The Nail, December 2021

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Steve Shalibo Vice President Nick Wisniewski Secretary/Treasurer Brandon Rickman Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Annual banquet scheduled for Thursday, December 16th The Builders First Source Installation and Awards Banquet is this month. See page nine for details and make your reservations today.

10 Nature’s Landing Showcase House Awards Reception

The Nature’s Landing Showcase House project wrapped with a celebratory reception at recently completed home last month.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report

Advertise in

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16 December Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils

NAIL Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details!

ON THE COVER: The Nature’s Landing Showcase House opened its doors for a reception last month.

See page 11 (eleven) for more details.

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NEWS&INFO

Housing affordability holds steady, challenges persist

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ousing affordability held steady at its lowest level in nearly a decade, as higher home prices offset lower mortgage rates to keep the affordability rate flat in the third quarter of 2021. However, ongoing supply-chain disruptions and the prospect of higher interest rates in the future threaten to exacerbate affordability problems in the months ahead.

According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released recently, 56.6% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $79,900. This is unchanged from the 56.6% of homes sold in the second quarter of 2021 and remains the lowest affordability level since the beginning of the revised series in the first quarter of 2012.

“Persistent building material supply chain bottlenecks and tariffs on Canadian lumber and

Policymakers must fix supply chain vulnerabilities that are disrupting and delaying construction projects and hurting housing affordability.

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Chinese steel and aluminum continue to place upward pressure on construction costs and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Policymakers must fix supply chain vulnerabilities that are disrupting and delaying construction projects and hurting housing affordability.”

“Interest rates are anticipated to gradually rise in the coming months as the Fed begins to taper its monthly bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “To keep affordability problems from worsening in the future, policymakers need to tackle supply-chain challenges that are hindering new home production. Helping builders boost output will also slow the rapid rise in home prices that has occurred over the past year.”

The HOI shows that the national median home price increased to a record $355,000 in the third quarter, up $5,000 from the second quarter and $35,000 from the first quarter.

Meanwhile, average mortgage rates fell by 14 basis points in the third quarter to 2.95% from the rate of 3.09% in the second quarter. However, mortgage rates are currently running above 3.1%, and this higher trend could affect affordability later this year and into 2022. n

Housing production lags in October, builder confidence up

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ingle-family housing production lagged in October due to supply-chain effects for materials and ongoing access issues for labor and lots. Overall housing starts decreased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The October reading of 1.52 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 3.9% to a 1.04 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, and are up 16.7% year-to-date. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 7.1% to an annualized 481,000 pace.

Due to supply-chain effects, there are 152,000 single-family units authorized but not started construction— up 43.4% from a year ago.

“The rising count of homes permitted but that have not yet started construction is a stark reminder to policymakers to fix the supply chain so that builders can access a steady source of lumber and other building materials to keep projects moving forward,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.

“Single-family permit data has been roughly flat on a seasonally adjusted basis since June due to higher development and construction costs,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Demand remains solid but housing affordability is likely to decline in 2022 with rising

interest rates.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis (January through October of 2021 compared to that same time frame a year ago), combined single-family and multifamily starts are 30.2% higher in the Northeast, 10.7% higher in the Midwest, 15.2% higher in the South and 20.4% higher in the West.

Overall permits increased 4.0% to a 1.65 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits increased 2.7% to a 1.07 million unit rate. Multifamily permits increased 6.6% to an annualized 581,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a yearto-date basis, permits are 14.4% higher in the Northeast, 17.2% higher in the Midwest, 20.4% higher in the South and 23.0% higher in the West.

Builder confidence up on strong demand Low existing inventories and strong buyer demand helped push builder confidence higher for the third consecutive month even as supply-side challenges — including building material bottlenecks and lot and labor shortages — remain stubbornly persistent. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved three points higher to 83 in November, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released recently.

“The solid market for home building continued in November despite ongoing supply-side challenges,” said Fowke. “Lack of resale inventory combined with strong consumer demand

Record share of NAHB members report labor shortages

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abor shortages, as reported by single-family builders and remodelers, have hit unprecedented highs since and continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges, along with lot shortages and heightened material costs.

According to the October 2021 HMI survey, more than 55% of single-family builders reported a shortage of labor across 16 home-building trades, with the greatest shortage noted among carpentry trades (rough, finished and framing crews). The third quar-

ter Remodeling Market Index (RMI) survey provided similar results across each of the same 16 trades, including a heightened challenge for rough and finished carpentry.

The same surveys indicate that subcontractor shortages are even more widespread than shortages of labor employed directly by general contractors. At least 90% of single-family builders reported a shortage of subcontractors in each of the three categories of carpenters, and 80% to 85% reported a shortage of subcontractors in six other

continues to boost single-family home building.”

“In addition to well publicized concerns over building materials and the national supply chain, labor and building lot access are key constraints for housing supply,” said Dietz. “Lot availability is at multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000 open positions. Policymakers need to focus on resolving these issues to help builders produce more housing to meet strong market demand.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 89 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also posted a three-point gain to 68. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 84.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest rose four points to 72, the South registered a four-point gain to 84 and the West rose one point to 84.

The Northeast fell two points to 70.

HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi.

More information on housing statistics is also available at Housing Economics PLUS (formerly housingeconomics.com). n

trades. Meanwhile, at least 90% of remodelers reported a shortage of subcontractors among carpenters, as well as concrete workers. Overall, more than 80% of remodelers reported a shortage of subcontractors in 11 of the 16 trades.

