International education in the post-pandemic world 王振民 博士谈疫情后国际教育

International education in the post-pandemic world 王振民博士谈疫情后国际教育

International education in the post-pandemic world (Part 1)

王振民博士谈后疫情时代的国际教育 ( 上 )

by Zhenmin Wang

疫情对教育产业有哪些影响？

王振民博士说， 说到疫情对“教育产业”的影响， 大家听到、读到或看到的主要还是疫情给国际教 育或者说是留学行业带来的影响。

这个影响有多大？我们看看美英澳 3 个国际学生 最多的国家的情况。尽管美国实施 lockdown 措 施时大多数的国际学生是在美国本土的， 但是据 报道，疫情给美国高等教育财政上带来的直接损

失已经超过 10 几亿美元，明年预计会达到 45 亿 美元；据英国大学学院联盟发布的报告预测，疫 情使英国的大学和学院在国际学生以及本土学生 身上，仅在学费这一块明年就会损失 25 亿英镑， Universities UK 更是警告明年国际学生学费也 许会锐减三分之一，达到 70 亿英镑；澳大利亚 Universities Australia 的计算模型预测，疫情会 使澳大利亚大学国际学生的学费损失 46 亿澳元， 而且单从国际学生的学费收入来讲，疫情带来的 影响会持续发酵，到 2023 年国际学生的学费推 算会锐减 160 亿澳元。

Let's look at the situation in three countries who host the most international students, United States, United Kingdom and Australia. Although most of the international students were onshore when the lockdown measures were implemented in the United States, it is believed that the direct losses caused by the pandemic to the higher education sector have already exceeded US$1 billion and will reach to US$4.5 billion next year. In united Kingdom, a report from the University and College Union (UCU) forecasts the sector could lose around £2.5bn next year in tuition fees alone, along with the loss of 30,000 university jobs, if international and domestic students not returning to campus. However, Universities UK has warned a potential drop in income of £7bn in the coming academic year, a third of all tuition fees from international students. In Australia, University Australia estimates its members will lose up to A44.6bn in revenue this year and will put at risk 21,000 jobs in the next six month. And according to a new modelling by Universities Australia, the HE sector could lose $16bn by 2023.

那么，中国作为世界上国际学生第一大来源国， 情况又是怎样呢？我们就先看一下留学机构以及 相关培训机构的情况，因为它们绝对可以说是这 个行业兴衰的“晴雨表”。据有关报道，此次疫 情造成国内近 40% 的教育培训机构倒闭，众多培 训机构、公司面临资金链断裂，留学行业 60% 的 机构特、别是中小型机构受到不同程度的重创， 行业损失数 10 亿。 So, what is the situation in China as the world's largest source of international students? Let's first look to the education agents and related training institutions, because they are no doubt the "barometer" which tells the rise and fall of the industry. According to relevant reports, COVID-19 has caused the closure of nearly 40% of language and training institutions, and many companies are facing the break in their capital chains. In addition, 60% of the education agents, especially those small and medium-sized companies have been heavily hit by this “storm” that have caused losses of billions (CNY).

王振民博士接着说，我们不仅仅要看到疫情对国 际教育、留学行业的影响， 我们更应看到疫情对 整个教育 sector 的重创。据联合国发布的报告， 此次疫情已导致全球 188 个国家和地区停课，超 过 15 亿儿童和青少年的学习受到影响，这个损失 则是无法从财政上进行统计或用钱来衡量的。当 然，疫情不仅仅是使教育行业受到了重创，受到 重创的还有其它行业， 比如旅游、餐饮、服务业、 零售业、航空业等，有些行业受到的打击也许更大。

When talking about the impact of COVID-19, we should not only see the international education industry, but to see the big picture of the whole education sector. According to United Nations, COVID-19 has caused shutdown of schools in 188 countries and regions around the world, which affected in total 1.5 billion children and adolescents. The loss cannot be measured financially or in monetary term. We should also see beyond the education sector, there are many more industries that have also been hit badly. For example, the tourism, catering, services, retail, and aviation industry. Some of them may have been hit more severely than the international education history.

