The Nail, December 2019

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Justin Hicks Vice President David Hughes Secretary/Treasurer Steve Shalibo Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Thankfully Blessed event benefits children’s charity

The Metro/Nashville held a terrific event last month featuring a live auction and dueling drums, all to benefit Tennessee Voice for Children.

10 2019 OKTOBERFEST and Chili Cook-off

The 2019 Reliant Bank Oktoberfest and Chili Cook-off was held October 29 at the HBAMT.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report

Advertise in

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16 December Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils

NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

ON THE COVER: Join the HBAMT for their annual holiday events this month! The Holiday Open House Party is set for Tuesday, December 10 (see page 8 for details). And the Installation and Awards Banquet will be held Thursday, December 19 at the JW Marriott in Nashville (see page 13 for details).

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news&info

New home sales post strong pace in October

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ales of newly built, single-family homes decreased 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 units in October, off strong upward revisions to the September reading, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. On a year-to-date basis, new home sales for 2019 are 9.6 percent higher than the same period in 2018. Moreover, the past two months represent the highest monthly sales rate since October 2007.

“Forty-five percent of homes sold in October were priced below $300,000, which is an indication that more millennial buyers are taking advantage of low mortgage rates and entering into the marketplace,” said Greg Ugalde, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, and a home builder

Low inventory rates show there is a need for added construction to meet growing demand.

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and developer from Torrington, Conn.

“For-sale inventory remains tight as this marks the third consecutive month below a six-month supply,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s Assistant Vice President of Forecasting and Analysis. “The low inventory rates show there is a need for added construction to meet growing demand.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the October reading of 733,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

The inventory of new homes for sale was 322,000 in October, representing a 5.3 months’ supply. The median sales price was $316,700. The median price of a new home sale a year earlier was $328,300.

Regionally, and on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 15.7 percent higher in the South and 9.1 percent higher in the West.

Sales are down 11.1 percent in the Northeast and 7.5 percent in the Midwest.. n

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Gain for construction loan volume during third quarter

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fter a slight (and delayed) dip in interest rates for AD&C loans, the stock of outstanding residential construction loans expanded during the third quarter of 2019. The volume of 1-4 unit residential construction loans made by FDIC-insured institutions increased 0.8%.

The volume of loans increased by $628 million during the quarter, placing the total stock of loans at $80.3 billion.

On a year-over-year basis, the stock of residential construction loans is up just 1.6%, the lowest growth rate since the end

of 2013. Since the first quarter of 2013, the stock of outstanding home building construction loans has nonetheless grown by 97%, an increase of almost $40 billion.

It is worth noting the FDIC data represent only the stock of loans, not changes in the underlying flows, so it is an imperfect data source.

Lending remains much reduced from years past. The current amount of existing residential AD&C loans now stands 61% lower than the peak level of residential construction lending of $204 billion reached during the first quarter of 2008.

Single-family starts up, builder confidence holds firm

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otal housing starts increased 3.8 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Department.

The October reading of 1.31 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if they kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.0 percent to 936,000 units. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 8.6 percent to a 378,000 pace.

“Home builders are seeing more building opportunities as market conditions remain solid,” said Greg Ugalde, NAHB chairman.

“Builder sentiment remains strong, and we are seeing an uptick in buyer traffic.”

“Led by lower mortgage rates, the pace of single-family permits has been increasing since April, and the rate of single-family starts has grown since May,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Solid wage growth, healthy employment gains and an increase in household formations are also contributing to the steady rise in home production.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts in October are 6.8 percent higher in the South. Starts are down 0.5 percent in the Northeast, 7.4 percent in the Midwest and 10.3 percent in the West.

Overall permits, which are a harbinger of future housing production, increased 5.0 per-

cent to a 1.46 million unit annualized rate in October. Single-family permits rose 3.2 percent to a 909,000 rate while multifamily permits increased 8.2 percent to a 552,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a yearto-date basis, permits are 9.2 percent higher in the Northeast and 5.2 percent higher in the South. Permits are down 5.0 percent in the Midwest and 1.4 percent in the West.

Builder confidence holds firm Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.

“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said Ugalde. “In a further sign of solid

The FDIC data reveal that the total decline from peak lending for home building construction loans continues to exceed that of other AD&C loans (nonresidential, land development, and multifamily). Such forms of AD&C lending are off a smaller 36% from peak lending. For the second quarter, these loans expanded by 0.8%.

As builder and developer lending has slowed, a gap remains between the current volume of home building demand and available credit. This lending gap is being made up with other sources of capital, including equity, investments from non-FDIC insured institutions and lending from other private sources, which may in some cases offer less favorable terms for home builders than traditional AD&C loans. n

demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all builders surveyed have reported positive buyer traffic conditions.”

“We have seen substantial year-over-year improvement following the housing affordability crunch of late 2018, when the HMI stood at 60,” said Dietz. “However, lot shortages remain a serious problem, particularly among custom builders. Builders also continue to grapple with other affordability headwinds, including a lack of labor and regulatory constraints.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 76 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped one point to 53. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a two-point gain to 62, the West was up three points to 81 and the South moved one point higher to 74. The Midwest remained unchanged at 58. n December, 2019

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Thankfully Blessed

Event features live auction and drum duel to benefit children’s charity.

