Weekly Report October 2nd, 2026
Hot Topics US-MEXICO TRADE NEGOTIATIONS
From Milwaukee, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard gave a speech on the G20 Ministerial Meeting. He mentioned that the G20 countries represent about 89% of world GDP, 77% of trade, and 66% of FDI. His position on the overall agenda for the Ministerial meeting was that the United States and the rest of the members are pushing for a “new normal” in trade, tariffs included. Forced labor and excess capacity, especially steel, dominated the agenda. Ministers backed a Milwaukee Framework to curb excess steel overcapacity: Origin and traceability are its core, and the agreed standard is melt and pour, which Ebrard said should help Mexican steel by blocking triangulation of "non-market economies". Minister Marcelo Ebrard met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on October 1st on the sidelines of the G20 Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Milwaukee to continue bilateral negotiations between Mexico and the United States. The meeting lasted nearly one hour and focused on advancing discussions and narrowing differences on outstanding trade issues. Following the meeting, Ebrard said both countries are moving closer to new agreements and that negotiations have continued through frequent bilateral contacts. He emphasized that Mexico is seeking to preserve its comparatively favorable access to the U.S. market as the global trade environment shifts toward greater use of tariffs and other trade measures. The negotiations take place as Mexico and the United States continue discussing tariffs affecting key Mexican exports and other bilateral trade issues connected to the broader USMCA review process. Minister Ebrard claims that Mexico remains in a more favorable position than other major U.S. trading partners and reiterated that talks with Greer are progressing toward resolving pending issues. The next bilateral round of negotiations is expected to take place in October after the previously planned September meeting was postponed. He argued, that Mexico pays less than China or Canada, that there has been progress on the negotiations, given that Mexico started the review facing 25% across the board, and yet it remains the largest exporter to the United States while paying the least duty. Section 232 relief on steel, aluminum, and autos is still open while Section 301 tariffs were not discussed. Finally, he mentioned future trade missions: the EU in spring 2027, a second trip to Canada, and likely India.
U.S. AMBASSADOR ON FUGITIVES AND BANK EXPOSURE Ambassador Ronald Johnson said the United States has handed Mexico more than 20 fugitives during the Trump administration, bringing the total returned since the start of the pandemic to more than 350. The cases cover ties to narcoterrorist organizations, murder, money laundering, kidnapping, attempted murder, assault, theft, and drug offenses. “When we work together, we send a clear message: no matter where they flee, they will be found and brought to justice,” he wrote. At an IRS Criminal Investigation forum in Mexico City, Johnson warned representatives of 40 commercial banks that institutions handling cartel money face isolation from the North American financial system: “Whoever touches “cartel money” stays stained and will have nowhere to hide.” The line fits a shift under Trump toward anti-money-laundering over seizures. Mexico’s Financial Intelligence Unit froze 24,622 accounts from October 2024 to August 2026, immobilizing 8.67 billion pesos, more than 70% tied to high-impact groups. The warning also sits against the 2025 FinCEN designations of CIBanco, Intercam, and Vector under the FEND Off Fentanyl Act, which led to CIBanco’s license revocation and a large fiduciary-asset migration. Source: El Economista, Mexico Business
Source: Secretaría de Economía, El Economista, Secretaría de Economía
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Hot Topics MORENA’S 2027 COORDINATORS Morena closed the designation of 17 state coordinators for the “defense of the transformation and national sovereignty” ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial races. They are the party leaders responsible for organizing the territorial structure and disseminating the party's political platform in each state. They are not formally candidates, although they are the ones likely to run in the 2027 gubernatorial elections. The last name, Cruz Pérez Cuéllar in Chihuahua, was set after the national election commission presented survey results in Mexico City. The role organizes the party and is widely read as the pre-candidate, but formal registration is still due by December. The slate: Nora Ruvalcaba (Aguascalientes), Julieta Ramírez (Baja California), Manuel Cota of the PVEM (Baja California Sur), Pablo Gutiérrez (Campeche), Cruz Pérez Cuéllar (Chihuahua), Rosa María Bayardo (Colima), Beatriz Mojica (Guerrero), Carlos Torres Piña (Michoacán), Jasmine Bugarín of the PVEM (Nayarit), Clara Luz Flores (Nuevo León), Santiago Nieto (Querétaro), Gino Segura (Quintana Roo), Eli César Cervantes (San Luis Potosí), Imelda Castro (Sinaloa), Lorenia Valles (Sonora), Ana Lilia Rivera (Tlaxcala), and Verónica Díaz Robles (Zacatecas). Several are senators on leave; Nieto is the former head of the Financial Intelligence Unit, and Pérez Cuéllar was mayor of Ciudad Juárez until June 2026. Alliance terms with PT and PVEM, and the rules for deputies and mayors, are still open.
