Billions in the Balance Postsecondary Attainment, Talent Creation, and Economic Opportunity in Arizona
OCTOBER 2026
Students need more than a message about labor market demand. They need affordable pathways, clearer information, better advising, stronger transfer options, and support to complete their credential.
About Helios Education Foundation Helios Education Foundation exists to support postsecondary attainment for all students in Arizona and Florida, with an emphasis on low-income and historically underrepresented communities. For more than 20 years and driven by the fundamental beliefs of community, equity, investment, and partnership, Helios has invested more than $350 million in partnerships and initiatives focused on improving education outcomes in the two states it serves. Helios is more than a grantmaker. The Foundation takes a multi-pronged approach, working across four domains—performance-based community investments, systemic public policy efforts, research and data, and impact-driven communications—that together support the significant changes required to foster equitable progress across the education continuum.
Board of Directors Vince Roig, Founding Chairman Jane LaRocca Roig, Vice Chair Paul J. Luna, President & CEO Don Aripoli, Ph.D., Director Mark Fernandez, Director
Tom Herndon, Director Chevy Humphrey, DBA, Director Vada O. Manager, Director Ioanna T. Morfessis, Ph.D., Director Larry Rice, Ed.D., Director
Barbara Ryan Thompson, Director Maria Sastre, Director Jim Swanson, Director Steven Wheeler, Director
About Education Forward Arizona Education Forward Arizona is a statewide advocacy organization keeping education at the center of the conversation about advancing pathways to economic opportunity, a high-demand, highly skilled, highwage workforce, and a stronger Arizona. Working directly and in partnership with education, business, and civic leaders, Education Forward Arizona helps drive progress toward the state’s postsecondary attainment goal, Achieve60AZ, a key indicator on the Arizona Education Progress Meter. This includes advocating for policies, funding, and cross-sector strategies that support progress for communities statewide. Its work spans the education continuum—from early learning through postsecondary education and workforce training—and includes scholarships and mentoring that help Arizonans gain skills and credentials.
Authors Clive R. Belfield, PhD, Queens College, City University of New York Paul Perrault, PhD, Helios Education Foundation Kimberly Lent Morales, Helios Education Foundation Rich Nickel, Education Forward Arizona Ian Hickox, Collaborative Communications Group This report is based on research and analysis commissioned by Helios Education Foundation and conducted by Clive R. Belfield (Department of Economics, Queens College, City University of New York, and Center for Benefit-Cost Studies in Education, University of Pennsylvania). Upon request, Dr. Belfield’s study is available from Helios Education Foundation.
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Foreword Arizona has spent years building a stronger economic future, and that future depends on whether the state can educate, prepare, and retain the talent needed to power its growing economy. As the state grows, one central question should remain in focus: How can we ensure that this growth expands opportunities for the people who live, learn, and work here, while continuing to enhance our competitiveness as a state? Arizona builds its talent base by educating residents, attracting skilled workers, and retaining students who come here to pursue postsecondary education. Regardless of whether they are homegrown or drawn to Arizona for its quality of life, people with postsecondary degrees and credentials comprise a crucial part of the talent pool our economy relies on. Today, one of the biggest challenges we face is that too few Arizonans have completed postsecondary education. This is why the Achieve60AZ attainment goal—which calls for 60 percent of Arizonans ages 25-64 to hold a postsecondary degree, certificate, or license by 2030—remains one of Arizona’s most important public priorities. Postsecondary certificates, licenses, associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and advanced degrees continue to translate to substantial value for individuals and, in aggregate, for the state. Compared with high school graduates, Arizonans with bachelor’s degrees gain an additional $1.1 million in lifetime earnings, while those with advanced degrees gain nearly $1.4 million more. Arizona also benefits through stronger tax revenues, lower public costs, improved health, reduced involvement in the criminal justice system, and a more productive workforce. As modeled in this report, for every high school cohort that achieves a 60 percent postsecondary attainment rate, the estimated gains would exceed $11 billion. That is equivalent to 2 percent of our state’s GDP. Increasing postsecondary attainment is not a choice between attracting talent and educating Arizona residents. The state needs both. But the greatest opportunity is to ensure more residents can enter and complete postsecondary pathways that connect them to Arizona’s growing economy. The urgency becomes clear when we see that nearly one-third of students in the 2026 high school class are not expected to enroll in any postsecondary institution after high school. Another 25 percent of this cohort is expected to enroll but leave before completing a credential or degree.
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Addressing these missed opportunities requires more than encouraging students to “go to college.” It requires postsecondary pathways that are affordable enough to enter, structured enough to support completion, transparent enough to trust, and relevant enough to connect with meaningful careers. It also requires stronger alignment among K-12 education, community colleges, universities, employers, state leaders, philanthropy, and local communities. The goal is not simply to produce more credentials. It is to ensure that more Arizonans translate education into economic mobility, security, and long-term opportunity. Billions of dollars hang in the balance, but the greatest impact will be measured in the lives changed. Postsecondary education can unlock economic mobility and life-changing opportunities for Arizona’s next generation of workers, parents, entrepreneurs, and civic leaders. Simply hoping that the talent pipeline will strengthen on its own is misguided and foolish. The state cannot recruit, relocate, or import its way to shared prosperity. It must develop more homegrown talent, starting with our youngest learners. By investing in their success now, we all stand to gain.
Vince Roig Founding Board Chairman Helios Education Foundation
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Paul J. Luna President and CEO Helios Education Foundation
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Executive Summary
Arizona Still Has Billions to Gain Updated economic modeling confirms that increasing postsecondary enrollment and completion would generate substantial benefits for individual Arizonans and for the state. It shows that, were Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort ultimately able to reach a 60 percent postsecondary attainment rate, Arizona would stand to benefit from estimated economic gains that exceed $11 billion. This report updates the analysis presented in Billions to Gain: The Economic Benefits of Investing in a More Educated Arizona, released in 2023. Using updated information about Arizona’s education pipeline, labor market, postsecondary costs, demographics, and economic conditions, the new analysis reaches a similar conclusion: higher levels of postsecondary enrollment and completion continue to produce substantial returns for individuals, communities, taxpayers, and Arizona. Arizona’s Achieve60AZ goal calls for 60 percent of adults ages 25 to 64 to hold a postsecondary certificate, license, or degree by 2030. The state’s attainment rate stood at 50 percent in 2024. Current patterns among younger Arizonans indicate that considerable room for improvement remains.
Statewide Gains from Increased Postsecondary Attainment ATTAINMENT SCENARIO
SOCIAL GAINS PER COHORT
FISCAL GAINS PER COHORT
2026 cohort reaches 60 percent attainment
$11.1 billion
$3.75 billion
College enrollment increases 20 percent
$5.8 billion
$2.0 billion
College completion increases 10 percent
$3.0 billion
$1.0 billion
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. Fiscal gains are a subset of the broader estimate of social gains; accordingly, totals for social and fiscal gains should not be added together. The scenarios modeled represent lifetime gains associated with one high school cohort, rather than annual economic impacts or gains across Arizona’s entire workforce. Each new cohort creates another opportunity for the state to realize benefits associated with greater postsecondary enrollment and completion.
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More Postsecondary Education Continues to Produce Greater Individual Gains For Arizona students and families, the economic value of postsecondary education begins with higher lifetime earnings and better health. Compared with an Arizonan whose education ends with high school, someone who attends college without completing a credential gains an estimated $217,510 over their lifetime. The estimated gain increases to $354,110 for an associate degree graduate, $1.10 million for a bachelor’s degree graduate, and $1.38 million for an individual with an advanced degree. HIGHEST ATTAINMENT
ADDITIONAL LIFETIME GAINS
Some college
$217,510
Associate degree
$354,110
Bachelor’s degree
$1.10 million
Advanced degree
$1.38 million
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. Completion produces the largest gains. The analysis also finds notable gains for individuals who attend college without completing a credential. These findings are particularly relevant as students and families examine the cost and value of education after high school. The overall economic evidence remains strong, while outcomes for individual students depend on the pathways they pursue. Cost, time to completion, transfer options, expected earnings, and connections to employment all influence the value of a specific postsecondary experience. That value can take many forms. Certificates, licenses, associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and advanced degrees all contribute to Arizona’s economy and can provide meaningful opportunities for students, depending on the field and pathway.
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Higher Attainment Creates Broader Benefits for Arizona The benefits associated with postsecondary education extend beyond individual earnings. Higher attainment is also associated with improved health, lower involvement in the criminal justice system, greater workforce productivity, lower public assistance costs, and higher tax revenues. The model captures these effects through estimates of social and fiscal gains. A 20 percent increase in college enrollment would produce an estimated $5.8 billion in lifetime social gains for one Arizona high school cohort, including approximately $2.0 billion in fiscal gains. Increasing associate and bachelor’s degree completion by 10 percent would generate approximately $3.0 billion in social gains, including nearly $1.0 billion in fiscal gains. The updated estimates remain similar in overall magnitude to those calculated in 2023 after accounting for inflation and changes in Arizona’s student population, postsecondary system, and labor market.
The central finding remains consistent: increasing postsecondary attainment creates substantial value for Arizona and its residents.
