Hofstra University Model United Nations Conference 2019 Economic and Financial Affairs Committee (ECOFIN)
Joseph Tyrie and Justin Burgess Chairs
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Dear Delegates, Welcome to the Economic and Financial Affairs Committee (ECOFIN) of Hofstra University’s Model United Nations Conference 2019! My name is Joseph Tyrie and I am eager to be working with you all and anticipate an enjoyable and intellectually stimulating weekend. I have the privilege of serving as your co-chair for this conference, along with my friend and colleague Justin Burgess. I am a sophomore here at Hofstra majoring in Business Economics, and am from Elizabeth, New Jersey. I have been in Model United Nations (MUN) for the past year while in college; I served as a dais for the ECOFIN Committee at last year’s HUMUNC and attended the University of Pennsylvania’s MUN Conference last November. This has all led up to what is now the highlight of my MUN career, and what I hope will end up being yours, as well, in more ways than one. The topics we will be analyzing in this committee are the oil-based economies of the world that are being affected by market changes and sanctions, and the idea of foreign aid to developing countries. The concept of trade liberation in oil was first brought to the United Nations (UN) in the late 1990s, and that idea continues to be of special importance to those oilexporting countries. However, new forms of energy, advancing technology, and shifting tastes within the populations and administrations of first-world oil-importing countries are throwing exporters for a loop. Politically motivated sanctions by individual countries such as the United States and by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are also not helping any matters. Many of these countries have their eggs in this one basket, and certain countries have even tied the bread and butter of their economies to a form of petrol cryptocurrency. What does this mean for the immediate and long-term future of oil-dependent countries, and how will these countries, as well as the first world, respond? Can the economies of oil-dependent countries and the growing alternative energy and environmental protection movements possibly intertwine, or even thrive? The second topic of our committee ties in relatively well with the first. The freefall of oildriven economies begs the question of how we should approach offering aid to all developing countries. It’s no secret that technological innovation is a determinant of economic growth and being behind this curve can stagnate progress in both national metrics and individual quality of life. As technological progress speeds up and corporations are starting to utilize and manipulate whole nations’ industries in the manufacturing of such technology, what can be made of the pecking order that is developing, and how can developing countries benefit? How does the possible need for oil-based economies to start over affect this question, and the answer to it? Justin and I look forward to sharing this experience with you as chair of the ECOFIN Committee as we answer these macroeconomic policy questions and hope you all enjoy it as much as I will. Sincerely, Joseph Tyrie
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Dear Delegates, Welcome to Hofstra University’s 2019 Model United Nations Conference! My name is Justin Burgess and I am one of the two chairs for the Economic and Financial Affairs Committee (ECOFIN). Joseph and I are looking forward to working with all of you during this incredibly invigorating weekend. Just a bit about myself – I am a junior at Hofstra University. I am a double major in Criminology and Sociology and a triple minor in Legal Business Studies, Political Science, and Civic Engagement. I reign from Ronkonkoma, New York and attended Connetquot HS in which I had the opportunity to visit Hofstra’s MUN Conference as a high school senior, over three years ago. I have been a part of Hofstra’s MUN for the past year and had the opportunity to play a role in UPenn’s Model U.N. Conference this past fall. The experiences I have grown familiar with have given me the knowledge to make an impact after college with whatever my career has in store and the memories I have made will forever impact my life. I hope this conference can, in many ways, do the same for all of you. The two topics that will be discussed and debate in our committee are connected to the oil-based economies found around the world which are affected by the changing market and sanctions, and foreign aid being distributed to developing countries. The issue of trade liberation in oil-based economies found its first development during the 1990s which has become a significant notion to oil-exporting countries. There are some impeding factors to the notion of trade liberation such as, new emerging forms of energy, evolving technology, and ever-changing administrations of first world oil-importing nations. To make matters worse, sanctions are politically motivated by countries like the United States and by members of the UN Security Council. This therefore raises alarming questions: what does this mean for the short term and long-term futures of nations that are dependent on oil, how will developed countries respond to the occurrence of any changes, and can the countries with oil-based economies work parallel with the growing list of alternative energies and environmental protection movements? With oil-based economies on a decline, the second topic asks the question of how we approach supplying aid to developing nations. Technological innovation is a known key variable in determining economic growth and quality of life. As technology and human understanding evolves, corporations have begun to manipulate industries into developing new technologies. How can developing nations benefit from this? I am looking forward to co-chairing this committee and directing a productive weekend with all of you. I hope that all of you get to enjoy this weekend and develop memories like the experiences I have had over the years. Sincerely, Justin Burgess
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Introduction to the Committee The Economic and Financial Affairs Committee (ECOFIN) is the second of six committees in the United Nations General Assembly, being established in 1946 post-World War II.1 It is currently in its seventy-third session, chaired by His Excellency Mr. Jorge Skinner-Klée Arenales, who hails from Guatemala.2 In this session, ECOFIN will be concerned with: …issues relating to economic growth and development such as macroeconomic policy questions; financing for development; sustainable development; human settlements; globalization and interdependence; eradication of poverty; operational activities for development; agriculture development, food security and nutrition; information and communications technologies for development; and towards global partnerships. The Second Committee will also consider issues relating to groups of countries in special situations. It will also consider the item on permanent sovereignty of the Palestinian people in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and of the Arab population in the occupied Syrian Golan over their natural resources.3 While none of the resolutions ECOFIN passes are technically enforceable, as is the case with all General Assembly measures, ECOFIN can recommend for measures to take place on a large scale and their recommendations can have a great impact on the world. Introduction to the Topics Topic A: The Economic Future of Oil-Based Economies The rise of oil was a revolution which changed the world forever, in both physical and figurative senses. Since 1846 – in less than 200 years – humanity has experienced important benefits because of the availability of oil in daily life: improving the generation of power to powering lighting and transportation. Our standards of living have all drastically increased since we have been able to heat our homes in the winter and turn the lights on at night.