如何看待中国教育部发布的赴澳留学预警

王博士说，他当然第一时间注意到了中国国家教 育部继文化与旅游部发布公告后发出的赴澳留学

预警。王博士说他还同时注意到了网上和朋友圈 里发布、传播的中国国家教育部宣布终止与英美 澳加等高校合作的文章。

Following the announcement from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism China, Ministry of Education also issued its warning to Chinese students who are considering to return to or to commence their study in Australia in July 2020. This warning has widely spread in the media both onshore and offshore.

关于中国国家教育部宣布终止与英美澳加等高校 合作的“新闻”实际上是一篇 2018 年的“老黄历” 了，此时被以“新闻”发布出来，事出反常比有妖。 发布者是为一博眼球、赚取点击率，还是为“推 波助澜”只有他自己最清楚。

In the meantime, the announcement by MoE to terminate some international education cooperation programs with Australian universities was also seen on news and social media. This announcement actually isn’t new but an “old stuff” back in 2018. Obviously it was brought back as “news” on purpose.

事实上，由于各种形式的国际教育活动不断的繁 荣不断的增多，对国际教育质量问题的担忧早已 成为业界和各国政府的一个主要的关注。在过去 的十几年时间里有超过 130 多家的国际质量保证 机构在世界上超过 100 多个国家已经建立起来， 无论是教育的输出还是输入国家对国际教育项目 实行必要的监管，都是对保证质量和学生的切身 利益有百利而无一害的。

In fact, due to the rapid development of various forms of international education activities, quality concerns have long become a major issue concerning the industry and government agencies in many countries. These concerns resulted in the establishment of more than 130 international quality assurance organizations in more than 100 countries across the world about 15 years ago. This not only ensured the implementation of quality assurance to govern the international education programs but also helped to protect the interests of international students.

关于教育部发布的留学预警，王博士说他认为， 从字面上“全球新冠肺炎疫情扩散蔓延势头没有 得到有效控制，国际旅行和开放校园存在风险。 疫情期间，澳大利亚发生多起针对亚裔的歧视性 事件。教育部提醒广大留学人员做好风险评估， 当前谨慎选择赴澳或返澳学习”没有什么不妥。 有人说这个旅行警告毫无意义，由于边境管控， 现在没人可以真正赴澳学习或旅行。但请不要忘 记，中国政府疫情期间陆续派出包机和临时航班 从海外接回受困的中国公民和留学生回家花费不 菲，无论从公民人身安全和经济角度出发，中国 政府应该都不愿意类似的情况重复发生、更多发 生。

With regard to the purpose of the warning issued by MoE, literally nothing is inappropriate. Some people claimed that the warning is meaningless, as no one actually

can come into Australia whether on student or tourist visa due to the border restrictions imposed by the Australian government. This is true. However, the Chinese government had put enormous human resource as well as a significant financial contribution on flying back their citizens and overseas students caught offshore due to the pandemic, they definitely do not want to see this happening again both for the safety of their people and for financial purpose.

国际教育对于澳大利亚不仅仅是校园里有没有留 学生的问题。国际教育及其相关的个人旅行是澳 大利亚继铁矿石和煤之后的第三大出口“产品”， 一年（2018/19 年度）为澳大利亚经济带来 376 亿澳元的收入，而中国学生的贡献占其三分之一 还多。国际教育究竟是不是两国博弈的“棋子”、 是不是中国政府为两国“角力”打出的“一张牌”， 这个预警向国人及澳大利亚要传递什么样的信息， 人们，特别是澳大利亚政府与国际教育行业如何 解读就“见仁见智”了。

For Australia, international education is not just about having overseas students on university campus but it’s the third largest export industry after iron ore and coal. International education and related personal travel generated almost A$38 billion in revenue to Australia’s economy in 2018/19, and created 130,000 jobs. Of which, the contribution from Chinese students accounted for more than one-third. So whether international education was used by the Chinese government as a "chess piece" on the board or a “playing card” , and what kind of message they wanted to send through this warning to their people or Australian, the interpretation is totally upon individual’s, especially the Australian government’s own judgement.