Demographic Change Raises the Stakes for Attainment Arizona’s high school-age population is projected to decline over the next decade before beginning to increase again. The number of residents ages 14 to 18 is projected to fall from approximately 492,000 in 2025 to about 428,000 in 2037. As future cohorts become smaller, successful transitions from high school into postsecondary education become increasingly consequential. Migration will continue to contribute to Arizona’s talent base, but the projected demographic change increases the importance of helping more Arizona students enter postsecondary education and complete credentials that provide economic value. Current enrollment and completion patterns leave significant potential unrealized. When Arizona residents do not enter or complete postsecondary pathways, individuals may forgo higher earnings and greater economic opportunities. Arizona also realizes fewer of the broader social and fiscal benefits associated with higher attainment. This is the economic opportunity at the center of Billions in the Balance. Arizona’s economy can continue to expand even when some of these potential gains go unrealized. Increasing attainment enables more residents to participate in the opportunities created by that growth.
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Two Industries Show Why Postsecondary Pathways Matter Healthcare and semiconductor-related manufacturing illustrate how the relationship between postsecondary education and employment can vary widely across sectors. Healthcare is a large, established sector with comparatively well-defined credentials and career pathways. Arizona postsecondary institutions award approximately 37,400 healthcare credentials each year, spanning certificates, associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, graduate degrees, and professional credentials. Meeting projected healthcare employment demand would require approximately 8,700 additional credentials annually, a 23 percent increase over current production. The modeled expansion would generate an estimated $12.9 billion in net additional lifetime earnings and $21.4 billion in net lifetime economic value for each expanded annual cohort. Semiconductor-related manufacturing presents a different set of circumstances. The sector is highly capital-intensive and relies on workers prepared through computing, engineering, technical, and technician programs. Those pathways often connect to employment across several industries, and the routes into semiconductor occupations can be less immediately apparent to students. Arizona institutions award approximately 25,290 credentials annually in fields relevant to semiconductor work. Graduates from those programs work throughout the economy, with an estimated 4,300 entering semiconductor employment. Meeting projected sector demand would require approximately 1,240 additional semiconductor-related credentials annually, an increase of about 28 percent in the current sector-specific pipeline. The modeled expansion would generate approximately $1.35 billion in net additional lifetime earnings and $2.63 billion in net economic value per expanded cohort. HEALTHCARE
SEMICONDUCTOR-RELATED MANUFACTURING
Current pipeline
37,400 credentials
4,300 graduates entering sector
Additional credentials needed
8,700 (+23%)
1,240 (+28%)
Net economic value from expanded cohort
$21.4 billion
$2.63 billion
The comparison illustrates why Arizona’s postsecondary pathways need to reflect differences among industries. Healthcare offers an established credential structure that can be expanded and strengthened. Semiconductor-related manufacturing requires continued work to clarify how technical, computing, and engineering education connect to specific occupations and advancement opportunities.
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What the Findings Mean for Arizona The analysis points to two closely related opportunities. Arizona can help more students enter postsecondary education, and it can help more of those who enroll complete credentials with economic value. Progress on either front would generate substantial benefits. Progress on both would strengthen outcomes for students while increasing the broader gains Arizona receives from higher attainment. Reaching those outcomes requires attention across the education continuum. Academic preparation influences whether students are ready for education after high school. Affordability, advising, transfer policies, financial aid, and other supports can affect whether students enroll, persist, and complete. Clear information about programs and careers can help students understand the costs, requirements, and likely outcomes associated with different choices. Completion represents a particularly significant opportunity. Approximately one-quarter of Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort is projected to enroll in postsecondary education without ultimately completing a credential or degree. Increasing associate and bachelor’s degree completion by 10 percent would generate an estimated $3.0 billion in social gains for that cohort. The sector analyses reinforce the importance of providing multiple pathways through postsecondary education. Arizona needs shorter-term credentials and associate degrees as well as bachelor’s, graduate, and professional degrees. The mix differs by occupation and industry, as do the ways students prepare for and advance within particular fields. Connections with employers can strengthen these pathways by providing clearer information about skills and occupations, expanding opportunities for applied learning, and helping education providers respond as workforce needs change. The objective is to ensure that students can see how postsecondary programs connect to careers and make informed choices among the options available to them. Increasing enrollment and completion would allow more Arizonans to realize the individual benefits associated with postsecondary education while generating substantial economic gains for the state.
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Full Report
Introduction We’ve long known that Arizona has billions to gain by increasing postsecondary enrollment and attainment. Those gains are economic, but they are also personal and civic. They show up in higher lifetime earnings for individuals, higher public revenues and lower public costs, healthier communities, and more Arizonans equipped with the education and training needed to build stable lives in a changing economy. But students and families across the country continue to question whether education after high school is worth it. Employers are asking whether education and training systems can prepare the skilled workers they need. State leaders are asking how to connect economic growth with broader opportunity. The fact is, postsecondary education remains one of the most reliable pathways to upward mobility, but access and completion are still shaped by family income, race and ethnicity, parents’ education levels, geography, and the opportunities and support available across the education continuum. In Arizona, the Achieve60AZ attainment goal calls for 60 percent of adults ages 25 to 64 to hold a certificate, license, or degree by 2030. But according to the latest data tracked by the Arizona Education Progress Meter, the state’s postsecondary attainment rate stood at 50 percent in 2024. With only a few years remaining to reach the 2030 goal, Arizona remains 10 percentage points short. That significant gap underscores the need to accelerate progress in postsecondary enrollment and completion. This urgency provides the backdrop for this report, which is a follow-up to Billions to Gain: The Economic Benefits of Investing in a More Educated Arizona, released in March 2023. That report showed how increasing postsecondary enrollment and completion could generate substantial economic benefits for individual Arizonans, communities, taxpayers, and the state as a whole. The updated analysis begins by examining the intersection of Arizona’s economic growth, changing demographics, and opportunities for residents. It then moves to the core question at the center of this report: What does Arizona stand to gain when more students enroll in and complete postsecondary education? The core analysis presents updated estimates of the individual, social, and fiscal gains associated with a single Arizona high school cohort, using new data on the state’s education pipeline, labor market, and postsecondary education outcomes. It also examines the cost of leaving too much student potential unrealized, including the workforce implications of current enrollment and completion patterns.
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The report then analyzes two sector-specific profiles that illustrate how these issues manifest in key areas of Arizona’s economy. The healthcare profile examines a large, labor-intensive industry with established credential pathways and persistent workforce needs. The semiconductor-related manufacturing profile examines a strategically important growth sector with evolving skill demands, newer pathways, and significant attention from employers, institutions, and Arizona leaders. Later sections return to the broader value question facing students, employers, and the state, and the report’s final section offers recommendations to strengthen Arizona’s talent-creation agenda. These recommendations focus on readiness, affordability, completion, career navigation, sector alignment, employer partnerships, and the broader work needed to ensure more Arizona residents can access postsecondary pathways leading to economic mobility, stability, and opportunity.
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About this Report
Spotlight
This follow-up report focuses on the economic impact of increasing postsecondary enrollment and completion. Specifically, it examines what Arizona stands to gain from higher educational attainment and the potential benefits that could go unrealized if current enrollment and completion trends continue. Using data on Arizona’s education pipeline, labor market trends, college costs, and statewide economic conditions, it estimates the lifetime benefits associated with postsecondary education for Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort. That cohort consists of 78,080 students. Based on current statewide trends, an estimated 32 percent are not expected to enroll in any postsecondary institution. In comparison, another 25 percent are expected to enroll but leave without completing a credential or degree. The remaining students are projected to complete associate, bachelor’s, or advanced degrees. The findings reaffirm the core conclusion of the 2023 report: Arizona still has billions to gain if more students enroll in and complete postsecondary education. We also extended the previous analysis by examining two sectors that are especially important to Arizona’s future: healthcare and semiconductor-related manufacturing. The healthcare analysis examines a large, relatively well-understood and predictable sector with well-established credential pathways and persistent workforce needs. The semiconductor analysis examines a fast-growing strategic sector in which computing, engineering, and technical credentials connect to one of Arizona’s most visible areas of economic development.
Using Arizona-specific and national data, the model estimates a range of statewide attainment scenarios and their corresponding economic impacts. It is designed to help answer the following questions: ■
What would happen if Arizona increased the college enrollment rate by 20 percent?
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What would happen if Arizona increased the statewide associate and bachelor’s degree completion rate by 10 percent?
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What would happen if Arizona reached the Achieve60AZ goal rate of 60 percent postsecondary attainment for the 2026 high school cohort?
The statewide attainment model estimates lifetime impacts over a working life, using age bands up to age 65. The sector analyses use separate present-value models tied to program entry. The gains from postsecondary education are shown from three perspectives: ■
Individual: Higher lifetime earnings and increased economic opportunities for individual Arizonans.
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Social: Benefits to Arizona as a whole, including higher earnings, improved health, reduced crime, productivity effects, lower public assistance costs, and changes in the economic costs of taxation.
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Fiscal: Higher federal, state, and local tax revenues, along with lower public expenditures related to health, public assistance, crime, and corrections.