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With this boom in productivity, which has only spread within the last few hundred years, many countries have utilized this to be their main source of income and wealth generation at one point or another.4 In fact, despite the United States not being well-known for its oil economy in today’s world, it was in the mid-1800s was the leading oil producer of the world.5 However, the idea of climate change is a scientifically undeniable concept taking hold of the world, especially developed nations that, ironically, led the charge to use fossil fuels. Trends in consumer preferences are a well-known determinant of economic demand,6 so even if oil is continually used in a more normal frequency in the big picture, the “trend� of practicing more environmentally friendly habits can hurt oil-based economies in the short term. This committee will examine the oil crisis in these terms, as well as the degree to which these countries are truly dependent on oil. How does the world address the volatility of the oil economy in the modern world? Is there a place for oil in the global economy when environmental concerns must increasingly be weighed by policymakers? Topic B: The Concept of Delivering Aid to Developing Nations New market and employment sectors crop up more frequently due to the rise of technology in these rapidly changing times. It is beneficial now, as ever, for human capital and intelligence to be utilized to take advantage of the opportunities that modern technology can produce, including a variety new and lucrative goods and services. As the world progresses more than ever before, it is likely that not all the world can progress at the same time. Inequality is a hallmark of capitalism, but it has been debated since its creation as to whether or not inequality is inherently wrong. In the meantime, it is no secret that some nations and more regional pockets of the world are suffering greatly from the power
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imbalance that has been created with the consuming West versus the producing world. In that frame of mind, U.S. foreign aid has is considered “…strategic, economic, and moral imperative for the United States and vital to U.S. national security.”7 What is the role of delivering foreign aid in the modern world, what with new technological progress creating more inequality than ever before in every sense8 – and how should nations approach their strategies for it? How does the developing decline in oil-based economic profit fit in: should nations work to give a temporary fix to nations that need aid or would it be more beneficial to give a blueprint as to how to function in an economy progressing away from oil? Finally, what is there to do about the inherent power balance that will be perpetuated with the donation of foreign aid? Topic A: The Economic Future of Oil-Based Economies Below is a timeline of how the oil industry came to be what it is today. •
1825: Imperial Russia produces 3,500 tons of oil. Output is doubled by 1850.9
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1850: The United States “Black Gold Rush” starts.10
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1908: The Ford Model T comes into the market.11
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1911: Standard Oil is broken into Chevron, Amoco, Mobil, Conoco, and Exxon by the U.S. government.12
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1930: The modern Saudi Arabia is created. In the coming years, it will be discovered that they house the biggest oil field in the world, and quickly become the world’s largest supplier.13
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1932-1939: Iran (1932) and Mexico (1938) nationalize their oil industries, inspiring the fear by countries like the UK and United States of losing control of strategic oil supplies during World War II and in the post-war period.14
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1960: OPEC is created.15
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1985: The ozone layer is found to be eroding. Movements are taken to restore it over the coming decade.
