THE VERDICT.... THE VERDICT.... THE VERDICT....

A very open event from the outset, the betting market reflects that the €80,000 decider in the 2023 Con & Annie Kirby Memorial Stake still harbours that open complexion and a tipster’s nightmare, all six finalists will have adamant advocates for their chances of glory, and correctly so as all have viable claims within a myriad of possible scenarios.

However, there is no skirting around or dressing-up the glaring anomaly which struck all onlookers at the very moment that the draw was made for the final and that is the presence of a wide runner with the rails draw in trap 1 and the race, or at least the analysis of the form for the race, is near exclusively dictated by the prospect of how well Clonbrien Treaty may break, and what line he may take to the bend once he does.

There is no other starting point and for his supporters, study time for the final is minimal for they can very trustingly back him to repeat his fast break from last week’s semi-final and the Kirby is won before reaching the opening bend as runners in behind switch and brush together while seeking clear sight of the hare behind a leader that is moving across the track. We could leave it at that and toss a coin for the places but as we all know, racing is much more complicated, and this commentator has settled on a different scenario. However, what we have seen from the hugely exciting Clonbrien Treaty is an improving pup as the youngest in the final. He has gotten better each week, found an improved break last week, and his current upward trajectory means that he is a worthy final favourite, if indeed the market falls that way as the build-up progresses. If he’s your fancy, do not let this column sway you to anything different!

Excepting last week’s flash break and looking at more average breaking over the Kirby, Clonbrien Treaty and his trap 2 kennel companion Hovex Tommy have not been all that far apart in starting terms and unless one very much out-breaks the other, there is a strong possibility of an early bump between the travelling companions. In that scenario, the race opens up for the runners outside and that’s the route this tentative tipping endeavour is going to take.

If running independently, Hovex Tommy would chart a true line from trap 2 and runners outside, like Scaglietti in trap 3, will hope that he can block any outward move from Clonbrien Treaty. Not an obvious early pacer at 525 yards, Scaglietti is not totally devoid in that department either and but for a brush to his hind quarters, would have turned very close to the fast-trapping Gaytime Hugo last week. Trap 3 in itself suits the Guilfoyle charge, and he is a big player if he can secure clear passage and becomes a very big player if fast enough away to command the rails ahead of a bumping duo to his inside!

To his outside in trap 4 is the third Graham Holland finalist and for this pundit, his kennel’s best chance in

Gaytime Hugo. His improvement last week wasn’t all just a faster break. When examined, his reaction time was that of many of his rivals, but he got his stride working from the moment he touched the sand, and even more crucially in terms of this final, charted a true line to the bend. His repeat draw in trap 4 along with a pitch outside a runner who won’t step right, and inside a runner who won’t step left, offers highly plausible claims for clear passage and if as swift to perfect his first stride again this week, a repeat of his semi performance can get the job done.

It is impossible not be a Ryhope Beach fan for anyone who witnessed his career start at Tralee, and he confirmed that promise in the Kirby, most obviously in his 28.05 quarterfinal victory. That’s how good he is, and Michael O’Donovan has realistic claims for a second Kirby title now, however, his path to glory looks as likely as any to involve traffic problems. With sharp rivals on either side, he may be rolling the dice for clear passage entering a first bend where inside runners could well be moving into his path. He must somehow reach the top of the backstraight within reasonable striking range but if so, he will fly from halfway with a late bid assured.

This commentator would assert that the most natural 525-yard racer in the final is trap 6 runner Bogger Lucky. From a kennel that has become an ever-increasing influence on the elite scene in recent seasons, Liam Peacock’s finalist has a highly suitable draw in the context of this race and though he has not yet matched the times of his final rivals, possesses one crucial weapon in his bid for glory, early pace that might just see him turn in front. That is the only way he can win this race but if all began on level terms, he is the most likely leader. He must get it all right at boxes and sweep across the field entering the turn while skipping clear of bumping rivals, do not rule it out!

A wild swing at the way the final pans-out goes like this………

A largely level break sees Clonbrien Treaty and Hovex Tommy rubbing shoulders in an overall movement towards the middle of the track which also affects Scaglietti who just doesn’t break swiftly enough to avoid the crowding. With space to reach full gallop, Gaytime Hugo edges clear of those runners to his inside approaching the first bend and with command of the rails, he contests the lead with Bogger Lucky who just shows in front while failing to shut the door on Hugo.

In behind, Clonbrien Treaty retains command of the rail having had his outward move blocked but the inside runners have ceded third position to Ryhope Beach who now has the best opportunity to target a late challenge at the pacesetters. However, with Gaytime Hugo holding the inside line at the closing bends while asserting in his battle with Bogger Lucky, the winner has flown and Ryhope Beach settles for second when overhauling Bogger Lucky close home behind the Kirby winner Gaytime Hugo. Now you have a go! Selection: 4-5-6

1 2 3 4 5 6