Ted Chu Nov 0905

Emerging China: Strength and Weakness

Ted Chu November 9, 2005

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Real GDP per capita (1970 = 1) 22 20

China

Japan

Germany

India

Brazil

United States

Forecast

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Total Motor Vehicle Sales (1970 – 2011)

Millions 12

Forecast

10 China 8

Japan

6

Germany

4

Brazil

2

Russia India

0 70

72 74

Global Market & Industry Analysis

76 78 80 82

84 86

88 90 92

94

96 98 00

02

04 06 08 10 12

China’s unexpected demand surge was a big reason for doubling oil prices from $30 in 2002 to $60 in 2005 Growth in world oil demand From 2002 to 2004 (% of total growth) Figures on graph show millions of barrels per day (annual average) World total: 4.09 million barrels per day Middle East 0.18 4.4%

Rest of the world 0.34 8.3%

Oil imports as % of Global Total North America 1.25 30.6%

Developing Asia 0.60 14.7%

China 1.41 34.5%

(2004) China

6.3

Japan

11.3

USA

26.9

Europe 0.31 7.6%

Source: IEA - Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug 11, 2005)

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Trade (Exports+Imports) Share of GDP 70%

60%

China

United States

Germany

Japan

Brazil

India

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: IMF, national data / Haver Analytics

• •

Rapid growth is a reflection of China’s openness Also a reflection of underdeveloped domestic demand

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Globalization of Manufacturing Regional Architecture of Personal Computer Production China Chinaand andASEAN: ASEAN: Standardized Standardized peripheral peripheralequipment, equipment, low-end manufacturing low-end manufacturing

United UnitedStates: States: Core systems Core systems software, software,specialized specialized chip design chip design

United UnitedStates: States: Japan: Japan: Core systems Core systems Key design Keycomponents components design software, specialized software, specialized and manufacturing and manufacturing chip chipdesign design Singapore, Singapore,South SouthKorea, Korea, Taiwan: Taiwan: Peripheral Peripheralequipment equipmentdesign design and semiconductor chip and semiconductor chip manufacturing manufacturing

•

China is a low-end link in the global supply chain

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Source: Institute for the Future

Manufacturing Jobs: From US to China?

Manufacturing jobs in China: 54m in 1994, 30m in 2004 Global Market & Industry Analysis

China’s reserves and U.S. trade deficits Billion, US$ 900

300% U.S. Trade Balance: Rest of the World

700

U.S. Trade Balance: China(Mainland) + HK 250%

China (Mainland): Foreign Exchange Reserves (EOP)

500

China+HK's share in U.S. Trade Balance

300

200%

100 150% -100 -300

100%

-500 50% -700 32%

28%

31%

34%

41%

33%

25%

-900 1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

21%

22%

24%

24%

2000

2001

2002

2003

25%

26% 0%

2004 2005(e)

Source:People's Bank of China, U.S. Census Bureau / Haver Analytics

Global Market & Industry Analysis

The same story of Japan in the 80s Billion, US$ 100

400%

350% 50 300% 0 250%

-50

200% U.S. Trade Balance: Rest of the World 150%

U.S. Trade Balance: Japan

-100

Japan: Foreign Exchange Reserves (EOP) 100%

Japan's share in U.S. Trade Balance -150 58% 37% -200 1978

31% 1979

41% 1980

50% 53% 34%

1981

1982

1983

30% 1984

37%

40%

37% 0%

1985

1986

1987

Source: IMF, U.S. Census Bureau / Haver Analytics

Global Market & Industry Analysis

American exports to China is growing fast with much potential ahead • In 2004, U.S. exports to China totaled $35 billion, nearly double the total for 2001. In fact, from 2001 to 2004, U.S. exports to China increased nearly eight times faster than U.S. exports to the rest of the world. As a result, China rose from our ninth largest export market in 2001 to our fifth largest export market in 2004. During that same time, of course, China's exports to the United States (and to the rest of the world) have also exploded.

In 2004, imports from China totaled $197 billion, nearly double the total for 2001, and China is now the United States' second largest supplier.