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1986: Deregulation of oil prices. Energy alternatives, a rejected recommendation in the 1970s, becomes prominent.16
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2014: Sparked by recent oil spills, instability from Arab Spring uprisings, and the U.S. hitting a low in oil imports, OPEC meets to discuss stabilizing tumbling crude oil prices.17
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Today: alternative forms of energy are quickly emerging, from wind turbines to algae-run cars;18 crude oil prices have been tumbling since 2014.19
Economic Outcomes to-date and Current Standing of Oil in the World Economy As the role of oil in powering more functions of everyday society increased, the economies that produce oil have only gotten wealthier. Up until oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia, it “…was composed of several regions that lived off specific resources and differentiated human activities.” These included regions with a subsistence economy and limited trade, as well as others that featured plantations, but in general “…permanent habitation could exist only where there was water--at natural springs and wells--the long distances between water sources isolated clusters of people and hampered travel.”.20 The discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia changed its fortunes greatly in the coming decades, with greater development of its oil fields occurring after World War II.21
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The CIA World Factbook characterizes Saudi Arabia today as: … an oil-based economy with strong government controls over major economic activities. It possesses about 16% of the world's proven petroleum reserves, ranks as the largest exporter of petroleum, and plays a leading role in OPEC. The petroleum sector accounts for roughly 87% of budget revenues, 42% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. 22 Saudi Arabia has the 16th-highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, with $1.775 trillion as of 2017; GDP per capita (per person) is $54,500 as of 2017.23 Interestingly, despite the high per capita income, it may be considered a developing, or third-world, country due to its “…lack of a middle class — with impoverished millions in a vast lower economic class and a very small elite upper class controlling the country's wealth and resources.”24 Saudi Arabia is also being strengthened by the political choices of the United States going into 2019. When Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated in October at the Saudi consulate in Turkey, the world was shocked that President Trump did not strongly condemn the Saudi Arabian government for its responsibility in the killing. Instead, President Trump has come out in support of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, whom the CIA concluded ordered Khashoggi’s death. Although the CIA has suggested the suspension of arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other sanctions, the President’s lack of response suggests that the crown prince has strong support in the administration. The President further proposed that his decision against challenging Saudi Arabia on this issue was motivated by his fear of sending oil prices to painfully high levels for United States citizens.25 Since its inception in 1830, Venezuela's oil industry has been a major driver in helping
build stability in a country that had been previously hampered by political instability.26 Venezuela remains highly dependent on oil revenues, which account for almost all export earnings and nearly half of the government’s revenue,
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despite a continued decline in oil production in 2017. In the absence of official statistics, foreign experts estimate that GDP contracted 12% in 2017, inflation exceeded 2000%, people faced widespread shortages of consumer goods and medicine, and the central bank's international reserves dwindled. 27 Venezuela’s real GDP has declined fourteen and seventeen percent in the past two years, respectively; their GDP per capita has declined by nearly $2,000 in that span, to $12,500.28 Iran is almost a combination of the situations which describe Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Iran has operated at the mercy of the oil industry, through both a free and authoritarian governments. Iran’s GDP in 2015 decreased by nearly two percent but increased by over twelve percent the next year.29 These shifts were driven by the redaction of economic sanctions from the United States after Iran agreed to disarm its nuclear arsenal, but market forces have still proven to limit sustained economic growth. The lifting of most nuclear-related sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016 sparked a restoration of Iran’s oil production and revenue that drove rapid GDP growth, but economic growth declined in 2017 as oil production plateaued. The economy continues to suffer from low levels of investment and declines in productivity since before the JCPOA, and from high levels of unemployment, especially among women and college-educated Iranian youth.30
Consequences of Environmental Protections on Oil-Based Economies Thousands of people have been protesting the actions of the Venezuelan government since early last year. Increasingly, the Venezuelan government has responded with violence, which was evident during a peaceful protest in April 2017. Thirty people were detained in one day, to add on to the 115 that already were for that week. “The marches were all peaceful until the national police and guard showed up and the repression started,” Venezuelan opposition lawmaker Jose Guerra said.31
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Along with the social unrest occurring in Venezuela, there are more matters complicating the collective stabilization of the country: Protesters are calling for the firing of all Supreme Court justices in the country after they annulled the legislature and seized its powers. Although the decision was reversed three days later, it was not before those three days were filled with more violent protests.32 Numerous nations and international bodies have come out in opposition for the tightening political controls Venezuela is exercising on its people. The head of the Organization of International States (OAS) stated that Venezuela’s court had “dealt the final blow to democracy in the country,” and called out President Maduro in his address; the United States and European Union condemned the actions happening and called for a legitimate election in the future; finally, eight Latin American neighbors expressed “deep concern” after one of them cut relations off with Venezuela altogether.33 Venezuela has not always been a hot topic in world affairs, but its presence has been slowly building since the latter quarter of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, Venezuela had a fixed currency exchange rate (1 dollar to 4.3 bolivars),34 and though that would have to be readjusted internally at times due to slight inflation and a loss of value, these shifts were sustainable, much like the annual adjustments made by the United States and most Western countries. However, when Mexico was the first Latin American country in modern history to default on its debt in 1982,35 it was not seen to be a threat or a sign of anything to come in Venezuela, but that year inflation was nearly ten percent36 as other Latin American countries started to feel the effects rippling through themselves. The 1980s are widely considered “the lost decade” in Latin America by most economists because economies stagnated; real GDP peaked in 1977 and for a long time that was the best they could get.