Attracting skilled labor will remain a key objective in the coming quarters and will become more challenging as the labor market strengthens. According to the September BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, total national job openings stands at 10.4 million. Open construction jobs declined somewhat to 333,000 unfilled positions in September, while the hiring rate remained solid at 4.7% and the layoff rate hit a four-year low of 1.6%. n December, 2021

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the officers of the

Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee request the pleasure of your company at the

77th Annual Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 16, 2021 5:30 pm (doors open)

Reception - 6:00-7:00 pm reception sponsored by:

GRAND HYATT HOTEL

1000 Broadway, Nashville, TN 37203 LIMITED SEATING - RSVP REQUIRED

Tickets - $125.00 per person w/RSVP by Fri, Dec. 10th $135.00 per person w/RSVP after 12/10 RSVP to: CNICLEY@HBAMT.ORG December, 2021

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Thank you Banquet sponsors!

DIXIE EARTH MOVERS

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by DixiePly Nashville

Nature’s Landing Showcase House!

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ennessee Valley Homes held an open house and dedication ceremony for the Nature’s Landing Showcase House project last month at the recently completed home in Franklin.

Jimmy Franks, founder of Tennessee Valley Homes past HBAMT president, oversaw the development and construction of this Showcase House, a project that raises funds through the sale of the house for the association to continue its support of the local home building industry.

Companies contributing to the construction of the house were recognized during the event and presented plaques of appreciation by Franks. A big thanks to everyone for your support of the project and the association. See page fourteen for a full list of these companies.

And a very big thanks to Jimmy and the entire Tennessee Valley Homes team for their efforts in constructing the Showcase Home and celebrating its success in such grand style. Thank you for your dedication and hard work. It is greatly appreciated! n

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Turner Binkley, Kaleb Carey, and Emery Ginger from Binkley Designed, accepts the company’s appreciation award from Jimmy Franks.

Kimberly Armstrong and Lana Reed from California Closets.

Paul Wright from Carpet Den Interiors.

Darrel Reifschneider, Harpeth True Value

Huntley Gordon, Limestone Title & Escrow

Channing Doughtry, PPG

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Patrick Hutchinson, Parksite/DuPont Tyvek

Lisa Steltemeier, Vulcan Materials

Thank you 2021 Showcase House contributors!

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A&W Southern Sod Farms

Harpeth True Value

Binkley Designed

Heaven Exteriors

Boise Cascade

Installed Building Products

Builder’s First Source

IMI

Brentwood Cabinets

Keeling Company

California Closets

Kennedy’s Portable Toilets

Carpet Den Interiors

Kohler Co.

CD Door Company

Limestone Title & Escrow

Central Woodwork

Melko Company

Clinard Home Improvement

Meridian Brick

Concrete Pump Partners

Nashville Fireplace Distributors, Inc.

Cosentino

Parksite - Dupont, Tyvek

Fancy Vents

Piper’s Plumbing

Ferguson Enterprises

PPG Architectural Coatings

Fireside Home & Hearth

Quality Waterproofing

Floortech

Revive Energy

GBT Heating & Cooling

Sign Here of TN

Garner Engineering

Spec Building Materials

Guardian Systems

Studio Bank

Granite & Stone Design

Valley Interior Products

Harrah & Associates

Vulcan Materials

H & H Termite

Williams Foundations

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SPIKE REPORT David Hughes Jim McLean Nick Wisniewski

Seventeen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of October 31th, 2021.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Mitzi Spann 792 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 Trey Lewis 525 James Carbine 416 Jennifer Earnest 379 Jimmy Franks 373 David Crane 341 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Davis Lamb 221 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219 Jackson Downey 182 Randall Smith 172

170 164 158

Life Spikes Tonya Esquibel 152 Steve Shalibo 147 Steve Cates 146 Harry Johnson 146 C.W. Bartlett 138 Brandon Rickman 129 Jordan Clark 128 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Michael Dillon 119 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Dave McGowan 115 Justin Hicks 114 Edsel Charles 111 Wiggs Thompson 107 Duane Vanhook 106 Joe Morgan 96 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Keith Porterfield 84 Jody Derrick 78 Erin Richardson 77 Sam Henley 76 Beth Sturm 74 Ron Schroeder 72 Nelson Bordeau 71 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Andrew Neuman 65

Christina James 64 Brian Sebring 56 John Broderick 55 Rick Olszewski 54 John Ganschow 51 Joe Dalton 49 Rachel Holloway 48 Phillip Smith 47 Ryan Meade 46 Frank Jones 46 Ricky Scott 45 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 31 Jeffrey Caruth 26 Maverick Green 25 Spikes Jim Hysen 21 Perry Pratt 21 Margaret Tolbert 20 Tammy Chambers 16 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 15 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 12 Lisa Underwood 11 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10 Chris Richey 10 Bob Bellenfant 8 Clint Mitchell 8 Matt Dryden 7 McClain Franks 6

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DECEMBER CALENDAR Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council Meeting

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Chili Cook-off 2022 General Elections

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Sales & Marketing Council Meeting

CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles.

Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton.

The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

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WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski.

The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending

sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Eli Routh.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jessica Neal.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, December 2nd.

Topic: “Holiday Breakfast Mixer,” at the Witherspoon Clubhouse - 1469 Witherspoon Drive - Brentwood, 37027 SMC Members FREE w/RSVP. RSVP to cnicley@hbamt.org Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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