Defla%ng Housing Bubble Comments by Christopher Whalen to the Global Interdependence Center March 11, 2014 | Paris
Have US Home Prices Recovered? • US home prices up 12% in last year na%onally to roughly 2004 levels aKer rising for 23 consecu%ve months since start of 2012 (CoreLogic) • Between 20-‐30% of all US homes remain “under water,” crea%ng supply pressures that are pushing prices higher in most aUrac%ve markets • Mortgage lending volumes and loan applica%ons are severely depressed due to new regula%on, Basel III capital rules and other factors
0.00%
-‐5.00%
-‐10.00%
-‐15.00%
-‐20.00%
Source: CoreLogic 1-‐Mar-‐13
1-‐Jan-‐12
1-‐Nov-‐10
1-‐Sep-‐09
1-‐Jul-‐08
1-‐May-‐07
1-‐Mar-‐06
1-‐Jan-‐05
1-‐Nov-‐03
1-‐Sep-‐02
1-‐Jul-‐01
1-‐May-‐00
1-‐Mar-‐99
1-‐Jan-‐98
1-‐Nov-‐96
1-‐Sep-‐95
1-‐Jul-‐94
1-‐May-‐93
1-‐Mar-‐92
1-‐Jan-‐91
1-‐Nov-‐89
1-‐Sep-‐88
1-‐Jul-‐87
1-‐May-‐86
1-‐Mar-‐85
1-‐Jan-‐84
1-‐Nov-‐82
1-‐Sep-‐81
1-‐Jul-‐80
1-‐May-‐79
1-‐Mar-‐78
1-‐Jan-‐77
Home Price Apprecia%on (%)
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
Source: FDIC 2013:Q4
2013:Q1
2012:Q2
2011:Q3
2010:Q4
2010:Q1
2009:Q2
2008:Q3
2007:Q4
2007:Q1
2006:Q2
2005:Q3
2004:Q4
2004:Q1
2003:Q2
2002:Q3
2001:Q4
2001:Q1
2000:Q2
1999:Q3
1998:Q4
1998:Q1
1997:Q2
1996:Q3
1995:Q4
1995:Q1
1994:Q2
1993:Q3
1992:Q4
1992:Q1
1991:Q2
1990:Q3
1-‐4 Family Loans Held by Banks ($M) 3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1990:Q2 1990:Q4 1991:Q2 1991:Q4 1992:Q2 1992:Q4 1993:Q2 1993:Q4 1994:Q2 1994:Q4 1995:Q2 1995:Q4 1996:Q2 1996:Q4 1997:Q2 1997:Q4 1998:Q2 1998:Q4 1999:Q2 1999:Q4 2000:Q2 2000:Q4 2001:Q2 2001:Q4 2002:Q2 2002:Q4 2003:Q2 2003:Q4 2004:Q2 2004:Q4 2005:Q2 2005:Q4 2006:Q2 2006:Q4 2007:Q2 2007:Q4 2008:Q2 2008:Q4 2009:Q2 2009:Q4 2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q2 2011:Q4 2012:Q2 2012:Q4 2013:Q2 2013:Q4
Non-‐Performing Loans ($M) 120,000
30-‐89 days past due 100,000
90 days or more past due
In nonaccrual status
Source: FDIC 80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Contact Informa%on: R.C. Whalen + 1 212-‐644-‐8969 (O) + 1 914-‐645-‐5304 (M) chris@rcwhalen.com www.rcwhalen.com