The Nail, March 2019

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Justin Hicks Vice President David Hughes Secretary/Treasurer Steve Shalibo Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 11 Parade builders announced, construction underway

Builders participating in the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes were announced last month.

Construction has begun on all the homes at this year’s site at The Grove in College Grove, Tenn.

12 Turning Back Time with the Metro/Nashville Chapter

The Metro/Nashville Chapter hosted an 80s themed mix-&-mingle last month at the Diskin Cider bar and brewery in Nashville.

15 Promotional opportunities at the 2019 Parade

Sign up now to participate as an advertiser or exhibitor at the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove.

DEPARTMENTS

Advertise in

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8 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 March Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

ON THE COVER: Construction is underway at The Grove as builders prepare for this year’s Parade.

More details on page eleven.

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news&info

Pending home sales bounce back in January

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fter hitting to its lowest level since early 2014 last month, pending home sales rebounded in January.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI increased 4.6% from 98.7 in December to 103.2 in January, but was still 2.3% below the level one year ago, marking the thirteenth straight month of declines on an annualized basis.

NAR described the change in Federal

With the falling mortgage rates, NAR expected more homebuyers would return to the market to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.

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Reserve policy and the end of government shutdown provided a boost to the housing market. With the falling mortgage rates, NAR expected more homebuyers would return to the market to take the advantage of lower borrowing cost and bring an expected increase to pending home sales.

Regionally, the January PHSI rose in all four regions, ranging from an increase of 0.3% in the West to 8.9% in the South. Yearover-year, the PHSI fell in the Midwest, South and West by 0.3%, 3.1% and 10.1% respectively, while rose 7.6% in the Northeast.

Though existing sales continued to drop in January, builder confidence rose by four points in February due to the gradual decline in mortgage rates and solid job market, indicating builders remained positive for the upcoming months. n

Rising consumer confidence boosts builder sentiment

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uilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to 62 in February, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

The ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment. In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.

February marked the second consecutive month in which all the HMI indices posted gains. The index measuring current sales conditions rose three points to 67, the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased five points to 68 and the metric charting buyer traffic moved up four points to 48.

Builder confidence levels moved up in tandem with growing consumer confidence and falling interest rates. The five-point jump on the six-month sales expectation for the HMI is due to mortgage interest rates dropping from about 5 percent in November to 4.4 percent this week. However, affordability remains a critical issue. Rising costs stemming from excessive regulations, a dearth of buildable lots, a persistent labor shortage and tariffs on lumber and other key building materials continue to make it increasingly difficult to produce housing at affordable price points.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/

Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South posted a one-point gain to 63 while the Northeast dropped two points to 43. The Midwest and West each remained unchanged at 52 and 67, respectively.

The HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/ hmi. n Multi-family builder and developer confidence weakens slightly Builder and developer confidence in the multifamily market weakened slightly in the fourth quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Multifamily Market Survey. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) fell one point from the previous quarter to 47, with a number below 50 indicating that more builders report market conditions are getting worse than improving. Meanwhile, the Multifamily Vacancy Index (MVI) edged down two points to 45,

Housing starts drop in december

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ith the delayed December data now published, the pace of single-family starts declined for the fourth consecutive month as housing affordability concerns weighed on the home construction market at the end of 2018. However, home building posted gains in 2018 relative to 2017.

Total single-family and apartment construction starts were up 3.6% for the year, according to the joint data release from the Census Bureau and HUD. The December rate of single-family starts decreased 6.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 758,000. The steady decline for the pace of single-family construction mirrors the notable weakness

for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), now registering a score of 62.

Builders are concerned about housing affordability conditions due, in part, to increasing construction and regulatory costs. However, mortgage interest rate declines over recent months should provide some support for the market in the coming months, as indicated by recent stabilization in the HMI. Nonetheless, a 10-year low for housing affordability conditions may put a stop to the two-year trend for rising homeownership.

Despite the weak second half of the year, single-family starts were 2.8% higher relative to 2017. Single-family permits, a useful indicator of future construction activity, were down

indicating a slight improvement in apartment vacancies.