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The rise of Hugo Chavez in the late 1990s saw Venezuela transform into a socialist state. Even then, political turmoil and dependence on oil wracked the country: a military coup temporarily held power in 2002, and an oil strike in 2002-2003 saw Venezuela lose 24% of its GDP.37 However, with the benefits of oil were reaped under Chavez and real GDP increased by nearly 50%,38 the government spent more liberally than in past years. “Using legally questionable methods, he started siphoning off billions of dollars [from Venezuela’s main oil company] PDVSA to pay for his social programs, including housing, education, clinics, and school lunches.”39 It has been said that this overreliance of the oil sector’s funds helped set up for today’s turbulence. “But as Chávez channeled more income into other areas, PDVSA was forced to mortgage the future to pay for the political present.”40 Case Studies: Things have become so desperate that Venezuela has tried to boost its petrol economy (which account for ninety-five percent of Venezuela’s economy)41 by launching a new cryptocurrency.42 They even contemplated at one time selling part of their share in the cryptocurrency, known as “the petrol” at a discount, with the help of a private advisory board, called VIBE.43 The nature of this “public offering” should be questioned. Despite its own recommendations, Venezuela has moved forward with the initiation of the petro and now it is the only form of currency usable to obtain official Venezuelan government documents. Maduro’s opponents in the Venezuelan National Assembly have heavily protested the idea, citing unaffordability and frivolity about getting them basic needs.44
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Bloc positions: In a large sense, the bloc positions of certain countries might become adversarial. The concept of oil is not only some of these nations’ bread and butter, but their lifeline. While firstworld, Western countries have time to ponder about the philosophies of life, so to speak, many of the oil-dependent countries being studied do not, especially with rapidly escalating turmoil as a result of the economic misfortune that has plagued them. •
Alliance: Largely, the nations that make up OPEC may try to retain their systems and encourage oil development in whatever way they see fit, collectively or individually.
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The Sprouting Seed of Environmental Cause: It serves well to remember that developed nations still depend on oil in day-to-day life and that won’t go away overnight, and that nations like the United States have most of their infrastructure tied to the automobile as we know it (e.g., with a vast interstate highway network and lackluster public transportation in many places). However, this may be cause for a new generation of politicians to further champion the cause of alternative energy sources. Does this affect these nations’ viewpoints, and how will OPEC and others respond to such an idea?
Guiding Questions: •
Can OPEC countries continue in this way, with oil as the main driver of their economies?
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How can these countries try to recover from their economic hardship, oil-based or otherwise?
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Is there anything other nations can do that can be mutually beneficial despite differing standpoints and shaky ground?
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Topic B: The Concept of Delivering Aid to Developing Nations Below is a timeline of the formation of power in the idea of giving aid to foreign nations. •
1700s: Frederick the Great, of Prussia, sends financial assistance to poorer European countries to ensure their loyalty.45
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1800s and early 1900s: European powers send aid to colonies to create trade partners and allies with better infrastructure for the future.46
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1947: The Marshall Plan is introduced, which is a post-WWII measure that helps European countries regain footing in a quicker manner. The plan’s success gave rise to the United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United States implements more foreign aid plans in the coming decades.47
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1985: “We Are the World,” a widely successful music single produced by various popular music artists of the time, is created to raise awareness of famine plaguing Ethiopia. It is remade in 2010 in response to an earthquake in Haiti.
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1991: With the Soviet Union’s collapse, development projects sponsored by private philanthropists are started and global attention is raised.48
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2015: The United Nations adds the goal of ending poverty globally by 2030 to its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).49
Historical Context: Foreign aid is an interesting concept for the fact that it is a relatively recent idea in international relations. However, that does not mean that it has not had time to evolve, as it has shifted to less of a system of direct donations by governments to more of a system of strategic investments meant to benefit the donor country, in whatever way of exchange they may see fit.
