The Nail, July 2022

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 1

2 The NAIL

l July,

2022

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 3

THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Nick Wisniewski Vice President Brandon Rickman Secretary/Treasurer Jim Hysen Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

4 The NAIL

l July,

2022

FEATURES 8 2022 Golf Tournament Sponsorships now available

The James Hardie Golf Tournament is for Thursday, August 18th in Spring Hill! Secure your sponsorship today!

9 HBAMT Remodeler Builder Networking Event

The Remodelers Council held a special networking and membership grill-out event at the HBAMT last month.

11 Membership Trip this September

The HBAMT has a Membership Trip to Costa Mujeres, Mexico scheduled for September.

Register now to take part in all the fun!

13 2022 Parade advertising and exhibiting opportunities

Advertise in

THE

NAIL For advertising rates and information, or to secure your ad, please email jargo@hbamt.org with your questions and requests.

The Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes returns this fall to Rosebrooke. Secure your planbook space today!

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 July Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: Construction job oepning reach record high in April. See page seven for more details.

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 5

NEWS&INFO

New home sales increase in May before Fed June rate rise

A

fter posting four consecutive monthly declines on rising mortgage rates and worsening affordability conditions, new home sales posted a solid gain in May as some buyers rushed into the market in advance of the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate hike.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in May increased 10.7% to a 696,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised reading in April according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. New home sales are down 10.6% in 2022 on a year-to-date basis.

“Though new home sales registered a solid increase in May, we expect sales to decline in June following the Fed’s action to significantly raise interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation,” said Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “High construction costs and rising mortgage rates are pricing many buyers out of the market. Only 10% of new homes were priced below $300,000 in May, compared to 23% a year ago.”

Existing home inventory remains very tight and this supports demand for new construction.

6 The NAIL

l July,

2022

“While sales were up in May, the 696,000 pace was 5.9% lower than a year ago and new home sales on a year-to-date basis are down 10.6% thus far in 2022,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, the months’ supply measure is elevated at 7.7, but existing home inventory remains very tight and this supports demand for new construction.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the May reading of 696,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory remained elevated at a 7.7 months’ supply, up 42.6% over last year, with 444,000 available for sale. However, only 8.3% of new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy.

The remaining have not started construction (25.9%) or are currently under construction.

The median sales price dipped to $449,000 in May from $454,700 in April but is up 15% compared to a year ago, due primarily to higher construction and development costs, including materials.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 3.8% in the Northeast, 21.7% in the Midwest, 12.3% in the South and 2.2% in the West. n

Single-family starts down in May, builder confidence weakens

R

ising interest rates and ongoing building material supply chain disruptions that raise construction costs continue to act as significant headwinds on the housing market.

Overall housing starts fell 14.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million units in May from an upwardly revised reading the previous month, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The May reading of 1.55 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 9.2% to a 1.05 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector decreased 23.7% to an annualized 498,000 pace.

“Single-family home building is slowing as the impacts of higher interest rates reduce housing affordability,” said Jerry Konter, NAHB chairman. “Moreover, construction costs continue to rise, with residential construction materials up 19% from a year ago. As the market weakens due to cyclical factors, the long-term housing deficit will persist and continue to frustrate prospective renters and home buyers.”

“In further signs that the housing market is weakening, single-family permits are down 2.5% on a year-to-date basis and home builder confidence has declined for the last six months,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Due to the acceleration in construction activity in recent quarters, housing completions are rising.

Single-family completions were up 8.5% in May

2022 compared to May 2021 as inventories rise.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 2.1% higher in the Northeast, 1.2% higher in the Midwest, 12.9% higher in the South and 4.3% higher in the West.

Overall permits decreased 7.0% to a 1.70 million unit annualized rate in May. Single-family permits decreased 5.5% to a 1.05 million unit rate. This is the lowest pace for single-family permits since July 2020. Multifamily permits decreased 9.4% to an annualized 647,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-todate basis, permits are 8.3% lower in the Northeast, 5.2% higher in the Midwest, 4.6% higher in the South and 1.6% higher in the West.

