to a rise in water-borne illnesses, which

account for 1.5 million deaths yearly.14 This case highlights that water conflicts can have serious social and political implications. They intensify already existing criticism of the government and can unite otherwise differing groups: in this case farmers, regular residents of the city and labor unions came together. One of the leaders of the first uprising, Evo Morales, eventually even became President and part of a new group of politicians replacing the former more traditional and conservative government.15

Dams in the Euphrates-Tigris River System The Euphrates and Tigris river valley was once the area of the Fertile Crescent.16 Now, however, the precious water resources are highly contested and controlled with dams. Apart from causing interregional conflict, these also represent a potential security threat. The Euphrates-Tigris river system originates in Turkey and then goes through parts of Syria, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq before the rivers discharge into the Persian Gulf.17 Especially in these arid regions, these rivers are a vital source of water for people and agriculture. Like with all rivers, however, the countries upstream hold great power over their flow and cleanliness. Turkey, Syria and Iraq, which all struggle with several other domestic and intrastate conflicts, dealt with several issues concerning dams and reduced water flow in the past mainly concerning the Euphrates.18 For example, we could look at 1990, when “Iraq and Syria thought Turkey had deliberately cut off their water supplies, as they simultaneously faced a serious decrease in water flow”19. A potential violent conflict was averted, but one could speculate this was partly because of

IraqÂ´s invasion of Kuwait and the arising of more pressing issues.20 As a country with 50% of its land used for agriculture and a growing population21, Turkey has an increasing need for water. In 1975 it launched the Southeast Anatolia Project (Turkish acronym: GAP) to create electricity and improve irrigation the region. GAP included the construction of 22 dams.22 One of these is the Ataturk dam, the fifth larges dam in the world, which lies in an area with an increased risk of earthquakes.23 As of 2016, with the terror organization ISIS occupying parts of Iraq and Syria and the ongoing Syrian civil war, the region has been further destabilized. Additionally, Turkish forces are bombing parts of Iraqi territory targeting the Kurdish rebel group PKK, which could also increase tensions.24 In this context, dams are very important for the military and security struggle. As seen in June 2015 when ISIS seized and shut the Ramadi dam, cutting off water supply to subsequent areas,25 dams are a potential liability and can be used to threaten civilian populations and infrastructure. Even in the Second World War, British forces successfully targeted dams in the Ruhr area, the flooding destroying industry, infrastructure and resulting in the temporary loss of power and water for the region.26 Furthermore, while dams can produce significant amounts of energy and guarantee power over local water resources, they can also destroy vital ecosystems and cultural and archeological sites and force parts of the population to resettle. Dams are also very costly. The construction of the Ataturk Dam alone cost the Turkish government $1.25 billion,27 which does not include maintenance cost and potentially necessary improvements. Thus, building dams is always connected with domestic as well as interstate political risks.

Water scarcity and conflict in Syria Drought and water scarcity have also been linked to the development of conflict. When the supply of vital resources is low, already opposed groups can become bitter competitors and an overall climate of instability and insecurity contributes to the likelihood of unrest. The current Syrian civil war can be related to a lack of fresh and safe water due to a regional drought.28 This led to domestic and economical instability, further fueled by a “long history of conflicts over water in these regions”.29 Especially agriculture and poor, rural farmers suffered form these conditions. By 2009, the dry conditions had killed “about 80 percent of cattle.”30 This atmosphere of insecurity and competition over vital resources caused people to move to urban areas and fueled general unrest and discontent. Researchers, furthermore, have speculated that the drought was not simply a result of natural climate fluctuations, but was significantly worsened by manmade climate change.31 Globally, climate change is predicted to dry out arid regions even more and speed up the process of desertification, rendering wide areas of precious farmland fruit- and useless.32 Even localized crises like the Syrian civil war, however, have significant implications for the international community. Around 430,000 Syrians have applied for asylum in European countries, with the numbers quickly increasing over the last months.33 Most refugees, however, flee to the neighboring countries. Turkey alone is estimated to harbor 1.7 million Syrian refugees as of December 2015.34 This puts great pressure on the countries´ resources. Especially Turkey, although water-rich, is expected to struggle with a lack of fresh water in the near future.35 This could cause a new wave of refugees trying to reach Europe. While migration represents an opportunity for new

