Transform STL: Tackling Racial And Neighborhood Shifts, Facilitating Opportunities For Revitalizatio

TRANSFORM STL:

Tackling Racial And Neighborhood Shifts, Facilitating, Opportunities For Revitalization in St. Louis City Ness Sándoval

Professor of Demography and Sociology Saint Louis University December 19, 2023

Five Points 1.

Demographic Changes are Inevitable

2.

Families with Children are in Decline

3.

Saint Louis: A City of Four Distinct Regions

4.

Small losses can spark significant transformations

5.

TRANSFORM STL Source of Image: https://www.stltoday.com

The fundamental principle of Demography is that demographic transitions are an inevitable aspect of change, persisting irrespective of whether individuals recognize, acknowledge, or accept the underlying demographic realities and trends

METHODOLOGY AND DATA

Data • U.S. Census Bureau

– Decennial Census – American Community Survey • 1 Year and 5 Year Estimates

– Population Estimates

• National Center for Health Statistics • Crime Data for 2015-2019- St. Louis Police Department

1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE

Population Trends for Saint Louis City Population 900,000

Total 856,796

821,960

800,000

816,048

White

772,897

750,026

687,029

700,000

Black 622,236

POPULATION

600,000

575,238

500,000

453,085

451,770

396,685

400,000

351,189

350,518

348,189 319,294

301,578

300,000 190,524

200,000 104,978

100,000 14,125

0

1830

35,979

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880*

1890

1900

1910

1920 1930 1940 CENSUS YEAR

Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Population Trends for Saint Louis City Population

White

120%

Black 100%

97% 93%

92%

94%

94%

94%

94%

91%

89%

85%

80%

87% 82%

79%

POPULATION

71%

59%

60%

53%

50%

51% 43%

40%

45%

47%

49% 42%

43% 43%

41%

29%

20%

21% 11%

15%

0%

7%

1830

1840

1850

3%

1860

8%

6%

6%

6%

6%

1870

1880*

1890

1900

1910

13%

18%

9%

1920 1930 1940 CENSUS YEAR

Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE

1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE

Population Trends for Saint Louis City Foreign-born Population 140,000

Foreign-born

25%

Percent Foreign-born

20%

125,706

120,000

111,356 19% 18%

100,000

POPULATION

103,239

80,935

15%

80,000 13%

59,406

60,000

10%

10% 41,819

40,000

7%

7%

5%

20,000

19,543 4%

15,337 2%

0

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

6%

6%

26,479

1960 1970 CENSUS YEAR

Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

11,878

3%

1980

5%

23,011 17,611

10,034 3%

1990

2000

2010

2022

0%

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY

Saint Louis MSA and Counties 2022 Population

Population Change

Births (2022)

Deaths (2022)

Natural Population Change (2022)

International Migration (2022)

St. Charles County

413803

3292

4139

3791

348

724

2439

3163

Missouri

Lincoln County

63155

1501

773

596

177

-4

1280

1276

Missouri

Jefferson County

229336

1402

2399

2537

-138

59

1550

1609

Missouri

Warren County

37260

731

402

433

-31

0

742

742

Missouri

Franklin County

105879

551

1108

1338

-230

21

785

806

Illinois

Monroe County

35033

40

285

376

-91

6

147

153

Illinois

Clinton County

36909

23

383

401

-18

39

21

60

Illinois

Calhoun County

4360

-25

47

69

-22

0

-1

-1

Illinois

Bond County

16566

-67

144

197

-53

9

-15

-6

Illinois

Jersey County

21246

-124

205

322

-117

8

-7

1

Illinois

Macoupin County

44245

-300

429

640

-211

13

-89

-76

Illinois

Madison County

263864

-1034

2555

3233

-678

86

-329

-243

Illinois

St. Clair County

State

County

Missouri

Domestic Migration (2022) Net Migration (2022)

252671

-2351

2849

3023

-174

134

-2303

-2169

Missouri St. Louis city

286578

-6984

3752

3596

156

1168

-8419

-7251

Missouri

990414

-7813

10526

12158

-1632

2688

-8894

-6206

2801319

-11158

29996

32710

-2714

4951

-13093

-8142

St. Louis County

Saint Louis MSA

Source: Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for Counties in the United States: April 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

19

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY

Change in Household Type for Saint Louis City (2019-2022) 5,000

4,248

4,000

Black

4,293

White Non-Hispanic

3,000

Households

2,000

2,045 692

1,000

220

125

19

0 -393

-1,000 -2,000

-4,000 -5,000

-1,810

-2,203

-3,000

-168

-472

-45 -597 -1,642

-3,658

Total:

