Issuu

Weekly Report September 25th, 2026

Hot Topics USMCA TRADE TALKS

Mexico and the United States postponed the fourth USMCA joint-review round, planned for late September in Washington, to make room for President Xi Jinping’s U.S. visit and the G20 trade ministerial in Milwaukee on September 30–October 1. Undersecretary Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez said daily work with USTR and Commerce continues and a new date is likely in October. After Washington declined a 16-year renewal in July, the pact is now on annual reviews. USTR Jamieson Greer called Mexico a “quite pragmatic” partner that keeps talks private and has already delivered changes, including the Aluminum Trade Monitor (MoCAL-MX) launched September 18 with an updated steel monitor. The tools cover 42 aluminum lines and require melt-and-pour origin on the customs pedimento via VUCEM. Greer warned that Chinese or Vietnamese goods processed in Mexico or Canada to claim USMCA treatment are “not a good outcome,” citing an estimated $67 billion in 2025 transshipments. Mexican steel and aluminum still face 50% Section 232 tariffs. President Sheinbaum said Mexico will buy more U.S. goods to shrink a record July U.S. goods deficit of $26.3 billion, as Mexican shipments hit $60.5 billion against $34.2 billion in U.S. exports, led by electronics and AIrelated equipment. Secretary Ebrard called managing that surge a “major” challenge under Trump’s tariff pressure. Source: Bloomberg, Forbes.

IMCO STATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX 2026

IMCO’s 20th State Competitiveness Index, released September 21, ranks Mexico’s 32 entities on 53 indicators in six subindexes. Mexico City kept first place for the 20th year and is the only entity, with Querétaro, rated “very high.” Querétaro jumped four spots to second; Nuevo León held third; Coahuila rose three places to fourth; Baja California Sur slipped three to fifth. Quintana Roo posted the largest gain, up 12 places to ninth; Nayarit rose eight to 14th and Campeche six to 13th. San Luis Potosí entered the top 10. Guerrero remains last, ahead of Oaxaca and Michoacán. Chihuahua, Hidalgo, and Sinaloa each fell seven places. IMCO honored ten states for two decades of strength, including export-heavy Chihuahua (exports equal 108% of GDP) and Baja California (78.6%). National labor informality is still 54.6%. Own-source revenues average only 13.8% of state income. Only 27.4% of people feel safe, and the dark figure of unreported crime is 92.9%. Director Valeria Moy framed the ranking as a call for continuity rather than one-off gains. Source. IMCO

U.S. DIESEL EXPORTS AND MEXICO’S SUPPLY President Trump has directed his team to weigh a ban or restriction on diesel exports, with a decision coming “fast, one way or the other.” Speaking at the UN, Trump said the United States “produces a lot of diesel” and that holding shipments back “could have a small effect” on record U.S. pump prices driven by the Middle East war. National gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon; retail diesel hit $6.28 a gallon on September 14, up 5.4% week-on-week and 68% year-on-year. Senate Republican leader John Thune said he was “open to exploring” an export ban. Mexico imports about 49% of its diesel, almost all from the United States. National demand is near 470,000 barrels per day; Pemex covers the rest. Global diesel is tight after Russian refinery strikes, Chinese export cuts, and Strait of Hormuz disruption; the American Petroleum Institute estimates the world is processing about 5 million barrels a day less crude than a year earlier. Hacienda reactivated an IEPS stimulus last seen in 2022 and holds a voluntary 27-peso-per-liter cap with retailers. Moody’s Renzo Merino warned that a U.S. export curb would force Mexico to buy pricier barrels and complicate fiscal consolidation. Source: La Jornada, (2)

Hot Topics US HEMISPHERIC SECURITY In his UN General Assembly speech, President Trump called Mexico the “epicenter” of cartel violence in Latin America and said it is “unacceptable” for the United States to share a 2,000mile border with territory “dominated by the cartels.” He urged Mexico to “retake control of its land from the enemies of humanity,” compared traffickers to “the ISIS of the Western Hemisphere,” and said they should be treated as terrorists. He also claimed “very large” steps with the Mexican government, which “does not want the cartels either.” White House antinarcotics official Sara Carter later warned that if Mexico does not act, Washington “will not sit by” and will pursue politicians tied to cartels on either side of the border. On the same day, the State Department issued a Joint Statement on Defending Hemispheric Sovereignty under a “Shield of the Americas” banner. Signatories were the United States plus Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago. Mexico is not listed. The statement names 24 “narco-terrorist” groups—including CJNG, Sinaloa, Gulf, Cartel del Noreste, Nueva Familia Michoacana, Juárez, and Cárteles Unidos—and pledges asset freezes, visa bans, and criminal liability for material support. Parties also intend to request an OAS consultation under the Rio Treaty. Pillars are economic screening, security cooperation, and multilateral coordination. Source: Jornada, State.gov.