Source: El Economista, El Heraldo
US–MEXICO CROSS-BORDER TRUCKING PRESSURES
CUSTOMS LAW REFORM The customs-law reform cleared the Chamber of Deputies’ Finance Commission on October 1, with three reservations, and goes to the floor next week. The main change lowers the threshold for a precautionary embargo on undervalued goods: the old trigger was undervaluation above 50%. Above 20%, the importer can substitute a cash deposit equal to the tax on the difference; below 20%, a deposit in a customs guarantee account. A unanimous reservation, from Morena’s Carol Antonio Altamirano, adds a fine of 50% to 100% of commercial value for fiscal huachicol in hydrocarbons and petroleum products, on top of existing Article 185 penalties, when required documents are not filed. A PAN proposal to suspend the customs agent’s license in those cases was rejected. Entry into force is pushed to January 1st, 2027. Specialists warns the lower embargo bar threatens an export boom $549 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 63% in two years. ANAM flagged 1,349 undervaluation cases in 2025 and more than 1,100 through August 2026. Comce Noreste, covering 46.7% of exports from Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, and Durango, says a slow customs house “is also a tariff”: yard saturation, hundreds of dollars a day per container, and line stoppages for maquiladoras. Fine collections already hit 2.99 billion pesos in the first half of 2026. Source: El Economista, (2)
Cross-border trucking between Mexico and the United States is facing tighter operating conditions as freight demand continues to grow. Industry representatives said stricter U.S. enforcement involving Mexican B-1 drivers, non-domiciled commercial licenses, and English-language requirements is reducing available driver capacity and increasing uncertainty for carriers operating across the border. Some Mexican companies have reportedly returned to transferring trailers to U.S. carriers at border crossings rather than continuing directly into the United States.Companies also cited higher fuel costs, greater customs scrutiny, and cargo theft as additional pressures on cross-border logistics. Cargo theft in the Bajío increased 11% year-on-year, with auto parts and electronics among the products most frequently targeted. The combination of tighter driver availability and higher operating requirements is occurring as manufacturing and trade volumes between both countries remain elevated. Source: FreightWaves
Legislative and Regulation Issues: FOREIGN TRADE
INVESTMENT
JUSTICE
DRAFT DECREE AMENDING AND ADDING VARIOUS PROVISIONS OF THE CUSTOMS LAW
DRAFT DECREE AMENDING, ADDING AND REPEALING VARIOUS PROVISIONS OF THE FOREIGN INVESTMENT LAW
Presented by: Federal Executive. Opinion of the Finance and Public Credit Committee, Chamber of Deputies.
Presented by: President Claudia Sheinbaum. Committees on Economy and Legislative Studies First.
DRAFT DECREE AMENDING, ADDING AND REPEALING VARIOUS PROVISIONS OF THE FEDERAL CRIMINAL CODE AND THE FEDERAL LAW FOR THE PROTECTION OF INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY
Purpose: Strengthen customs control against undervaluation of goods, without creating a new tax. Authorities may order a precautionary embargo even when the value gap is below 50 percent, and the exception for importers who had already posted a price-estimate guarantee is removed. In temporary and similar regimes, the gap that triggers a presumption of infringement falls from 50 percent to 20 percent versus identical or similar goods. The embargo may be substituted by a cash deposit of the tax difference above 20 percent, or by a customs guarantee account below 20 percent
Purpose: Replace the Commission’s open-ended power to block a deal “for national security” with a defined screening. A favorable resolution of the National Foreign Investment Commission is required when foreign capital, direct or indirect, exceeds 49 percent of a Mexican company, the company’s assets exceed a threshold the Commission will set by general resolution, and the company operates in a sensitive activity. Sensitive activities include energy, transport, health, communications, mining, data processing and storage, digital systems, aerospace and defense, and critical and dualuse technologies and others.
Reserves adopted. Article 185: for hydrocarbons and petroleum products, an additional fine of 50 to 100 percent of commercial value when information, documents or declarations are inaccurate, incomplete or false (“fiscal fuel smuggling”).
Reserves: The Commission grows from 10 to 13 members with voice and vote: National Defense, Navy, Security and Citizen Protection, and the Digital Transformation and Telecommunications Agency. Status: 2026-09-30 - Minute sent to the Chamber of Deputies.
Presented by: President Claudia Sheinbaum. Committees on Justice, Economy and Legislative Studies First.
Purpose: Purpose: Update criminal enforcement of copyright and industrial property and align it with USMCA and TRIPS. “Intent of profit” is replaced by “commercial scale,” meaning acts of trade or activity seeking an economic gain, or a competitive advantage for a business. New or tougher offenses cover reproduction, distribution, sale, signal decryption and circumvention of technological protection measures. Key Application: Institutional identity: after the committee rewrite, 1 to 5 years and 1,000 to 10,000 UMA for using or imitating, on a commercial scale, the graphic identity, domain or official document of a public institution in order to induce error. Status: 2026-09-30 - Minute sent to the Chamber of Deputies
Status: 2026-10-1 – Sent to the Board of Directors for plenary next week.
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