王博士还说，他非常理解澳州政府不认可澳州不 安全（一些人对此的解读）的说法及其对此的失望。 不过，业界、澳州社会以及澳州政府也确实该藉此， 就如何保护国际学生免遭种族歧视的言行和暴力 行为拿出有力、有效的措施。 It is understandable that the Australian government and the industry were disappointed by this warning and regarded it as leverage used by the Chinese government over the dispute with the Australia this may represent the interpretation by some people. True or not, the industry, the community, and the Australian government should indeed take a strong and effective measures to stop any violence and discrimination against international students even though they are individual cases.

澳中在国际教育方面能否持续地保持并进一步的 发展，很大程度上取决于两国关系以及学生所接 受国际教育所带给他们的结果和他们对国际教育 的经历和感受。如果这些问题能够得到足够的关 注和妥善的解决，何愁目前困境不会“柳暗花明” 呢？

Whether international education can sustain and continue to develop, depends largely on the relationship between the two countries and the personal experience of international students. If these issues are addressed and resolved appropriately, international education will have a bright future indeed.

功不可没的应对措施——网课

王振民博士说，疫情没有让各行各业“束手待毙”， 大家都纷纷想办法力争将疫情造成的冲击和影响 降至最低。对此，教育行业更是“当仁不让”、 积极应对，采取“停课不停学”的策略。

all industries have chosen to respond to the pandemic actively by finding ways to minimize the impact. International education industry, in this regard, is seen to assume a leading role and adopting the “shut-downthe-school-but-not-the-learning” strategy via delivering courses online.

那什么是“停课不停学”呢，也就是采取网络授 课形式， 全球约有 1 亿学生开始了网络上课。学 生和家长以及社会对此给与了高度的评价。也有 人认为网课今后是否会成为教育的主要模式。王 博士回答说，网课在目前这个特定的时期对教育、 对社会的贡献应该说“功不可没”，但是从长久 来看，网课是不会取代传统的实际课堂而成为学 校教育的主要模式的。

It is reported that over 100 million students worldwide have managed to continue their study with their schools online. This strategy is highly regarded by many students, parents, and the community. Some people believe perhaps online study should play a major role in future education. Online delivery no doubt has played a vital role in educating students during this particular pandemic period. However in the long term, online study will not replace the traditional “actual” classrooms becoming the mainstay of schooling. This assumption is based on a review of the origin and the development of online education, as well as the advantages and disadvantages it has.

为什么这么说呢？王博士从网课的兴起和发展、 以及网课的利弊方面进行了解释。王博士说，网 络教育应大致起源于 19 世纪中叶的英国的函授教 育。进入 20 世纪 70 年代以后 , 在英国开放大学 创新精神的鼓舞下，世界许多国家都先后掀起了 兴办远程教育的热潮。中国的远程教育基本经过 了函授教育、广播电视教育和现代远程教育三个 发展阶段。中国的广播电视大学应该是我们这一 代人最熟悉不过的了。1977 年恢复高考，570 万 人只录取了 27.3 万人，录取率不到 5%，广播电 视大学帮助许多年轻人圆了大学梦。

The origin of online education today can be traced back to the schooling by mail by correspondence schools in England in the mid-19th century. As time entered into the 1970s, inspired by the initiative spirit of the Open University in the United Kingdom, many countries in the world have set off a wave of distance education. Australia's large distances and widely distributed population has meant that distance education has been an important part of its history which is believed to have started in 1910s. China too, started its first sort of distance education in 1910s and since then it has basically gone through three stages of development: correspondence education, radio and television education, and modern distance education via online platforms. China’s Radio and Television University is the most familiar distance education to the generation who witnessed the resume of the College Entrance Examination. In 1977, only 273,000 out of 5.7 million young people were admitted into universities, the admission rate was as low as less than 5%. It was the Radio and TV Universities that helped many young people realize their university dreams in China.