The MPI is a composite index consisting of three key components of the multifamily market: the production of low-rent units, market-rate rental units, and for-sale units (condominiums). All three components settled below 50 in the fourth quarter: low-rent units fell 11 points to 48, while the component measuring market rate rental units increased three points to 49 and the component measuring for-sale units rose five points to 44.

The MVI measures the multifamily housing industry’s perception of existing apartment vacancies. It is a weighted average of current occupancy indexes for class A, B, and C multifamily units, and can vary from 0 to 100, where any number under 50 indicates more property managers believe vacancies are decreasing than increasing. With a reading of 45, the MVI improved two points from the previous quarter.

The weaker MPI reading in the fourth quarter is in line with NAHB’s multifamily forecast, which projects a leveling off and slight dip in the production of multifamily units for 2019.

For data tables on the MPI and MVI, please visit www.nahb.org/mms. For more information on the NAHB Multifamily program, please visit the NAHB Multifamily page. n

in December but registered a 4% gain for 2018.

With respect to housing’s economic impact, 53% of homes under construction in December were multifamily (610,000). The current count of apartments under construction is flat compared to a year ago. In December, there were 534,000 single-family units under construction (a cycle high, despite recent weakness), a gain of more than 7% from this time in 2018.

Regional data show – on a total year basis – mixed conditions. Single-family construction was down 6% for the year in the Midwest. Single-family starts were up in the larger building regions of the South (2%) and the West (9%).

Single-family construction was 3% higher in the Northeast (despite new home sales declines) due to relative strength in the not-for-sale, custom market in that region. n March, 2019

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2019 Parade builders announced

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uilders participating in the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes™ were announced last month by the HBAMT. The Grove, host and developer of the event, has assembled an elite team of construction professionals:

Hatcliff Construction, who will be working with Southern Living on a Southern Living Showcase Home l Legend Homes l Luna Custom Homes l Stonegate Homes l Trace Construction l

“We are thrilled to be showcasing the innovative designs and superior craftsmanship this team of builders brings to the event,” says David Crane, Parade of Homes™ chairman. “With a mix of first-time Parade builders and past Parade award winners, they all will be taking this opportunity to show the public their unique ideas and the latest trends in home building and design.”

Stonegate Homes returns for their second

Parade following an award-winning entry in the 2017 event. Legend Homes makes their fifth Parade appearance and is a past “Best of Show” winner in both the 2011 and 2017 events. Hatcliff Construction, Luna Custom Homes and Trace Construction are first-time Parade builders.

“The builders are in the process of selecting the designers who will work with them to create amazing and awe-inspiring show homes,” says Crane. “It’s going to be a fantastic event.”

The highly anticipated custom home tour will open Saturday, October 12 and run daily through Sunday, October 27 at The Grove, a scenic gated community in College Grove, Tenn.

For more information about the Parade, please visit www.theparadeofhomes.org, www. hbamt.org, or www.groveliving.com.

complete with Williamson County’s only Greg Norman Signature Golf Course and the most comprehensive amenity and recreation package of any community in the region. The Grove features luxury, artisan-built, estate homes that have been created from a rich, thoughtful palette of classic architectural styles. Each possesses defined characteristics and signature elements and are set into an impressive landscape dotted with streams, old farm lands and rolling, wooded hills. Homes range from the low $900,000s – over $9 million. Homesites start at $165,000. n

About The Grove Located minutes from historic Franklin, Tenn., The Grove is a 1,100-acre, private, gated community offering a distinctive club lifestyle, March, 2019

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“Turning Back Time” Mix-&-Mingle!

80s themed event draws a crowd at Diskin Cider.

Big crowd at the Diskin Cider for the Metro/Nashville Chapter’s mix-&-mingle.

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BAMT members had a rockin’ time last month at the Metro/Nashville Chapter’s “Turning Back Time” Mix-&Mingle! A big crowd of the association’s top fun-seekers filled the Diskin Cider bar and brewery February 28 for the chapter’s 80s themed event.