Builder confidence down Rising inflation and higher mortgage rates are slowing traffic of prospective home buyers and putting a damper on builder sentiment. In a troubling sign for the housing market, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its sixth straight monthly decline in June, falling two points to 67, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Six consecutive monthly declines for the HMI is a clear sign of a slowing housing market in a high inflation, slow growth economic environment,” said Konter. “The entry-level market has been particularly affected by declines for housing affordability and builders are adopting a more cautious stance as demand softens with higher mortgage rates.

Record number of construction job openings

T

he count of open construction jobs jumped to a record-high 449,000 unfilled positions in April, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the highest measure in the history of the data series (going back to late 2000).

The construction labor market remains tight, as the industry sees a rising number of job openings year-over-year. The housing market remains underbuilt and requires additional labor,

lots, and lumber and building materials to add inventory. However, the market is now slowing due to higher interest rates and this will likely be reflected in construction labor market data in the months ahead.

Construction sector layoffs remained low at a 1.5% rate in April. In April 2020, the layoff rate was 10.8%. Since that time however, the sector layoff rate has been below 3%, with the exception of February 2021 due to weather effects.

The rate trended lower in 2021 due to the skilled

Government officials need to enact policies that will support the supply-side of the housing market as costs continue to climb.”

“The housing market faces both demand-side and supply-side challenges,” said Dietz. “Residential construction material costs are up 19% year-over-year with cost increases for a variety of building inputs, except for lumber, which has experienced recent declines due to a housing slowdown. On the demand-side of the market, the increase for mortgage rates for the first half of 2022 has priced out a significant number of prospective home buyers, as reflected by the decline for the traffic measure of the HMI.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI indices posted declines in June. The component charting traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 48, marking the first time this gauge has fallen below the breakeven level of 50 since June 2020. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 77 and the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 61.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 71, the Midwest dropped six points to 56, the South fell two points to 78 and the West posted a nine-point decline to 74. n

labor shortage and remains low in 2022 as the market remains tight.

The job openings rate in construction remained elevated at 5.6% in April, with 449,000 open positions in the sector. This is significantly higher than the 329,000 count recorded a year ago. n

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 7

2022 Golf Tournament Sponsorships!

The 11th Annual HBAMT Golf Tournament is set for Thursday, August 18 at the Towhee Club in Spring Hill. Sign up now to sponsor at one of the following levels! selection

sponsorship level

price/# available benefits

TITLE SPONSOR

$10,000 1 available

l l l l

Company name featured as headliner on all materials Booth at registration, awards wrap-up & course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Signage provided

o

Lunch Sponsor

$5,000 1 available

l l l l

Company name featured as Lunch Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Four (4) tickets to Wrap-up

o

Breakfast Sponsor

$3,000 1 available

l l l l l

Company name featured as Breakfast Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Your booth will be breakfast ticket pick up point for all golfers Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Two (2) tickets to Wrap-up

o

Platinum

$1,200 5 available 3 Available

l l l l l

Company name featured on all materials Booth at wrap-up & course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole Signage at tournament provided Two (2) tickets to wrap-up

o

$1,500 9 available 4 available

l l l l l

Single hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole Signage at tournament provided Opportunity to hand out information & goodies Two (2) tickets to wrap-up

o

Silver Sponsor

$600

l Hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds l Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole l Two (2) tickets to wrap-up

Hospitality Cart

$2,000 2 available

l Hospitality cart with your name on it l Opportunity to ride cart in morning & afternoon rounds moving freely within the course handing out beverages & goodies

Wrap-up Party Sponsor

$3,000 1 available

l l l l

Gold Sponsor

SOLD SOLD SOLD

Company name featured as Wrap-up Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Two (2) tickets to Breakfast

o o o

Indicate which of the FIVE (5) available sponsorship levels shown above you selected and return the completed form below to the HBAMT to sign up today! (List company EXACTLY as you want it to appear on signage.)

CONTACT _________________________________ COMPANY ___________________________________ EMAIL ____________________________________ PHONE ______________________________________ Your Name (print) ____________________________ Signature ____________________________________ Return to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027 l Email: cnicley@hbamt.org

HBAMT does not allow subletting of any of services, products, promotional opportunities or memberships. **A 3% convenience fee is applied to all credit card transactions.** 8 The NAIL

l July,

2022

RMC Builder Grill-out!

