Nail November 2013 pdf

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THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President James Franks Vice President Michael Dillon Secretary/Treasurer Trey Lewis Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Pat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 8 GBC hosts SPOOKtacular green home tour

A Halloween eve tour of a green home remodel was the perfect setting for the Green Building Council’s last meeting of the year.

9 Casino Night at the HBAMT a winner!

The third annual event, sponsored by Trus Joist, proved to be another exciting, fun-filled evening for the association and its members.

13 Last stop of the year for the Bass Trail Tournament

The Piedmont Natural Gas Bass Trail Tournaments wrapped up another successful year as the last 2013 round was held in Guntersville, Alabama.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 November Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: The third annual HBAMT Casino Night, sponsored by Turs Joist, was held last month.

(More on page nine of this issue.)

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news&info

HBAMT President Jimmy Franks talks with City of Franklin Alderman Beverly Burger.

Burger was a special guest at the association’s Board of Director’s meeting last month and spoke with attendees about local building issues.

Index shows housing markets back to normal in 52 metros

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ousing markets in 52 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide have now returned to or exceeded their pre-recessionary levels of activity, according to the newly minted National Association of Home Builders/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), released today. The index’s nationwide score of .85 indicates that, based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide housing market is running at 85 percent of normal activity.

Baton Rouge, La., tops the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.41 – or 41 percent better than its last normal market level.

Other major metros at the top of the list include Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, as well as Harrisburg, Pa. – all of whose LMI scores indicate that their housing markets now exceed previous norms.

Looking at smaller metros, both Odessa and Midland, Texas, boast LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their housing markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Casper, Wyo.; Bismarck, N.D.; and Florence, Ala., respectively.

“This index helps illustrate how far the U.S. housing recovery has come, and also how much further it has to go as we continue to face some significant headwinds in terms of credit availability, rising costs for lots and labor, and

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uncertainties regarding Washington policymaking,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. The LMI shifts the focus from identifying markets that have recently begun to recover, which was the aim of a previous gauge known as the Improving Markets Index, to identifying those areas that are now approaching and exceeding their previous normal levels of activity. More than 350 metro areas are scored by taking their average permit, price and employment numbers for the past 12 months and dividing each by their annual average over the last period of normal growth. For single-family permits and home prices, 2000-2003 is used as the last normal period, and for employment, 2007 is the base comparison. The three components are then averaged to provide an overall score for each market; a national score is calculated based on national measures of the three metrics. An index value above one indicates that a market has advanced beyond its previous normal level of economic activity.

“Smaller metros are leading the way to a housing recovery, accounting for 43 of the top 50 markets on the current LMI,” observed NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is very much in keeping with the results of our previous index for improving markets, and is an indication of the extent to which local economic conditions dictate the strength of individual housing markets.” n

Brian Copeland (standing), Chief of Broker Services for Village Real Estate and a top producing REALTOR in the Greater Nashville area, was the guest speaker at the Sales and Marketing Council’s October meeting. In 2014 Copeland will assume the post as one of nine presidential liaisons for the 1M member National Association of REALTORS.

Metro/Nashville Chapter President John Whitaker thanks Craig Olson from SkyeTec for speaking at the chapter’s October meeting at the HBAMT. Olson talked about how to improve indoor air quality and prevent moisture intrusion.

Housing recovery picks up despite persistent headwinds

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ith home prices and household formations rising and household balance sheets healing, the ongoing housing recovery is expected to gain momentum next year even as several challenges remain, according to economists who participated in the NAHB’s Fall 2013 Construction Forecast Webinar.

“The cards are in play for a decent and fairly strong recovery in 2014 and particularly in 2015,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “From the standpoint of GDP growth, housing has been a plus, growing at two, three and four times the rate of the rest of the economy in recent quarters.”

Helping to spur the housing rebound was a double-digit increase in home prices over the past year, driven in part by tight inventories of new and existing homes for sale and gradual gains in employment.

“We expect to see price increases moderate in the next few years as we see additional inventory on the market and investors back away as the bargains disappear,” said Crowe.

Another bright spot is rising household formations that were delayed during the downturn as college graduates and young professionals were forced to move back in with their parents or double up as roommates. At the height of the housing boom, the U.S. was producing 1.4 million additional households every year. That figure plunged to 500,000 during the depth of the recession and today is now back up to 700,000.

