The Nail, January 2021

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Steve Shalibo Vice President Nick Wisniewski Secretary/Treasurer Brandon Rickman Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Annual HBAMT Banquet rescheduled for March

The 2020 Builders First Source Installation and Awards Banquet has been rescheduled for March 25 at the Cool Springs Marriott.

11 Contribute now to the Showcase House program

Donate materials and/or labor to the HBAMT’s Showcase House program. There are currently two Showcase projects underway.

12 Housing’s outlook for the year ahead

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provides an outlook for housing in the coming year.

13 Sponsorships still available for the Installation Banquet

Advertise in

THE

NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

Sponsorships for the HBAMT’s Annual Installation and Awards Banquet are still available, register early for the March event.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 January Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: The Installation and Awards Banquet will be held Thursday, December 10 at the Franklin Marriott Cool Springs (see page 9 for details).

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NEWS&INFO

Affordability, lack of supply put a dent in new home sales

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ew home sales dipped in November, but remained at a solid level as builders struggled to meet demand and gain access to building materials.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in November fell 11% to an 841,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Despite the monthly decline, the November rate is 20.8% higher than a year ago.

“Though the market remains strong, the pace of sales pulled back in November as inventory remains low and affordability concerns persist as builders grapple with a shortage of lots, labor and building materials,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.

“The home building industry saw a historic gap between the pace of new home sales and construction of for-sale single-family housing this

The pace of sales pulled back in November as inventory remains low and affordability concerns persists.

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fall,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

“As a result, the pace of new home sales was expected to slow to allow construction to catch up. This appears to have occurred in November as inventory of completed, ready to occupy new homes was down 43% compared to November 2019 at just 43,000 homes nationwide.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the November reading of 841,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

Inventory rose slightly to a 4.1 months’ supply, with 286,000 new single-family homes for sale, 11.2% lower than November 2019. Of the inventory total, just 43,000 are completed, ready to occupy.

The median sales price was $335,300. The median price of a new home sale a year earlier was $328,000.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis new home sales were up in all four regions: 28.2% in the Northeast, 24% in the Midwest, 16.9% in the South, and 20.5% in the West. n

Housing starts level off, builder confidence down from record high

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ingle-family starts flattened in November as builders struggled to meet demand, while overall housing starts increased 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The November reading of 1.55 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 0.4% to a 1.19 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 4.0% to a 361,000 pace.

“Though single-family construction continued to be strong in November, builders are unable to keep up with demand due to rising regulatory and construction costs and shortages of lots and labor,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke “The incoming Biden administration needs to focus on policies to improve housing affordability and to increase supply to help housing continue to lead the economy forward.”

“The single-family construction sector appears to be leveling off at strong levels, with permits roughly at a flat level from September to October,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Nonetheless, the growth for single-family construction was a true bright spot amid economic challenges in 2020, with single-family starts up 10% year-to-date and posting the best year since the Great Recession. However, the backlog continues to grow, with the number of single-family homes permitted but not started

construction up 16.3% from November 2019 to November 2020 as material delays and higher costs hold back building.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis (January through November of 2020 compared to that same time frame a year ago), combined single-family and multifamily starts are 14.4% higher in the Midwest, 7.6% higher in the South, 5.4% higher in the West and 3.3% lower in the Northeast.

Overall permits increased 6.2% to a 1.64 million unit annualized rate in November. Single-family permits increased 1.3% to a 1.14 million unit rate. Multifamily permits increased 19.2% to a 496,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a year-todate basis, permits are 5.7% higher in the Midwest, 6.9%t higher in the South, 0.7% higher in the West and 4.4% lower in the Northeast.

Builder confidence dips from record high Ending a string of three successive months of record highs, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 86 in December, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite the decline, this is still the second-highest reading in the history of the series after last month’s mark of 90.

“Housing demand is strong entering 2021, however the coming year will see housing affordability challenges as inventory remains low and construction costs are rising,” said Fowke.

“Policymakers should take note to avoid increasing regulatory costs associated with land

A win on beneficial ownership reporting requirements

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n a win for NAHB, House and Senate negotiators have agreed on “beneficial ownership” legislation that addresses key builder concerns after NAHB negotiated directly with key congressional leaders.

Specifically, NAHB members will not be required to file federal reports on old or inactive Limited Liability Companies (LLCs), thereby avoiding an onerous and potentially financially damaging federal mandate. This language was attached to the annual Nation-

al Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Conference Report, which passed the House and Senate during the week of Dec. 7. Although President Trump vetoed the legislation, the House and Senate both voted to override the veto, meaning the bill has now been enacted into law.

While we continue to have reservations about the paperwork requirements our members will face, the legislation is great news for our industry and NAHB’s advocacy efforts.

development and residential construction.”

“Builder confidence fell back from historic levels in December, as housing remains a bright spot for a recovering economy,” said Dietz.

“The issues that have limited housing supply in recent years, including land and material availability and a persistent skilled labor shortage, will continue to place upward pressure on construction costs. As the economy improves with the deployment of a COVID-19 vaccine, interest rates will increase in 2021, further challenging housing affordability in the face of strong demand for single-family homes.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions dropped four points to 92, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell four points to 85 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also decreased four points to 73.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 82, the Midwest was up one point to 81, the South rose one point to 87 and the West increased two points to 96.

HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n

The original legislation was much more onerous and would have required builders to disclose all of their LLCs, even LLCs that have been long defunded or otherwise shut down for years. Since real estate, land development and home building activities typically involve the creation of multiple LLCs over multiple years this language would have created a burdensome, if not impossible, federal reporting requirement uniquely targeting our industry.

Looking ahead, NAHB will continue to work with the Treasury Department and the Financial Crime Enforcement Network to address outstanding paperwork and compliance issues during the rulemaking phase. n January, 2021

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Thank you Banquet sponsors!

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distributed by DixiePly Nashville

SHOWCASE HOUSE Fundraiser Program The HBAMT Showcase House program is an effort to generate funds to help fuel the association’s daily efforts to promote the home building industry and defend its builders against unjust legislative activity.

We currently have TWO projects underway: - The 2020 Showcase House at Nature’s Landing - The 2021 Showcase House at Hardeman Springs See the brochures below for a complete list of materials and labor needed for each project. Contact information for donating to each of the programs is listed below the brochure links.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit

For specific details regarding materials please contact Jimmy Franks: 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com

For specific details regarding materials please contact Steve Shalibo: 615-772-1019 or shalibo42@gmail.com

http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser_2021.html

for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

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Housing’s outlook for the year ahead

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ingle-family builder sentiment fell back to a level of 86 in December, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), after achieving an all-time high of 90 in November. The dip was due to growing concerns over housing affordability in 2021. However, December’s HMI was still the second highest on record.

Supply-side pressures, such as resurgent lumber prices, limited lot supplies, supply-chain issues, and a persistent skilled labor deficit foreshadow higher costs and longer build times heading into next year.

Moreover, on the demand side of the housing market, limited inventories of single-family homes have generated strong price gains in 2020.

The deployment of a vaccine, while repre-

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senting good news for the overall economy, will place upward pressure on interest rates.

In turn, the combination of higher prices and rising rates will price some households out of the housing market next year.

The NAHB forecast is for ongoing gains for single-family construction in 2021, though at a slower growth rate than in 2020.

Remodeling will remain strong as people continue to upgrade existing homes. The multifamily construction market will experience weakness as rent growth slows and vacancy rates rise. However, the development market should stabilize by 2022.

Together, residential construction will remain a leading element of the recovering economy, as illustrated with recent labor market data: Residential construction added 15,400 net jobs in November and was

one of only a few sectors of the economy to post a year-over-year jobs gain (26,000).

While the HMI fell back, the outlook for housing remains positive, as the overall economy is expected to record a solid gain for GDP growth in 2021. NAHB anticipates GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of the year, after a majority of the U.S. population has been vaccinated. This process will be the most important element of 2021, as it will allow hard-hit sectors in the service industries to begin to recover and diminish shutdown risks harming small businesses.

A growing economy will be good for housing, but industry stakeholders should be aware it could also result in higher interest rates that could act as a headwind for more housing growth. n

The 2020 HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE! GENERAL SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet

$600

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$1,000

RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)

- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$5,000

TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (60) beverage tickets of your choice

$7,500

Yes, I want to sponsor the 2020 Installation & Awards Banquet (3/25/21) at the level checked above.

Company name: _____________________________________________________________

Your Name: _________________________________________________________________

Your number: ________________________ Your email: ______________________________

Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Fax: 615-377-1077 | Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027

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SPIKE REPORT Jim McLean 164 Randall Smith 154

What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of November 30, 2020.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Mitzi Spann 785 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 565 Trey Lewis 498 James Carbine 406 Jennifer Earnest 375 David Crane 335 Jimmy Franks 332 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219 Davis Lamb 216 Jackson Downey 182

Life Spikes David Hughes 149 Tonya Esquibel 148 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 Helmet Mundt 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 Nick Wisniewski 129 Jordan Clark 123 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Michael Dillon 112 Justin Hicks 112 Dave McGowan 110 Steve Shalibo 110 Edsel Charles 109 Wiggs Thompson 106 Duane Vanhook 103 Joe Morgan 94 Brandon Rickman 90 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Keith Porterfield 80 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 74 Jody Derrick 73 Sam Henley 72 Lori Fisk-Conners 70

Ron Schroeder 69 Andrew Neuman 62 Marty Maitland 60 John Broderick 55 Christina James 55 John Ganschow 51 Rick Olszewski 50 Phillip Smith 47 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Frank Jones 39 Joe Dalton 33 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 30 Jeffrey Caruth 25 Spikes Ryan Meade 21 Rachel Holloway 20 Perry Pratt 20 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 14 Tammy Chambers 13 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 11 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10 Chris Richey 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Matt Dryden 7 Curt Haynes 7 McClain Franks 6 Kevin Martin 6

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JANUARY CALENDAR Sunday

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Monday

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Thursday

Friday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council Meeting

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CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, Janaury 7th.

Topic: “2021 Expectations and Trends.”

SMC Members FREE w/RSVP pending sponsorship.

Non-SMC members: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP RSVP REQUIRED - LIMITED SEATING RSVP to cnicley@hbamt.org Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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