It is important to highlight that the analyses in this report are based on an economic model rather than actual documented outcomes.
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SECTION 1
The Intersection of Economic Growth and Opportunity for Arizonans
Key Findings ■
Between 2023 and 2033, the state is projected to have approximately 81,700 job openings each year that require an associate degree or higher.
■
Beginning in 2029, deaths are projected to exceed births, making net migration the main source of continued population growth.
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Arizona’s high school-age population is also projected to decline before rebounding, falling from roughly 492,000 residents ages 14 to 18 in 2025 to about 428,000 in 2037 before increasing back up to about 470,000 by 2060.
■
For Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort, an estimated 78,080 students will graduate. Based on current statewide trends, nearly one-third are not expected to enroll in any postsecondary institution over their lifetime. Another 25 percent of the full high school cohort is expected to enroll in but not complete a credential or degree program.
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Arizona’s economy is creating new demand for talent. Between 2023 and 2033, the state is projected to have approximately 81,700 job openings each year that require an associate degree or higher.1 At the same time, Arizona’s changing population is reshaping its future workforce needs. The state’s population is projected to grow from approximately 7.7 million residents in 2025 to nearly 9.8 million by 2060. But, beginning in 2029, deaths are projected to exceed births, making net migration the main source of continued population growth. Arizona’s high school-age population is also projected to decline before rebounding, falling from roughly 492,000 residents ages 14 to 18 in 2025 to about 428,000 in 2037 before increasing back up to about 470,000 by 2060.2 These demographic shifts make Arizona’s postsecondary attainment challenge even more urgent. The state will need to draw talent from multiple sources, including residents who earn credentials in Arizona, students and workers who move to Arizona, and adults who return to education and training as industries evolve. Talent attraction, retention, and development will all play important roles in increasing Arizona’s postsecondary attainment rate and strengthening the state’s workforce. Smaller youth cohorts, however, make it even more important that Arizona students successfully transition from high school into postsecondary education and complete credentials of value. As future cohorts shrink, each student’s educational pathways become more consequential, not only for the individual’s future but also for employers and Arizona’s long-term economic prosperity. For Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort, an estimated 78,080 students will graduate. Based on current statewide trends, nearly one-third are not expected to enroll in any postsecondary institution over their lifetime. Another 25 percent of the full high school cohort is expected to enroll in but not complete a credential or degree program. The result is a significant postsecondary attainment gap that will affect students’ lifetime earnings, employers’ access to talent, public revenues, and community well-being for decades to come.
Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, Occupation Projection Trends, 2024, https://oeo.az.gov/labor-market/employment projections#eptrends. 2 Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, Arizona Population Projections: 2025 to 2060, Medium Series, Table 1 and Table 4, December 18, 2025. 1
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Whether Arizona’s growth will expand opportunities for the people who live, learn, and work here is an open question. A state can add jobs, attract investment, establish dynamic new industries and sectors, and recruit skilled workers, all while the pathways that lead to these opportunities and economic mobility remain inaccessible to many residents. For students, the question is whether they can access postsecondary pathways that lead to a better future. For employers, the question is whether Arizona can develop a reliable talent base while continuing to attract workers elsewhere. And for the state, it is whether economic growth will translate into broader prosperity or leave too many opportunities beyond the reach of Arizona residents. This is why Arizona’s attainment strategy must not be driven solely, or even primarily, by workforce demands or the needs of specific industries. Students need more than a message about labor market demand. They need affordable pathways, clearer information, better advising, stronger transfer options, and support to complete their credential. Families need evidence that postsecondary education can lead to stability and upward mobility. Communities need confidence that the benefits of growth will be broadly shared. Arizona’s choice is not between attracting talent and educating residents. The state needs both. The real question is whether Arizona will make postsecondary attainment central to turning economic growth into greater opportunity. If Arizona strengthens the pathways that help more residents earn valuable credentials, the benefits will extend well beyond individual graduates. They will show up in higher household incomes, a more competitive workforce, stronger public revenues, a more vibrant civic life, and more resilient communities across Arizona.3
Arizona’s attainment strategy needs to account for the movement of college-educated workers across state lines. A 2026 report from Strada Education Foundation finds that, nationally, two-thirds of collegeeducated workers still live in the state where they attended high school. Most, 55 percent, attended both high school and college in the state where they now work, while another 12 percent left for college and later returned to their home state. About one-third of college-educated talent migrated to the state where they now live at some point after high school.4 Arizona’s challenge is especially important because the state retains only a relatively small percentage of the college-educated talent it helps produce. Strada’s findings indicate that only 41 percent of graduates of Arizona postsecondary institutions remain in the state, compared with the top two states, Texas and California, which retain 84 percent and 83 percent, respectively. In fact, Arizona ranks among the bottom five states in retaining talent produced by in-state postsecondary institutions.5 Additionally, just 43 percent of college-educated workers in the state are homegrown, meaning they attended both high school and college in the state. This finding reinforces the importance of a balanced talent strategy, one that not only produces homegrown talent but also provides graduates from in-state institutions with attractive and viable pathways to living and working in Arizona, while also attracting talent from other states.
Center for the Future of Arizona and Rounds Consulting Group, 2025. Unlocking Potential: The Economic Benefits of Advancing Key Voter Priorities, “Post-Secondary Attainment.” 4 Strada Education Foundation, 2026. Talent in Motion: Interstate Migration of College-Educated Workers. 5 Ibid. 3
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Arizona should remain a state that attracts skilled workers and postsecondary students from elsewhere while also creating opportunities for more residents to earn valuable credentials.
SECTION 2
Arizona Still Has Billions to Gain: Individual, Social, and Fiscal Benefits of Postsecondary Education
Key Findings The more education Arizona students complete after high school, the greater the lifetime gains they can expect. ■
Compared with high school graduates, Arizonans with at least some postsecondary education can expect upwards of $217,000 more in lifetime gains. These expected gains increase to $1.1 million for individuals who earn a bachelor’s degree.
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If Arizona increased college enrollment by 20 percent for a single high school cohort, the estimated social gain would be $5.8 billion, and the estimated fiscal gain would be $2 billion.
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If Arizona increased college completion by 10 percent for that same cohort, the estimated social gain would be $3 billion, and the estimated fiscal gain would be $1 billion.
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If the 2026 high school cohort reached the 60 percent attainment rate called for by the Achieve60AZ attainment goal, the estimated lifetime social gain would be $11 billion, with $3.75 billion in fiscal gains.
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To demonstrate the economic benefits of increased postsecondary enrollment and completion for Arizona and its residents, this analysis models the economic impacts of higher educational attainment. The model is based on Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort of 78,080 students and estimates the monetary flows associated with each level of educational attainment over an individual’s working life: high school graduate, some college, associate degree, bachelor’s degree, or advanced degree. All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. The benefits of postsecondary enrollment and completion extend beyond individual students. Individuals gain from higher lifetime earnings, greater economic opportunity, and other benefits associated with additional education. Together, those individual gains create broader benefits for communities, taxpayers, and Arizona’s economy overall. For this reason, the analysis examines postsecondary attainment from three perspectives: individual, social, and fiscal.
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Individual gains are the private benefits Arizonans receive from postsecondary education. These gains are primarily expressed through higher lifetime earnings and greater economic opportunity. They also account for private health benefits and the costs students pay to attend college.
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Social gains are the broader benefits that postsecondary enrollment and completion generate for communities and the state of Arizona as a whole. These include higher gross earnings, improved health, lower crime rates, reduced reliance on public assistance, increased workforce productivity, and changes in the economic costs of taxation. Social gains also account for the cost of providing postsecondary education.
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Fiscal gains are the benefits for taxpayers. These include higher federal, state, and local tax revenues, along with lower public expenditures related to health, public assistance, crime, and corrections. Fiscal gains are part of the overall social value of postsecondary education, but they warrant separate examination because they reveal how postsecondary attainment rates affect public budgets.
The updated findings reinforce the central conclusion of the 2023 Billions to Gain report: postsecondary education produces substantial economic benefits for individuals and Arizona. The updated analysis incorporates evidence on Arizona’s education pipeline, labor market trends, college costs, and the state’s evolving economy.
Simply put, the more education Arizona students complete after high school, the greater the lifetime gains they can expect.
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How We Model the Economic Impact of Attainment Individuals benefit personally from earning a postsecondary degree or certificate mainly through higher lifetime earnings and better health. Those individual benefits add up to large-scale economic gains for Arizona. To estimate those impacts, the model accounts for the following: Lifetime Earnings: Postsecondary attainment is associated with better economic outcomes than a high school diploma alone, including higher wages, more fringe benefits, increased labor force participation and employment, greater job security, and better working conditions. Taxes: Because individuals with postsecondary education earn more over their lifetime, they also contribute more in federal, state, and local taxes, generating additional public revenue across levels of government.
Externalities, Public Assistance, Education Costs, and Deadweight Loss: To fully account for the economic impact of increased postsecondary education, four additional factors must be considered: ■
Positive economic effects, including increased regional investment, innovation, and workforce productivity.
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Reduced public assistance spending, as people with higher levels of education are, on average, less likely to rely on public assistance.