The Metro/Nashville held an important and fun-filled event at the Avery community in Brentwood last month. Titled “Thankfully Blessed,” the event, sponsored by Hidden Valley Homes, raised money and awareness for Tennessee Voices for Children, a charity that benefits children in need of mental health services. Attendees enjoyed a high stakes live auction as well as a terrific drum duel featuring HBAMT members John Hughes and Gary Wisniewski. A big thanks to The Tile Shop, James Hardie, and Opus Luxury Cabinets for sponsoring the food and beverages. n

John Hughes

Gary Wisniewski

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OKTOBERFEST 2019!

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reat night at the HBAMT! The Second Annual HBAMT Reliant Bank Oktoberfest was held in conjunction with the Annual Chili Cook-off and 2020 general elections October 29 and drew a big crowd to the HBAMT offices. Local, state, and national director candidates campaigned for votes prior to the election while enjoying a great assortment of beer and chili dishes provided

by Oktoberfest and Chili Cook-off participants.

The Moen Incorporated Chili Team took home first place honors during the judges’ awards for their chili. And the “Blondie’s Diner” team from Compass RE took home the “People’s Choice” award for their entry.

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Tennessee Valley Homes’ “Bugle Elk Chili” team took home the judges’ second place award, while Real Wood Floors’ “Netflix and Chili” team took home third place honors.

A big thanks to Reliant Bank and to all the participants for serving up delicious chili dishes and amazing brews.

Elected officers and directors who will serve in the upcoming year will be installed at the HBAMT’s Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 19 at the JW Marriott in Nashville, Tenn. (See page thirteen for more details.) Look for all your 2020 leaders and 2019 award winners in the January issue of The Nail next month. n

People’s Choice award winner - Compass RE. Brenda Wilson-Lowery and Kimberly Greenwell.

First Place award winner - Moen Incorporated. The Moen Chili Team.

Second Place - Tennessee Valley Homes. Connie Nicley presents Jimmy Franks their award.

Second Place - Real Wood Floors. Nicley presents Jeremi Gill their award.

Nacho Average Chili Landmark Homes

Cookin’ the Books Bellenfant CPA Firm

Beer & Cheese Soup Team Kenny & Company

Buckin’ Good Chili MTSU Student team 1

Holy Smoke Chili Superior Distribution

Hot Stuff Reliant Bank

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Blondie’s Diner Compass RE

It’s Always Spicy in Chilidelphia RMAX

Cali Caliente’ MTSU Student team 2

Bugle Elk Chili Team Tennessee Valley Homes

Netflix and Chili Real Wood Floors

MOEN Chili Team MOEN Incorporated

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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb 208 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177 Jim McLean 164

Twenty SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of October 31, 2019.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 772 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 563 Trey Lewis 461 James Carbine 399 Jennifer Earnest 371 David Crane 325 Jimmy Franks 300 Kevin Hale 300 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219

Life Spikes Harry Johnson 146 Tonya Esquibel 143 Steve Cates 142 Randall Smith 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 Sam Carbine 136 Kevin Woodward 131 David Hughes 124 Jordan Clark 122 Helmet Mundt 122 B.J. Hanson 121 Steve Hewlett 119 Carmen Ryan 119 John Zelenak 116 Dave McGowan 108 Edsel Charles 107 Justin Hicks 107 Michael Dillon 104 Wiggs Thompson 104 Duane Vanhook 101 Nick Wisniewski 95 Joe Morgan 91 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Erin Richardson 77 Keith Porterfield 75 Steve Shalibo 74

Beth Sturm 73 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Jeff Slusher 70 Sam Henley 67 Ron Schroeder 66 Jody Derrick 64 Don Bruce 62 Eugene James 62 Marty Maitland 60 Brandon Rickman 60 John Broderick 55 Andrew Neuman 54 Derenda Sircy 52 John Ganschow 49 Rick Olszewski 47 Phillip Smith 46 Ashley Crews 45 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Christina James 37 Frank Jones 35 Frank Tyree 31 Don Mahone 30 Spikes Joe Dalton 21 Jeffrey Caruth 19 Perry Pratt 17 Nicole Bird 15 Ryan Meade 15 Tammy Chambers 12 Eric DeBerry 12 Rob Pease 12

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DECEMBER Calendar Sunday

Monday

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Tuesday

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Wednesday

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Friday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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HBAMT Holiday Open House Party

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Annual Installation and Awards Banquet

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: Tuesday, November 19.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: Meeting FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

FREE w/RSVP pending sponsorship.

Please RSVP for Maury County Chapter meetings to Connie Nicley - cnicley@hbamt.org.

GENERAL MEMBERSHIP MEETING Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The General Membership meeting is held on the fourth Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Tuesday, November 19 - 4:30 to 7:00 p.m.

Topic: “Thankfully Blessed” charity event at Avery in Brentwood. 6458 Penrose Drive, Brentwood, TN 37027.

First 50 FREE with RSVP thanks to event sponsor Hidden Valley Homes.

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Price: $10 per person w/RSVP; $15 w/o.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 See page ** of this issue for more details.

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jeffrey Caruth.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, November 10, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices - 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 Topic: “Cyber Crimes Prevention,” with Laura Perry, Homeland Title.

SMC members free thanks to Willow Branch Partners; nonSMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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