随着世界科学技术的发展特别是现代信息技术的 突飞猛进，以互联网为主要载体的网络教育打破 了时空界限 , 为学生提供自主学习和个体化学习 的条件, 使教育实现了远程交互学习和资源共享， 一定程度上解决了我们教育资源不均和教育不公 平的问题，也推动了我们的教育和教学的改革。 这些都是我们网络教育的贡献和优势。

With the development of science and technology in the world, especially the rapid advancement of modern information technology, online education with the internet as the main carrier has broken the boundaries of time and space. Students hence were provided with the convenience for autonomous learning and individualized learning. This enabled interactive learning and sharing resources in remote areas to be a reality.

牛，不仅在国内很牛，也让世界很多大学难“望 其项背”，可是一所或几所即便是多所大学都能 如此也不能代表网络教育在全球各地，各个层次 的教育应用中没有问题。

So to some extent, online education has solved the problems of equality in education and unevenness in its resources distribution. Online education also helped to stimulate reforms in teaching and learning. These are definitely the advantages of online education, however, there are also disadvantages of online education.

也就是说，在这些“利”的另一面，网络教育也 还是有其“弊”的一面的。比如说，虽然我们学 校和教育机构可以提供互联网教育，但是在互联 网服务薄弱和费用高的国家，网络教育还是不大 行得通的。联合国教科文组织披露，在停课学生中， 一半学生（约 8.26 亿）家里没有电脑，43%（7.06 亿）的学生家中没有互联网连接。虽说这主要是 在欠发达和落后国家， 但就中国来说，一些互联 网课程，比如学习慕课（MOOC）的学生也主要 分布在一线城市和教育发达城市。

For example, although in theory schools and other educational institutions can deliver their courses online; in practice, some countries with weak internet services and high costs, online delivery is still not feasible. According to UNESCO, half of those students (approximately 826 million) affected by recent shutdowns of schools do not have a computer at home, and 43% of them (706 million) do not have an internet connection at home. Although this is mainly the case in underdeveloped countries, even in China, where internet services are greatly regarded, some internet courses, such as MOOC course, are also mainly distributed in their first-tier or highly developed cities.

此外，虽然理论上“我们可以通过网络把我们的 课程送达到世界上的任何一个地方” （我们教育 部一位 IT 负责人讲的），但是网络覆盖、网络速度、 设备质量等都会影响实际的教学效果。我们在一 个大楼内开网络会议有时还会出现问题呢，更何 况千里之外，万里之遥呢。还有，有些课程也不 很适合网络教学。其它还有，比如学生的自律问题。 有些学生实际课堂上都不听讲，你会指望他网络 上积极参与吗。再者，还有情感交流问题，网络 上情感总是欠一点“温度”的。这就像我们有些 家长慨叹的，虽然视频上可以和孩子见面但就是 “触摸不到 （untouchable）啊！。

Although in theory, an IT expert at DfE claimed that we can deliver courses to any point in the world through the network, but network coverage, network frequency, equipment quality, etc. will affect the actual teaching effect. We sometimes experienced problems when holding web conferences even in the same building, let alone the distance of thousand miles away. In addition, some courses themselves perhaps are not very suitable for online learning. Other factors include, for example, student’s self-discipline. Some students do not engage in the actual classroom, how can you expect them to actively participate in the online classroom? Further, online schooling is seen as less engaging as warmness is hard to be felt. As some parents sighed, although they can do video calls to their child all the time, they are simply just “untouchable", they can’t hug them.

王博士说， 打个比方，也许不恰当。这就有点像 看重大体育赛事或大型演唱会， 电视、网络上都 可以看，为什么还一定要去场地呢？要的就是那 种气氛、那种感觉！所以说，网课无疑是传统教 育的一个重要补充形式但不会成为学校教育的主 要模式。他们可以互补但不可互相替代。

Online schooling is somehow like viewing a major sport or music event on TV or the internet. It is viewable but people are yet still eager to attend the venue. Because, people want the atmosphere at the event venue, and people want to be part of it and feel it! Therefore, online study is undoubtedly an important supplementary of traditional education but it won’t become the main channel of schooling. They complement each other but can’t replace each other!