Weekly Report - 07.08.26

Weekly Report August 7th, 2026

Hot Topics US INTENSIFIES SECURITY PRESSURE THROUGH EXPANDED ACTIONS The United States has continued to expand its securityrelated actions toward Mexico, combining law enforcement measures against organized crime with operational decisions that have direct economic consequences. In recent days, the U.S. Department of Justice raised the reward for Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), announcing more than USD 100 million in total rewards for information leading to the capture of eight senior cartel members. U.S. authorities also revoked visas for dozens of relatives and associates linked to the CJNG as part of broader efforts to dismantle organizations designated as foreign terrorist groups.

Separately, the U.S. suspended official USDA inspection activities in Michoacán after receiving a threat against U.S. interests in the state. Because USDA inspectors certify compliance for avocado exports, the decision temporarily halted new export shipments, allowing only previously inspected fruit to be processed. Mexican authorities responded by announcing additional National Guard deployments, opening discussions with U.S. officials to restore inspections, and exploring the possibility of replacing U.S. inspectors with Mexico’s SENASICA personnel if necessary.

These developments illustrate that U.S. security policy toward Mexico is increasingly extending beyond traditional law enforcement into trade and supply chains.

The temporary disruption of avocado exports highlights how security concerns can quickly translate into commercial impacts.

Source: EL ECONOMISTA, MILENIO, EXCELSIOR,

MEXICO EXPANDS INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS WITH BRAZIL AND JAPAN The Mexican government continued strengthening its international engagement by deepening strategic partnerships beyond North America. Mexico and Brazil reactivated their Binational Commission after a threeyear hiatus, relaunching the countries’ main bilateral cooperation mechanism. The meeting resulted in the implementation phase of the two-year cooperation agreement between Pemex and Petrobras, and agreed to expand bilateral trade and investment, strengthen scientific and educational cooperation, and reaffirm their joint support for multilateral institutions.

Separately, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard met with Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi to discuss the ongoing USMCA review, the future of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TransPacific Partnership (CPTPP), and opportunities to deepen bilateral economic ties. Discussions also covered cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence, logistics, and resilient supply chains, while both sides reiterated their commitment to maintaining close dialogue and expanding Japanese investment in Mexico.

Sources: MILENIO, EL ECONOMISTA

BANXICO SIGNALS PROLONGED MONETARY PAUSE AMID PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY Banco de México kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% for a second consecutive meeting, signaling that monetary policy will remain restrictive for an extended period despite recent progress in reducing headline inflation. The decision reflects the central bank’s increasingly cautious stance as domestic inflation risks persist and external uncertainty continues to shape Mexico’s macroeconomic outlook.

At the same time, the central bank revised its inflation outlook, now expecting inflation to converge to its 3% target only by the fourth quarter of 2027, significantly later than previously projected. It also maintained that the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, citing persistent core inflation, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, exchange rate pressures, climate-related disruptions, and higher production costs.The decision suggests that borrowing costs in Mexico are likely to remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

Sources: EL FINANCIERO

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Hot Topics INVESTMENT RECOVERY REMAINS FRAGILE DESPITE PUBLIC SPENDING BOOST

TRADE TENSIONS PERSIST AS MEXICO REMAINS THE UNITED STATES’ TOP TRADING PARTNER Speaking at an event in Las Vegas, Trump argued that Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany have taken advantage of the U.S. economy and defended tariffs as a central pillar of his trade strategy.

The remarks come as Washington maintains broad tariff measures and prepares additional trade actions while negotiations over the USMCA review continue.

However, new U.S. Census Bureau data show that Mexico retained its position as the United States’ largest trading partner during the first half of 2026, with total bilateral goods trade reaching USD 493.7 billion, well ahead of Canada (USD 376.0 billion) and China (USD 184.8 billion). Mexican exports to the U.S. increased 13% year-over-year to USD 298.2 billion, while the country maintained a trade surplus of more than USD 102.5 billion. Mexico also moved from being the second- to the third-largest bilateral goods deficit for the United States, behind Vietnam and Taiwan.

The figures highlight the resilience of North American supply chains despite escalating political rhetoric and tariff pressures, reinforcing Mexico’s strategic role in the U.S. market and suggest that commercial integration continues to outweigh protectionist narratives.

Source: EL ECONOMISTA, UNO TV

Mexico’s gross fixed investment rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, marking a second consecutive monthly increase, but the recovery continues to rely almost entirely on public-sector spending.

Government investment surged 19.5%—its strongest growth in nearly two years—, while private investment slowed sharply to just 0.2%.

Analysts cautioned that the recent improvement is unlikely to represent a sustained trend. Much of the public spending has been linked to World Cup 2026, while private investors remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review, U.S. trade policy, and domestic security concerns. Despite recent gains, gross fixed investment remains 0.5% below year-earlier levels through the first five months of 2026, highlighting the continued challenges facing Mexico’s investment outlook.

Source: EL FINANCIERO

MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWN MEXICO’S TAX REVENUE

HITS

New data from the Ministry of Finance show that income tax (ISR) collections recorded their sharpest first-half decline in 17 years. During the first half of 2026, ISR collections totaled MXN 1.572 trillion, down 6.2% in real terms compared to the same period in 2025, marking the steepest first-semester decline since the 2009 global financial crisis; with manufacturingrelated ISR payments fell 15.75% year-over-year. While the number of taxpayers filing ISR returns increased, authorities attributed the revenue decline to lower annual tax payments from corporations.

The figures reinforce evidence that Mexico’s manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with employment contracting for 34 consecutive months.

Beyond affecting industrial production, weakness is now weighing on fiscal revenues, underscoring the sector’s importance to the broader economy.

Sources: EL CEO

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