T

he HBAMT Remodelers Council hosted a special networking and membership grill-out event last month at the association’s offices.

A large turnout enjoyed visiting with the impressive contingent of builder and remodelers and helped themselves to the delicious grilled-out fixin’s and other summertime staples courtesy of event sponsor Vavia. n

Long time Remodelers Council leaders enjoyed themselves at the RMC event. With Connie Nicley, from left: Roy Miles, David Crane, John Griffin, Don Mahone, John Broderick, and Jennifer Earnest.

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 9

10 The NAIL

l July,

2022

Call Connie Nicley at 615-347-0173 to reserve your Suite today.

(We’re Going to have FUN!) Email to: cnicley@hbamt.org July, 2022

l

The NAIL 11

12 The NAIL

l July,

2022

Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes The 2022 Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke

ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT

If your company depends on new homes or

related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2022 Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes at Rosebrooke! Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.

THE PARADE PLAN BOOK

THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH

At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book.

Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhib­it center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!

The Plan Book is a tremen­dous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over!

Plan Book Advertising Rates Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) *Page One 7.5”x10” 8.75”x11.25” (Bleed) *Inside Front Cover *Inside Back Cover Double Truck Back Cover

$800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,100 $2,300 $2,840 $3,250

*SPECIALTY LOCATIONS SOLD. Email jargo@hbamt.org for ad specs and availability.

It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your show­room the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys.

Exhibit Booth Price? $750 Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-pop­ping kiosks and marketing publications!

2022 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Email: jargo@hbamt.org

PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2022 Plan Book:

r Half Page

r Full Page

r Back Cover

r 2-Page Spread

EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2022 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Cell: _________________________________________ Email: _________________________________________ Total amount being paid: $___________ Credit Card _______________________ Credit Card # _______________________________ Exp. ____________ Credit Card V-Code _______________

The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip.

It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.

Signature ____________________________________________________________________________________ July, 2022

l

The NAIL 13

14 The NAIL

l July,

2022

SPIKE REPORT Randall Smith Steve Shalibo Jim McLean Brandon Rickman Tonya Esquibel Steve Cates Harry Johnson

180 173 165 163 155 147 146

Life Spikes Thirty SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of May 31, 2022.

Top 20 Big Spikes Mitzi Spann 793 Terry Cobb 570 Trey Lewis 541 James Carbine 441 Jimmy Franks 400 Jennifer Earnest 383 David Crane 347 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Davis Lamb 225 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219 David Hughes 183 Nick Wisniewski 182

C.W. Bartlett 138 Jordan Clark 131 Michael Dillon 123 B.J. Hanson 122 Dave McGowan 120 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Justin Hicks 116 Edsel Charles 112 Wiggs Thompson 108 Duane Vanhook 108 Keith Porterfield 84 Sam Henley 81 Jody Derrick 79 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 75 Ron Schroeder 72 Nelson Bordeau 71 Christina James 67 Andrew Neuman 67 Joe Dalton 66

Rachel Holloway 56 Brian Sebring 56 John Broderick 55 Rick Olszewski 54 Ryan Meade 52 John Ganschow 51 Frank Jones 48 Ricky Scott 45 Jim Hysen 44 Don Mahone 31 Jeffrey Caruth 28 Lisa Underwood 28 Maverick Green 25 Spikes Perry Pratt 23 Margaret Tolbert 23 Tammy Chambers 20 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 15 Danny Clawson 14 John Nehrenz 14 Eli Routh 12 Chris Richey 11 Curt Haynes 11 George Simpson 10 Clint Mitchell 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Matt Dryden 7 Randy Arnold 6 McClain Franks 6

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 15

JULY CALENDAR Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Kelly Beasley.

Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

16 The NAIL

l July,

2022

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the Mt. Juliet Chamber of Commerce: 2055 N. Mt. Juliet Road, #200 - 37122.

Next meeting and topic: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

COUNCILS HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Eli Routh.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Thursday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Lisa Underwood.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting and topic: Thursday, June 2nd, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: to be announced.

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $20 w/RSVP, $25 w/o RSVP RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org.

July, 2022

l

The NAIL 17

18 The NAIL

l July,

2022