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Case Studies: The United States has created a variety of aid programs in Afghanistan since 2001. At that time, the United States fought a war to remove the Taliban from power due to their connection to harboring Al Qaeda and providing a training ground for the 9/11 hijackers. Following the conclusion of major military operations, the United States began development programs aimed at improving the quality of life in Afghanistan as a way of supporting the fledgling post-Taliban government and keeping Afghanistan from being a place friendly to extremists. One of the areas that the United States has aided, through the State Department’s development agency, USAID, is maternal health. Maternal health is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as “…the health of women during pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period.”50 This issue, along with infant mortality, are specifically indicators of a country’s standard of living, and commonly utilized by economists and world leaders. For example, in 2017, every Scandinavian country, which is a region known for high standards of living, had an average of 2 infant deaths per 1,000 births, while sub-Saharan and coastal Africa led with rates in the 80s.51 In Afghanistan, the rate of maternal mortality, or mothers dying in childbirth, was, on average, 1,100 per 100,000 in 2000,52 which perpetuated the fact that it had the highest rate in the world (infant mortality, which was 900 per 100,000 births53 -- not enough for the top spot, but still alarming, tragic, and high on the world rankings nonetheless). The United States has played a hand in improving Afghanistan’s maternal mortality rates. While they have decreased worldwide, the U.S.’ direct involvement in shaping today’s Afghanistan points to them as contributors to Afghanistan’s success in both technological advancement and cultural shifts in childbirth practices.
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Afghanistan on an everyday level also runs on a patriarchal society: one that puts men in power over women. In this regard, women are largely looked at as less intelligent, less capable, and less “worthy” than man of endeavors such as education. Ninety-three percent of women felt they needed their husband’s approval to seek professional medical care, and ninety-three of women that died in childbirth were illiterate.54 In 2002, only 467 midwives served the entire country of over 20 million,55 meaning that women everywhere were being put at risk by having to give birth in rather unsafe conditions forced upon them by outside circumstances. As aforementioned, the United States has played a hand in improving Afghanistan’s maternal mortality rates. While they have decreased worldwide, the US’ direct involvement in shaping today’s Afghanistan points to them as contributors to Afghanistan’s success in both technological advancement and cultural shifts in childbirth practices. USAID56 has worked closely with Afghanistan in aiding its economic and social structures to improve its health facilities. From 2002-2007, the percentage of people that lived within an hour’s walk to a medical center increased from nine percent to fifty-seven percent.57 In addition, as it has been shown that hemorrhagic complications in pregnancy decrease with level of education, the level of education for Afghan women has increased in stride, despite a mere five percent of pregnant women in western Afghanistan having ever attended school relatively recently.58
Bloc Positions: This topic, more than many others, is one that might have more direct, adversarial discrepancies, on more than one front. In such a direct manner of improvement, different nations may get more confrontational than in other such negotiating instances. Additionally, the public in
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first-world nations may understand the premise on a superficial level without taking national budgets into account, which can throw governments for a loop in trying to appeal to its people. •
How Can You Love Someone Else When You Can’t Love Yourself? Many nations, citing internal problems or questions of national priorities (e.g. the United Kingdom with Brexit), may be reluctant to aid struggling nations.
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Afforded the Opportunity: Leading developed nations such as the United States and the United Kingdom may grapple with the idea, with some members of the general public supporting the idea of their well-off country helping struggling countries on a superficial level while politicians deal with an already-divided populace and drama at home.
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Let’s Make a Deal: Some nations may try to make a deal to help developing countries (e.g. China in many African and Latin American countries) in exchange for incentives: goods and services, favorable trade deals, or more.
Guiding Questions: •
How should we approach bolstering developing countries in today’s rapidly evolving economy?
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How should these notions be applied to oil-based, OPEC-type economies? Should we let the market innovate for these countries or should we act on anticipation of oil’s decline?
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Where should the ethical line be drawn: provide aid to stabilize developing countries that are severely struggling, or intervene only when we foresee an economic crash? For example, should we save someone from drowning when they’re drowning or when we see them wade into deep water?
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Krygier, Rachelle. "Venezuela Launches the 'petro,' Its Cryptocurrency." The Washington Post. February 20, 2018. Accessed November 16, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/20/venezuela-launches-thepetro-its-cryptocurrency/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.42f785ed9583. 43 https://news.bitcoin.com/venezuela-considers-selling-its-oil-backed-cryptocurrency-with-a-60discount/ 44 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/20/venezuela-launches-thepetro-its-cryptocurrency/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.026e9d0c5f62 45 https://borgenproject.org/history-of-foreign-aid/ 46 https://borgenproject.org/history-of-foreign-aid/ 47 https://borgenproject.org/history-of-foreign-aid/ 48
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