The Nail, December 2018

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Keith Porterfield Vice President Justin Hicks Secretary/Treasurer David Hughes Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 Big night at the HBAMT, first Annual Oktoberfest!

The First Annual HBAMT Oktoberfest was held in conjunction with the Annual Chili Cook-off and general elections last month.

15 Installation banquet set for December 13th

You’re invited to the annual banquet at the JW Marriott Nashville. RSVP now to attend the always popular event.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 21 SPIKE Club Report

Advertise in

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22 December Calendar 22 Chapters and Councils

NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

ON THE COVER: Big evening at the HBAMT as the First Annual Oktoberfest is held with the Chili Cook-off and 2019 General Elections. More on page nine.

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news&info

New home sales drop in October, up 2.8 percent from 2017

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ales of newly built, single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 units in October according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the lowest sales pace since December 2016. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales are up 2.8 percent from this time in 2017.

“The November reading is consistent with reports from our builders, who say that the job market and demographic tailwinds bode well for housing demand but rising interest rates and home prices are forcing customers to take a pause,” said Randy Noel, NAHB chairman.

“Policymakers should see this drop in sales as an indicator that housing affordability will continue to slow down the market.”

While a solid economy and positive demographics support future demand, it is critical we address affordability issues.

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“Home sales declined this month as housing affordability continues to be a hurdle for consumers,” said NAHB Senior Economist Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington. “While a solid economy and positive demographics support future demand for housing, it is critical to address this mounting affordability crisis.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the October reading of 544,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 336,000 in October. The median sales price fell 3.6 percent to $309,700, as the market is shifting to townhomes and other lower-cost houses.

Looking at the regional numbers on a yearto-date basis, new home sales rose 6.3 percent in the Midwest, 4.1 percent in the West, and 3.8 percent in the South. Home sales fell 17.1 percent in the Northeast year-to-date. n

Single-family housing starts edge down in October

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ising housing affordability concerns continue to weigh on single-family production even as total housing starts edged higher in October.

According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department, total housing starts rose 1.5 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million units from an upwardly revised September reading. Year-to-date, new housing starts are 5.6 percent above their level over the same period last year.

The October reading of 1.23 million is the number of housing units builders would start if they maintained this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts edged down 1.8 percent to 865,000 units. Meanwhile, multifamily starts—which include apartment buildings and condos—rose 10.3 percent to 363,000.

“This month’s decrease in single-family starts isn’t a surprise given the drop in our builder confidence index,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “Builders are showing caution as mounting housing affordability concerns are forcing some consumers to delay making a home purchase.”

“Single-family starts were strong at the beginning of the year, but weakened this summer and have remained soft,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Despite this softness, 2018 construction volume is set to be the best since the downturn. A growing economy and positive demographic tailwinds are supporting housing demand as interest rates rise.

However, policymakers should take note of the November decline in builder confidence as a sign that housing affordability conditions will weigh on the housing market going forward.”

Overall permits—which are an indicator of future housing production—registered a 0.6 percent drop in October to 1.26 million. Single-family permits fell 0.6 percent to an 849,000 unit pace while multifamily permits dropped 0.5 percent to an annualized rate of 414,000.

Looking at the regional numbers on a year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily housing starts rose 13.5 percent in the West and 5.5 percent in the South.

Starts fell 0.6 percent in the Midwest and 4.8 percent in the Northeast.

Also on a year-to-date basis, permit issuance rose 7.6 percent in the South and 3.9 percent in the West. Permits were down 2.4 percent in the Midwest and 5 percent in the Northeast.

Builder confidence falls eight points Growing affordability concerns resulted in builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes falling eight points to 60 in November on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the sharp drop, builder sentiment still remains in positive territory.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer demand for new homes but that customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices,” said Noel.

“For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs

Slight growth for custom home building

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AHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building posted a small gain on a year-over-year basis.

There were 54,000 total custom starts for the third quarter of 2018. This was a slight improvement over the third quarter of 2017 (51,000). Over the last four quarters, ending with the third quarter of 2018, custom housing starts totaled 175,000. This was a 1.2%

gain over the prior four quarters. Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis uses a narrow definition of the sector.

As measured on a one-year moving average, the market share of custom home building in terms of total single-family starts is now 20%, down from a cycle high of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009.

The onset of the housing crisis and the Great Recession interrupted a 15-year long

have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” said Dietz. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

With the prospect of future interest rate hikes in store, Dietz said that builders have adopted a more cautious approach to market conditions and urged policymakers to take note.

“Recent policy statements on economic conditions have lacked commentary on housing, even as housing affordability has hit a 10-year low,” said Dietz. “Given that housing leads the economy, policymakers need to focus more on residential market conditions.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All of the major HMI indices posted declines. The index measuring current sales conditions fell seven points to 67, the component gauging expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 65 and the metric charting buyer traffic registered an eightpoint drop to 45.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 58. The Midwest edged one point lower to 57, the South declined two points to 68 and the West dropped three points to 71. n

trend away from homes built on the eventual owner’s land. As housing production slowed in 2006 and 2007, the market share of this not-for-sale new housing increased as the number of single-family starts declined. The share increased because the credit crunch made it more difficult for builders to obtain AD&C credit, thus producing relatively greater production declines of for-sale single-family housing.