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Global Market & Industry Analysis

-1.0 3/10/2005

3/10/2004

3/10/2003

3/10/2002

3/10/2001

3/10/2000

3/10/1999

3/10/1998

3/10/1997

3/10/1996

3/10/1995

3.0

3/10/1994

0.5

3/10/1993

1.0

3/10/1992

1.5

3/10/1991

Blue Chip

3/10/1990

Mar-05

Mar-04

Mar-03

Mar-02

Mar-01

Mar-00

Mar-99

Mar-98

Mar-97

3.0

Mar-96

Mar-95

Mar-94

Mar-93

Mar-92

Mar-91

Mar-90

The Sharp Decline of Term Premium: Fed creditability or China?

2.5

Federal Reserve Board paper

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.0 0.5

-0.5

0.0

Source: MacroAdvisors

China: What Westerners think they know • • • •

Fast GDP growth Industrialization/urbanization High savings rate Cheap labor: strong exports

• • • •

Widening inequalities Environmental pollution Overinvestment Mercantilist policies: low RMB

• • •

Strong FDI inflows Surging demand for energy Rising education

• • •

Serious IPR issues Aggressive grab of assets Rapidly aging population

• • •

Dictator control: stability WTO market opening Rising economic power

• • •

Human rights violations Corruption/financial sector mess Rising military threat/ideological conflict

Global Market & Industry Analysis

The conventional wisdom of China • China’s chief competitive advantage is its cheap labor – 200 million surplus labor – China has manipulated its currency to keep its costs low

• China will get old before it gets rich – By 2020, the demographic ratio will be the worst in the world

• China is a communist dictator state – Hence its goals are at odds with the democratic West

Like the image of the dragon, this image of China that provokes fear and awe does not exist in reality Global Market & Industry Analysis

Costs and Competitiveness Expensive and Competitive United States United Kingdom Australia

Expensive and Uncompetitive Germany Italy Japan

South Korea

Inexpensive and Competitive China, India, Thailand Romania, Czech Rep. Russia, South Africa

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Inexpensive and Uncompetitive Most African countries Argentina, Peru, Uruguay

The Schumpeterian World

Global Market & Industry Analysis

New Meiji: China’s massive import of ideas • • • • • • •

International accounting standards British, U.S., and Hong Kong security laws French military acquisition systems A central bank modeled after the Fed Exchange rate system modeled after Singapore Regulation for foreign portfolio investment like Taiwan Environmental regulations after Western Europe

• The elite has adopted English as their second language • Education abroad is comparable to the Romans turning over their children to the Greeks • First and foremost, China views the U.S. as the role model

Source: Rand

Global Market & Industry Analysis

China’s Global Integration and Resistance China

Ideas Ideas “Spiritual “Spiritualpollution” pollution”

Exports Exports FX, market FX, marketopening opening Anti-dumping Anti-dumping

Foreign ForeignDirect DirectInvestment Investment Intellectual property Intellectual propertyrights rights Market Marketopening opening

International Internationalthreat threat Hunger for energy Hunger for energy rising risingmilitary militarypower power

Barriers Barriers Human Humanmovement movement Language Language/ /Cultural Cultural Special Specialinterest interestgroups groups National interest National interest

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Rest of the world

Conclusions • China’s strength is not cheap labor, but its openness • China’s weakness is its current condition • What determines China’s future is not demographics or natural resources, but its adoption of better ideas • China represents a challenge to the U.S. that is fundamentally different from the Soviets or Japan

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Knowledge Imports and Goods Exports

Knowledge Knowledge“Imports”: “Imports”: U.S., Japan, and U.S., Japan, andWestern Western Europe are sources Europe are sourcesofofknowknowhow that China draws upon how that China draws upon

Energy Energy/ /Commodity Commodity“Imports”: “Imports”: Middle East, Canada, Russia, Middle East, Canada, Russia,Latin Latin America America

Global Market & Industry Analysis

Goods Goods“Exports”: “Exports”: China exports China exportsback, back, manufactured goods manufactured goodstotothe the U.S., Japan, Western Europe U.S., Japan, Western Europe as aswell wellas asthe therest restofofthe theworld. world.

•

Capital and knowledge (HR and technology) flow to the best managed places,

•

Increasing global economic growth potential

•

Providing discipline on badly managed places

•

This is happening on regional, national, provincial, and corporate levels