Meanwhile, households across the nation have been increasing their savings and shedding debt. “They’ve corrected a lot of excesses and feel more comfortable about moving forward,” Crowe said, noting that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows that the percentage of consumers who believe that now is a good time to buy a house is back up to levels last seen near the housing boom.

However, Crowe cited several headwinds that are impeding the recovery.

“Credit conditions are much tighter now, builders are increasingly facing labor shortages, lot supplies are tight, building material prices are rising, and inaccurate appraisals are hurting home sales” he said.

“You can’t charge more than you can get an appraisal for,” Crowe added. “Even though we are seeing price increases in labor, land and materials, 36 percent of builder recently said they had lost at least one sale over appraisals coming in below the cost of production.”

A solid outlook NAHB is forecasting 924,000 total housing starts in 2013, up 18 percent from 783,000 units last year. Single-family pro-

duction is expected to rise 17 percent this year to 629,000 units, jump an additional 31 percent next year to 826,000 and surpass the 1 million mark in 2015.

NAHB is projecting that multifamily starts will increase 20 percent in 2013 to 296,000 units and rise an additional 10 percent to 326,000 units next year, which Crowe characterized as a normal level of multifamily production.

Meanwhile, residential remodeling has returned to previously normal levels of the early 2000s and remodeling activity is expected to register a modest gain this year over 2012.

“Our Remodeling Market Index has been above 50 for three of the last four quarters, indicating that remodelers feel things are going better,” said Crowe. “Remodeling did not fall as much, so it does not have as much ground to make up.”

Dodging a bullet Regarding the uncertainties emanating out of Washington over the government shutdown and the impending Oct. 17 deadline when the government will run out of cash to pay its bills, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, expressed optimism that Congress will move quickly to resolve these critical issues.

“I truly anticipate that lawmakers will get it together, but that is definitely a challenge to my economic outlook,” said Zandi. “If policymakers can’t get it together by Oct. 17, we’re toast, and I

think we are going into recession.”

Assuming the government meets these challenges, Zandi cited three reasons for optimism moving forward. First, the fiscal drag that is weighing heavily on the economy in the form of tax increases and government spending cuts that are now being implemented will continue to fade in the coming years. This fiscal drag will shave 1.5 percent off of GDP growth this year, about 0.7 percent next year and gradually

fall to zero by 2016, he said.

Second, Zandi noted that the “private economy has done a marvelous job of reducing leverage and getting their balance sheets in order. American companies are in very good shape and they will do well going forward, with continued strong export growth.

That will be a strong source of economic growth for a long time to come.”

Finally, Zandi said that demographics make a compelling argument for a strengthening housing market.

All markets are local Looking beneath the national numbers, Robert Denk, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, noted a range of conditions across the country and differences among the states in the amount of distress suffered during the recession and the headway that is being made in recovery.

Housing nationwide bottomed out at an average of 27 percent of normal production in early 2009.The hardest hit states where production soared to unsustainable levels during the boom years -- California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida -- bottomed out at 10 percent to 20 percent of normal when the housing bubble burst. In sharp contrast, better states that did not experience a huge production run up during the boom declined to 50 percent of normal production.

“We’ve now gotten past the point where we are digging out of holes and repairing the carnage of the housing markets,” said Denk. “It’s no longer about the boom and the bust. Now it’s about the underlying [state and regional] economies and how that is supporting the housing recovery.”

For example, while Texas and Florida have roughly the same number of mortgages, Florida had nearly five times as many foreclosures during the height of the downturn and today has less than double.

Now that housing has entered a new stage in the healing process, local economic conditions are dictating the pace of recovery.

“That’s why the bubble states are no longer in the bottom tier and have moved ahead of the industrial Midwest,” he said.

The gradual and steady housing recovery now underway across the land will bring nationwide housing starts to 71 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of next year and 93 percent of normal by the end of 2015, Denk said.

Leading the way will be oil and gas producing states Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming and Montana; and Iowa, supported by agricultural commodities.

In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2015 the top 20 percent of states will be back to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 84 percent. n November, 2013

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GBC SPOOKtacular guests enter the Daugherty house, a “green” remodeling project being overseen by E3 Innovate in Joelton, Tennessee.