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Costs related to providing postsecondary education, including public subsidies and their social and fiscal impacts.
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Changes to the Marginal Excess Tax Burden (METB), which is the economic distortion or deadweight loss from imposing taxes. Increased educational attainment reduces the METB, conveying a social benefit for Arizona.
Health: Individuals with more postsecondary education generally experience better health than high school graduates. Therefore, as educational attainment increases statewide, health-related public costs are projected to decline, yielding significant social and fiscal benefits. Crime: Individuals with postsecondary education are less likely to engage in criminal activity. As a result, criminal justice system involvement and related public costs are projected to decline if postsecondary attainment increases.
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Individual Gains Increase with Attainment Levels Compared with a high school graduate, an Arizonan who attends college but does not complete a credential will benefit from an estimated $217,510 in lifetime gains, largely as a result of increased earnings and better health. The gain rises to $354,110 for an associate degree graduate, $1,104,520 for a bachelor’s degree graduate, and $1,384,180 for an advanced degree graduate. These figures reflect the cost of postsecondary enrollment and attendance and are expressed as lump-sum amounts at age 18.
Lifetime Individual Gains Compared with a High School Graduate, by Highest Attainment Level
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. These gains help explain why postsecondary attainment remains central to economic mobility. Even students who enroll in a postsecondary program without completing a credential are projected to earn more in their lifetimes than students whose education ends with high school. The largest gains, however, are associated with completed credentials. For individual students and families, completion continues to matter.
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Social Gains Are Larger Than Individual Gains The social value of postsecondary attainment exceeds the individual value because the benefits extend beyond a student’s personal gains. Higher levels of education are associated with stronger health outcomes, lower involvement in the criminal justice system, greater productivity, and lower public costs. When those benefits are measured over a lifetime, the gains are substantial. Compared with a high school graduate, an Arizonan with some college produces an estimated $266,020 in lifetime social gains. An associate degree graduate produces $432,210. A bachelor’s degree graduate produces $1,218,840, and an advanced degree graduate produces $1,491,140.
Lifetime Social Gains Compared to a High School Graduate, by Highest Attainment Level
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. The size of these gains makes postsecondary education more than a private investment by individuals and their families. When more Arizonans enroll in and complete postsecondary education, the state benefits from a healthier, more productive, and more economically secure population. Those gains build across each graduating cohort.
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Fiscal Gains Are Also Significant The fiscal gains associated with postsecondary attainment reflect the taxpayer benefits of higher tax revenues and lower government spending. The total lifetime fiscal gains range from $99,610 for an Arizonan with some college to $532,500 for an Arizonan with an advanced degree, compared with a high school graduate.
Lifetime Fiscal Gains Compared to a High School Graduate, by Highest Attainment Level
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. These figures show how individual education outcomes can have broader effects on public budget consequences. Postsecondary graduates tend to earn more over their working lives, which increases tax revenues. They are also, on average, less likely to require certain public expenditures in health, welfare, crime, and corrections. Fiscal gains do not capture all the benefits of postsecondary education, but they do show why attainment matters to taxpayers as well as students.
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Increasing Enrollment and Completion Generates Billions in Statewide Gains The per-person gains become especially important when applied across an entire high school cohort. If Arizona increased college enrollment by 20 percent for a single high school cohort, the estimated social gain would be $5.803 billion, and the estimated fiscal gain would be $2.004 billion. If Arizona increased college completion by 10 percent for that same cohort, the estimated social gain would be $3.002 billion, and the estimated fiscal gain would be $0.996 billion. These estimates account for the cost of additional college attendance but do not include additional resources that may be needed to increase enrollment or completion.
Statewide Social and Fiscal Gains from Increased College Attainment ATTAINMENT SCENARIO
SOCIAL GAINS PER COHORT
FISCAL GAINS PER COHORT
Cohort meets Achieve60AZ attainment goal6
$11.073 billion
$3.754 billion
College enrollment rate increases by 20 percent
$5.803 billion
$2.004 billion
College completion rate increases by 10 percent
$3.002 billion
$0.996 billion
Note: All values are expressed in 2026 dollars as present values at age 18. These are lifetime gains for one high school cohort, not estimates for the entire Arizona workforce. Each year brings a new cohort of students, creating new opportunities for gains as more students move through Arizona’s education system and into the workforce. The figures, therefore, show both the value of a single cohort and the larger potential benefits of sustained increases in postsecondary attainment over time. The most ambitious scenario modeled in the updated analysis estimates the gains if a high school cohort reached the Achieve60AZ goal of having 60 percent of Arizona adults ages 25 to 64 hold a certificate, license, or degree. If the 2026 high school cohort reached that level of attainment, the estimated lifetime social gain would be $11.073 billion, with $3.754 billion in fiscal gains. Reaching this attainment threshold would require 88 percent of the 2026 high school cohort to enroll in postsecondary education. Among those who complete a postsecondary credential, about one-third would earn a certificate or license, and two-thirds would earn a degree.
This model does not include the full Arizona working population aged 25-64. Many among this population would be unlikely to return to education. The model calculates the economic value for each cohort (and subsequent cohorts) in which 60% have met the educational attainment metric. 6
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The Stable Value Proposition of Postsecondary Education The updated model also shows that Arizona’s gains from postsecondary education remain similar in magnitude to those in the prior analysis. After adjusting for inflation and changes in Arizona’s student population, postsecondary system, and labor market, the estimated benefits are approximately 5 percent higher in 2026 than in the earlier analysis. The stability of these findings matters. It suggests that even as Arizona’s economy changes, the economic value of increasing postsecondary enrollment and completion remains substantial.
Billions to Lose: The Cost of Unmet Potential Arizona has billions to gain by increasing postsecondary enrollment and completion. On the flip side, this same evidence illustrates the billions Arizona stands to lose if students do not successfully move through the education pipeline. “Billions to lose” refers to unrealized value. It is not a prediction that Arizona’s economy will collapse or that companies will necessarily leave if workforce needs are not met. Employers have many ways to adapt. They can recruit from other states and countries, adjust hiring requirements, build internal training systems, change the scale or timing of expansion, or rely on experienced workers already in the labor market. Postsecondary institutions can also respond to enrollment pressures in various ways, including recruiting students from outside Arizona. Those responses may help individual employers or institutions solve immediate problems. Still, they do not necessarily ensure that more Arizona students and families benefit from the opportunities being created in the state. The greater risk is that Arizona continues to grow while leaving behind its homegrown talent whose gains go unrealized. In that case, the state would face more than a talent challenge. It would miss out on the individual, social, fiscal, and civic gains that come when more residents are prepared to participate in their local economies. The opportunity cost begins with each high school cohort. As a state, Arizona loses out on potential benefits when nearly one-third of students in the 2026 high school cohort do not enroll in any postsecondary institution, and another one-quarter enroll but leave without completing a credential or degree.
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Those students are not abstractions in an economic model. They represent future workers, parents, taxpayers, entrepreneurs, caregivers, and community members. When they do not enroll in postsecondary education or leave without completing a degree or credential, Arizona loses out on some of the benefits associated with higher attainment levels. Students forgo higher earnings and greater economic opportunities. Families miss out on financial security. Communities lose the stabilizing effects of higher income and stronger workforce participation. And public budgets lose out on additional tax revenue and other fiscal benefits associated with higher levels of postsecondary attainment. Every cohort that moves through Arizona’s education system without higher levels of postsecondary enrollment and completion represents billions of dollars in value that may go unrealized. For that reason, Arizona’s opportunity cost reflects the performance of the full education continuum. Early childhood, pre-K, elementary, and middle school shape readiness, confidence, and preparation. High schools influence whether students graduate with a plan and understand the range of postsecondary options available to them. Community colleges, universities, technical programs, and workforce providers play a critical role in whether students enroll, persist, transfer, and complete. The state’s challenge is to strengthen the connections across these systems so that more students can move through them without losing time, credits, money, or momentum. The workforce implications are significant, but they should be understood as part of a broader question of opportunity. Between 2023 and 2033, Arizona is projected to have approximately 81,700 job openings each year that require at least an associate degree, after focusing on openings tied to labor-force exits and net growth. A recent Arizona analysis estimates that the state produces about 10,400 new postsecondary graduates each year, leaving an opportunity for roughly 71,300 more Arizonans to prepare for and move into higher-paying jobs. Closing that workforce preparation gap could generate an estimated $20 billion in additional annual economic output, $7.9 billion in annual wages, and $743.6 million in annual state and local tax revenues.7 If Arizona does not close this gap, many jobs may still be filled, either through migration or through employer adaptation. The opportunity cost would fall most heavily on Arizona residents who could have been prepared to fill those roles but were not.