MEXICO–KOREA SUMMIT President Claudia Sheinbaum and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung met at Palacio Nacional on September 24 and agreed to deepen the relationship under a Joint Action Plan 2026–2030. Officials signed 17 memorandums covering economic and financial cooperation, development, academic mobility, culture, tourism, science and technology, intellectual property, agriculture, and security. Bilateral trade reached $29.7 billion in 2025; more than 2,000 Korean firms operate in Mexico. Lee called Mexico an “indispensable strategic partner.” The agenda links Korean industry to Plan México in autos, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, transport, electromobility, AI, digital government, aerospace, and defense. The two sides also discussed crude oil and critical minerals, revived a stalled investment-protection update, and arranged a $100 million Eximbank on-lending facility. Cultural items include exploring a K-pop culture center in Mexico and a Mexican cultural institute in Korea, marking 64 years of diplomatic ties. Implementation of the four-year action plan is the next step. Source: gob.mx

FED HIKE AND BANXICO HOLD On September 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federalfunds target by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and the median dot implies another move by year-end. Banxico on September 24 unanimously held its overnight rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, the level set when the easing cycle ended in May. The policy gap versus the Fed’s upper bound narrowed to about 250 basis points, a multi-year low. Banxico dropped earlier language that it expected to keep the rate unchanged for a prolonged period. Future decisions will track disinflation, the exchange-rate passthrough, slack, and expectations. The board stressed that Mexican conditions differ from the United States, so policy “would not have to react mechanically” to further Fed increases. Headline inflation was 3.42% in mid-September (up from 3.12% in July); core eased to 3.79%. Banxico still sees the 3% target in the fourth quarter of 2027, with risks biased to the upside as energy prices rebound. Source: Mexico Business

U.S.–CHINA TRADE TRUCE Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States and China agreed to extend their Busan trade truce from a November 10 expiry to January 10, buying time for a larger deal during Xi Jinping’s Washington state visit. Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed cutting tariffs on about $30 billion of goods each way, financial-services access, and farm purchases. Beijing is meeting a 25-million-ton soybean commitment but lagging a $17 billion pledge on other farm goods. Current average tariffs sit near 36.5% on Chinese goods into the United States and 31% the other way; a planned Chinese rare-earth export tightening is paused until January 10. At the White House, Xi argued that dialogue, peaceful coexistence, and regular military crisis channels can overcome the “Thucydides trap,” and he invited 100,000 young Americans to study in China. Trump cited “tremendous strides,” new market access for U.S. farmers, and talks on AI—“super intelligence.” Analysts call the two-month rollover “transactional theatre”: useful before U.S. midterms and amid the Iran war’s energy shock, but too short to settle AI export controls, Taiwan arms sales, or a $1 trillion-scale U.S. goods deficit with China. Source: NYT, Aljazeera, the Guardian

Legislative and Regulation Issues: FOREIGN TRADE

LOBBYING

TRANSPORT

SECOND RESOLUTION OF MODIFICATIONS TO THE GENERAL RULES OF FOREIGN TRADE FOR 2026 AND, ANNEXES 1, 2 AND 22 Presented by: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit

LAW ON OPENNESS AND TRANSPARENCY IN LOBBYING ACTIVITIES Presented by: Rep. Ricardo Monreal Ávila (Plur - MORENA)

Purpose: Decree that explains how importers prove customs value, how brokers and certified firms stay in the system, and how warehouses, carriers and NOM/sample operations are processed

Purpose: it would legalize and regulate congressional lobbying by forcing lobbyists onto a public roll, logging who met whom and what changed in the bill, banning gifts and immediate revolving-door work, and fining both sides when they stay off the books.

FEDERAL ROADS, BRIDGES, AND MOTOR TRANSPORT LAW, REGARDING ROAD SAFETY IN FEDERAL MOTOR TRANSPORT Presented by: Sen. Juan Antonio Martín del Campo Martín del Campo (Ags - PAN)

Status: 2026-09-22 - Published in the Official Gazette of the Federation

Status: 2026-09.23 – Published in the Official Gazette of the Federation Likelihood: High

Purpose: It is a road-safety bill to professionalize full-truck drivers, cap their hours, ban impaired driving with loss of the federal license, put forward cameras on commercial units, and tighten physical and electronic checks of weight and size on federal roads.

Status: 2026-09.23 – Published in the Official Gazette of the Federation Likelihood: Low

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION ARTICLES 82, 116, AND 122 OF THE CONSTITUTION, REGARDING SINGLE NATIONALITY FOR HOLDING THE OFFICES OF THE FEDERAL AND LOCAL EXECUTIVE POWERS Presented by: President Sheinbaum Purpose: To bar dual nationals from running for or holding Mexico’s top executive jobs, President, state governor, and Mexico City head of government—unless they give up the other nationality before candidate registration, and to keep that exclusive Mexican nationality in force for the whole term. Status: 22-09.2026, approved in the Chamber of Deputies, passed to the Senate

Likelihood: High