GBC SPOOKtacular tour

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rik Daugherty, owner of E3 INNOVATE, and his wife Kajsa, welcomed Green Building Council members and guests into their family home, a standard one-story house they’re converting into a highly efficient “green” home that will seek

ENERGY STAR and LEED-H national certification. The tour, held the evening before Halloween, was an informative look at a one-of-a-kind transformation with dozens of unique challenges, approaches, and details.

And with great food and beer from Wazoo

the event was a perfect way to kick off a fun-filled holiday weekend!.

Special thanks to the event sponsors: All-American Pest Control; Certain Teed; E3 Innovate, Hermitage Lighting Gallery, Pella Window & Door; and Precision Air. n

Rick Youmans, Pella Window.

Jackie Beeler, Precision Air.

Jim Bilbrey, All-American Pest Control.

Chris Leming, Certain Teed.

John Whitaker, Hermitage Lighting.

Erik Daugherty, E3 Innovate.

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Casino Night a winner!

Third annual Casino Night draws all the association’s high rollers to the HBAMT for a fun night sponsored by Trus Joist.

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he HBAMT’s third annual Casino Night, sponsored by Trus Joist, was a big success for the association as members took part in exciting, high stakes games of blackjack, poker and craps.

Special thanks to all the members who donated the terrific prizes for the event and helped ensure the spirited competition everyone’s come to expect.

And a big, big thanks to event sponsors Trus Joist, and to our open bar sponsors, Builders First Source. Hope to see you back next year! n At right, the blackjack tables and other amenities are put in place during preparations for the big night at the HBAMT!.

High rolling during Casino Night with HBAMT President Jimmy Franks and David McGowan.

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Brandon Wise and Charlotte Fischer, counting chips.

Eric Parks surveys the Blackjack tables.

Blackjack action with Meagan and Jordan Clark.

Charlotte Fischer tends the open bar.

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Marty Maitland and Mike Dillon at the wine tasting table.

John and Michele Ganschow; Trus Joist. Keri and Jim Long, Builders First Source.

Jason Donoho checks for a winning ticket.

Trey Lewis wins, and takes for a ride, the coveted Regions bicycle.

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So you think you make the world’s best chili (or soup)? Then put your chili-pot where your mouth isl

Tues, Nov 12th

All chill/soup must be made from scratch at the HBAMT (you may cut and pack ingredients prior to arriving). Each team will be given an 8’x8’ space/table.

Each chef must supply all their ingredients & cooking source. Chef’s can start cooking at 10 AM and must be ready for judging by 4 PM. You must cook at least 2 gallons.

Three (3) celebrity chefs will determine the winners and present trophies for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place. At 5 PM fellow members will begin tasting your creations & casting secret ballots to vote for the winner of the “Memhers Choice” award.

Complete this form and return it to (fax) 377-1077 or (email) cnicley@hbamt.net to register*.

Your name: ________________________________________ Company: _________________________________________ Email: ___________________ Phone: ___________________ Team name: ________________________________________ Past team names have included“Road Kill Chili Team,” “Heartburn Connection” and the “Rootin’ Tootin’ Chili Peppers.”

*All team entries and chefs must be members of your company or the HBAMT. Companies may enter multiple teams and are allowed to merge with other HBAMT members to form teams.

Sponsored by:

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Tournament finale 2013 Piedmont Natural Gas Tournaments a wrap.

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he final Piedmont Natural Gas Fishing Tournament of the year was held September 30 at Goose Pond Marina in Guntersville, Alabama.

Joe Haas and Rusty Rust of the Joe Haas Construction boat reeled in first place honors for the day with a weigh-in totaling 18.22 lbs.

The American Heating & Cooling team of Kevin Israel and Todd Spann took home second place after weighing in with 16.33 lbs.

And the Francescon Constrction team of Jay Catignani and David Francescon posted 14.52 lbs worth of catches to secure third place.

Jerry Bell and Rob Hall of Piedmont Natural Gas took home the “Big Fish” award for a catch tipping the scales at 6.08 lbs.

Thanks to all the fishermen who participated in this year’s tournaments. And a BIG thanks to Piedmont Natural Gas for sponsoring the year-long event. We hope to see everyone back in 2014! n

Company Boat

Fisherman

Wt.