Center for the Future of Arizona and Rounds Consulting Group, 2025. Unlocking Potential: The Economic Benefits of Advancing Key Voter Priorities, “Post-Secondary Attainment.” 7
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This broader challenge becomes especially clear when looking at two important sectors of Arizona’s economy: healthcare and semiconductor-related manufacturing. Both offer significant opportunities for workers with postsecondary education and training while also facing high demands for skilled talent. In these sectors, the opportunity cost is not simply that employers may have difficulty hiring. It is also possible that students who could pursue high-return pathways may never see themselves in those fields, may not receive the preparation needed to pursue them, may be unable to afford the necessary education or training, or may leave before completing their programs. Seen this way, a healthcare vacancy or a semiconductor talent gap is also a student-pathway issue. If Arizona expands access to and completion in these fields, more residents can move into jobs that support family stability and the state’s economic growth. If access remains uneven, the gains from sector expansion will be less likely to reach communities that have historically faced barriers to postsecondary attainment. The cost of inaction accumulates quietly. It appears in students who never apply because no one helped them see a clear path, and among those who enroll but stop out because the cost becomes untenable. It appears in credits that do not transfer, programs that are difficult to navigate, and career pathways that students discover too late. Over time, these missed opportunities can result in lower lifetime earnings for individuals and families, fewer residents connected to stable employment, and public budgets that do not receive the full fiscal benefit of higher attainment.
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SECTION 3
Industry Profiles: Healthcare and SemiconductorRelated Manufacturing
Key Findings ■
Healthcare and semiconductor manufacturing illustrate how pathways to highdemand careers can vary significantly by sector.
■
To match projected healthcare employment demand over the next decade, Arizona postsecondary institutions would need to graduate approximately 8,700 more students with healthcare credentials each year, including certificates and degrees at all levels.
The broader lifetime economic value of these healthcare credentials is estimated at nearly 72 billion. ■
Arizona postsecondary institutions would need to graduate approximately 1,240 additional students in semiconductor-related programs of study each year to meet projected sector needs.
The broader economic value is estimated at $9.15 billion.
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The healthcare and semiconductor-related manufacturing sectors illustrate how the relationship between postsecondary education and employment can vary widely across industries. Healthcare is a large, long-standing sector with persistent workforce demand, well-established credential structures, and occupational pathways that students, colleges, employers, and licensing bodies can define with relative clarity. The semiconductor sector is categorically different. It is a fast-growing, regionally concentrated, and capital-intensive sector in Arizona, with strong returns to computing, engineering, and technical credentials. But its pathways are more closely tied to rapid industry expansion, technological change, and the evolving needs of a specialized field, and, compared to healthcare, it employs relatively fewer workers. That contrast matters for Arizona’s attainment strategy. Arizona’s recent semiconductor expansion is remarkable for the sheer scale of capital investment. Arizona has attracted more than $314 billion in semiconductor-related capital investment since 2020.8 The economic significance of the healthcare sector looks different. Rather than being concentrated in a handful of extraordinarily capital-intensive projects, it is reflected in a much larger existing workforce, tens of billions of dollars in annual economic activity, and a statewide network of hospitals, clinics, practices, and other providers that has grown over decades. In 2025, the healthcare sector accounted for approximately $51.4 billion of Arizona’s GDP.9 Furthermore, in healthcare, the state can build on established pathways and expand access to credentials that are already well understood. In semiconductor-related fields, the state must also help students navigate a more specialized and rapidly changing set of opportunities and skill sets. Together, these two sectors illustrate the need for an attainment strategy that both strengthens proven pathways and adapts to emerging opportunities in a changing economy.
Healthcare Healthcare makes Arizona’s attainment challenge visible in one of the state’s largest and most essential employment sectors. Nationally, healthcare and social assistance are projected to employ more people over the next decade than any other sector, and several of the fastest-growing occupations are connected to healthcare.10 In Arizona, the healthcare workforce is already a major employment base, with an estimated 340,000 to 450,000 workers, depending on how the sector is defined. The sector also continues to grow. Since August 2025, Arizona has added 13,600 new jobs in healthcare and social assistance, making that sector one of the state’s primary sources of job growth.11 Healthcare offers an important starting point for this report’s two sector profiles because its education and career pathways are better established than those in semiconductor-related manufacturing. Students can enter the field through certificates, associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, graduate degrees, doctoral degrees, and professional practice credentials. Many of these credentials align with recognizable occupations, licensing requirements, advancement paths, and employer needs. That does not make the pathways easy to complete or equally accessible to all students. But compared with some newer or rapidly changing industries, healthcare provides a clearer map of how postsecondary education connects to work.
Arizona Commerce Authority. “Arizona Manufacturing Semiconductor Advantages.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Gross Domestic Product: Healthcare and Social Assistance in Arizona.” 10 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. August 2025.”Employment Projections: 2024–2034 Summary.” BLS projects that healthcare and social assistance will have the largest job growth and will be the fastest-growing industry sector from 2024 to 2034. 11 Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. September 2026. “Employment Report.” 8 9
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The clarity of those pathways matters for students. A student interested in healthcare can often see several possible routes: a shorter certificate that leads to entry-level employment, an associate degree that opens the door to clinical practice, a bachelor’s degree that supports advancement, or a graduate or professional degree that leads to specialized practice and leadership. For working adults, healthcare also offers opportunities to add credentials over time. In fact, many healthcare credentials are earned by working professionals who are augmenting their career skills. At the same time, it is also important to note that the visibility and availability of pathways does not always mean that would-be students have access to them. Institutions that offer in-demand healthcare programs, nursing being a prime example, often have long waitlists. Healthcare programs can be very expensive to provide and institutional capacity is inherently limited by resource constraints. The sector is also important because it shows why postsecondary attainment cannot be viewed solely through the lens of four-year degrees. Arizona’s healthcare workforce depends on credentials at every level. Arizona postsecondary institutions award approximately 37,400 healthcare-related credentials each year. Nearly one-third of those awards are bachelor’s degrees in health fields, and almost one-quarter are certificates. Across all credential types, the total expenditure associated with educating the 2026 healthcare cohort is estimated at $5.6 billion. HEALTHCARE CREDENTIAL CATEGORY
ANNUAL ARIZONA CREDENTIALS EARNED
PRESENT-VALUE COST PER CREDENTIAL EARNED
Certificates, all durations
10,630
$7,320 to $23,570
Associate degrees
4,500
$74,430
Bachelor’s degrees
13,330
$192,580
Post-baccalaureate and postmaster’s certificates
290
$208,660 to $243,440
Master’s degrees
6,730
$240,210
Doctoral degrees, professional practice, and research
1,900
$289,440 to $563,680
The returns associated with healthcare credentials are strong across award levels. Compared with a high school graduate, every healthcare credential category in the model produces a positive lifetime net gain even after accounting for college costs. The estimated lifetime net gain is $153,120 for certificate holders, $895,900 for associate degree holders, $1,481,370 for bachelor’s degree holders, $1,976,180 for master’s degree holders, and $5,679,590 for doctoral degree holders. HIGHEST HEALTHCARE CREDENTIAL
LIFETIME EARNINGS
NET GAIN COMPARED TO A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
High school graduate
$910,530
NA
Certificate
$1,079,600
$153,120
Associate degree
$1,880,860
$895,900
Bachelor’s degree
$2,592,520
$1,481,370
Master’s degrees
$3,128,540
$1,976,180
Doctoral degree
$7,057,820
$5,679,590
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Associate degrees are especially important in the healthcare sector because their program costs, while expensive for institutions to provide, are comparatively lower for students compared to longer degree programs while their career earnings, driven in large part by nursing, are comparatively high. Certificates also play an important role by providing shorter pathways into the field. Graduate and professional degrees require more time and investment, yet they produce the largest lifetime gains in the model. This full range of pathways is a key contributor to the healthcare sector’s economic value to Arizona, and these pathways require sustained investment in the institutions and partnerships that make them possible. The earnings benefits also grow over time. Ten years after graduation, earnings for healthcare workers with bachelor’s degrees are estimated to be 1.7 times higher than they were at the start of their career. For workers with professional healthcare degrees, earnings more than double over the same period. The aggregate value of these credentials is substantial. For each annual cohort of approximately 37,400 healthcare credentials awarded in Arizona, the estimated cost of providing that education is $5.6 billion. The lifetime extra earnings associated with those awards, relative to a high school graduate, are estimated at $50.1 billion. After subtracting college costs, the net earnings gain is $44.5 billion. The broader lifetime economic value of these healthcare credentials is estimated at $79.4 billion, or $71.8 billion after accounting for college costs.12 ECONOMIC VALUE OF ARIZONA HEALTHCARE AWARDS
PRESENT VALUE PER ANNUAL COHORT
Cost of awards
$5.6 billion
Lifetime earnings value
$50.1 billion
Net earnings gain
$44.5 billion
Economic value
$79.4 billion
Net economic value
$71.8 billion
Arizona’s need for healthcare talent remains significant. As of 2026, Arizona’s nursing shortage is estimated at 25 percent, meaning the state would need approximately 18,600 additional nurses to meet demand. The physician shortage is estimated at 37 percent, representing a need for about 6,980 additional physicians. That physician shortage is projected to continue increasing over the next decade, reaching an estimated 11,580 by 2038. Meeting this need will take time because the current workforce is much larger than any single annual graduating cohort. Increasing the number of students earning postsecondary healthcare credentials can strengthen the workforce, but each new cohort adds capacity gradually. At the same time, the sector is also becoming more education-intensive. From 2026 to 2034, the share of healthcare workers without an associate degree or higher is projected to decline, while the share with graduate degrees is projected to rise. This shift toward jobs requiring higher levels of education and training could further increase the value of postsecondary education in the healthcare sector.
