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Father of 2 P
Is the COVID-19 pandemic a blessing in disguise for Guyana’s macroeconomic recovery?
– presents golden opportunity for economic restructuring and cleaning of fiscal mess
According to the United Nations Special Report on Latin America and the Caribbean, focusing on the economic impacts of COVID-19, the region is facing the pandemic from a weaker position, compared to the rest of the world. Prior to the pandemic, it was projected that the region would grow by a maximum of 1.3% in 2020. This forecast has now been revised in view of the effects of the crisis, and GDP is now expected to fall by 1.8%.
That notwithstanding, the report acknowledged that the final economic impact would depend on the actions taken at the national, regional and global levels. The report highlighted that the region has been affected through five external transmission channels: (i) The decline in economic activity of the region’s main trading partners, and the effects of that decline: The region is heavily dependent on exports, the volume and value of which would be reduced by the global recession. The full extent of this reduction depends on the sectoral structure of each country. (ii) The drop in commodity prices: The sharp decline in those prices, and deterioration in the terms of trade, will have a strong negative impact on the income levels of Latin American economies that depend on those exports, although with significant differences among them. Contraction in global demand would play a major role in decrease in commodity prices. Further, the geopolitical crisis in the oil market led to a 24% reduction in prices in less than a week, in early March. (iii) The interruption of global value chains: The disruption of supply chains, starting with Chinese suppliers and followed by producers in Europe and the United States, would mainly affect Mexico and Brazil, whose manufacturing sectors are the largest in the region. (iv) Lower demand for tourism services: Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) in particular may be severely affected. (v) Greater risk aversion and worsening global financial conditions: This situation leads to higher demand for safe assets (for example, rates of return on United States Securities have reached historically low levels); lower demand for the region’s financial assets; and significant depreciation of countries’ currencies, as is currently the case.
Is COVID-19 a blessing in disguise for Guyana’s fiscal stability?
Over the last two years, and of recent, this column has dealt extensively with the state of the country’s finances; that is: Government expenditure and revenue, the national stock of debt, and the Government’s deposit accounts at the Central Bank. In particular, it was contended that Guyana could be on the verge of bankruptcy should certain trends of Government borrowing (from the Central Bank) and spending on consumption goods continue at the rate they were going before the onset of COVID-19; especially since those trends were coupled with a significant widening of the balance-of-payment deficit driven largely by imports of capital goods for the oil and gas-related activities, and dwindling international reserves from the equivalent of 4 or 5 months’ worth of import cover to less than two months’ worth of import cover.
These trends would certainly have induced a sharp depreciation in the exchange rate; depletion of the reserves; a mountain of domestic debt, that ought to be repaid from tax revenues; and inability to service the external debt if the international reserves are depleted to record low levels.
Fortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated closure of the borders and a halt, more or less, to global trade, except for essential items such as medical and food supplies. This, together with low oil prices, would effectively have allowed for savings in fuel imports, which are usually in excess of US$500 million. Further, a decline in the importation of other consumer goods and an upsurge in the price of gold are helping to stabilise the economy, inter alia, maintaining a stable exchange rate.
The National Recount exercise will come to an end soon, and it is expected that a legitimate Government would be installed. The road to recovery would therefore be one of the greatest priorities of any responsible Government, given the absence of resources in the current state of the political economy, and the lack of appropriate support packages thereof. The policymakers henceforth ought to recognise the opportunities present to rebuild the economy, starting with food security. It is uncertain when the pandemic would be over, but in such times of difficulty, the growing demand for food in the region presents opportunities to scale up the country’s productive capacity, and channel the appropriate investments in this sector.
On the fiscal side, the opportunity for a legitimate Government to negotiate debt forgiveness and restructuring in order to create the much-needed fiscal space to facilitate the rebuilding of the economy ought to be recognised as of paramount importance.
15 NEWS SUNDAY, MAY 31, 2020 | GUYANATIMESGY.COM O n Saturday and under immense pressure to prove their allegations of electoral fraud, A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change (APNU/AFC) spokesman Joseph Harmon made a video broadcast in which he alleged widespread electoral fraud and accused the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) of not doing enough to address their allegations.
In fact, Harmon gave some specific examples of this alleged fraud. He claimed that 352 ballots were issued for ballot box 7079 (Region Seven, Cuyuni-Mazaruni), Phillipai Primary School), but 377 ballots were discovered in the ballot boxes.
This, however, is not true, as a fact check of the Statement of Recount (SoR) for ballot box 7079 shows that 227 votes were actually cast, of which 223 were valid votes. The SoR was completed and certified by all the parties, including an APNU/AFC counting agent, on May 28 - two days before Harmon’s comment.
According to the SoR, the four rejected ballots contained one that was unmarked or voided for uncertainty, one that was marked in a way that the elector could be identified and two whereby the elector voted for more than one party.
