IESO REPORT FINDS

A report produced by Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) finds that the province is in a strong position to decarbonize its electricity grid, adding that a moratorium on new natural gas generation could be feasible as soon as 2027.

The Pathways to Decarbonization report is one of three produced by the IESO at the request of the Minister of Energy and which highlight the progress being made to prepare Ontario’s electricity system for the future.

“With one of the cleanest electricity grids in North America, Ontario has a real advantage in enabling the decarbonization of the broader economy,” said IESO president and CEO Lesley Gallinger. “The process of fully eliminating emissions from the grid itself, however, will be a significant and complex undertaking. Through our ongoing commitment to work with a wide range of partners to assess risks and overcome challenges, we believe it is possible to achieve an orderly transition toward a decarbonized electricity system that remains reliable, affordable and sustainable.”

The report finds that Ontario could begin moving toward a decarbonized grid starting with a moratorium on new gas generation beginning in 2027, as long as sufficient non-emitting supply were in place to meet growing electricity demand. By 2035, the system could be less reliant on the natural gas fleet, lowering emissions by 60 percent below the IESO’s original forecasts.

The report also finds that attaining a decarbonized electricity sector by 2050, alongside aggressive electrification targets, would require a system more than double the size it is today at an estimated cost of around $400 billion. These costs could be offset by lower overall energy costs as consumers reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and through energy efficiency.

Ontario’s electricity system comprises about three percent of economy-wide emissions.

“This report clearly illustrates the scope and magnitude of work necessary to grow and decarbonize the electricity system to support electrification and a thriving economy,” said Ontario Power Generation President and CEO Ken Hartwick. “A mix of generation technologies is consistent with OPG’s ‘all-hands-on-deck’ approach to meeting growing energy needs, and we look forward to advancing much-needed new generation in partnership with Indigenous communities.”

The IESO has identified a number of “no regret” actions that could be taken as the province moves towards decarbonization. They include: continuing competitive efforts to acquire non-emitting supply; expanding energy-efficiency programming post-2024; beginning planning and siting work for nuclear, storage, hydro and transmission projects that require long-lead times to develop; galvanizing collaboration amongst stakeholders; and continuing support for lowcarbon fuels such as hydrogen.

The two other IESO reports demonstrate the work already underway to prepare Ontario’s electricity system for the future.

The 2022 Annual Planning Outlook forecasts electricity demand will increase almost two percent annually over the next two decades, driven by economic growth and electrification.

Meanwhile, the 2021–2024 Conservation and Demand Management Framework Mid-Term Review presents a plan for future energy and demand savings, including new programming, to help meet emerging system needs in 2025 and beyond.