development, it can also come at a significant social and economic cost. A significant loss of often working-age population due to emigration can contribute to a countryâ€™s instability and loss of economic potential. Instead, a criminal network of smugglers could gain power. The host countries, however, also face several issues. The initial support, housing, and education of the migrants are costly. Especially refugees often come with very few if any possessions, no financial security, sufficient language skills or high level education. For example, a German city spends an average of 1000â‚Ź a month to cover the basic necessities for a refugee.36 This can not only affect the economy negatively, but also lead to a rise of nationalistic and far-right political agendas, as seen in Germany. This also a poses a potential threat to national and international security, because especially impoverished migrants with limited economic options are vulnerable targets for recruiting terrorist organizations. Even if this threat is only perceived and without real evidence, it can lead to more nationalist policies and a rise of xenophobia.37 All in all, apart from instability and conflict within a specific country, severe localized water shortages affect the international community as a whole, especially on an economic and a social level.

8 Scenario In 2015 “[a]ccording to the World Health Organization, an estimated 1.7 billion

people still lack[ed] access to clean water. 2.3 billion people suffer[ed] from water-borne diseases each year.”38 It is now 2040 and these numbers have tripled. Our modern lives are water intensive, especially the high-maintenance lifestyle of the Western nations. Goods and food production require large amounts of the scarce resource and so does the growing population. While measures such as desalination plants converting salt water into fresh water can alleviate the situation in the short term, they are very expensive and contribute significantly to climate change, since they are energy intensive.39 The war-torn Middle East has been hit the hardest. Hafez al-Assad, Bashir alAssad’s son,40 has been named president after his father`s death in 2017. With the help of Russia and the United States of America, ISIS and the rest of the Syrian rebels have been defeated. But now al-Assad is fighting a new and potentially more dangerous problem: severe water scarcity in his country and the region. A seven-year long drought has stricken the area and the EU as well as the US have been sending increased food aid to Syria, Iraq, and Palestine since agriculture has become nearly impossible. Many impoverished farmers have moved to the cities and contribute to a growing number of unrests in urban areas. Al-Assad’s government has repeatedly shut down protests with violence, but his neighboring countries have criticized his actions. The EU has held several crisis summits to address the water scarcity in the region and to prevent another flow of refugees like the one in 2015. The WHO has also recorded rising numbers of fatal water-borne diseases in the region and many humanitarian organizations have called for the international community to support them in their efforts to provide health care and

safe water. Furthermore, especially US security experts warn that these dire and desperate circumstances can breed new terrorist groups, spark more widespread and violent civil unrest, and will potentially affect the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Palestinian criticism of the Israeli use of the West Bank aquifer has become more vocal and protests have erupted demanding to increase the current 20% that Palestinians can withdraw from the aquifer compared to the 80% Israel uses.41 Protesters have also openly asked for more aid with water development projects and water-saving agricultural techniques. Syria as well as other Middle Eastern sources have supported the Palestinian efforts. The Israeli government has not yet officially responded, other than condemning a recent violent confrontation between protesters and police, hospitalizing two Palestinians. Al-Assad, however, has been trying to publicly address the water crisis in order to gain popular support and prevent massive uprisings, but also to appease many highranking officials that have been rumored to strongly oppose his â€œweakâ€? style of governance. Al-Assad has repeatedly accused Turkey of worsening the situation by reducing water flow in the Euphrates and withholding as well as diverting large amounts of freshwater for its own agricultural and commercial needs. Turkey has denied these claims, but has also emphasized that it is devoted to fulfilling domestic water needs first and foremost. Advisors to al-Assad have been quoted that he is considering military action if the water flow does not increase and has even been cited threatening to bomb Turkish dams. It is now on you, esteemed world leaders, to address this multifaceted problem. Please consider that this is not only a security crisis with potential military consequences,

but also a humanitarian tragedy with thousands dying of water-borne diseases and lack of food and safe water every day.

Security Council Composition

Peoples Republic of China After the end of the strict autocratic and communist rule of Mao Zedong in 1978, the country opened up to the capitalist world economy and China became a strong global power. With around 1.4 billion people, it has the biggest population in the world.42 The demand for freshwater is correspondingly great, but the country is naturally arid and struggles with decreasing water tables and highly polluted freshwater sources.43 Furthermore, local and partially violent disputes over the use of the Zhang River have been occurring for many years.44 The United States of America (USA) Founded in 1776, the USA is a militarily as well as economically strong country. While struggling with massive droughts, especially in California, and desertification, its territory is water-rich overall.45 To address the regional shortages of freshwater, restrictions have been implemented and currently 17 desalination plants along the west coast are being planned. 46 Russian Federation Russia took over the USSRÂ´s seat in the SC after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Under the leadership of President Putin in the first part of the 21st century, Russia tried to further geopolitical interests by annexing the Ukrainian peninsula Crimea,