Family Households:

Married-Couple Family

Other Family:

Male Female Householder, No Householder, No Spouse Present Spouse Present Household Type

-3,878

-3,897

Nonfamily Households:

Householder Living Alone

Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Householder Not Living Alone

Change in Household Type by Relatives and Non-relatives for Saint Louis City (2019-2022) 5,000 Black

753

100 29

0

-1,170-1,276

-5,000

-4,496

Population

-5,633

-10,000

3,143

White Non-Hispanic

-734 -985

-37

-436 -291

-4,525

-4,534

-5,733

-6,283

-4,682

-5,287 -6,246

-8,912 -11,337 -12,055

-15,000 -16,019

-20,000

Total:

In Family Households:

In MarriedCouple Family:

Relatives

Nonrelatives

Relatives In Male Householder, No Spouse Present, Family: Household Type

Nonrelatives

In Female Householder, No Spouse Present, Family:

Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Relatives

Nonrelatives

In Nonfamily Households

2. FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN ARE IN DECLINE

There is a Significant Decline in Families with Children in Saint Louis City

Black Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022)

Change in Families with Children Under 18

1,000 0

-1,000

266

Above Poverty

Below Poverty

35 -214

-515 -1,546

-946

-2,336

-2,000 -4,828

-3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000

Families

Males

Females

Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Total

White Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022) 800

Above Poverty

Below Poverty

Change in Families with Children Under

600 400

639

570

200 0 -200

79 -455

-239 -317 -148

-400

-1,011

-600 -800 -1,000 -1,200

Families

Males

Females

Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Total

Total Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022) 500

Change in Families with Children Under

0 -500

45 -1,222

Above Poverty

69 -758

-872 -186

-1,000

Below Poverty

-2,125

-1,500 -2,000 -2,500

-3,533

-3,000 -3,500 -4,000 -4,500 -5,000

Families

Males

Females

Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Total

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY

Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of Families 50,000

2010

46,881

2022

45,000

Number of Families

40,000

38,431

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

6,093

6,551 3,589

Under .50

3,876

2,339

3,430 2,487

.50 to .74

.75 to .99

5,128

1.00 to 1.49

Source: U.S. Census 2010 2022, 1 Year ACS, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

6,709 3,655

1.50 to 1.99

2.00 and Over

3. SAINT LOUIS: A CITY OF FOUR DISTINCT REGIONS

https://www.stlmag.com/news/politics/how-one-slu-professor-is-rethinking-blighted-zip-codes/

Saint Louis City

Average Poverty Rate of Tracts 35% 30%

Average Poverty Rate

30%

24%

25% 20%

19%

15%

12%

10% 5% 0%

Unknown

Negative Momentum Stable Momentum Spatial Regime

Source: U.S. Census 2021 5 Year ACS Estimates, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Positive Momentum

Saint Louis City

Five Year Average Homicide Rate of Tracts 12 10

Homicide Rate Per 1,000

10 8 6 4 2

2

2 1

0

Unknown

Negative Momentum Stable Momentum Spatial Regime

Source: St Louis Police Data 2015-2019, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University

Positive Momentum

4. SMALL LOSSES CAN SPARK SIGNIFICANT TRANSFORMATIONS

Total Population Change from 2010 to 2021

Black Population Change from 2010 to 2021

White Population Change from 2010 to 2021

Black and White Majority Census Tracts in Saint Louis City

5. TRANSFORM STL

TRANSFORM STL • School Choice – SLPS & Charter vs.

Suburbs • Understand Migration – People move in and out • Urban Contested Space – Crime is down, but Neighborhood Crime?

Source of the Image: Justin Barr STLFromAbove

DECLINE IN FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN

What happens if there is a sustained decline in families within census tracts that have a history of population loss?

•

4k Potential Families in poverty?

•

17k Potential Families?

24k New Residents Moved into Saint Louis City

13k (54%) New Residents Moved into these Census Tracts

5k New Residents Moved into these Census Tracts From Another State

UNDERSTAND MIGRATION

New residents made the city their home

Residents left the city to find a new home

URBAN CONTESTED SPACES

CHANNGE: Crime, Housing, Affordability, and Nurturing Neighborhood Growth through Education

• Exploring the interconnection of micro-level crime patterns, unsafe contested spaces, affordable housing, and school options unveils a profound influence on migration and demographic trends in Saint Louis City.

Ness Sándoval ness.sandoval@slu.edu

Appendix A

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY

COMPARING WITH PEER CITIES: IT'S CONTEXTDEPENDENT