Meanwhile, another example Harmon gave on Saturday of alleged ‘fraud’, which upon checking turned out to be untrue, was that the wrong list was found in ballot box 7003 (Region Seven, Regina’s Shop). Harmon’s claim falls apart when one checks the observation report for that ballot box, which states that box 7002 was mixed up with box 7003 at the time of the recount and that “no other error was found with this box.” Again, this report was signed off by political parties that included APNU/AFC.
Spinning lies
In a stinging response soon after Harmon’s comments, the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) slammed the coalition for continuing to spin lies in an attempt to discredit the electoral process and delay the final declaration of results of the March 2 General and Regional Elections.
The party said that it merits repeating that the APNU/AFC coalition claimed victory on the basis of the results declared prior to the start of the National Recount, embracing the fraudulent Region Four declaration. “With the recount progressing and the fraud perpetrated in Region Four being exposed, the coalition has changed its tune, now claiming electoral fraud by the PPP/C. This ludicrous position underscores the desperation of the coalition, in the face of an electoral defeat. The PPP will continue to expose the lies being peddled by the APNU/AFC coalition and will continue its efforts to ensure that the ongoing National Recount is not derailed, but completed to allow for a democratic transition of Government.”
New delaying tactics
During his video broadcast, Harmon had railed against GECOM for not “positively” responding to their allegations. According to Harmon, they have written almost a dozen letters to GECOM urging that an investigation be launched before the votes in the other regions are announced.
The PPP made it clear that from all indications, APNU/AFC is trying to trick GECOM into following it down a path to delay the declaration of the final results, by having it investigate these allegations.
“The APNU/AFC coalition seems intent on baiting the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), with its fallacious claims, into illegally following it down a path that will, again, delay the declaration of election results by another few months.”
Dead is Damion McAlmont of Lot 4/20 Wapping Lane, New Amsterdam, Berbice. He was employed by Toolsie Persaud Quarry and worked as a sailor on a tug and barge.
…coalition trying to trick GECOM into new delaying tactic – PPP
A38-year-old sailor, a father of two, is now dead after he reportedly fell overboard at the Toolsie Persaud Quarry’s St Mary Wharf, Essequibo River, Region Seven (Cuyuni-Mazaruni), and drowned in the wee hours of Saturday.
According to Police reports, McAlmont was on the barge when it pulled up to the St Mary Wharf at around 02:00h on Saturday. Another sailor, who was also on the vessel, told investigators that he was on the right side of the barge pulling the bow rope when he saw McAlmont running to the right side of the barge and falling into the river.
He said he plunged overboard in an effort to rescue McAlmont but was unsuccessful.
A search was subsequently launched and Police said at about 06:00h, his body was found next to the barge.
“Further, what [is] troubling is that Mr Harmon stated that the Police Commissioner, who is the Chief Immigration Officer, has confirmed that people who migrated voted at the March 2020 elections. This is so, especially in light of the fact that the PPP has found scores of people currently in Guyana, who were named by the coalition as having migrated,” the PPP also said.
On Friday, former Attorney General Anil Nandlall had urged that when the recount is completed, the results must be used to declare a winner. He had called it a “tragedy of gigantic proportions” if, after all the time and effort spent on the recount, the results were not used.
As it is, the declarations held in abeyance contain the fraudulent declarations from Region Four Returning Officer, Clairmont Mingo, which the recount has already exposed as not credible. Persons in APNU/AFC have nevertheless advocated for GECOM to use these discredited results. Fact check destroys APNU/AFC's claims of electoral fraud
The body was retrieved and examined but no marks of violence were seen, Police said. It was then taken to the Bartica Regional Hospital and is awaiting a post-mortem examination.
Meanwhile, when Guyana Times reached out to the family of the deceased, they refused to comment. Investigations are ongoing. Father of 2 drowns in Essequibo River
Dead: Damion McAlmont The observation report for ballot box 7003 Fact: 223 votes were cast for ballot box 7079 and not 377 or even 352, as claimed by Joseph Harmon
16 NEWS SUNDAY, MAY 31, 2020 | GUYANATIMESGY.COM Another Palms resident succumbs to COVID-19
Guyana recorded yet another death as a result of the novel coroPalms Geriatric Home. He died on Saturday morning at the Georgetown Public
…cases rise to 152
navirus disease (COVID-19) – making it the 12th fatality.
Dead is 87-year-old Daymon John, a resident of Hospital.
Caretaker Public Health Minister, Volda Lawrence confirmed the death hours
later, stating that he died as a result of COVID-19 complications.
For Saturday, the Ministry’s dashboard showed that there were two new cases of the virus, which amounted to a total of 152 positives.