Joe Haas Construction

Joe Haas & Rusty Rust

18.22

American Heating & Cooling

Kevin Israel & Todd Spann

16.33

Francescon Construction

Jay Catignani & David Francescon

14.52

Piedmont Natural Gas

Danny Barksdale & Bill Ingham

14.44

CPS Land, LLC

Danny Hankins & Mark Snead

10.93

Piedmont Natural Gas

Kevin Dennis & Jasper Hatcher

10.53

Piedmont Natural Gas

Jerry Deal & Kevin Tidwell

10.10

Piedmont Natural Gas

Jerry Bell & Rob Hall

9.98

Piedmont Natural Gas

Danny Jenkins & Mark Reavis

7.74

Inter-Vac Systems

Jody Smith & Randy Summers

6.87

Piedmont Natural Gas

Walter Hutchinson & Jeff Neeley

5.15

Piedmont Natural Gas

George Brown & Milton Henderson

3.18

Rusty Rust and Joe Haas with their first place plaques and prize winnings.

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At left: Todd Spann (left) and Kevin Israel (right) with their second place winnings following the tournament.

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SPIKE REPORT Life Spikes

Fourteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2013.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 818 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 654 Jim Fischer 566 Terry Cobb 565 John Whitaker 359 James Carbine 329 Jennifer Earnest 308 Dan Stern 306 Bruce Hancock 297 Kevin Hale 285 Tonya Jones 271 Reese Smith III 259 David Crane 228 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 215 Michael Apple 185 Cyril Evers 181 Davis Lamb 175

Jackson Downey 174 Jim McLean 164 Louise Stark 163 Tim Ferguson 159 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 Tonya Alexander 125 Steve Hewlett 119 Tom Kelley 115 Trey Lewis 114 Sam Carbine 109 Carmen Butner 103 Johnny Watson 101 Bill Kottas 97 Dave McGowan 95 Lee Santiago 95 James Franks 91 B.J. Hanson 91 Kim Dykes 89 Duane Vanhook 80 Jordan Clark 79 Erin Richardson 76 Randy Parker 75 Jeff Slusher 70 John Baugh 68 Don Bruce 62 Jim Ford, Jr. 62 Hill McAlister 57 Wiggs Thompson 55 Joe Morgan 54 Gerald Bucy 53 John Broderick 52 Beth Sturm 50 Al Davis 47 David Hughes 47 Sheila Rawlings 47

Bernie Laine 46 Greg Langley 46 Benny Sullivan 46 Kim Nichols 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Andrew Neuman 44 Kay Russell 44 Lori Fisk-Conners 39 Peggy Krebs 39 John Ganschow 37 Chuck Clarkson 36 Andy Wyatt 36 Brad Butler 35 David Lippe 35 Al Hacker 34 Ray Edwards 32 Dan Strebel 32 Steve Wheeley 30 Alvin Basel 29 Matt Burnett 25 Spikes Christina Cunningham 20 Jess Dillon 16 Michael Dillon 17 Frank Miller 17 Marty Maitland 15 Tracy Lomax 14 Don Mahone 14 Frank Tyree 11 Pam Smith 10 Don Alexander 7 Kelvey Benward 7

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NOVEMBER Calendar Sunday

Monday

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Thursday

Friday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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Chili Cook-Off Sponsored by Regions

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Dickson County Chapter meeting Remodelers Council meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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Thanksgiving Day

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5 Sales & Marketing Council meeting

Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: Monday, November 18.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Monday, November 25 Topic: “Legislative Update,” with John Sheley, Executive Vice-President, HBAMT. Price*: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304

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ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price*: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 *Builders free pending sponsorship.

COUNCILS CUSTOM BUILDERS COUNCIL The CBC meets on the second Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311

GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: Wednesday, January 29.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Don Mahone.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.

Next meeting: Monday, November 18, at 5:00 PM. Location: Hermitage Lighting Gallery.

Topic: “Codes Update,” with special guest Terry Cobb, Metro Codes Director.

Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301 MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Trey Lewis.

The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, November 7.

Topic: “Goal Setting for 2014,” with James Yates, owner/ broker, Red Realty.

Price: Free for SMC members thanks to Wells Fargo ($10 w/o RSVP); $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

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