The ICT Industry and the Economy Presentation to Global Interdependence Center Southwest Economic Summit Phoenix, Arizona February 24, 2014
Paul Thomas Chief Economist Intel Corporation
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Risk Factors Today’s presentations contain forward-looking statements. All statements made that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our most recent Earnings Release and our most recent Form 10-Q or 10-K filing available on our website for more information on the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ.
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Outline • World Economic Growth Doomed to Slow? • Where’s the ICT Productivity Boost and Are PCs Dying? • Singularity or Not, Are We Riding a Wave? • Consumer Paradise AND Technological Unemployment? • Can Our Public and Private Institutions Keep Up?
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
World Economic Growth Doomed to Slow?
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Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds Robert J. Gordon NBER Working Paper No. 18315 Issued in August 2012
MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Where’s the ICT Productivity Boost and Are PCs Dying?
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"You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.“ (Robert Solow, "We'd better watch out", New York Times Book Review, July 12, 1987, page 36.)
The Guardian, Thursday 6 February 2014
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Unit Worldwide Sales for Desktops, Notebooks, Servers, Tablets, and Cell Phones, 1995-2013 (000s) 1,400,000 1,200,000
DT NB SV TAB SP NSP
1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1996
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1998
2000
2002
2004
MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
2006
2008
2010
2012
Singularity or Not, Are We Riding a Wave?
“I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords.” Ken Jennings
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Consumer Paradise AND Technological Unemployment? “None of the kids in my country want to learn about PCs. They are only interested in tablets and smartphones!” said the CEO of an ICT company in Emerging EMEA. I replied, “Will you want to hire them?” “No,” he said. “Neither will we, “ I agreed. “… the career advice that Google chief economist Hal Varian frequently gives: seek to be an indispensable complement to something that’s getting cheap and plentiful.” Brynjolfsson & McAfee, page 199.
New York Review of Books
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Consumer Paradise AND Technological Unemployment? “None of the kids in my country want to learn about PCs. They are only interested in tablets and smartphones!” said the CEO of an ICT company in Emerging EMEA. I replied, “Will you want to hire them?” “No,” he said. “Neither will we, “ I agreed. “… the career advice that Google chief economist Hal Varian frequently gives: seek to be an indispensable complement to something that’s getting cheap and plentiful.” Brynjolfsson & McAfee, page 199.
New York Review of Books
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting
Can Our Public and Private Institutions Keep Up? The precautionary principle or precautionary approach states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle
DECEMBER 2, 2013 Lant Pritchett on Education in Poor Countries Lant Pritchett Hosted by Russ Roberts Lant Pritchett of Harvard University and author of The Rebirth of Education talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in the book. Pritchett argues that increases in years of schooling for students in poor countries do not translate into gains in education, learning, or achievement. ttp:// www.econtalk.org/archives/education/
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MMBP – Market Sizing & Forecasting