These estimates should be read as lifetime present values for one annual cohort of healthcare graduates. They are investments in human capital that yield value over time. They are not annual operating totals for the healthcare sector, and they do not include every indirect effect that healthcare employment may have on other parts of the economy. 12
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The modeled expansion shows the scale of the opportunity. To match projected healthcare employment demand over the next decade, Arizona postsecondary institutions would need to graduate approximately 8,700 more students with healthcare credentials each year, including certificates and degrees at all levels. That would represent a 23 percent increase over current production. Crucially, though, expanding capacity is not simply a matter of increasing the number of available seats in a program. It requires substantial increases in infrastructure and institutional resources—such as for qualified faculty, facilities, clinical placements, and high-quality simulation—all of which necessitate greater levels of public investment in the institutions that provide the programs the healthcare sector relies on. As modeled, expanding capacity by 23 percent in Arizona would require an additional $1.7 billion in public support. Even so, the projected return on investment greatly exceeds this cost. The additional lifetime earnings associated with these credentials are estimated at $14.6 billion, producing a net earnings gain of $12.9 billion after accounting for college costs. The broader economic value is estimated at $23.1 billion, or $21.4 billion after subtracting the costs of producing those additional credential awards. ECONOMIC VALUE OF EXPANDING ARIZONA HEALTHCARE PROGRAMS
PRESENT VALUE PER EXPANDED COHORT
Additional annual awards needed
8,700
Increase over current production
23 percent
Cost of additional awards
$1.7 billion
Earnings value
$14.6 billion
Net earnings gain
$12.9 billion
Economic value
$23.1 billion
Net economic value
$21.4 billion
The expansion model isolates what Arizona postsecondary institutions could contribute by increasing the number of healthcare credentials awarded. Migration will also continue to shape Arizona’s healthcare labor supply, as workers with credentials earned elsewhere move to the state. The opportunity for Arizona is to ensure more residents can see, enter, and complete healthcare pathways that lead to careers in fields where workers are already in high demand. National practice also suggests that healthcare pathways benefit from deliberate career mapping and employer partnership. The Baltimore Alliance for Careers in Healthcare, for example, brings together healthcare providers, educational institutions, and local governments to create pathways to familysustaining careers. Its model includes career maps, job sequencing with employers, career coaches located in hospitals, and work-based routes that help lower-paid hospital workers move into roles such as nursing assistant, patient care technician, registered nurse, and surgical, radiology, laboratory, or pharmacy technician.
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For Arizona, this kind of pathway design is relevant because healthcare credentials are not simply academic awards. They are steps along a broader pathway that includes preparation, advising, clinical placements, licensure, employment, and career advancement. Students need clear information about where each credential leads, what it costs, how long it takes, whether additional credentials are required, and what support is available along the way.
Semiconductor-Related Manufacturing While healthcare illustrates the value of well-established education and career pathways, semiconductor-related manufacturing represents a different kind of attainment challenge for Arizona. The sector is more closely associated with rapid investment, specialized facilities, fast-moving technology, and evolving skill needs. That difference matters for Arizona’s education strategy. The state needs pathways that are rigorous enough to meet industry needs, flexible enough to adapt as technology changes, and clear enough for students to understand before they choose a program. This sector has become strategically important to Arizona’s growth and a source of exceptional capital investment. The Arizona Commerce Authority describes Arizona as one of the nation’s leading semiconductor states, highlighting more than $314 billion in statewide semiconductorrelated investments since 2020—including a new $100 billion investment by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) announced in July 2026—and $100 million invested in semiconductor infrastructure, workforce development, and research. The sector has also generated significant activity through new semiconductor manufacturing, workforce accelerators, supplier expansion, and industry partnerships.13 The attention is understandable, given the extraordinary capital investments and the industry’s importance. Semiconductor production sits at the center of several economic priorities: advanced manufacturing, national technology capacity, artificial intelligence, supply chain resilience, and highwage technical employment. For Arizona students, the sector offers strong opportunities but can also be difficult to navigate. Students may not see a simple pathway labeled “semiconductor.” Instead, the relevant routes often run through computing, engineering, technical, and technician programs, workbased learning, short-term training, applied associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, graduate education, and ongoing upskilling for workers already in the field. Given this complexity, this analysis focuses on postsecondary credentials in three fields directly relevant to semiconductor employment in Arizona: computing, engineering, and technical or technician programs. Arizona postsecondary institutions award approximately 25,290 postsecondary credentials annually in these fields. More than one-third are certificates, about one-sixth are associate degrees, one-quarter are bachelor’s degrees, and one-fifth are post-graduate qualifications.
13
Arizona Commerce Authority, “Arizona Manufacturing Semiconductor Advantages.”
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It is important to specify that these awards do not all lead directly to employment at firms that manufacture semiconductors, or even employment in the semiconductor field. Graduates may work in other industries, and some awardees may already be working professionals who are expanding their skills. SEMICONDUCTORRELEVANT CREDENTIAL CATEGORY
ANNUAL ARIZONA AWARDS
PRESENT-VALUE COST PER AWARD
Certificates, all durations
8,850
$22,430 to $33,580
Associate degrees
3,960
$94,640
Bachelor’s degrees
6,670
$295,320
Post-baccalaureate certificates
120
$303,510
Master’s degrees
5,440
$328,870
Doctoral degrees
250
$492,370
Total
25,290
$4.52 billion total cohort cost
The returns associated with these credentials are strong, though they vary by field and award level. Across Arizona, semiconductor technicians earn an estimated $81,480, which is 48 percent higher than the mean wage for production occupations. Workers in computer and mathematical occupations earn $115,890 on average, 64 percent more than the average Arizona worker. Industrial engineers earn $129,580, and engineering technicians earn $77,520. At the industry level, workers in semiconductorrelated manufacturing earn $132,750. The earnings gains also grow over time. For graduates of Arizona’s three public universities with semiconductor-related credentials, earnings increase by 34 to 37 percent within five years of graduation and by 59 to 74 percent within ten years. Notably, these estimates may understate the value of semiconductor-related credentials because some data predate, or do not fully capture, the sector’s rapid growth in Arizona over the last five years. SEMICONDUCTOR-RELATED FIELD AND CREDENTIALS
LIFETIME EARNINGS
NET GAIN COMPARED TO A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE
SOCIAL RATE OF RETURN
Computer sciences certificate
$1,037,820
$134,650
8.1%
Computer sciences bachelor’s degree
$2,396,600
$1,266,180
10.7%
Computer sciences advanced degree
$3,660,260
$2,438,750
11.8%
Engineering bachelor’s degree
$2,396,600
$1,171,290
11.9%
Engineering master’s degree
$2,466,570
$1,374,930
13.9%
Engineering advanced degree
$3,660,260
$2,261,670
20.3%
Technical certificate
$1,100,780
$196,340
10.4%
Technical associate degree
$1,676,250
$726,150
17.9%
Weighted semiconductor fields
$2,159,830
$1,064,350
12.3%
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These findings show why semiconductor-related pathways should be part of Arizona’s attainment strategy. Technical certificates and associate degrees can produce meaningful returns, especially when they lead to skilled technician roles. Bachelor’s and graduate degrees are important for careers in engineering, computing, research, design, management, and other specialized areas. The sector needs workers at multiple levels of preparation, and students need to understand how those levels connect. That clarity is especially important because the sector is changing, and the pathways into different jobs are less well-defined than in more traditional sectors such as healthcare. Semiconductor-related credentials vary in duration, cost, field, and labor-market use. The skills needed for these jobs are also likely to evolve, meaning that currently employed workers will need additional education and training. The aggregate value of the current pipeline is substantial. Of the approximately 25,290 credentials awarded annually in semiconductor-relevant fields, approximately 4,300 are earned by graduates who will work in the semiconductor industry. Producing those awards costs approximately $0.78 billion. Compared with a high school education, the additional lifetime earnings associated with those credentials are estimated at $5.52 billion. After subtracting college costs, the net earnings gain is $4.74 billion. The broader economic value is estimated at $9.93 billion, or $9.15 billion after accounting for college costs.14 ECONOMIC VALUE OF ARIZONA SEMICONDUCTOR-RELATED CREDENTIALS
PRESENT VALUE PER ANNUAL COHORT
Estimated credentials leading to semiconductor employment
4,300
Cost of award
$0.78 billion
Lifetime earnings value
$5.52 billion
Net earnings gain
$4.74 billion
Economic value
$9.93 billion
Net economic value
$9.15 billion
These estimates are lifetime present values for one annual cohort, not annual economic activity in the semiconductor sector. They also focus on graduates projected to work in the sector, even though Arizona colleges produce many more credentials in computing, engineering, and technical fields that can serve other parts of the economy. That broader applicability is a strength. It also means Arizona needs pathways that prepare students for semiconductor employment while giving them skills with value across related industries. 14
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Arizona institutions are already responding to the semiconductor sector’s workforce needs through new programs and partnerships. Arizona State University and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), one of the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturers, have developed a partnership focused on student support, workforce training and development, and faculty research. TSMC has established a major manufacturing presence in Phoenix, where its first advanced U.S. semiconductor fabrication facility began production in 2024. In July 2026, the company announced its plans to invest an additional $100 billion. This will bring TSMC’s total planned investment in Arizona to $265 billion to date. ASU and TSMC Arizona have also launched an accelerated technician training program intended to prepare participants for equipment technician roles. The program emphasizes job-readiness, access to cleanroom and lab environments, and faster entry into technical manufacturing work.15 Maricopa Community Colleges is also expanding semiconductor education and training capacity. Arizona’s semiconductor-focused Future48 Workforce Accelerator is scheduled to open at GateWay Community College in 2027. Designed in collaboration with industry partners, the accelerator is intended to include high-tech labs, a full-size mock clean room, and more than 30 semiconductor certificate and degree programs connected to careers at companies such as TSMC, NXP Semiconductors, and Intel.16 These examples show how the semiconductor sector’s growth is beginning to reshape education and training across Arizona. In May 2026, the Arizona Commerce Authority announced NNME Southwest, a regional node of the National Network for Microelectronics Education that connects education, workforce, industry, and community partners. Maricopa Community Colleges, Grand Canyon University, industry partners, workforce organizations, and other regional participants are part of this broader effort to strengthen career pathways into semiconductor and microelectronics careers.17
Even with these efforts, the projected workforce demand exceeds the current pipeline. Arizona postsecondary institutions would need to graduate approximately 1,240 additional students in semiconductorrelated programs of study each year to meet projected sector needs. That includes certificates and degrees at all levels across computing, engineering, and technical fields. This would represent a 28 percent increase over the current number of graduates projected to enter the sector. The estimated cost of providing these additional credentials is $0.24 billion. The additional lifetime earnings associated with them are estimated at $1.59 billion, producing a net earnings gain of $1.35 billion after accounting for education costs. After adjusting for the capital intensity of the semiconductor sector, the estimated net value to Arizona’s economy is $2.63 billion.