Some 1604 persons were tested to which there were 1452 negatives. There were 67 recoveries, 73 active cases in institutional isolation, two patients in the COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and 24 persons in institutional quarantine.
The elderly man is the second death to be reported at the facility; and the second one in less than one week.
On May 1, Bhaneshwar Ramdial was the first resident of the Palms Geriatric Home to die from the disease. The elderly man was admitted to the Georgetown Public Hospital after he was suspected of having the virus. It was reported that he presented with all of the symptoms and because of his age and other factors, those symptoms became severe. He
Two deaths were reported from the Palms Geriatric Home
died just a few hours after he was admitted a patient at the hospital.
A test conducted posthumously revealed that the elderly Ramdial was positive for coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, the Public Health Ministry did not make the death public until May 5 – four days after.
The man’s death had raised many questions, given that the Home caters for a number of senior residents, all of whom have some form of pre-existing conditions namely, diabetes, cholesterol and hypertension.
Soon after, officials decided to conduct testing on sus
pected cases, of which several turned up positive. This has caused the administrators of the Palms Geriatric Home to place a number of staff and residents under quarantine. The Home also improved its sanitisation protocols.
200 Palms residents tested
Saturday, it was reported that at least 200 residents at the Palms Geriatric Home have been tested for the coronavirus disease. That figure is about 50 per cent of the occupants at the home.
Director of Social Services, Wentworth Tanner stated that efforts were being made to have all of the residents tested in phases.
Over the past weeks, six new patients, all female, have tested positive, taking the total cases at the Palms to over 10.
Guyana’s other deaths are 59-year-old Ratna Baboolall, 38-year-old Jermaine Ifill, 78-year-old Osa Collins, 59-year-old Shadrach Stoll, 38-year-old Deryck Jaisingh, 45-year-old Lennox Williams, 49-yearold visually-impaired Sydney Trellis, 77-year-old Colonel John Percy Leon Lewis and Vincent Torres.
Torres died last Sunday after being admitted to the Kumaka District Hospital, Santa Rosa, with breathing complications and other symptoms. A COVID-19 test was conducted on the man, which revealed that he was positive.
From the World Health Organisation’s data, there are 5,701,337 reported cases with 357,688 deaths. In the Americas, there are 2,613,092 cases with 151,212 fatalities.
17 NEWS SUNDAY, MAY 31, 2020 | GUYANATIMESGY.COM No complete lockdown – COVID-19 Task Force
Chief Executive Officer of the National COVID-19 Task Force, Joseph Harmon on Saturday clarified that there will be no complete lockdown, as he urged Guyanese to halt their panic-buying spree.
Since mid-March, curfew and partial lockdown measures were announced to curtail the spread of COVID-19 among the population.
With new cases detected almost every day, followed by 12 deaths, there were talks of a national shutdown. But Harmon explained that the Task Force is only considering an extension of the current measures, which will expire on June 3.
“There is a rumour out there that there is going to be a complete lockdown in Guyana from next week…I want to make this very clear that the National Coronavirus Task Force has not considered a national lockdown. What we have before us is a consideration for the extension of the current measures beyond 3rd June.”
According to him, the ‘rumours’ are causing Guyanese to flock the marketplaces for goods and other products, disregarding social distancing guidelines.
“This rumour is forcing people to do panic-buying and is creating unnecessary crowd in our marketplaces and in place where people have to shop. I, therefore, call on all Guyanese to observe the guidelines of social distancing, washing of hands, wearing of masks in the public and particularly to what is gazetted in the orders as essential services. I trust that we pay attention to these and once we do that, I am confident that we will see this through,” the CEO highlighted.
Currently, an 18:00h to 06:00h curfew is in place among other emergency measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus in Guyana.
On Friday, Country Representative of the Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO), Dr William Adu-Krow advised that the curfew and partial lockdown should be continued at least for another two weeks, before reconsidering any opening.
“We have measures, if enforced, could take us a long way. If not enforced, then we are likely to have problems. If I had my own way, I’d probably extend the measures for about two weeks and then enforce them; and then begin a phased approach. That would be my recommenda
…as CEO calls on Guyanese to cease panic-buying NCTF CEO, Joseph Harmon
tion. It is up to Government to decide.”
The NCTF was set up by caretaker President David Granger back in March to coordinate Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is currently headed by Moses Nagamootoo as its Chairman and Joseph Harmon as its Chief Executive Officer.
Harmon was appointed to the post only last month, after being removed as Director General at the Ministry of the Presidency. He was handed most of the duties that previously fell under Nagamootoo’s portfolio.
Of recent, allegations have been mounting that the caretaker APNU/AFC coalition, through the Task Force, is using COVID-19 as a political tool to hang on to power, especially when it comes to issues regarding the ongoing National Recount of the votes cast on March 2.