Recent declines in market share are due to an acceleration in overall single-family construction, especially in spec home building. As this part of the market cools due to declining affordability, the market share for custom homes will likely stabilize. n December, 2018

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HBAMT OKTOBERFEST 2018 a hit!

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ig night at the HBAMT! The First Annual HBAMT Oktoberfest was held in conjunction with the Annual Chili Cook-off and 2019 general elections last month and drew a big crowd to the HBAMT offices. Local, state, and national director candidates campaigned for votes prior to the election while enjoying a great assortment of beer and chili dishes provided by Oktoberfest and Chili Cook-off participants.

The “Grim Reapers” team from InterLinc Mortgage took home first place honors during the judges’ awards for their chili. And Regent Home’s “Rojo Reapers” took home the “People’s Choice” award for their entry.

Regent Homes also took home the judges’ second place award, while the PPG “Mule Town Chili Kings” team took home third place honors.

A big thanks to all the participants for making the event such a success and for serving up some delicious chili dishes and amazing brews.

Elected officers and directors who will serve in the upcoming year will be installed at the HBAMT’s Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 13 at the JW Marriott in Nashville, Tenn. (See page fifteen for more details.) Look for all your 2019 leaders and 2018 award winners in the January issue of The Nail next month. n December, 2018

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First Place - InterLinc Mortgage. Kathy Eckhart, Tonya Esquibel, and Jackie Lynn-Hurtis.

Second Place & People’s Choice winner - Regent Homes. John Giovannetti.

2018 CHILI COOK-OFF WINNERS!

Top chili dishes from this year’s cook-off walked away with trophies and bragging rights following the tally of judges’ and event attendees’ votes.

FIRST PLACE The “Grim Reapers” team from InterLinc Mortgage Winning dish - Grim Reaper Chili SECOND PLACE The “Regents Rojo Reapers” team from Regent Homes Winning dish - Rojo Reaper Chili THIRD PLACE The “Mule Town Chili Kings” team from PPG Winning dish - Mule Town Chili Second Place - PPG. Jennifer Earnest presents Nathan Paul their award.

PEOPLE’S CHOICE AWARD The “Regents Rojo Reapers” team from Regent Homes Winning dish - Rojo Reaper Chili

Rachel Cechovic, John Bellenfant, Bob Bellenfant and Quinn Avirom, of the Bellenfant CPA Firm “Between the Spreadsheets” team. Dish: Lifo the Party Chili.

Mande Roberts (right) of the Bob Parks Realty “Turkey Trot Chili” team. Dish: Turkey Trot Chili. With Brian McGuinness, Franklin American Mortgage

Kristen Carbine and Beth Sturm of the Carbine & Associates “MeMaw’s Chili and Moonshine” team.

Dish: MeMaw’s Chili and Moonshine.

Lane Gearhardt and Krystyna Bowling of the Franklin American Mortgage “Red Hot Chili Lenders” team. Dish: Red Hot Chili.

Andy Neuman (left) of the Handyman Connection “Drain the Swamp” team. Dish: Drain the Swamp Chili.

With chili tasters Bill Pfaffman and James Carbine.

Jeremy McCulley of the Hermitage Lighting Gallery “White Chicken Chili” team. Dish: White Chicken Chili.

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Jennifer Earnest of the Kenny & Company chili team. Dish: Hotter than Fire Mac-n-Cheese Chili.

Matt Price of the Nashville Fireplace “The Spice is Right” team. Dish: The Spice is Right Chili.

Angie Ziegler, Nanci Gregg and Lori Fisk-Conners of the Nashville House & Home & Garden Magazine team. Dish: Ticked Off Chili.

George Simpson of the Northwest Exterminating “Over the Top Smokey McSmoke Face” team. Dish: Over the Top Smokey McSmoke Face Chili.

Natalie Rokes of the Pella Windows & Doors “Chili Day in Pelladise” team. Dish: Chili Day in Pelladise.

Samantha Argo and Sean McConnell of the ProSource “Pepperhead Chili” team. Dish: Pepperhead Chili. With fellow chili cook contestant Nanci Gregg.

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GENERAL SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet

$600

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Twenty (20) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$1,000

RECEPTIONS r SPONSOR (2 available)

- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Fifty (50) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$5,000

TITLE r SPONSOR (1 available)

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment $7,000 - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - One hundred (100) beverage tickets of your choice

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the officers of the

Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee request the pleasure of your company at the

Annual Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 13, 2018 - 6:00 pm (doors open) JW Marriott Nashville 201 8th Ave S, Nashville 37203

Reception - 6:00-7:00 pm LIMITED SEATING - RSVP REQUIRED

Tickets - $120.00 per person w/RSVP by Fri, Dec. 7th $130.00 per person w/RSVP after 12/7 RSVP to 377-9651, ext. 266 Email - cnicley@hbamt.net The Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027

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Thank you Banquet sponsors!

