February 2012 U.S. employment situation: Labor market coming back to life
733,000 jobs added over the last three months; unemployment rate stable at 8.3 percent in February 600
12.0%
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
400
10.0%
200 8.0%
0
6.0%
-200 -400
4.0%
-600 2.0%
-800
0.0%
-1000 2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Job growth positive for last 17 months 300,000
Total non-farm monthly employment change
284,000
246,000 251,000
250,000
227,000
223,000
220,000
220,000
202,000
200,000
157,000
150,000 121,000 120,000
112,000
110,000 96,000
100,000
84,000
85,000
54,000
50,000
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-10
Oct-10
0
However, we are still two to three “good” years away from “normal” and previous peak levels Past 40 years
Recessions:
102
1973
1981
1990
2001
2007
Percent
100
98
96
94
92 0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 Number of months after start of recession
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hiring is improving, yet only a third of jobs recovered from the recession so far
Jobs lost during recession‌
Jobs gained during recovery‌ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Private sector hiring gaining momentum; public sector remains a drag Change in '000s jobs
Private sector hiring up 3.7 million since March 2010
400 200 0 -200 -400
Public sector shed 506,000 workers since March 2010
-600 -800
Private Sector
Public Sector
-1,000 2008
2009
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
Job growth positive in both service industries (office jobs) and production industries Goods-producing
Service-producing
600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Office-using job performance outweighing overall growth by considerable amount as productivity levels snap
Office-using (PBS) jobs lost during recession‌
Office-using (PBS) jobs gained during recovery‌ Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Where the jobs are coming from…PBS leads job growth in February, helping future office gains Professional and business services Education and health services Health care and social assistance Temporary help services Leisure and hospitality Durable goods Manufacturing Goods-producing Transportation and warehousing Wholesale trade Financial activities Mining and logging Motor vehicles and parts. Nondurable goods Information Government Other services Retail trade Construction
82 71 61.1 45.2 44 31 31 24 10.6 8.4 6 6 5.6 0 -1 -6 -6 -7.4 -13 -20
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
20
40
60
February 2012 - One month net change (ths)
80
100
PBS hiring continues to drive office job growth Information
Professional and Business Services
Financial Services
150 100 50 0 -50 -100
P&BS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010 by February 2012, it represented 94.3 percent of office growth
-150 -200 -250 -300 2009
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
Temporary employment grew rapidly in February, an indicator of future office employment growth (this time around)‌ Temporary employment monthly net change
2,500
Temporary employment
60
2,400
40
2,300 2,200
20
2,100
0
2,000 -20
1,900
-40
1,800
-60
1,700
-80
1,600
-100
1,500 2009
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2010
2011
2012
Temporary employment (ths)
Monthly net change in jobs (ths)
80
Industry segmentation: It is all about jobs and tech and energy are kings
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Energy, high-tech and office using sectors outperform overall economy since 2011 Year over Year % change 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 High-tech
-11.0
Energy, Mining, and Utilities
2008
2009
Office-using industries 2010
Total non-farm 2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, economy.com
Note: Due to inconsistencies and data lags, January and February 2012 do not have all high-tech subsections aggregated.
2012
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose slightly March 3rd, yet still 10.6 percent lower than a year ago Initial claims
4-week moving average
650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000
4 week moving average below 400,000 claims (consistently) means economy is adding jobs
350,000 300,000 250,000 1-Mar-08
1-Mar-09
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, US Department of Labor
1-Mar-10
1-Mar-11
1-Mar-12
Total unemployment beginning to decline, still well above long-term average Total unemployment U-6
Ten year average
18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
White collar unemployment far below overall levels Bachelor's degree and higher
High school graduates, no college
12 10 8
8.3%
6 4
4.2%
2 0 2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Labor force participation for college grads improved in February, yet rates still low College graduates
High school graduates
79
63.5
College graduates High school grads no college
78.5
63 62.5
78
62
77.5
61.5 61
77
60.5
76.5
60 76 75.5 Jan-07
59.5 59 Jan-08
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Tech, energy and Sunbelt markets leading metro markets in total non-farm employment Seattle 2.3%
Bay Area 2.6%
Pittsburgh 2.4%
San Diego 2.2% Houston 3.0%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Tampa 2.6%
Larger Midwest and East coast markets lagging
Chicago 0.4%
Cleveland -0.2%
New York 0.6%
Philadelphia -0.2%
Atlanta 0.0% DC 0.4%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regionally, the West and South will lead employment growth through 2014 Bubble size represents total employment
Number of jobs (thousands)
Adding jobs
Job growth Q1 2012-Q4 2014
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2.00%
New York
Los Angeles Chicago
Dallas
Philadelphia Detroit
SF St. Louis Boston Pittsburgh
3.00%
4.00%
Atlanta
DC Miami
Seattle Las Vegas
5.00%
6.00% % job growth
Adding jobs Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Global Insight
Houston Phoenix
Denver 7.00%
8.00%