Melandi Janki’s response leaves more questions than answers [Part II]

Dear Editor, HERE are some critical questions that come to mind for which the transparency advocate ought to provide answers to the Guyanese public:

1) It appears that she is suing Exxon and the GoG on behalf of the Guyanese people’s interest by way of protecting the environment. What is she suing Exxon for exactly?

2) Is it a declaration? If so, what are those declarations?

3) Is it for monetary compensation on behalf of the Guyanese people? If so, how much?

4) And if she wins this case, what will she do with the money she is suing for, if that is the case?

5) Will the money be deposited into a special fund?

6) Will it be transferred to the Consolidated Fund?

7) Will it be used in community development projects?

Notwithstanding the foregoing, for arguments sake let’s examine the merits and demerits of the attorney’s reasoning for the lawsuit against ExxonMobil–that is, fossil fuel is dangerous to the environment and that the risks it poses to mankind are deadly.

There is no doubt that fossil fuels are not climate friendly, and that the world needs to transition to cleaner sources of energy.

It is within this framework that the development and exploitation of the resource need to be done in a sustainable manner and in a way that minimizes the environmental risks. These are also the new guiding principles upon which the global industry operates.

In spite of this, the international attorney and transparency advocate opted to pursue an extreme position in addressing these issues with the oil companies in two ways: (By exaggerating the risks of the operations without credible scientific evidence and driving an extremist campaign for the oil companies to cease oil production in Guyana (only).

In order to rationalise this view, a reasonable question to ask is what would happen to the world and to the life of people if all of the oil companies were to cease oil production forthwith? To lend context to this notion, let’s examine an overview of the global energy-transition agenda and its potential impact on the future of the global oiland-gas industry.

The global transportation sector will be one of the main drivers of demand for crude over the next 30–50 years, and at least 40 per cent of the worlds energy needs will need to be supplied by oil and gas by 2050. Hereunder stated are some interesting facts:

GLOBAL STOCK OF COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT

• The global commercial aircraft fleet stood at 29,000 in 2020

• Estimated to grow by four per cent annually to reach 39,000 by 2028

• Annual production is 1,000

• It takes five-six years on average to build an aircraft, in some cases, 10 years

• To replace all the aircraft in the world it will take 29,000/1000 = 29 years to build and replace, plus 10 years to develop electric planes total number of years to replace all the aircraft glob- ally to electricity will be approximately 39 years

GLOBAL STOCK OF CARS

• As of 2020, this figure is some 1.2 billion cars globally, of which 7.2 million are electric cars (six per cent of global cars are electric)

• Global average rate of production for electric cars is 2.1 million, which means it will take 571 years to replace all the cars in the world to electric cars

GLOBAL STOCK OF TRUCKS/COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

• As of 2020, an estimated 425 million of which 27.2 million or 6.4 per cent are electric commercial vehicles

• The annual average production rate of electric commercial vehicles is 6,000, at which rate it will take 70,833 years to replace all the commercial vehicles in the world to electricity at the current rate of production.

GLOBAL

Stock Of Ships

• As of 2019 total world fleet of ships stood at 95,402

• It takes about 18 months to build a ship

• Ship orders per year is about 1,000

• Therefore, it will take 95 years to convert the global stock of ships to ‘greener’ ships at the current rate of production

Global Energy Transformation

2050

• Oil and gas are still forecast to meet more than 50 per cent of the world’s energy needs by the end of 2040

• Renewable energy needs to be scaled up at least six times faster for the world to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2018).

Contextual Summary

The global transportation sector is one of the main drivers of global demand for crude oil products. If the world, therefore, stops extracting crude oil and indeed leaves all the fossil in the ground tomorrow – then it will take 39 years to replace the global stock of commercial aircraft to electric aircraft; 500+ years to replace all the cars in the world; 70,833 years to replace all commer- cial vehicles, both light and heavy, which include trucks or increase global output by 142,000 per cent to bring down the number of years to 50; and 95 years to replace all the ships in the world, at the current rate of production.

By 2050, renewable energy can make up 60 per cent of the world’s final energy consumption, provided that renewable-energy investments are scaled up by at least six times (IRENA, 2018).

Consequently, if the world economy fails to scale up renewables and other alternative sources of energy by six times, it will take more than 100 years for the world economy to transition to at least 60-70 per cent alternative sources of energy and over the next 100 years to fully transition to 100 per cent clean/alternative sources of energy.

I end by asking this question again: what is the international transparency advocate’s true modus operandi?

Yours sincerely Joel

Bhagwandin Financial & Economic Analyst