militarily intervening in Syria in favor of Assad´s regime, and tighten domestic control.47 Russia has extensive freshwater resources, but these are unequally distributed and the water system in general is mismanaged, leading to often subpar water quality.48 French Republic As a member of the EU and the EURO group, France is a strong European power with a robust economy. The water supply is partly privatized, but access to safe and clean freshwater is nearly universally guaranteed.49 Regionally, water restrictions are implemented and the country has experienced several droughts, for example in 2011, when the ecological minister said France was in a “state of crisis”.50 The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) The UK is member of NATO and the EU, however not the EURO group. It has a large economy, however, the UK suffered significantly in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and has continued to struggle.51 While in a moderate climate52, the UK has encountered several droughts and low rainfall and dry winters.53 Kingdom of Spain A former colonial power, Spain has been struggling with the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 and the resulting EURO debt crisis, but has recently experienced tentative economic growth.54 Spain is member of the EU as well as the EURO group and NATO. Sixty percent of Spanish water services are privatized and a large part of the country has good access to drinking water.55 However, the country also has to deal with severe droughts. In 2008, Barcelona had to import water from France to meet the population´s demand for freshwater.56

Republic of Angola After the end of the “27-year civil war in 2002”, Angola has been focusing on rebuilding itself. Its economy is mainly made up of the extraction and export of oil, but the country still struggles with corruption and widespread poverty.57 Safe and accessible drinking water as well as working sanitation systems are not widely available and the water network is one of the least developed in the continent.58 Republic of Chad Chad held its first semi-democratic presidential elections in 1996, after colonization from France, years of civil war and invasions by Libya. Chad´s population is young and 46.7% of it live under the poverty line, most people working in agriculture.59 In the arid country, water-borne diseases are widespread and sanitation and freshwater supply are severely underdeveloped especially in rural and poor areas.60 Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Jordan is a constitutional monarchy and is controlled by King Abdallah. In 1967, it lost the West Bank to Israel and nearly twenty years later officially renounced its claims to the territory.61 Jordan suffers from a lack of resources, including water, and its economy is only growing slowly, despite efforts to open itself up for the global economy and foreign investments.62 The Syrian civil war has heavily affected Jordan, since growing numbers of refugees keep pouring into the country63 and “Jordan [already] has one of the lowest levels of water resource availability, per capita, in the world.”64 Republic of Lithuania Lithuania officially became independent from the USSR after its collapse in 1991 and has since joined the NATO, the EU and the EURO group. Although heavily hit by the 2008

financial crisis, the country recovered quickly and thoroughly.65 Some rural areas still suffer form an unimproved water system66, but overall Lithuania has sufficient water resources.67 Malaysia A former British colony, Malaysia is now a constitutional monarchy with a growing economy.68 The region has several freshwater resources and copious rainfall.69 Furthermore, the country had to face several devastating floods, for example in 196 and 198370 and Singapore draws “up to 250 million gallons of water a day, or up to about 60 per cent of its water needs, from the Johor River in Malaysia.”71. New Zealand New Zealand became independent of the British colonizers in 1909. Its economy is mainly service based and has been experiencing moderate growth.72 Drinking water conditions for the whole country are considered improved 73and clean freshwater is widely available.74 Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela After the election of Nicolás Maduro as President in 2013, the country has become more authoritarian and the economy has deteriorated significantly. “Rampant violent crime […] and widespread shortages of basic consumer goods, medicine, and medical supplies”75 are present. Furthermore, droughts and bad water-related infrastructure add to drinking water shortages.76 Venezuela shares the Orinoco basin with Colombia, which could be a source of conflict if the need for freshwater and hydropower increase.77 Republic of Chile Chile gained independence from Spain in 1818. From 1973 to 1990 it was violently ruled

by the right-wing dictator Pinochet. Now, Chile is a “stable, democratic nation”78 Most of Chile´s freshwater is derived from melt of the Andean glaciers, however, due to climate change, the glaciers are slowly disappearing.79 Additionally, all of Chile´s water system is privatized and after severe water shortages in 2013 citizens organized a rally and delivered a letter to the sitting president, criticizing the current system.80 Nigeria Nigeria is Africa´s most populous country81 and a former British colony. The democracy struggles with major corruption issues and terrorism, especially at the hands of the Islamist group “Boko Haram”82 Although the country has a strong economy based on the extraction and export of oil, large parts of the population are poor83 and don’t have access to clean water and good sanitation.84

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