15 Arizona State University, “About the ASU TSMC Partnership,” and Arizona State University, “ASU, TSMC Arizona launch accelerated technician training program to meet expanding semiconductor workforce needs.” 16 Maricopa Community Colleges, “Semiconductor Accelerator.” 17 Arizona Commerce Authority, “NNME Southwest,” May 2026.
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ECONOMIC VALUE OF EXPANDING ARIZONA SEMICONDUCTOR PROGRAMS
PRESENT VALUE PER EXPANDED COHORT
Additional annual credentials needed
1,240
Increase over current sector-specific production
28 percent
Cost of additional credentials
$0.24 billion
Earnings value
$1.59 billion
Net earnings gain
$1.35 billion
Economic value
$2.87 billion
Net economic value
$2.63 billion
Expanding programs will add capacity gradually because Arizona’s existing semiconductor workforce is much larger than any single graduating cohort. The state’s semiconductor industry employs more than 37,000 workers across relevant occupations. Each additional cohort matters, but the state will also need strategies that support current workers, adult learners, career changers, and students who begin in one technical pathway and later move into another. The semiconductor profile, therefore, reinforces one of this report’s central themes: Arizona’s attainment strategy must be student-centered and responsive to the needs of a changing economy. The goal is not simply to increase the number of credentials awarded. It is to help more Arizona residents enter pathways they can understand, complete credentials with labor-market value, and adapt as industries change. In semiconductor-related fields, that means clearer career navigation, stronger math and science preparation, more exposure to technical careers before and during high school, smoother transfer pathways, expanded applied training, and deeper employer participation.
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With only a few years remaining to reach the 2030 Achieve60AZ attainment goal, Arizona remains 10 percentage points short. That significant gap underscores the need to accelerate progress in postsecondary enrollment and completion.
SECTION 4
The Value Question: What Students, Employers, and the State Need the Postsecondary Education System to Demonstrate
Key Findings ■
Postsecondary education continues to deliver significant value in Arizona.
■
Ultimately, the question is whether Arizona can help more students find postsecondary pathways that are affordable, understandable, and connected to opportunity.
■
From a workforce development perspective, it is important to understand how postsecondary education functions as public infrastructure for talent creation.
■
Even amid the transformational forces impacting both the national and Arizona economies, this analysis found no evidence that the earnings advantage associated with postsecondary education in Arizona has diminished since 2014.
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Postsecondary education continues to deliver significant value in Arizona. The evidence is consistent across the previous Billions to Gain analysis, the updated 2026 modeling discussed in this report, and the national research on earnings, employment, health, and public returns. The public conversation about the value of education beyond high school, however, has changed as:
■
Students and families increasingly question whether education beyond high school is worth the cost.
■
Employers ask whether education systems are producing the skills they need.
■
State leaders seek to better connect economic development with broader opportunities for residents.
When students ask whether postsecondary education is worth it, they are really asking whether a particular program, at a particular price, with a realistic chance of completion, will lead to a better life. For some students, that pathway may be a short-term certificate. For others, it may be an associate degree, a bachelor’s degree, an advanced degree, an apprenticeship, or a series of credentials earned while working. Ultimately, the question is whether Arizona can help more students find postsecondary pathways that are affordable, understandable, and connected to opportunity.
What Students and Families Need Students and families are right to examine the costs, time, risks, and returns, and to question whether it makes sense for them. The decision to enroll in college or training after high school is often a lifechanging financial decision. It can affect work hours, family responsibilities, debt, transportation, housing, and the ability to support others. For students who would be the first in their families to earn a credential, the decision may have to be made with less access to informal guidance about programs, financial aid, transfer, and careers. For Arizona, this means that the value must be visible before enrollment, not discovered years later. Students need clear information about total cost, likely aid, time to completion, transfer options, expected earnings, debt, and local and regional employment opportunities. They also need support to understand how programs connect to actual work. A student choosing between a certificate, an associate degree, and a bachelor’s degree should not have to rely on guesswork to understand the tradeoffs.
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After all, individual students do not experience postsecondary education as an average or a projection. They experience a specific program at a specific institution, with a specific cost, completion rate, and relationship to the labor market. Students must be able to see both the pathways available to them and the ways they are likely to benefit individually from each. This is the practical meaning of demonstrating value. With this in mind, career navigation has become more important as navigating the intersection of education and labor markets has become more complex. FutureEd’s 2026 report describes a national crisis in career navigation, with too many young people lacking crucial information about available careers, local job opportunities, required skills, and the credentials that lead to those jobs. The report also notes that students without clear postsecondary plans may be more likely to leave college, delay graduation by changing majors, or spend money on courses that do not yield a strong return.18
What Employers and the State Need Ensuring that Arizona’s postsecondary system connects more residents to opportunity is consistent with enabling employers and the state to meet their needs in a rapidly changing economy. Employers need a reliable talent base. Arizona leaders need economic growth that produces broader economic mobility and stronger public revenues. Communities need more residents who can access stable work, support families, and participate in the state’s future. These needs are closely connected. This does not mean Arizona must educate every worker its employers will ever need. As noted previously, talent attraction will always be part of the state’s economic strategy and how employers fill the roles they need. Workers will continue to move to Arizona with credentials earned elsewhere, and employers will continue to recruit talent from across the country and around the world. The movement this generates contributes to the growth and economic dynamism that have shaped Arizona in recent decades. It also reinforces the importance of ensuring that Arizona’s education and training systems prepare residents to participate in the growth around them and share in the prosperity it brings to the state. Arizona’s colleges and universities are already producing substantial economic value in sectors that matter to the state. But that current production alone is not enough. Employers need stronger signals about the preparation graduates bring to the workforce and their ability to adapt as needs change. Fragmentation creates problems for students and employers. Students may struggle to understand which programs lead to which jobs, how credentials stack, whether credits transfer, and the full cost of a pathway. Employers may know they need more nurses, technicians, engineers, medical assistants, software workers, machinists, or managers, yet still lack confidence that local education and training pipelines can produce enough people with the right preparation. From a workforce development perspective, it is important to understand how postsecondary education functions as public infrastructure for talent creation. It influences who can participate in economic growth, how much income families can earn, what employers can build, and what public revenues can support.
18
Anne Kim. Future Shock: The Crisis in Career Navigation FutureEd, 2026
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Postsecondary Education Remains a Worthwhile Investment for Individuals For most students who enroll in and complete a postsecondary degree or credential, the expected gains are large enough to improve their long-term financial outlook and that of their families. An Arizona high school graduate can expect lifetime earnings of approximately $1.18 million. Estimated lifetime earnings increase to $1.37 million for individuals with some college, $1.48 million for associate degree holders, $2.25 million for bachelor’s degree holders, and $2.56 million for those with advanced degrees.