AMY ROOKS

DIXIE EARTH MOVERS

Julie Arnold Team

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Exhibitor Agreement - January 11-13, 2019 FAIRGROUNDS NASHVILLE - NASHVILLE, TN Exhibitor application & contract for exhibit space

Return this completed form to the HBAMT to reserve your space at the 2019 Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee HOME SHOW. Return to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027 Phone: (615) 377-1055 Fax: (615) 377-1077 For more information please visit: www.thehomeshow.org

Name ___________________________________________________ Company _________________________________________________ Address ________________________________________________ City ________________________________ St. _____ Zip __________ Phone _______________________________ Mobile ________________________________ Email ________________________________ PLEASE LIST ALL PRODUCTS & SERVICES YOU WISH TO EXHIBIT - This is mandatory (please see rule #1 in show regulations) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Do you have something new to the market? r Yes; please describe ___________________________________________________________ Estimated time you will need to set up your display ______ Will your display require special needs? r Yes; please describe ____________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Would you be interested in doing a seminar? r Yes; what subject _____________________________________________________________

SELECT YOUR BOOTH SPACE & REQUIRED ELECTRICAL CONNECTIONS

for Custom Space Size price, contact HBAMT offices with your dimensions; booth preference choices not guaranteed

Custom Space Insert Size

Exhibit Space Fairgrounds

10x10 Booth Space

10x20 Booth Space

20x20 Booth Space

Member Rate

r $595

r $1090

r $2000

r $______

Non-Member Rate

r $795

r $1490

r $2800

r $______

____ x ____

Standard Electrical Connection (110v) = $125.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Electricity Industrial Electrical Connection (220v) = $250.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Your total based on booth space & electrical connections $ ___________ (please pay this amount below)

YOUR TOTAL

A 50% deposit holds your booth; full amount must be paid before the move in date/time assigned by the HBAMT.

Booth preferences

Please list your top 3 booth locations (see brochure at www.thehomeshow.org): ______

______

______

*Electrical fees are subject to change if requirements ARE NOT requested by January 1, 2019.

Are you interested in an HBAMT membership? r Yes (Members receive reduced Home Show rates & other benefits; visit www.hbamt.org for more) Amount Enclosed __________

Payment: r Check; Check #______________________

r Visa/Mastercard

r AMEX

r Discover

Card Number __________________________________________________________ Exp. _____________________ V-Code _____________ Name on Card (please print) ____________________________________ Signature _____________________________________________ I HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ABIDE BY ALL SHOW RULES AND REGULATIONS - complete list found at www.hbamt.org/home_show.html Applicants signature: _______________________________________________________ Date: ____________________________________ 20 The NAIL

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SPIKE REPORT

Twenty-two SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of October 31, 2018.

Top 20 Big Spikes Virgil Ray Mitzi Spann Terry Cobb Jim Fischer John Whitaker Trey Lewis James Carbine Jennifer Earnest David Crane Kevin Hale Jimmy Franks Reese Smith III Steve Moody Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Tim Ferguson

821 765 570 566 557 418 392 365 315 300 271 261 219 206 182 177

Jim McLean Louise Stark Harry Johnson Steve Cates

164 163 146 142

Life Spikes C.W. Bartlett Tonya Esquibel Sam Carbine Randall Smith B.J. Hanson Steve Hewlett Jordan Clark Carmen Ryan John Zelenak Dave McGowan Edsel Charles Wiggs Thompson David Hughes Duane Vanhook Michael Dillon Justin Hicks Christina Cunningham Erin Richardson Beth Sturm Joe Morgan Lori Fisk-Conners Don Bruce Keith Porterfield Ron Schroeder Marty Maitland Nick Wisniewski John Broderick

138 136 135 123 119 119 118 117 110 107 105 103 100 99 97 90 82 77 72 71 69 62 62 60 59 56 55

Derenda Sircy Jody Derrick Andrew Neuman John Ganschow Bryan Edwards Phillip Smith Ricky Scott Ashley Crews Steve Shalibo Rick Olszewski Don Mahone Frank Tyree Christina James

51 50 50 49 44 44 43 42 40 37 30 29 26

Spikes Frank Jones 22 Brandon Rickman 22 John Burns 16 Perry Pratt 12 Will Montgomery 10 Rob Pease 10 Tammy Chambers 9 Joe Dalton 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Kim Carman 8 Eric DeBerry 8 Jeffrey Caruth 7 Stacy DeSoto 7 Ryan Meade 7 McClain Franks 6 Curt Haynes 6

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DECEMber Calendar Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

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Builders First Source, HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet

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HBAMT Holiday Open House Party

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: January, 2019.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Tonya Esquibel.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: January, 2019. 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: to be announced.

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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