Why Chelsea can still qualify for the Champions League

The date is 7 January, Chelsea have just been thrashed 4-0 away to Man City in the FA Cup, and things are looking bleak for Graham Potter’s men. Fast forward to February 17th and results wise, nothing much has changed. But is there still optimism for this young Chelsea team? I would certainly argue so. Two wins in your last 14 games sounds abysmal for any team, yet alone a team who have just spent over £600 million in the last six months, but if we read in between the lines there are underlying circumstances as to why we shouldn’t take this statistic at face value. And whilst excuses are my biggest pet peeve in football, it would be silly to not analyse some of the reasons as to why Chelsea have struggled so much this season, but more importantly why they can expect the second half to improve drastically.

Firstly, the lack of availability to key players should be noted, and Potter’s inability to field his best starting line-up on a consistent basis has not helped his case. Big injuries to important players N’Golo Kante, Ben Chilwell, Reece James and Raheem Sterling have meant that Potter has been forced to adapt his system to fit in their replacements, who are nowhere near the same level of quality. However, the January recruitments have certainly helped ease the burden on squad thinness, but it is not only the fact that they are extra numbers, the new signings have injected quality and energy into a team that was crying out for reinforcements. Benoit Badiashille, Joao Felix and Enzo Fernandez have all come straight into the team playing as if they’ve been there for years, with their talents clear to see from the start. Alongside the new signings, it coincides with a period of many players returning from injuries, and all of a sudden Potter has gone from having limited options to an abundance of them. For this reason, he can be optimistic that he will finally see some consistency.

The second factor I think Graham Potter will benefit massively from in this second half of the season is time. Available midweeks have become a rarity for Chelsea in the past few years, a team who regularly compete in all competitions until the very latter stages and to give some context to this stat, 2023 will be the first calendar year Chelsea don’t play a game at Wembley since 2014. Being knocked out in the first round of both cups, their first time since 1981, will have angered many fans, but with the extremely unique circumstances of playing Manchester City away for both games, you can afford some sympathy to Potter and his players, especially considering how unlucky they were in the FA Cup tie just before the World Cup. But it’s this same World Cup that will have allowed Potter and his coaching staff to get to work at Cobham and work with individuals for a prolonged period of time, otherwise only seen in pre-seasons. The more time on the training pitch, the better, as this large squad of players gets to know and work with each other.

This ‘gelling’ period will be crucial to the future of Chelsea and will determine how many of these new signings can truly thrive in England in new conditions. As the chemistry builds on the training pitch, new connections will be formed during games, and the hope is that this leads to a more cohesive unit of players who understand each other’s strengths and weaknesses. However, this period will not be instantaneous, some of these new signings will have come from completely different environments, and with a squad so large it wouldn’t be strange if this period took longer than usual. Nevertheless, I would urge people to look at the examples of Arsenal, Brighton and Liverpool and not be too quick to come down on Potter or his squad for any faults that may arise. This rebuild will take time.

Lastly, whilst Top 4 may be one stretch too far for Chelsea this season, it is not the only way of qualifying for the Champions League, and although this may seem far-fetched, there is no reason why Chelsea couldn’t go on to win it this year. Assuming they can make it to the quarter finals, it’s only five games to that illustrious trophy. It may sound ridiculous to some, but there have been worse Chelsea teams who have pulled off the unimaginable. Furthermore, this Chelsea team have a vast amount of experience in cup competitions, making it to five of the last six FA Cup Finals, two of the last four League Cup finals, and winning four European trophies in the last four years. It is obvious it’s a squad built around dominating cup competitions, and the World Cup winner Enzo Fernandez will surely bring in extra experience after starring in Argentina’s World Cup triumph in Qatar. Nonetheless, this is a Chelsea squad who are used to winning trophies, with many National Team Captains amongst the ranks, and a decent bulk of the team who achieved UCL success only 19 months ago in Porto.

Moreover, you could argue that it has never been a more open race for that European Crown, with no obvious favourite in the picture, it is anybody’s game. Just like that, winning the Champions League, may, funnily enough, be Chelsea’s best chance of qualifying for the competition next year, just like they did in 2012 when they defied all the odds to beat Bayern Munich in their own backyard. The responsibility will fall on Graham Potter, a manager who has never previously managed in this competition, to motivate this young and exciting squad, it won’t be easy by any stretch, but this sort of achievement is one that will leave you in the club’s folklore forever, just as fans will never forget Thomas Tuchel for his achievements.

If Chelsea can pull this off, Graham Potter will bear the riches and respect, that he seems to lack from groups of the fanbase during these ununited times.