The Postsecondary Earnings Premium Compared with a high school diploma, the estimated lifetime earnings premium for postsecondary education is approximately $190,000 for individuals with some college, $307,000 for associate degree holders, $1.08 million for bachelor’s degree holders, and $1.38 million for those with advanced degrees. The persistence of the earnings premium associated with postsecondary education is also important. Even amid the transformational forces impacting both the national and Arizona economies, this analysis found no evidence that the earnings advantage associated with postsecondary education in Arizona has diminished since 2014. Arizona workforce data shows that even workers with some college—but no degree or credential—earn 15 to 20 percent more than high school graduates. Individuals with a degree earn about 75 percent more, and those with advanced degrees earn about 125 percent more. Longitudinal data from Arizona’s three public universities also show substantial earnings growth after graduation. For bachelor’s degree graduates, earnings grow by 34 to 50 percent after five years and by 58 to 98 percent after ten years.19
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Based on Belfield’s analysis of Post-Secondary Education Outcomes Survey data.
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Recommendations for a StudentCentered Talent Creation Agenda Investments Arizona makes to increase postsecondary enrollment and completion are likely to generate substantial returns. The gains modeled in this report make a practical case for sustained action and investment, with benefits that reach well beyond any single institution, employer, or sector. More students completing postsecondary credentials would strengthen family economic security, expand the state’s skilled workforce, increase tax revenues, reduce public costs, and help more communities participate in and benefit from Arizona’s growth. Central to any investments and initiatives the state undertakes should be a broad commitment to ensuring that Arizona students and adults have access to the educational supports, services, and opportunities that make postsecondary education possible, achievable, and valuable. The goal is to help more Arizonans move through education into mobility, stability, and choice. Through this lens, the following investment areas can help increase postsecondary enrollment and completion statewide, strengthen opportunities for individuals and families, and deliver meaningful economic gains for Arizona.
Arizona can invest in bolstering college readiness and strengthening the linkages between PK-12 and postsecondary education. Efforts to increase postsecondary attainment cannot begin after students graduate from high school. Arizona’s education system plays an important role in whether students are academically prepared, graduate from high school, understand their options, and can imagine themselves succeeding in postsecondary education. Stronger readiness efforts should include clear pathways from PK-12 into community colleges, universities, certificate and technical programs, apprenticeships, and other postsecondary options that lead to credentials of value. Dual enrollment remains one important strategy. When students earn college credit while in high school, they experience college-level expectations earlier, reduce the time and cost required to complete a credential, and strengthen the connection between secondary and postsecondary systems. More broadly, student-centered pathways should give families a clearer picture of the courses, milestones, advising, financial aid steps, and career options that help students prepare for life after high school. This work becomes even more important as Arizona’s youth population changes. Smaller future cohorts make each student’s successful transition from high school to postsecondary education and credential completion increasingly consequential. Arizona cannot afford to have large numbers of students leave the education pipeline without a clear next step.
Arizona can invest in reducing non-academic barriers to college enrollment and completion. Many students face barriers that are not fully captured by academic preparation. Cost, transportation, work schedules, family responsibilities, access to information, limited advising, housing, and food insecurity are among the factors that can affect whether students enroll in and complete postsecondary education. Investments to address these barriers can include stronger school counseling, expanding college and career advising, better family outreach, and greater support for community-based organizations that help students navigate the path into and through postsecondary education.
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Career navigation should also be part of this work. Students need clear information about local labor markets, credential options, transfer pathways, college costs and debt, potential earnings, work-based learning opportunities, and the skills required for different careers. This is particularly important in a state where opportunities are growing in well-established fields, such as healthcare, as well as in rapidly evolving fields, such as semiconductor-related manufacturing. A pathway can offer strong economic value and remain inaccessible to students who cannot see it, understand how to navigate it, or find the support needed to pursue it. Completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) is another practical point of intervention. FAFSA connects eligible students to federal, state, and institutional resources that can help them pay for college. Peer advising, family outreach, one-on-one assistance, and coordinated school-based FAFSA efforts can help more students take the steps required to enroll.
Arizona can invest in making postsecondary education more affordable for all students. Cost remains one of the most significant barriers students and families face when deciding whether to enroll and complete postsecondary education. Affordability extends beyond tuition and fees. It also includes the perceived and real costs of delaying full-time employment, reducing work hours, paying for transportation, buying books and materials, securing housing, and meeting family obligations while enrolled. State investments to improve affordability could include need-based grant aid, stronger support for public colleges and universities, targeted aid for adult learners, and financial assistance that supports completion. Arizona can also invest in the infrastructure that helps students access the aid already available, including FAFSA completion, financial aid advising, and clearer information about total cost, net price, and expected debt. Affordability should be connected to completion. Students who enroll but leave without earning a credential may still benefit from their postsecondary experience, but the largest gains for individuals and the state are associated with completion. Financial support should, therefore, help students not only enter postsecondary pathways but also remain enrolled long enough to finish.
Arizona can invest in increasing completion and reducing attrition. The updated analysis estimates that 25 percent of Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort will enroll in postsecondary education but leave without completing a credential or degree. That represents a significant loss of potential value for students, families, and the state. As this report shows, increasing postsecondary completion by 10 percent would generate an estimated $3 billion in social gains and nearly $1 billion in fiscal gains for a single high school cohort. Improving completion requires attention to the student experience after enrollment. Students need advising that helps them choose programs early, understand degree requirements, manage transfer, avoid unnecessary credits, and stay on track when financial or personal challenges arise. Community colleges and universities can strengthen structured pathways, improve transfer agreements, expand credit for prior learning where appropriate, and use data to identify students who may be at risk of leaving without completing a degree or credential.
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Completion should also be understood as a shared responsibility across the education continuum. High schools, community colleges, universities, workforce providers, employers, and community organizations all influence whether students persist and complete their programs. Stronger alignment among these partners can reduce the barriers students experience when moving between systems. Increasing postsecondary attainment is not an end in itself; instead, it represents a means to helping more Arizonans translate education into economic security, family stability, civic participation, and longterm opportunity.
Arizona can invest in making the value of postsecondary education clear and credible. Students and families are asking reasonable questions about the value of education after high school. Arizona can answer those questions with better information, clearer outcomes, and stronger pathways. Students need to understand what programs cost, how long they take, how often students complete them, whether credits transfer, what careers they can lead to, whether additional credentials are required, and what earnings graduates can reasonably expect. Value should be demonstrated, not assumed. This applies across the full range of postsecondary options, including short-term certificates, associate degrees, bachelor’s degrees, advanced degrees, apprenticeships, and professional credentials. Arizona’s goal should be to help students choose pathways that fit their goals and circumstances while still providing opportunities that lead to economic mobility, stability, and long-term success. Clearer information about the value of postsecondary education also helps employers, policymakers, and institutions. Employers need to understand where talent pipelines are strong and where additional partnerships or investments may be needed. Policymakers need better information about which investments improve enrollment, completion, affordability, and economic mobility. Institutions need reliable data to strengthen programs, improve student outcomes, and align resources with student needs.
Arizona can invest in flexible pathways that connect to high-demand sectors. Arizona’s sector profiles show why postsecondary attainment and workforce alignment should be connected. Healthcare and semiconductor-related manufacturing both offer strong returns to postsecondary education and face significant demand for skilled workers. Yet the pathways into those sectors differ. Healthcare is a large, durable sector with relatively well-established credentials, licensing structures, and career advancement pathways. The semiconductor sector is fast-growing, with evolving skill needs, specialized technical requirements, and credentials spanning computing, engineering, and technical programs. Aligning education and workforce needs should not be limited to producing more credentials. Arizona needs pathways that students can understand, enter, afford, complete, and use to build meaningful careers. That means clearer career maps, stronger math and science preparation, more applied learning opportunities, better transfer pathways, expanded capacity for clinical and work-based learning, and stackable credentials that allow workers to continue building their skills and advancing over time.
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Arizona can invest in stronger public-private partnerships that increase employer buy-in. Employers are central to Arizona’s talent-development agenda. They can help clarify skill needs, support internships and apprenticeships, invest in equipment and training environments, provide tuition assistance, participate in program design, offer work-based learning, and support upskilling for current workers. These partnerships are especially important in sectors where technology, licensure requirements, equipment, and workplace expectations change quickly. Arizona should also approach employer needs realistically. Employers will continue to recruit talent from outside the state, and that will remain part of Arizona’s economic strength. The challenge is to make Arizona’s education and training systems responsive and valuable enough to encourage more employers to invest in developing talent within the state. Stronger employer partnerships can help students understand where programs lead and help institutions adjust more quickly to changing labor market needs. Public-private partnerships can also help connect postsecondary attainment to economic development. Arizona has attracted significant investment in sectors that require workers with education and training beyond high school. That investment can produce broader benefits when more Arizona residents have the preparation, guidance, and support needed to participate in those opportunities.
Arizona can invest in a student-centered strategy to attract, retain, and develop talent. Arizona’s attainment rate is shaped by residents who earn credentials through Arizona institutions, students who come to Arizona for postsecondary education and remain after graduation, and adults who move to Arizona with credentials already completed. Each pathway contributes to the state’s talent base. A strong attainment strategy should embrace all three. Arizona should remain a state that attracts skilled workers and postsecondary students from elsewhere while also creating opportunities for more residents to earn valuable credentials. Talent attraction can help meet immediate workforce needs, while increasing postsecondary attainment among Arizona residents can help ensure that the state’s economic growth creates broader opportunities for individuals, families, and communities.
For a list of references and the source tables used in the economic modeling for this report, please visit helios.org.
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