KeyInsights
Operationsremainstable,butconfidenceis constrainedbyuncertainty.
Investmentandemploymentdecisionsare becomingmorecautious.
Externalshocksareamplifyingcostpressures andoperationalrisks.
Strengtheningcrisisresponsemechanismswillbekey tosustainingbusinessresilience.
isholding,butsentimentisbecomingmorecautious.
Aclearmajority(57%)reportstableconditions,upfrom45%and31%,showingincreasingcaution. About34%reportimprovements,continuingadownwardtrendsince2023,from47%and58%. Only9%reportworseconditions,closeto8%lastperiod
Expectationssoftenasfewercompaniesanticipategrowthahead.
Aslightmajoritystillexpectstablebusinessconditions,indicatingastableoutlook.
Only31%expectimprovement,continuingadecliningtrendsince2023.
18%expectworseconditions,risingsignificantlyfrom6%inFall2025,showinggrowingdownside concerns.
Q2. Which business development does your company expect for the next twelve months?
Majorityanticipatemorechallenginglocaleconomicconditionsahead
Amajority(51%)expectmorechallenginglocaleconomicconditionsoverthenext12months
Only9%expectimprovement,downsharplyfrom21%and39%,showinga continuingaclear downwardtrend.
34%expecttorecalibratelocalinvestmentsoverthenexttwelvemonths. Onlyaquarter(25%)planhigherinvestments
31%expectstableinvestmentlevels,reflectingamoremeasuredapproach.
Localemploymentsoftensasmorefirmstakeacautiousapproach.
Amajority(53%)stillexpectstableemploymentlevels.
Onlyaquarter(25%)plantoincreasehiring,continuingadeclinesince2024.
22%anticipateadjustingworkforcelevelsdownward.
Costpressuresandglobaldisruptionsremainthetopbusinessrisks.
Energyprices(65%)remainthetopconcern,reflectingexposuretoglobal supplyshocksandgeopoliticaltensions.
Supplychaindisruptions(49%)andrawmaterialprices(47%)continueto weighonoperations.
Theconcentrationofrisksclearlyhighlightsstrongdependenceon externalmarketsandglobaldevelopments.
Q6. What are the biggest risks for your company’s economic development in the next twelve months?
Externalpressuresandresponsecapacityshapebusinessoutlook.
Whileoperationsremainstable,risingglobaltensionsandcostvolatilityare weighingonbusinessconfidence.
Companiesfacegrowingexposuretoenergypricemovementsandsupply chaindisruptionslinkedtoglobaldevelopments.
Thesetrendsunderscoretheneedforeffectivecoordinationandtimely policyresponsestomanageexternalshocks.
Q6.1. Do you see any further risks to the economic development of your company?
Geopoliticaltensions
EnergyandFuelCostPressures
CostPressures
FreightDisruptions
Governanceandbureaucraticinefficiencies
Laborandskillsconstraints
TaxAdministration
InfrastructureDelays
*Based on frequency of similar keyword mentions
Globalshocksshape outlook,affecting operationsand requiringresponsive policyaction.
Risingcostsdominateimpactoftradepolicydevelopments.
Tradepolicyimpactsarefeltprimarilythroughcostincreases(78%).
Persistentsupplychaindelayssuggestthatpolicychangescontinuetoaffectoperational efficiency,notjustpricing.
Only13%reportnonoticeableeffects,while25%facehigherregulatoryrequirements, indicatingthatmostcompaniesarealreadyadjustingtotrade‑relatedpressures.
Q7.1.
Externalgeopoliticalconflictemergesasmajorexternalshock.
Theoverwhelmingreportsonrisinginputcosts(85%)indicatesthattheconflictisexpectedtodirectly affectproductionandoperatingexpenses.
62%citesupplychaindisruptions,indicatingwidespreadoperationalchallenges.
Only1%reportnoimpact,thisshowsthattheconflictisviewedasrelevanttomostbusinesses,even beyondthosedirectlyoperatingintheregion.
Q7.2. What effects of the escalation in the Middle East conflict do you fear or already experience in your company’s business?
with
TheMiddleEast conflictistranslating intohighercostsand supplychain disruptionsformost businesses.
Firmsadaptthroughdiversificationwhilelimitingstructural adjustments.
Around70%areexpandingorplanningsuppliernetworks,supportingdiversification. Nearlyfourinfive(79%)areexploringnewsalesmarketstomitigateexternalrisks.
Structuralshiftsremainlimited,withthree-quarters(75%)notrelocatingandoverhalfnotincreasing investmentsorinventory.
Q8. What other measures have you taken due to geopolitics?
UStradepoliciesaffectfirmsindirectlythroughcosts,notmarketaccess.
Nearlyhalfofrespondents reportthatU.S.tradepolicyis notdirectlyrelevanttotheir business,indicatinglimited directexposure.
Amongaffectedfirms, responsesfavormaintaining thestatusquoorshifting focustodomesticand establishedmarkets,rather thanexpandingU.S. engagement.
Thesmallshareincreasing U.S.businesssuggeststhat tradepolicychangesare raisingcautionandcosts ratherthanimprovingmarket access.
U.S.tradepolicy impactremains limited,witheffects concentratedamong exposedfirms.
Q9. Which consequences is your company drawing in response to U.S. trade policy?
AboutOurSurvey
The AHK World Business Outlook is based on a regular DIHK survey of the member companies of the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad, delegations and representative offices (AHKs). The Spring 2026 Survey was conducted16Marchto10April2026.
It collects feedback from almost 3,200 German companies (68 from the Philippines in Spring 2026), branches and subsidiaries worldwide as well as companieswithclosetiestoGermany.
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AHKPhilippinen|German-PhilippineChamberofCommerceandIndustry,Inc.
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info@gpcci.org
www.philippinen.ahk.de
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