Special thanks to event sponsors Guardian Home Technologies and Landmark Homes!

David Beard, Tammy Chambers, Chapter President Tonya Esquibel, Jeffrey Caruth, and Jackie Hurtis.

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James Ward and Austin Whitmer.

Tyler Leuck, Michelle Fox, and David Crane.

Jody Derrick, Rick Olszewski, and Matt Dryden.

Margaret Tolbert, Katelyn Fulks, and Lindsey Elliott.

Donna Wisniewski and Lauren Elder.

Brad Young and Joe Stocker.

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Sam McAtee and Jeremy McCulley.

David Beard and David Wilbanks.

Lindsey Elliott and Natalie Rooks.

Patrick Hutchinson and Danny Campbell.

Keith Adams and Paul Geddes.

Phil Smith, David Hughes and Chad Ritter.

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James Hardie Parade of Homes The 2019 Parade of Homes at The Grove

ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT

If your company depends on new homes or related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove!

Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.

THE PARADE PLAN BOOK

THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH

At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book.

Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhib­it center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!

The Plan Book is a tremen­dous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over!

Plan Book Advertising Rates Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) *Page One 7.5”x10” 8.75”x11.25” (Bleed) *Inside Front Cover Inside Back Cover *Double Truck Back Cover

$800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,100 $2,300 $2,840 $3,250

*specialty locations sold.

Email jargo@hbamt.net for ad specs and availability.

It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your show­room the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys.

Exhibit Booth Price? $750 Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-pop­ping kiosks and marketing publications!

2019 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM

Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Fax: 615/377-1077 | Email: jargo@hbamt.org

PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2019 Plan Book:

r Half Page

r Full Page

r Page One

r Inside Front

r Inside Back

r Back Cover

r 2-Page Spread

EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2019 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Cell: _________________________________________ Email: _________________________________________ Total amount being paid: $___________ Credit Card _______________________ Credit Card # _______________________________ Exp. ____________ Credit Card V-Code _______________

The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip.

It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.

Signature ____________________________________________________________________________________ 16 The NAIL

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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb 206 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177 Jim McLean 164

Twenty-one SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of January 31, 2019.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 767 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 558 Trey Lewis 428 James Carbine 393 Jennifer Earnest 366 David Crane 317 Kevin Hale 300 Jimmy Franks 277 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219

Life Spikes Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Tonya Esquibel 137 Sam Carbine 136 Randall Smith 126 B.J. Hanson 119 Steve Hewlett 119 Jordan Clark 118 Carmen Ryan 117 Kevin Woodward 116 John Zelenak 113 Helmet Mundt 109 Dave McGowan 108 David Hughes 106 Edsel Charles 105 Wiggs Thompson 103 Duane Vanhook 100 Michael Dillon 98 Justin Hicks 94 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Joe Morgan 83 Christina Cunningham 82 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 72 Jeff Slusher 70 Lori Fisk-Conners 69

Keith Porterfield 69 Don Bruce 62 Sam Henley 62 Eugene James 60 Marty Maitland 60 Ron Schroeder 60 Nick Wisniewski 56 John Broderick 55 Jody Derrick 53 Derenda Sircy 51 Andrew Neuman 50 John Ganschow 49 Steve Shalibo 45 Phillip Smith 45 Ashley Crews 44 Bryan Edwards 44 Ricky Scott 43 Rick Olszewski 40 Don Mahone 30 Frank Tyree 29 Christina James 27 Frank Jones 26 Brandon Rickman 25 Spikes John Burns 16 Nicole Bird 15 Joe Dalton 14 Perry Pratt 14 Kim Carman 12 Rob Pease 11 Tammy Chambers 10 Will Montgomery 10

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MARCH Calendar Sunday

Monday

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Spring Showcase House Dedication Open House

Thursday

Friday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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Dickson County Chapter meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: Tuesday, March 19.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: Meeting FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, March 28.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: to be determined.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jeffrey Caruth.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, March 7, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: “Carry Your Brand Anywhere,” with Lisa Underwood and Margaret Tolbert.

SMC members free thanks to US Bank; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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