IMF increases 2023 growth forecast with China reopening, strength in US, Europe

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly, due to “surprisingly resilient” demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs, and the reopening of China’s economy after Beijing abandoned its strict COVID-19 restrictions.

The IMF said global growth would still fall to 2.9% in 2023, from 3.4% in 2022, but its latest World Economic Outlook forecasts mark an improvement over an October prediction of 2.7% growth this year, with warnings that the world could easily tip into recession.

For 2024, the IMF said global growth would accelerate slightly to 3.1%, but this is a tenth of a percentage point below the October forecast, as the full impact of steeper central bank interest rate hikes slows demand.

IMF chief economist

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said recession risks had subsided, and central banks are making progress in controlling inflation, but more work was needed to curb prices, and new disruptions could come from further escalation of the war in Ukraine, and China’s battle against COVID-19.

“We have to sort of be prepared to expect the unexpected, but it could well represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out, and then inflation declining,” Gourinchas told reporters of the 2023 outlook.

Strong Demand

In its 2023 GDP forecasts, the IMF said it now expects U.S. GDP growth of what is available for them to invest in, and the deals available. So, how we are positioning as Dequity, going into the private equity space, is to really fill that gap while engaging the Diaspora more strategically, educating them about the opportunities available, and providing them with options that they can also invest in to help in building the Caribbean region.

“On the reverse, we also look at their businesses to see how we can inject capital to help them grow as well. We have formed a separate entity, Dequity Capital Management USA, and we have also structured a private fund of which are currently on the last leg of registering in Cayman. The focus of this company and fund will be solely on [developing] Diaspora opportunities,” she said.

Conceding that the Diaspora stands ready to make greater investments, Alison Roach Wilson, consul general for Jamaica in New York, said that several members of her community continue to remain on the lookout for emerging opportunities in a number of areas locally, particularly real estate. Now in the process of finalising plans to launch a real estate investment forum in May, Roach Wilson said the main focus of the event will be geared towards educating diasporians in New York about the real estate market in Jamaica, and to get them investing.

“The Jamaican Diaspora in the US, particularly those in the states I am responsible for, are flushed with cash. As consul general, I have also been making the rounds in connecting with several of them to get the investments going,” she stated.

She further pointed to an alumni association as another area rich in social capital that will be targeted for a longterm partnership with the local social stock exchange in the coming months.

Working with local bodies such as Jamaica Promotions Corporation and the JSE on a series of roadshows and sensitisation sessions, consul general in Florida, Oliver Mair, said that at the diplomatic level they continue to work with members to cater to the varied needs.

“Sometimes we have large investors who require a little more hand-holding, so there are times we will fly down with them. We love to see the investments and we are a part of sharing the good news of what’s taking place across islands so that the diasporians can see what is taking place and will want to invest,” Mair said. (Jamaica Observer)

1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October, and following 2.0% growth in 2022. It cited stronger-than-expected consumption and investment in the third quarter of 2022, a robust labour market, and strong consumer balance sheets.

It said the euro zone had made similar gains, with 2023 growth for the bloc now forecast at 0.7%, versus 0.5% in the October outlook, following 3.5% growth in 2022. The IMF said Europe had adapted to higher energy costs more quickly than expected, and an easing of energy prices had helped the region.

Britain was the only major advanced economy the IMF predicted to be in recession this year, with a 0.6% fall in GDP as households struggle with rising living costs, including for energy and mortgages. CHINA

Continued on page 14